The 2009 Replacement Level Position Players
Okay, so, now that we’ve gone through all eight positions and looked at what the CHONE projections expect from the guys who are signing minor league contracts this winter, let’s put together a roster and see what it would look like. We’ll fill out 13 spots with position players, allocate playing time, and come up with a projected offensive and defensive level for these freely available talents.
Starting Catcher: Toby Hall – 375 PA, .292 wOBA, -5 defense
Starting 1B: Josh Phelps – 600 PA, .355 wOBA, -15 defense
Starting 2B: Chris Burke – 600 PA, .318 wOBA, +10 defense
Starting SS: Ivan Ochoa – 600 PA, .300 wOBA, +5 defense
Starting 3B: Jose Castillo – 600 PA, .299 wOBA, +0 defense
Starting LF: Corey Patterson – 600 PA, .304 wOBA, +10 defense
Starting CF: Chris Duffy – 600 PA, .313 wOBA, +0 defense
Starting RF: Laynce Nix – 600 PA, .338 wOBA, +0 defense
Backup Catcher: Jamie Burke – 275 PA, .282 wOBA, +0 defense
Backup IF: Brad Eldred – 350 PA, .321 wOBA, -5 defense
Backup IF: Omar Vizquel – 350 PA, .278 wOBA, +5 defense
Backup OF: Trot Nixon – 250 PA, .337 wOBA, -5 defense
Backup OF: Ryan Langerhans – 300 PA, .330 wOBA, +0 defense
Totals: 6,100 PA, .314 wOBA, +0 defense
A .314 wOBA would translate to about 81 runs below average, or ~650 runs scored over the course of a full season. Now, there’s a pretty good case to be made that these guys wouldn’t perform as well in full-time play as they do as part-timers (especially guys like Phelps, who would then be subject to facing a lot of RHPs), so a .314 wOBA is probably too optimistic. If we knock 10 points of wOBA off for all the guys we’re projecting as starters, that brings us down to a .307 wOBA, or 117 runs below average.
So, replacement level position players, we’d be looking at something like 620 to 650 runs scored with league average defense. You could adjust this roster a bit to go more offense/less defense (stick Jonny Gomes in LF, for instance) if you’d like, but this gives you a pretty good picture of what a league minimum, freely available talent roster for 2009 would look like.
The sad part is that this group of fielders combined with an average pitching staff would have been better than 7 teams last season (0.450 w%).
I hope you plan on completing the list with replacement level pitching.
how many wins would this team be project to?
Dave:
Great series, as usual. Can I just ask where you’re getting the +0 defense for Langerhans?
oopps… Given that he’s -2 or something bUZZR career/150, and about +15 in the corners. CHONE is more optimistic about him in CF, of course.
Some answers, assuming average pitching in average fielding
649 724 76 86 1964 NL Chicago Cubs
635 723 72 90 1965 NL Chicago Cubs
626 742 69 93 1967 NL Houston Astros
625 723 68 94 1969 AL Chicago White Sox
645 745 63 99 1969 NL Philadelphia Phillies
622 729 71 90 1971 NL Washington Nationals
642 717 71 91 1973 NL Philadelphia Phillies
634 723 72 90 1974 NL San Francisco Giants
628 723 72 89 1975 AL Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
634 731 71 90 1978 AL Chicago White Sox
641 734 67 94 1984 AL Milwaukee Brewers
637 735 70 91 1988 AL Texas Rangers
629 735 67 95 1989 NL Philadelphia Phillies
646 729 77 85 1990 NL Philadelphia Phillies
650 718 69 93 1998 NL Pittsburgh Pirates
641 730 72 89 2002 NL Pittsburgh Pirates
649 745 75 87 2005 NL San Francisco Giants
637 729 70 90 Average
so about 70 wins
In other words, it took actually negative talent for the Mariners to spend $117M and win just 61 games last year.
No, we haven’t demonstrated that yet – we’ve only demonstrated that the M’s performance was worse than a team with half the talent of an average team. If replacement pitching also drops 11 wins against average, then the M’s were easily 3 wins better than negative talent.
I’m sure that’s comforting.