The 2010 Fan Projections!

For those of you who have been hanging around FanGraphs since at least last season, you’ll know that we carry various projections in the off-season, which are for the most part generated by computer programs.

This off-season, in addition to carrying the various computer generated projections, we’ve teamed up with Tangotiger of insidethebook.com to give you, the fans, a chance to generate your own projection line for each major league player. Hopefully our collective brains will be able to pinpoint things that computer systems don’t.

With that said, let me give you all a quick tour of a projection ballot:

FanProj

Before you can project any players, you’ll have to select the team you follow most closely towards the top of the screen. If you really don’t follow a team, just pick one. You’ll only have to do this once.

After you’ve selected a team, there are 8 categories for pitchers and 10 categories for position players. Pick the values in the drop-down boxes closest to what you think the player will do in 2010, hit the submit button and you’re done! If you made a mistake, you can always go back and change your selection at any time.

That’s really all there is to it. You can filter players by team, or if you go to the player pages, you can project players individually. If you want to see all the players you’ve projected, you can click on the “My Rankings” button which will show you only what you specifically projected a player to do.

As with all new features, we hope everything is bug free and we test things as much as possible, but if you do notice any issues, please let us know.



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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Kincaid
Member
6 years 9 months ago

This seems like a promising feature. Thanks for setting it up.

How do you want us to handle catcher defense? Should we estimate a value, or just treat it like UZR and ignore it?

Ryan
Member
6 years 9 months ago

Having trouble getting some of the projections to submit, and the majority of the time the “loading” screen sticks (though the projections usually go thru).
I figure its just the initial kinks in a new system.
Love the idea, I would love to see how the “Fan” system fares against the other systems at the end of the season.

Detroit
Member
Detroit
6 years 9 months ago

Should we figue manager styles into our lineup projections?

Michael
Guest
6 years 9 months ago

The answer should probably be yes. The idea is that while projection systems do not have information about things like lineup spots, platoons, and playing time in general, fans have that available and thus offer a unique perspective.

Great stuff David. Thanks for this. I can’t wait to do this for my team. Will we only be allowed to vote for one team?

Omar
Guest
Omar
6 years 9 months ago

Yeah, there’s no way that this can end up a clusterfuck.

Nice idea though.

JoeR43
Member
JoeR43
6 years 9 months ago

For every crazy optimist about a player, there’s a crazy pessimist.
Big sample, it’ll work pretty decently.
And since it uses a lot of basic stats that most every fan can wrap their brain around quickly, it could provide fangraphs some attention as well.

Omar
Guest
Omar
6 years 9 months ago

Oh I like the idea, unfortunately it relies on the intelligence, and more important the maturity and objectivity, of the readers of this site. I like to keep projections pessimistic, so maybe a good idea is that to sort projections that are only done by the fans of rival teams.

Omar
Guest
Omar
6 years 9 months ago

I mean, really though I’ll accept anything that’s better than Bill James’ projections, though I’m sure the internet will disappoint me.

Fresh Hops
Guest
Fresh Hops
6 years 9 months ago

You could view this as an authority or a hypothesis subject to empirical test. Viewed in the latter way, this is a very interesting project; viewed in the former, it probably does about as well as the other projection systems.

BTW, I’m pretty sure that this data will get a statistical massage after it’s in there. I’m not sure how stuff like that works exactly, but the basic idea would be find the averages predicted by fans and compare that to the averages in recent baseball years, and then systematically (i.e. in the same way for every player) adjust their fan projections so that the average fan projection matches reasonable expectations of league averages.

Paul
Member
Paul
6 years 9 months ago

Great idea. First try took 10 minutes to load and didn’t go through. Bummer.

Jason Collette
Guest
6 years 9 months ago

Great concept – I hope it works out well. I have been advocating for an online engine for this concept for awhile; glad someone(s) took the time to hammer something out. I am very interested to see how the community projections compare to the pundit projections that are posted.

Paul
Guest
Paul
6 years 9 months ago

Will these projections just serve as a personal thing where we can see at the end of the season how right (or wrong) we were – or will all the fan projections eventually be aggregated and averaged out and then appear alongside Bill James, CHONE, etc. on the player pages?

JD Sussman
Member
6 years 9 months ago

Dave,

I’m having an issue seeing where I select a team. I can only see individual players right now.

JD Sussman
Member
6 years 9 months ago

Its only a problem when I click my projections, not when I follow your link FYI.

JD Sussman
Member
6 years 9 months ago

Dave,

I guess I’m having a problem with getting to the balloting outside of your link.

Unless of course the link is the only way you want us to get to the ballot.

JD Sussman
Member
6 years 9 months ago

Thanks Dave. BTW- not that you don’t hear it enough – what your doing with this site is truly unbelievable.

Jeff Zimmerman
Guest
6 years 9 months ago

Are there any plans to eliminate obvious bonus ballots?

Dave
Guest
Dave
6 years 9 months ago

Any chance that I can wait till February to do this? I love the idea, but I’d like to wait and see how the FA market plays out so I can take into account lineup effects

JoeR43
Member
JoeR43
6 years 9 months ago

I love how Pedroia is the first positional player w/ the sample size to be projected.

Apparently all of us nerds love having opinions on Pedroia (see 2008 MVP vote discussions).

AJS
Member
AJS
6 years 9 months ago

I can’t find the projection on Pedroia’s page — where did you find it?

JoeR43
Member
JoeR43
6 years 9 months ago

30 sample points, I like the Central Limit Theorem-ness.

opisgod
Member
opisgod
6 years 9 months ago

Can we please have an option added to decide the amount of starts/appearances a pitcher is going to make? Right now I have Jiminez slotted for 210+ innings…I don’t think he is going to make 37 starts by any stretch of the imagination.

Sky Kalkman
Member
6 years 9 months ago

On this page:

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fan

Can you list the projected fielding rating, too, please, David? (Position adjustment is always nice, too, so you can show people how much position matters.)

Sky Kalkman
Member
6 years 9 months ago

Would also love to see WAR/150 listed.

Kyle Boddy
Member
6 years 9 months ago

This is great, guys. I will promote it big time.

Tangotiger
Editor
Member
6 years 9 months ago

I’m not crazy about WAR/150.

The entire point of WAR is that it includes playing time. If you are going to force the playing time component, you might as well do WAA (wins above average) / 150. After all, the difference between WAR/150 and WAA/150 is that you have to add 2 wins to WAA/150 to get to WAR/150.

Sky Kalkman
Member
6 years 9 months ago

WAA is fine, too, although it has the downside of being on a different scale.

JoeR43
Member
JoeR43
6 years 9 months ago

Wouldn’t it be better to standardize the number based on Plate Appearances instead of games?

Unless your leadoff hitter is Willy Taveras, a per 150 games number would inflate leadoff hitter numbers relative to middle of the order guys.

freezorilla
Member
freezorilla
6 years 9 months ago

Great stuff! The My Rankings feature is no longer showing the players I projected. It has a random series of names that differs from the players with the minimum number of ballots. It worked fine earlier.

Toffer Peak
Member
Toffer Peak
6 years 9 months ago

1. I’ve found a Bug in the My Rankings page (http://www.fangraphs.com/fanprojections.aspx?teamid=-1) I am getting someone else’s rankings mixed in with mine. I’ve never even heard of Jordan Brown let alone bothered to project him. I only did two projections last night and I already have 11 projections in My Rankings.

BTW someone’s really optimistic on Pedro Martinez – 10-4, 3.25, Nolasco – 3.25, CC – 2.75 and Halladay 2.75.

2. Is there a reason you are using dropboxes rather than letting us input more exact numbers? Personally I find the dropboxes less convenient as well as less accurate, particularly at the fringes. If you’re asking for fan’s opinions shouldn’t you trust them to be able to choose between 152 games played and 148?

JoeR43
Member
JoeR43
6 years 9 months ago

I have the same problem right now. I was getting the guys I voted on.

I had Yuni Betancourt at -0.8 WAR and I wanted to enjoy my handiwork.

Tangotiger
Editor
Member
6 years 9 months ago

I did free-form text once. You wouldn’t believe the headache that caused me.

.763
763
76.3

Were all OPS forecasts I received. If you put user-validation on the front-end, you are going to p-ss off the user. If you put the validation after-the-fact, you have to worry about all this (and more!).

As for the fringes, ideally, if you think someone is going to get a .300 BA (and that’s the boundary) and are unsure about .270-.299 and .300-.329, believe me, there will be plenty of people just like you. It’ll all average out. Basically, the chances are close to nil that everyone will gravitate to the same upper boundary.

Toffer Peak
Member
Toffer Peak
6 years 9 months ago

I could see such a problem with OPS but with the fields that this is asking for none of them would require a period since they are all whole numbers (even batting average would always be 3 digits (and only three digits) so the form could just place a period immediately in front of the form box, anything other than 3 digits would be rejected). If fans can’t figure out something simple like that is their opinion really worth anything?

JoeR43
Member
JoeR43
6 years 9 months ago

Thanks Dave.

Oops, Yuni at -1.1 WAR. In under 500 PA. I think I was generous about his fielding, too.

Neil
Member
Neil
6 years 9 months ago

Seriously? ‘Optimistic’ on Halladay putting up a 2.75 ERA? When he’s posted 2.78 and 2.79 the last two years and the defense behind him isn’t likely to change much? Or am i missing something?

thoughtxriot
Member
thoughtxriot
6 years 9 months ago

How are you coming up with the aggregate projections? When submitting a ballot, you don’t choose things like HBP or specifically doubles or triples…so, how do you come up with what percentage of 2B+3B are doubles? How do you come up with the HBP figure?

thoughtxriot
Member
thoughtxriot
6 years 9 months ago

Also, how is it coming up with R and RBI?

Matty Brown
Member
Member
Matty Brown
6 years 9 months ago

This feature just made my life, haha

or it at least makes my job a hell of a lot less boring.

thank you ever so much for this brilliant application, and i must say it has a very convenient set-up and user interface.

I cannot wait, as I am sure the writers on this site can’t wait either, to see the correlations between the Fans projections and those of BJ, Marcel, and Chone; and more importantly and excitedly to see the correlation between actual 2010 performances.

I can’t help but wonder how fantastic it would be to trump the correlations made by the various computerized systems.

Taylor H
Guest
6 years 9 months ago

This is phenomenal. Thank you for doing this.

johnf
Member
johnf
6 years 9 months ago

Just curious as to how WHIP is calculated in the projections since there’s no H/9 slot. Great feature, at any rate.

Mowses
Member
Mowses
6 years 9 months ago

Ok I have a question: After I submitted my projection, which projections am I seeing under “My Rankings”? Is it just my projections or the generell fan projections for these players?

Mowses
Member
Mowses
6 years 9 months ago

Seriously, nobody can answer this?

Tangotiger
Editor
Member
6 years 9 months ago

Don’t worry about the buckets being too big. It simply won’t happen that there’s going to be so many people wondering “should I mark it at 149 or 150 G” that they will bias it toward one side too much.

Indeed, the buckets are identical to what I ran on my site last year:
http://www.tangotiger.net/survey/index5.php

In practical purposes, you are not going to see what you think might happen. It doesn’t happen.

And the drawback behind having too small buckets is that you are making the dropdown list pretty long, and now you are asking for precision, when all you really need is a quick answer. This is the point: you can ask someone to spend 30 seconds to forecast a player or you can ask him to spend 90 seconds, and those extra 60 seconds, while valuable if all you have is one forecaster goes out the window as wasted effort because once you have 20 or 30 fans, those extra 60 seconds each person is going to spend will be useless.

HOWEVER, if you really really really (has to be three reallys, not two or one) think this is an issue, you find me a “boundary player”, and maybe we can set up a test case and have people re-evaluate him, and see if we get anything that’s really different.

Jesus
Member
Jesus
6 years 9 months ago

Eh, just ran into a bit of a problem with Adam Dunn. his UZR cannot be projected to be any worse than -20, but it’s almost a certainty that it will be well below that. I know numbers like that are uncommon enough to be considered outliers, but in a case like Dunn, where he is putting up that insanely bad number so consistenly, that option should be made available to get an accurate fan projection.

jmr
Member
jmr
6 years 9 months ago

Any chance that our personal 2010 projection can be included with the 2007-2009 stats on the projection page, not just the My Rankings page? The instant feedback will make for better projections.

Pete
Guest
Pete
6 years 9 months ago

Great work all around everyone, not just useful but entertaining and engaging interface.

Mr. Tangotiger, this might not be the appropriate fourm and it’s obvious you spent a lot of time contributing to this tool — but any chance you could let us know when the 2010 MARCEL projections might be out? I believe 2009’s came out on November 9th last year.

Fan projections more than suffice in the meantime though. Great stuff.

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