Steamer Projects: Philadelphia Phillies Prospects

Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Philadelphia Phillies.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Phillies or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Baltimore / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Colorado / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto.

Steamer Projections: Philadelphia Batting Prospects
Below are the current 2014 projections for select Philadelphia batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers) for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age POS PA BB% K% BABIP wRC+ BsR Off Def* WAR
1 Maikel Franco 21 3B 550 4.5% 13.9% .280 97 0 -2 2 1.9
10 Tommy Joseph 22 C 450 5.5% 19.8% .267 81 0 -10 8 1.4
9 Cesar Hernandez 24 2B/CF 550 5.9% 16.0% .319 85 -1 -9 1 1.0
7 Aaron Altherr 23 OF 550 4.9% 25.4% .271 53 0 -29 -2 -1.4
8 Roman Quinn 21 SS 550 4.5% 21.3% .247 40 -1 -37 6 -1.4
3 J.P. Crawford 19 SS 550 4.6% 15.9% .235 38 0 -39 6 -1.5
11 Andrew Knapp 22 C 450 4.1% 23.2% .213 20 0 -41 8 -1.9
6 Carlos Tocci 18 CF 550 3.4% 18.4% .237 31 0 -43 2 -2.4
12 Dylan Cozens 20 RF 550 4.6% 23.9% .221 31 0 -43 -6 -3.2

Steamer Projections: Philadelphia Pitching Prospects
Below are the 2014 projections for select Philadelphia pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR, which has been calculated by using kwERA — that is, an ERA estimator which utilizes only strikeouts and walks — so as to remove the vagaries of park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age Hand IP K% BB% kwERA kwERA- WAR
5 Severino Gonzalez 21 RHP 150 18.4% 7.5% 4.00 103 1.6
15 Adam Morgan 24 LHP 150 18.1% 9.1% 4.23 109 1.2
2 Jesse Biddle 22 LHP 150 23.3% 14.6% 4.27 110 1.2
14 Shane Watson 20 RHP 150 10.8% 8.4% 5.02 130 -0.1

Notes
• The reader will note that, as mentioned above, the defensive projections for the field-playing prospects here are, in most cases, a product merely of the positional adjustment that corresponds with that player’s listed position and do not generally include an estimate of runs saved. Which is to say: owing to their defensive reputations (i.e. probably below-average, in both cases), Maikel Franco and Tommy Joseph are likely not quite as valuable yet as the figures here would otherwise indicate.

• That said, the reader should also note how (a) Maikel Franco is projected to hit almost like an average major-leaguer and (b) is entering just his age-21 season and how (c) there are very few hitters who hit like average major-leaguers at age 21 and that (d) most of the players who do produce league-average offense at age 21 produce better than league-average offense in their age-22 and -23 and -24 seasons, generally.

• It is entirely possible that, given an opportunity to face major-league opposition in a starting capacity, that left-hander Jesse Biddle would record strikeout and walk rates of 23.3% and 14.6%, respectively. What’s less likely is that Phillies management would allow him to walk nearly 15% of the batters he faced over 150 innings. Because that would require a prohibitively high quantity of pitches. More than most clubs would allow a 22-year-old to throw, probably. The innings totals here are merely for demonstration purposes only, is the point.




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One Response to “Steamer Projects: Philadelphia Phillies Prospects”

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  1. not buster posey says:

    where is the dayncast?

    Vote -1 Vote +1