Steamer Projects: New York Mets Prospects

Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the New York Mets.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Mets or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Chicago AL / Miami / Minnesota / San Francisco / Seattle / Toronto.

Steamer Projections: Mets Batting Prospects
Below are the current 2014 projections for select Mets batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers) for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age POS PA BB% K% BABIP wRC+ BsR Off Def* WAR
2 Travis d’Arnaud 25 C 450 8.3% 18.8% .289 108 0 4 8 2.9
10 Wilmer Flores 22 3B 550 4.8% 14.2% .281 92 0 -5 2 1.6
6 Kevin Plawecki 23 C 450 5.1% 12.6% .247 68 0 -16 8 0.7
11 Dilson Herrera 20 2B 550 4.7% 22.9% .250 47 0 -33 2 -1.3
14 Brandon Nimmo 21 CF 550 7.2% 28.3% .261 46 0 -34 2 -1.4
9 Gavin Cecchini 20 SS 550 3.5% 16.4% .219 24 0 -47 6 -2.4
4 Amed Rosario 18 SS 550 2.9% 18.4% .208 19 0 -50 6 -2.8

Steamer Projections: Mets Pitching Prospects
Below are the 2014 projections for select Mets pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR, which has been calculated by using kwERA — that is, an ERA estimator which utilizes only strikeouts and walks — so as to remove the vagaries of park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age Hand IP K% BB% kwERA kwERA- WAR
1 Noah Syndergaard 21 RHP 150 24.2% 9.4% 3.53 91 2.6
5 Rafael Montero 23 RHP 150 19.8% 7.1% 3.79 98 2.1
12 Michael Fulmer 21 RHP 150 21.2% 11.8% 4.18 108 1.3
13 Domingo Tapia 22 RHP 150 22.0% 14.4% 4.40 114 0.9
7 Jacob Degrom 26 RHP 150 16.0% 8.5% 4.41 114 0.9
15 Vic Black 26 RHP 50 25.9% 11.8% 3.62 93 0.8
8 Steven Matz 23 LHP 150 18.4% 12.0% 4.54 117 0.7

Notes
• Catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud‘s 2013 season wasn’t a rousing success. A broken foot in mid-April limited his minor-league at-bats. When he finally did receive a promotion to the majors (in August), he proceeded only to record a 60 wRC+. The Steamer projection here appears more influenced by other factors, however. Like the plate discipline d’Arnaud exhibited, for example. And the minor-league home-run total, for other example. And the overall offensive ability relative to the catcher positional adjustment, finally.

Wilmer Flores recorded nearly 500 pretty strong plate appearances at Triple-A Las Vegas as just a 21-year-old this past season before earning an August promotion to the parent club — and, while not overwhelming, his offensive projection here (92 wRC+) is rather a strong one for such a young player. It’s Flores’ defensive home which continues to be the question. Steamer actually produces a slightly above-average UZR figure for Flores at third base — largely based, that, on the slightly above-average UZR Flores recorded at third base in 2013. Probably better, at this point, to trust the scouting reports than such a limited sample.

• It’s entirely possible that, because he’s frequently sans clue, that the author has calculated the WAR projections for both Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard incorrectly. Even if that is the case, however, the raw strikeout and walk rates produced by Steamer for the right-handed pair are rather encouraging. Here, for example, is the complete list of pitchers from the past three seasons who threw more than 100 innings and also, like this hypothetical version of Noah Syndergaard, recorded strikeout rates in 23%-25% range and walk rates in 8%-10% one:

Name Team Season G GS IP K% BB% xFIP- WAR
Justin Verlander Tigers 2013 34 34 218.1 23.5% 8.1% 92 5.2
Tim Lincecum Giants 2011 33 33 217.0 24.4% 9.6% 87 3.6
Justin Masterson Indians 2013 32 29 193.0 24.3% 9.5% 84 3.4
Lance Lynn Cardinals 2013 33 33 201.2 23.1% 8.9% 97 3.3
Clay Buchholz Red Sox 2013 16 16 108.1 23.1% 8.7% 86 3.2
Francisco Liriano Pirates 2013 26 26 161.0 24.5% 9.5% 83 3.1
Gio Gonzalez Nationals 2013 32 32 195.2 23.4% 9.3% 93 3.1
Jeff Samardzija Cubs 2013 33 33 213.2 23.4% 8.5% 92 2.8
Lance Lynn Cardinals 2012 35 29 176.0 24.2% 8.6% 92 2.7
Yovani Gallardo Brewers 2012 33 33 204.0 23.7% 9.4% 91 2.3
Erik Bedard - – - 2011 24 24 129.1 23.1% 8.9% 88 2.1
Tyson Ross Padres 2013 35 16 125.0 23.6% 8.7% 91 1.6
Carlos Villanueva Blue Jays 2012 38 16 125.1 23.4% 8.8% 99 0.6
Average 31 27 174.3 23.7% 9.0% 90 2.8



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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.

6 Responses to “Steamer Projects: New York Mets Prospects”

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  1. Mr. Big Swinging D says:

    The TDA projection is encouraging.

    Would be great to see him hit 2.9 WAR in his first full season not only from a performance standpoint but also means he stayed healthy all or most of the whole year.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Alex Anthopolous says:

    Mets, you’re welcome.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. J. Cross says:

    Steamer loves Syndergaard, no question. I’m going to be doubly disappointed if he’s a dud.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. NYM72382 says:

    So a New york team that is well below league average in payroll is keeping down guys that could contribute to wins this year because they want to save one eyar of arbitration??? I get if you are the marlins/pirates/etc….but the mets should easily be able to afford the extra year!

    But no we want to waste 4 yrs @ 15 mil per on a strikeout machine in granderson. SMH

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. NYM72382 says:

    Degrom is 26! what are we waiting for??? Farnsworth and dice K are so vaulable in our bullpen we can’t bring up Degrom?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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