Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the San Diego Padres.
It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Padres or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.
What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.
Steamer Projections: San Diego Batting Prospects
Below are the current 2014 projections for select San Diego batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers) for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.
Steamer Projections: San Diego Pitching Prospects
Below are the 2014 projections for select San Diego pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR, which has been calculated by using kwERA — that is, an ERA estimator which utilizes only strikeouts and walks — so as to remove the vagaries of park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.
• As noted in the recent post concerning the ZiPS projections for San Diego, it appears to be the case here, as well, that both (a) the club has some talent at the minor-league level, but also (b) little of it seems likely to make an impact with the parent club in 2014. Top-ranked Austin Hedges is probably the prospect most capable of producing. Opportunities will be limited, however, due to the presence both of Yasmani Grandal and Nick Hundley in the majors.
• Right-handers Matthew Wisler and Casey Kelly are both well-acquitted by Steamer. The former has been excellent in his two full professional seasons; the latter has also produced generally above-average numbers. Of immediate concern regarding Kelly, however, is his health: he missed all of 2013 due to Tommy John surgery.
• Not included here, but of some interest for the substance of his Steamer projection, is left-hander Juan Oramas. As a 23-year-old at Double-A this past year, he recorded strikeout and walk rates of 28.0% and 7.0%, respectively, in 12 starts and 55.2 innings. His projections for 2014 (prorated to 150 innings): 20.1% K, 9.4% BB, 104 kwERA-, 1.6 WAR.