Taking a Year Off During His Prime
It’s not often that a 28-year-old pitcher with a 4.11 career xFIP goes untouched as a free agent. Yet that’s what Jeremy Bonderman experienced this winter. Some teams apparently showed interest, but not to the level that Bonderman apparently deemed acceptable. Even as spring training has begun and some teams have realized needs in the rotation, we haven’t seen Bonderman strongly connected to anyone. As it turns out, he’s thinking about sitting out the season. That seems like a shame for a relatively young pitcher who once showed so much promise.
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick broke the news earlier today, citing a player who knows Bonderman. He then elaborated, saying, “Bonderman apparently doesn’t have the energy for more rehabs, or going to camp and having to fight for a spot.” The rehabs thing is apparently preemptive, since he has no apparent injury from which to rehab. (Or does he?) The last bit is the interesting part. He doesn’t want to fight for a spot? That strikes me as a bit odd.
This isn’t to say that Bonderman shouldn’t have to fight for a job. Considering his last four big league seasons, he absolutely has to prove that he can first stay healthy, and second consistently get out big league hitters. But he has been a successful pitcher in the past. It stands to reason, too, that he could fairly easily win a spot in the rotation of a second division team. Or, at least, that’s what I thought at first. After looking at some more data on Bonderman’s 2010, I’m starting to understand why he might want to lay low in 2011.
Other than his bloated ERA , a few things stand out about Bonderman’s 2010 season. First is his diminished strikeout rate. When he peaked in 2006 he was striking out nearly a batter per inning. With injuries that started to fall, and during his comeback season he struck out just 5.89 per nine, more than a batter per nine lower than league average. His walk rate, once a major strength, crept towards league average. And his home run rate, which used to hover around league average, eclipsed it significantly. Since those are the components for FIP, it’s no wonder that his was 0.82 higher than league average. Yet that might not be the most disturbing aspect.
PitchFX data doesn’t extend back to Bonderman’s earlier years, so we’ll have to use the BIS data. From 2004 through 2006 it had Bonderman slightly above 93 mph with the fastball and around 85 mph with his slider. Those numbers expectedly dropped off during his injury-riddled seasons, but even in 2010, two years removed from surgery, it was down significantly. BIS had it at 89.8, while PitchFX had it slightly above 90. Either way, it’s quite the drop. His year-long trend provides further pause:
His slider velocity, too, fell at about the same time.
These aren’t adjusted numbers, but the trend persists for long enough that it appears to be of concern. Not only was Bonderman’s fastball velocity down overall in 2010, but it fell later in the year. The results speak to this. In his final 13 starts, covering 73.1 innings (5.2 IP/start), he had a 6.50 ERA and 5.56 FIP. Strewn about were four good looking starts, but three of them were against the same team, the White Sox, and the other was against the Royals. In other words, if you’re looking for some optimism in his second half numbers, it’s that he managed to match up well against one team. That’s not particularly encouraging.
We don’t often see prime-aged pitchers taking a year off, especially following a healthy season. But in Bonderman’s case there is plenty to be concerned about. He might be further removed from his injury, but he was two years out last year and saw his stuff decline as the season wore on. Maybe a full year of rest will do his body good. Otherwise, this represents a sad end for such a promising pitcher.
Last July he admitted he was contemplating retirement so it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to anyone. He seems to think it too much of a job and sounds like he doesn’t enjoy it anymore.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/tigers/2010-07-28-bonderman-retirement_N.htm
Sure seems as though a lot of Oakland’s early 2000′s stable of starting pitching prospects peaked quickly. Of Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Bonderman and Harden, only remained effective past 30. They clearly did a great job of drafting, but I wonder whether their early ETA’s or maybe the way they were handled in the minors (Bonderman in Detroit) caused their early-dropoffs.
What if his mindset is that he doesn’t have 6-8 months of baseball in him right now. Maybe he only has 4 months in him. Well, then the smart thing to do would be to wait until July. By that time, as the umpteenth starting pitcher goes down to injury, he could get a reasonable salary, spent 3-4 weeks warming up in the minor leagues, and finish off the year on a high note. Maybe his fear is that he will break down before the year and have to fight all over again next year, and he’d rather just go out and pitch a good 3 months of baseball hoping to parlay it into a multiyear deal.
I suppose he was doing crunches one morning this winter and was suddenly all like, “Wait, don’t I have $40 million? I can probably stop doing this now.” I’m surprised it doesn’t happen more often.
Or this could be the first time that he’s really having to work at baseball … and he doesn’t like it.
I think, for a lot of pro baseball players, the major leagues are the first time in their lives where they really struggled at baseball. Up to that point it had pretty much been [1] show up, [2] dominate.
I think people would be shocked at just how many players play baseball at the elite level just because they’re awesome at it, and not so much because they love baseball.
Bonderman’s talent doesn’t match his arrogance. That’s a problem. You can be arrogant and get away with it if you’re talented. You can’t be arrogant and entitled and not dominate. That just makes you a jag.
I’ve always been interested in this phenomenon. Not just in baseball, but in all sports. Bonderman has repeatedly over the years talked about how he doesn’t care for baseball that much. He doesn’t advertise it or anything, but if you’ve followed the Tigers and read interviews with him, it would come up here and there. I remember several years back, maybe ’04 or ’05, they asked him in an interview who he thought would win the World Series and he said that he doesn’t really like to watch baseball and that it was boring and had not a clue as to who was playing in the World Series. Not that I expect every player on a non-playoff team to be glued to the TV as a fan might, but I was struck that someone who was actually good enough to be in the league could not care. And not “I don’t care” in that faux-athlete-macho way where they say things like “If I’m not in it, I don’t want to watch because I belong there”, but legitimately not caring. Over time other similar sentiments have come up from him, including his talk last Summer of retiring. I’ve always been left with the impression that he doesn’t like baseball very much, and I’ve thought this for many years, even before he got hurt.
I’ve always wondered how a player like him, or former Vikings running back Robert Smith in football, could make it to the highest level of their sports while openly disliking them. I mean, people do jobs that they don’t like all the time. I have in my past, in fact, I’d wager most people hate their job. But most of us when we hate our jobs, we kind of land there because of life circumstances. You have to go out of your way to even play sports to begin with. Nobody makes you join the high school baseball team, it’s completely optional. I wonder how these guys discover that they’re even good enough to be pros to begin with when they don’t even like it. I didn’t like geometry in 10th grade, so I didn’t take it anymore. For all we know I could be the greatest geometric thinker of our times but we won’t ever know because I didn’t take the class anymore because I didn’t like it. How is it that these guys make it so far?
I was just watching a replay of game 4 of the 2006 ALCS the other day and Bonderman’s stuff was electric compared to what it is now. According to the TV radar he was hitting 98 routinely and even touched 99 a couple times and the bite he had on his slider was filthy. After watching that it’s no wonder the Tigers gave him an extension the following offseason.
Anyways the problem with Bonderman is that he has always been a two pitch pitcher, he got away it back at that time because his stuff was electric but now the lack of a 3rd pitch killed him.
The Pitch F/X velocity readings were low for Comerica Park during the last several weeks of the season, so the unadjusted numbers overstate Bonderman’s in-season velocity trend. Mike Fast has noted this in an article published elsewhere as I recall. You can see it for yourself if you look at multiple Tiger starters and pay attention to the home versus road trend in their velocity readings.
Never understood why teams won’t look at him as a reliever (although maybe he doesn’t want to go the bullpen.
He’s basically always been a two-pitch pitcher and shortening him up might gift him back some velocity he so desperately needs to be successful.
That assumes that: A) No teams looked at him that way and B) That he’d accept such a role.
Not much evidence to support either of those points, really. The guy said he didn’t want to fight for a rotation spot, what would lead you to believe he’d even consider a bullpen gig?
Didn’t see your “maybe he doesnt want to” aside.
#morningfail
#toughguyfail
He may be contemplating the patented Sammy Sosa/Jim Edmonds one year career resurgence. It works like this: spend one year away from ped testing, and then return ‘refreshed’ the following spring. Bonderman could have a fluky great year with a 93 mph fastball in 2012 and parlay that into a multi year deal as a 30 year old healthy free agent. I suspect his velo would return to its 2010 levels soon after.
Maybe he should take a tour of Japan
Evidently the Tigers brought Bonderman to camp and were trying to work out a minor league contract but he just had a bad attitude, didn’t want to compete for a job and didn’t seem to give a damn. This was probably the most incriminating quote:
“Nobody told me I was in competition. If there is competition, somebody better let me know. If there is competition, they better eliminate me out of the race and go ahead and do what they’re going to do with me. I ain’t never pitched well in spring training and I never will. If it ain’t settled with me out there, then they can trade me. I ain’t going out there to hurt myself in spring training battling for a job. If it is [a competition], then I’m going into ‘Operation Shutdown.’ Tell them exactly what I said. I haven’t competed for a job since 2003.”
Seems fair to say he’s lost his love for the game.
The Tigers brought him to camp? News to this Tigers fan.
It would also be news to the coterie of Tigers fans who live in Lakeland and have photographed every day of workouts.
A little google search reveals that this quote is actually from Derek Bell, and the year mentioned was 1991, not 2003.
Not sure what you were trying to do other than slander Bonderman. I thought about it and thought maybe it was a joke but it lacks, you know, humor.
I thought there were parallels between between Bonderman’s not wanting to “fight for a job” and Bell’s infamous rant. I thought it was pretty obvious that it was Derek Bell’s quote, at least to baseball fans over age 25 or so, especially with the “Operation Shutdown” line. It was not meant to slander Bonderman, only to reinforce that perhaps Bonderman is in fact mentally done with the game much as Bell was and as the article suggests. I apologize for offending your superior wit with my pathetic attempt at humor. Excellent work, detective.
Coming back from years of injuries and ineffectiveness would be frustrating. Can’t say I wouldn’t retire with however many tens of millions of dollars he’s made.