The 2010 Carter-Batista Award
As the 2010 season fades into memory and we look to 2011, my cheesy awards made from semi-”junk stats” need to get wrapped up soon. So today I unveil the 2010 winner of the Joe Carter-Tony Batista award, which is given to the player whose Runs Batted In most exaggerates his actual offensive value.
Most readers of FanGraphs don’t need to read a rant about why RBI are a bad measure of offensive value, so I won’t give you one. This award is just a fun way of sort of getting the point across with numbers. The general idea (explained in more detail in last year’s post) was inspired by a piece written a while back by Jonah Keri. I thought about using a more sophisticated methodology this season using BaseRuns scaled to the current run environment, but I prefer the simple approach. I simply divide each player’s number of RBI by the number of “absolute” linear weights runs created (wRC). The higher the number of RBI per wRC, the more the player’s RBI total “overrates” their actual offensive performance. To qualify for the award, I somewhat arbitrarily chose a 90 RBI minimum baseline.
Honorable mentions go to Casey McGehee (new guy!), Ryan Howard (perennial contender), and Corey Hart (Brewers, baby!).
And now for your top five (in reverse order):
5. Vladimir Guerrero, 1.22 RBI/wRC, .360 wOBA, .300/.345/496, 115 RBI
2010 was a nice comeback season for Guerrero, even if a .360 wOBA is a far cry from his heyday. I’m guessing that racking up RBI is a bit easier when hitting behind a guy with a .411 on-base percentage.
4. Adam LaRoche 1.25 RBI/wRC, .339 wOBA, .261/.320/.468, 100 RBI
LaRoche cotinued to show good power in 2010, but it is less impressive once you consider his home park. He hasn’t reached Tony Batista levels yet, but a first baseman with a .320 OBP and a sub-.500 slugging percentage in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball just isn’t all that inspiring. I wonder how much he regrets not taking San Francisco’s earlier offer? LaRoche also placed on my list of the Five Average-est Players of 2010.
3. Delmon Young, 1.31 RBI/wRC, .352 wOBA, .298/.333/.493, 112 RBI
Another guy from my “average” list… I’m not sure what more can be written about Delmon Young’s that hasn’t been said before — he’s finally above replacement level, still not that good overall. Hitting behind Joe Mauer and Jim Thome can really boost your fantasy stats, though.
2. Jason Kubel, 1.33 RBI/wRC, .326 wOBA, .249/.323/.427, 92 RBI
Another Twin? Maybe it’s Gardy who makes these guys so clutch… Kubel easily had the worst year of all the players on this list. The point, of course, isn’t that these guys are bad hitters, but that their RBI totals exaggerate their performance. Does anyone really want a .249/.323/.427 hitter in the middle of their lineup [insert #6org joke here]? I set the baseline at 90 rather than 100 because it makes for a more interesting list. I didn’t need to do so this season, but I left it at 90 to make things more consistent.
And the 2010 Carter-Batista Award goes to….
1. Alex Rodriguez, 1.41 RBI/wRC, .363 wOBA, .270/.341/.506, 125 RBI
I was quite surprised by this when I first ran the numbers. I’m sure Casey Close wishes I’d published this a week or two ago (“You guys are paying A-Rod all that money because of his RBI! Derek deserves that kind of money and security, too, he doesn’t get the opportunities because he leads off!). Rodriguez had “only” 103 RBI in 2008 with a .413 wOBA and 100 in 2009 with a .405 wOBA. It’s hard to imagine anyone thinking that he was actually better this season than the previous two. I expect him to hit better in 2011, but it will be interesting to see how he ages.
Congratulations, A-Rod!
Picking on Kubel after the season he had is like pistol whipping a blind kid.
Hey, it’s not the pistol’s fault he’s blind.
He won’t see it coming?
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Driving in runners: that’s what wins games, bro. And that’s why they pay him the big bucks! I mean, $264,000 per RBI sounds totally reasonable to me.
Awesome award. I guessed it would be A-Rod before I read this article cuz I remember looking at the leaderboards after the season and thinking “Wow A-Fraud had 125RBI?!?!” And I’m guessing he won’t age all that well, his contract is going to be recognized as one of the worst in the history of the game sooner rather than later.
“Perchance he for whom this bell tolls may be so ill, as that he knows not it tolls for him; and perchance I may think myself so much better than I am, as that they who are about me, and see my state, may have caused it to toll for me, and I know not that.” – quoth Vernon Wells’ contract
Barry says hi
Alex Rodriguez is one of the top 5 greatest baseball players of ALL time. He will break the HR record within the next 4 years. He struggled with injuries in his last 2 seasons, yet he was among the best sluggers in the game. 13 consecutive seasons with 30+ HR/100+ RBIs.
In 2011 A-Rod will produce .303/.402/.567 with 38 HRs and 130 RBIs.
A-Rod might eventually break the HR record, but there is no way he does it in 4 years.
Holy cow, touchy touchy. No one is disputing how outstanding his career has been, or that he’s one of the game’s all-time best hitters. Was simply showing how he took *full* advanage of his RBI opportunities in 2010.
A-Rod would have aged great if they didn’t ban steroids.
Ha!
knew arod would win. its hard not to get rbi batting fourth in that lineup in that stadium. not to mention how he had i think 3 grandslams. yay for sequencing inflating value! im surprised to see his wOBA over .400 in 08 and 09. i knew he was alright, but his traditional stats didn’t look that good and i don’t remember him being that spectacular. this year he had some power outage, and the rbi are just ridiculous especially when you consider that he missed some time on the DL.
“this year he had some power outage”
The best part is how a power outage means 30 hr for him
Just a super, fun article. This is why I read this site. Thanks! :)
So, how many runners on base did A-Rod NOT bat in?
I used to be able to determine how many runners in scoring position there were for every at-bat using ESPN stats, but they don’t include these splits anymore.
Then, I’d divide RBI by # runners in scoring position to determine “RBI efficiency.” This formula gives extra value to batters that bat runners on first base, and themselves, in. I think that’s a deserved bonus.
Bill James has a system where he counts RBI opportunities as .1(AB) + .4(AB w/ runner on first) + .7(AB with runner on second / third with two outs) + (AB with runner on third, less than two outs). I think that works pretty well.
(http://billjamesonline.net/ArticleContent.aspx?AID=708&Code=James01191)
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That’s an interesting formula. For comparison purposes, I’m not sure why weights — which seem to be some kind of expected run amount — are necessary. Comparing to some average ballplayer, I presume?
I did this for Bonds vs Kent (when Kent won the MVP batting behind Bonds) and for Bonds vs Sosa (when Sosa had a boat-load of RBIs — and a ton more RBI chances) a long time ago.
OK, I count 187 RBI chances (mlb.com) — that is, total number of runners on 2nd or 3rd during his at-bats. Of those, he hit 89 in.
RBI efficiency, though, is about 67%, when all RBI are counted in the numerator.
2009 (baseball-reference): 182 RBI chances (vs 187 in 2010), 67 of those batted in (vs 89), 33 other RBI (vs 36).
Seems, in 2010, he batted better when it mattered. Or smarter, focusing on getting the runners to home?
RBI efficiency in 2009 was only 55%. Similar number of RBI chances, similar number of non-RBI chance RBIs.
Is this Carter-Bautista award a bit flawed because of this?
I think you might be a bit off the point…
Dead-Horse alert:
2008: 190 RBI Chances; 67 batted in on those ABs, 36 other RBI. 54% RBI efficiency.
Seems to me his RBI were inflated in 2010, because he hit “better” with men in scoring position.
Yeah, 0.500 Slugging w/RISP in 2010, vs 0.450 in 2009 and 0.458 in 2008.
Only thing I don’t know is what a high RBI Efficiency is. Certainly, a team would want its highest RBI efficiency player in or around the clean-up spot.
I can feel the revival of the clutch hitting skill creeping through your post, SOB, and it’s making me nauseous.
“Clutch hitting” may not be a predictive skill, but that doesn’t mean that above “average” performance in certain RBI/high leverage situations can’t provide value to a player’s season above and beyond their wRC
I echo those who wish we had a better back of the envelope stat for RBI efficiency. I know RE24 and WPA attempt to do this, but they are still biased by sheer amount of RBI situations a player finds himself in
Not the response I was looking for!
As you can see, A-Rod maybe had a “lucky” year, hitting 20 more RBI in RISP situations in 2010 than in the past two years, with about the same amount of RBI chances. Or, maybe he decided to change his approach? I’ve no idea.
Now, if his RBI Chances increased 40 or so, then maybe this award (overrated RBI) makes some sense.
You could say he was “lucky” or that he was “clutch” or that he was above “average,” but I think you have to agree that “ARod” deserves to be “put” in “quotes.”
Delmon Young will be 26 in September of NEXT year. He’s not good defensively, he doesn’t walk enough, but jeez… he’s decent offensively. 46 doubles and 21 homeruns is not garbage. He’s mostly guilty of not living up to unrealistic expectations. His personality has always been suspect, but even his coaches and teammates say he works hard and is focused. They even LIKE the guy. Learning plate discipline is not something that happens often once a players pattern is set. It’s a fault, but he is of value. Get off his back.
Well he does have value, but of course he also finished, what, 10th in MVP voting?
I mean I know a lot of guys get throwaway votes towards the end of the ballot, but a poor defensive LF w/ a 122 wRC+ is about as average as it gets. Average is useful, but there was still a lot of rhetoric for Young’s 112 RBI season that could’ve used a tone-down.
Young has all the tools in the world. Rifle arm, prodigious power, speed, from my hometown…
The problem is, he has absolutely no patience and hasn’t learned to read balls off the bat. He should be at least as good as Jason Heyward, but isn’t close because he can’t stop swinging at everything and can’t read a ball off the bat.
Agree here. People forget how young Young is. Only 25…wow seems like he’s been here forever. Gardy was happy with the work he put in this year so if the kid can stay focused and can keep the weight off and maybe see an uptick in his walks, could be a monster.
Baseball Prospectus tracks performance in RBI opportunities: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=160172
I’m not too hip to adding in runners on first, but, again, I see A-Rod first in OBI and 2nd in OBI% (among the top OBI’ers). If he were, say, at 15% OBI%, I think he would deserve this blogpage’s award. But he’s batting runners in with great efficiency.
Thanks for this
Craziest OBI% stat so far in my browsing
Carlos Gonzalez 2010: 1st in NL (300 PAs min), 22.1% OBI
Carlos Gonzalez 2009: 138th in NL (300 PAs min), 9.5% OBI
Howard has been 21st or better in the NL in OBI% in every year since 2006. I guess that makes sense strictly as a proxy of his power…even though OBI% subtracts the RS from the HR, lots of power in men on base spots will help cash in a high percentage
Dunn has been consistently low in the rankings though despite similar power. Only above 45 in the NL (300 min PAs again) once since 06. I know better patience/more walks in these spots doesn’t help him in OBI%, but does anyone else have thoughts on this?
Looking at these “top 5″‘s OBI%:
5. Vlad: 18.8%
4. LaRoche: 18.2%
3. Young: 20.0%
2. Kubel: 15.5%
1. A-Rod: 21.6%
Kubel has a lower OBI for each base than A-Rod. So, who’s not doing their job?
“Ryan Howard (periennial contender)” *sic*
Doesn’t anyone being a “perennial contender” devalue the exercise altogether? Now, I understand the point … and I am certainly not going to mount a defense in favor of “The RBI”. However, I would imagine that the point of looking past arbitrary, team-dependent production totals is to determine performances that are unlikely to be repeated. Anomalies and outliers that deceive us into over-valuing a particular player or set of players.
But while production totals don’t tell the whole story, they are part of a narrative device that can be effective when placed alongside more critical elements. It seems to me that the “perennial” nature of the campaign against Ryan Howard has become more of a logical flaw than a representative demonstration of the ineffectiveness of traditional statistics.
Now, I think that Ryan Howard’s production is, in fact, an example of an anomaly and an outlier, for sure. Just not in the way it seems to be represented. His continued production, *despite* underlying metrics that could be described as pedestrian, seem to point to something else altogether. Calling Delmon Young or Jason Kubel or Adam LaRoche overrated is not only justified but necessary. Making an argument that A-Rod and Vladdy due for a dropoff in production would be valid as well. But Ryan Howard is just a different cat … and probably a guy that will be given his own award of this kind down the road.
As soon as Ryan Howard puts up 100+ RBI without Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and the rest of the Phillies offense hitting in front of him, I’ll start to investigate what this mysterious “something else altogether” could be.
You’re referring to Victorino’s impressive .327 OBP in ’10? Jimmy Rollins’ .320? Utley’s extended absence? That’s a strong offense, but there are a lot of variables there … some of which, one would think, were not in Howard’s favor. I am not going to make the argument that Howard is the best run producer in baseball, or anything like that. I just don’t think any cleanup hitter would benefit from a 1-2 like Rollins and Victorino … not in 2010 at least. Those players have not been consistent at all in terms of getting on base, yet Howard’s run production has remained steady.
There is no doubt he’s been fortunate enough to be put into a lot of RBI situations relative to most of the league…Looking at the OBI% from BP, for whatever reason, Howard has consistently been well above average at converting those chances on a percentage basis as well
When you hit a shitload of home runs, you get a lot of RBIs. That’s a basic premise of offense. Seriously, it’s that basic.
From 06-10, Howard has hit 229 HRs, an AVERAGE of 46 per season. Where would you guess that ranks among ALL players during that time?
Hey look, the best HR guy over the last 5 years also drives in A LOT runs. Who would have thunk it? If he hit 46 HRs a year on a lesser team, he’d only drive in 85 runs. Do people REALLY believe that? based on what statistical data?
Big RBI guys get the most RBIs because of where they hit in the lineup. They hit in the middle of the lineup because they get a lot of extra base hits. Which is the cause, which is the effect (I don’t really care because the answer is moot).
So Doug is basically saying “Let’s see Howard put up 100 RBIs without anyone on base … even though we don’t apply that to ANYONE else.”
I’d like to see Pujols, ARod, Mauer, ANYONE, put up a 100 RBI season without having decent OBP guys in front of them.
In Howard’s worst year (this year) he drove in 108 runs. He also hit 15 less HRs than usual. So, it HAS to be because no one got on base and Utley was injured. Don;t get me wrong those are big factors. But had he hit his usual 46 HRs, how many RBI would he have had? 130+? See, that’s with no one else on his team doing anything additional.
This is easily demonstrated in a simulation with average OBP guys hitting in front of him. So, you can prove it through a nerd’s approach if you want to.
There’s a reason why Joe Carter and Tony Bautista are on the tip of every saberist’s tongue … they’re the rare exceptions. Almost all the other BIG RBI guys are very good hitters (or at least very good power hitters), and not just by coincidence.
Jesus Christ, we might as well say someone scores a lot of points because they take a lot of shots. Well, no poop. Everyone from Gretzky to Jordan will tell you that. Guys that suck don’t take a lot of shots AND have long careers. Where does the advanced statistical analysis come in?
It really is this simple … and frustrating.
I know it’s Ryan Howard and he must suck because he got a ridiculous deal and the media over-values RBIs, but the stance some guys are taking on anything or everything Ryan Howard is ridiculous.
Ryan Howard bats a lot with guys on base. Ryan Howard hits exceptionally well with guys on base. Ryan Howard usually drives in A LOT of runs. Am I missing something here? This is like a kid’s book. It should be that simple.
I think “perennial contender” actually underscores the point of how ludicrous the RBI metric is. Remember, the award is partially named for Joe Carter — almost certainly the all-time leading beneficiary of the emptiness of RBI.
What offensive stats does being on a good offensive team not underscore?
It’s a team game. One thing will always affect another.
I would argue that Adrian Gonzalez’s 09 point to the idea that HR/RBI are not as tightly linked as you are stating CC
I never took a deep look at Carter’s stats, but damn, he was hollow. Basically Juan Uribe, but a mediocre defensive corner OFer instead of an above-average middle IFer
we all don’t want clutch to exist because we are all failed baseball players
I don’t really think this is about “clutch”, more about players whose RBI numbers are kind of hollow (lots of chances = lots of RBIs)
The problem with the situation is not that Joe Carter racked up a lot of RBI because he got a lot of chances. That’s an individual case.
Among the 800+ players per year over 100+ years, there will be exceptions like Bautista, Herr, etc.
But, for some reason a handful of examples completely negate the overhelmingly overall trend/correlation. *Shrugs* I agree that RBI are not the best stat. I don’t agree that they are useless or tell us nothing. False Dichotomies are rarely a good idea.
We should also determine stats that tell us a bout performance versus that those that are good as predictors. There’s a difference.
On the topic of Arod, no doubt that the lineup/sequencing plays a huge role in his inflated stats. What I found interesting in 2010 was how old he looked, and I’m not talking about his frosted receding hairline. The speed aspect of his game was non existent and he couldn’t move laterally when playing 3rd. Whether it’s his age, chronic hip issue or the residue of years of steroid/HGH use, physically he was not the same guy we were accustomed to seeing.
He’s in the decline phase now and I think within 2 years he is going to make the Yankees rue this albatross of a contract.
“physically he was not the same guy we were accustomed to seeing.”
I suspect you think 35-year-old sluggers to steal 30 bases? I don’t know what you think you saw, but he was only at -1.8 UZR in 2010 and he is, and has always been known to be, a great base runner. His BABIP and HR/FB were all down even compared to 2009… when he actually had the surgery. I don’t think a bounceback year is out of the question.
I don’t think Yankees fans need to worry until A-Rod shows up to ST fat and out of shape. I’m of the opinion that he’s a tremendous athlete with a known work ethic and should age reasonably well. The contract is bad, no doubt about it, but at worst what they’re going to have over the last 3 years or so is a DH who makes way too much money chasing the HR record. Something also tells me the Yankees will somehow find a way to overcome it.