Steamer Projects: San Diego Padres Prospects

Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the San Diego Padres.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Padres or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Chicago AL / Miami / Minnesota / New York NL / San Francisco / Seattle / Toronto.

Steamer Projections: San Diego Batting Prospects
Below are the current 2014 projections for select San Diego batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers) for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age POS PA BB% K% BABIP wRC+ BsR Off Def* WAR
1 Austin Hedges 21 C 450 6.0% 19.2% .267 72 0 -14 8 0.9
15 Cory Spangenberg 23 2B 550 5.7% 21.1% .302 77 0 -14 2 0.6
14 Reymond Fuentes 23 OF 550 7.4% 22.3% .304 79 0 -13 0 0.6
10 Jace Peterson 24 SS 550 6.8% 13.9% .253 64 0 -22 6 0.2
5 Rymer Liriano 23 RF 550 6.3% 22.8% .291 79 0 -13 -6 -0.1
7 Hunter Renfroe 22 RF 550 4.0% 26.2% .233 36 0 -40 -6 -2.9

Steamer Projections: San Diego Pitching Prospects
Below are the 2014 projections for select San Diego pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR, which has been calculated by using kwERA — that is, an ERA estimator which utilizes only strikeouts and walks — so as to remove the vagaries of park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age Hand IP K% BB% kwERA kwERA- WAR
2 Matthew Wisler 21 RHP 150 21.7% 8.9% 3.77 98 2.1
4 Casey Kelly 24 RHP 150 20.9% 8.3% 3.80 98 2.0
6 Keyvius Sampson 23 RHP 150 22.4% 13.0% 4.18 108 1.3
11 Burch Smith 24 RHP 50 26.2% 8.0% 3.13 81 1.2
9 Zach Eflin 20 RHP 150 18.2% 10.0% 4.33 112 1.0
3 Max Fried 20 LHP 150 20.2% 14.2% 4.59 119 0.6
13 Walker Weickel 20 RHP 150 17.7% 11.9% 4.61 119 0.5
8 Joe Ross 21 RHP 150 13.7% 11.2% 5.01 129 -0.1

• As noted in the recent post concerning the ZiPS projections for San Diego, it appears to be the case here, as well, that both (a) the club has some talent at the minor-league level, but also (b) little of it seems likely to make an impact with the parent club in 2014. Top-ranked Austin Hedges is probably the prospect most capable of producing. Opportunities will be limited, however, due to the presence both of Yasmani Grandal and Nick Hundley in the majors.

• Right-handers Matthew Wisler and Casey Kelly are both well-acquitted by Steamer. The former has been excellent in his two full professional seasons; the latter has also produced generally above-average numbers. Of immediate concern regarding Kelly, however, is his health: he missed all of 2013 due to Tommy John surgery.

• Not included here, but of some interest for the substance of his Steamer projection, is left-hander Juan Oramas. As a 23-year-old at Double-A this past year, he recorded strikeout and walk rates of 28.0% and 7.0%, respectively, in 12 starts and 55.2 innings. His projections for 2014 (prorated to 150 innings): 20.1% K, 9.4% BB, 104 kwERA-, 1.6 WAR.

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2 years 9 months ago

Burch Smith as a reliever and Keyvius Sampson as a starter? I think the Padres see Smith as a starter for now and Keyvius is the one that’s been moved to the bullpen.

2 years 9 months ago

You guys know that Casey Kelly had TJ surgery and can’t pitch until around June, right? And Juan Pablo Oramas also had TJ surgery and the performance last year in AA was his first pitching since the surgery, right? And that Burch Smith was a starter on the big club last year, while Sampson hasn’t been to the show yet?

And that since Burch Smith was the sixth starter (Robbie Erlin was the fifth) last year before Josh Johnson was signed and the Padres have two other TJ surgery pitchers with major league experience, Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland, coming back ready to pitch along with experienced starter Tim Stauffer, used in long relief last year, the Padres will have no need for minor league pitching help?

Maybe other clubs will need to dip into their minors for pitching help, but the Padres are more likely to be stashing experienced major league starters in the minors, because they don’t have room in the rotation for everybody. As far as the hitters are concerned, with two catchers, an all star shortstop, too many outfielders already and a second baseman who hit 23 homers as a rookie last year, none of the players mentioned is likely to get more than a September call-up, if that.

In fact, with a set lineup, a stacked rotation with plenty of spares and a solid bullpen, the Padres are the worst team to look at for hypothetical minor league “help”.

Travis L
Travis L
2 years 8 months ago

As a Padre fan, love your optimism!

C'mon Man
C'mon Man
1 year 10 months ago