The Cardinals, Mark Ellis, and Depth

The Cardinals have reportedly signed Mark Ellis to a one-year deal. Ellis will turn 37 next season, but played well enough the last couple of years with the Dodgers that he was sure to find a job. The question is whether the Cardinals really needed him given the presence of Kolten Wong. The answer has to do with the Cardinals’ position as a contender and their concern with depth.

Back around 2008, Ellis was something of a sabermetric favorite in a (retrospectively) stereotypical style. Aside from the obvious career year in 2005, Ellis was only an average-ish hitter, but he played good defense at an not-very-glamorous position. There was a fair bit consternation in those cirlces when he opted to give Oakland what appeared to be a very team-friendly deal after the 2008 season instead of testing free agency. Ellis was up and down for the A’s in 2009 and 2010, then was traded to the Rockies during another down season in 2011. When the Dodgers gave him a two-year deal prior to the 2012 season, even many of Ellis’ former saber-fans might have shaken their heads given that age seemed to have taken its toll on his bat to the point that his glove could not longer make up for it.

Ellis answered the doubts with two solid seasons in 2012 and 2013 for the Dodgers. His bat was below average, but good enough for a second baseman who seemed to still have “it” in the field. Some saw his 2013 performance as one of the keys to the Dodgers’ semi-miraculous run to the playoffs. So it was not surprising, particularly given how many teams seemed to be in need of second base help, that he would find a job in 2014, even if he will turn 37 in June. What might be surprising is that it is with St. Louis.

The main question with Ellis is whether his glove can still make up for his bat. Ellis was last an above-average hitter in 2010, and as one would expect given his age, he has declined. Sure, random variation has been a factor — particularly in his dreadful 2011 — but Ellis is in his thirties playing a position at which attrition is brutal. Ellis’ plate discipline as measured by walks and strikeouts is probably about what it has been the last few seasons — a slightly better than average strikeout rate and a below-average walk rate. But his power, never that great, has really dropped off, both in terms of home runs, but also doubles and triples per ball in play. Steamer projects Ellis for an 85 wRC+ in 2014, Oliver for 80. Even if that seems a bit pessimistic, I doubt many think his true talent is much better than the 92 wRC+ he produced for the Dodgers last year.

Now, if Ellis was just an average defender at second, a 92 wRC+ would not really cut it. But, as noted above, Ellis is generally considered to be an above-average defender. How much above average is difficult to say, but even at 90 wRC+, if he is as good in the field as UZR and DRS see him as being the last three years, then he could still be roughly an average player — roughly two wins over a full season.

“A full season” is something of an issue for Ellis. Ellis has been put on the the disabled list in every season since 2008. He has had more than 500 plate appearances just once (2011) since 2008. He has not played in more than 140 games since 2007, and only in more than 130 once since then. He has never been out for a season, and he has played in at least 100 games every year since his rookie campaign, but it is still a bit worrisome, especially given his age.

In the abstract, Ellis seems like he is pretty low risk on whatever one-year deal he would be likely to get. But why the Cardinals? After all, despite trading away David Freese and moving Matt Carpenter to third base, St. Louis’ 2013 Minor League Player of the Year, Kolten Wong, seems like he could step in and take over at second base. Why sign an aging veteran role player to “block” the rookie?

Wong did not exactly light things up in his major league debut in 2013, as he hit just .153/.194/.169 for a -1 (~!) wRC+. Still, it is hard to believe the statistical line is problematic — it was just 62 plate appearances, after all. It is similarly hard to imagine St. Louis being overly concerned about Wong’s, um, exploits in the World Series. Wong may not profile as a future superstar, but he is generally considered to be a promising prospect with a future as a good major league regular.

Obviously, the Cardinals know more about Wong than anyone else. Maybe they simply do not think he is as good as the public prospecting community believes. That would be an easy rationale for the Ellis signing, but there is no independent indication that this is the case, and it would be less interesting, anyway.

Perhaps St. Louis thinks Wong needs more seasoning in the minor leagues, which may be true, but that answer is like the “they don’t like him” answer — not that interesting, although it would be a reason to bring Ellis aboard. Along similar lines though, we might find something of broader significance. It would be one thing if the Cardinals were a rebuilding team with out a credible shot at the playoffs and were signing veterans instead of playing promising young players. But the Cardinals are clearly not in that position. They are built to win now.

In particular, this Cardinals team is at an age where they need to be trying to win now. Yes, they have some exciting young talent, especially on the pitching side, but they are not a young team. Of the projected position players for 2014, every hitter besides Wong and Matt Adams will be at least 27 by the end of March 2014. Oscar Taveras may change that calculus slightly as well, but with Allen Craig and Jon Jay already set for at least some right field duty, it’s unclear how much Taveras will play, if at all. Even if you think hitters still peak at 27 (despite important recent research), it is pretty clear that the Cardinals, despite a continuing influx of talent from the minors, are at a team age at which “winning now” makes sense. They have a good collection of players, but on the offensive side, they are not likely to improve as time passes.

One might argue that the overall age means the team should be willing to get younger, and that makes sense. The Cardinals do have a very good minor-league system that develops players that teams have been and probably will be ready to use. However, not even the best prospects are sure things, and while Wong is good, few see him as a potential superstar. This is not trading Wil Myers and letting Jeff Francoeur handle things in right field, to pick an obvious example.

The point is simply that the Cardinals want more certainty, and thus are avoiding the risk of a hole as best they can within the constraints of their budget. Of course, even if Wong bombs, they might be able to carry second base in 2014 in the same way they did with shortstop in 2013. But why take that extra chance when they do not have to do so? Moreover, bringing Ellis on board on a low-risk one-year deal adds to the depth that has been a feature of the Cardinals’ recent success. If Ellis does get hurt (or age definitively catches up with him), they still have Wong ready to play. If Wong is so good he forces his way onto the lineup Card, it is not as if their commitment to Ellis is so large he would really be in the way. Maybe the two players will end up in a platoon at some point. These are the sorts of options deep teams give themselves.

The Cardinals have a recent history of taking advantage of depth. This is obvious just from looking at 2013. Craig was slated to be the team’s first baseman, and was for most of the season. The problem was that this blocked Matt Adams, a promising who could not really play anywhere else. Still, to the surprise of no one, Craig eventually went down with an injury and Adams filled in quite ably at first base. With Carlos Beltran now gone, Craig moves back to right field and Adams to first base. The trade for Peter Bourjos also illustrates the Cardinals liking for depth. Yes, they gave up their third baseman, but they already had Matt Carpenter available for third base, and Wong was ready for second base if they could not find another one. It also shored up an outfield — with Bourjos slated to start in center, it allows Jay, who is not a horrible player, to slot into a more natural fourth-outfielder spot and to back up Craig “just in case” he has to miss time with injury.

One could look at examples of other recent, successful teams turning depth into an advantage — the current composition of Ellis’ former team in Oakland comes to mind. The Cardinals were hardly a stars and scrubs team before the Ellis signing. The Ellis signing does, however, shore up a potential weak spot at the Cardinals make yet another run for a championship.




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Matt Klaassen reads and writes obituaries in the Greater Toronto Area. If you can't get enough of him, follow him on Twitter.


41 Responses to “The Cardinals, Mark Ellis, and Depth”

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  1. Anon says:

    Maybe the two players will end up in a platoon at some point.

    I’m surprised this only got a small mention. I am expecting a Wong/Ellis platoon. Also, Adams might sit against LHP. This would give Craig’s legs some rest and let the Cardinals use their OF depth.

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    • Bill says:

      A platoon isn’t the best option at MI as players need to get accustomed to double play partners. Wong has put up two pretty impressive seasons at 21 in AA and 22 in AAA, unless his defense is horrible I would guess that Ellis is just a backup here.

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      • crw says:

        Not sure how you value seasoned “double play partners,” but the Cardinals definitely know how to value RH vs LH splits, organization/position depth,and potential for injury, and that is a far greater variable in the equation. This will be a platoon unless either player takes a hold of the position due to offensive performance or the other gets injured.

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        • Right. I see this as a platoon, too. It’s just a 1-year deal, folks. Wong gets the chance to break in gradually, just like Tavares will. He’ll get an occasional AB against a lefty pitcher during the year.

          Craig will spell Adams at 1B against lefties, in a similar fashion. That’s part of how you work the OF.

          And contra this blog’s author, Jay IS bad.

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      • stan says:

        The “double play partners” theory is from a generation ago when players generally played every day and platoons were a rarity.

        Even if that were the current norm in the major leagues, I can definitely say that the Cardinals do not subscribe to that policy, as they switched Descalso and Kozma out quite a bit last year even though they had a guy who was new to the position playing second base every day. Eventually they did put them into a rough platoon, just like they will at second this year.

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    • paperlions says:

      Of course it is likely to be a platoon. Ellis is a better than average hitter vs LHP. Both players have splits, not huge, but big enough to take advantage of….that was the entire point of acquiring Ellis. If he was left handed, he would not have been a target of the Cardinals. He gives them exactly what they want a CLEAR back up and platoon partner option that also provides depth and plus defense.

      What he is NOT, is competition for the starting job. I’m not sure how many more times Mo has to say that Wong will be the starter before people stop writing silly things like “StL may not believe in him”. Why wouldn’t they? He has performed at every level. Advanced quickly, and improved in all aspects of the game since college. He’ll be out there to sink or swim. If he fails, Ellis will get more ABs, but Ellis is plan B. There is no competition.

      The idea that double play partners require playing with each other daily is kind of silly. Every defender pretty much covers 2B the same way.

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      • Lanidrac says:

        Mozeliak said Wong has the first shot at the job. If his early performance in 2014 resembles that of 2013 after getting up and Ellis is hitting decently, I fully expect Ellis to get most of the starts if/until Wong improves. Contenders can’t afford to let a position “sink or swim” like a rebuilding team can.

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        • Lanidrac says:

          *that of 2013 after getting called up

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        • paperlions says:

          After being called up he averaged about 5 PAs/week, mostly as a PH facing high leverage relievers. Not exactly idea first exposure to MLB pitching…besides the fact that 62 PAs tells you nothing about a players ability. Those 62 PAs are no more predictive than the success Kozma had when called up in 2012.

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  2. Mike D says:

    Every time I see Ellis’s name I think of the Monty Python episode (different first name of course)

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  3. olethros says:

    I’d bet that Tony Cruz and maybe Descalso are the only position players with <400 PA, and nobody cracks 600. Sort of starting lineup musical chairs, and a lot of late-inning defensive replacements.

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    • matt says:

      I would think that Holliday, Carpenter and probably Peralta are likely to crack 600 plate appearances. CF/RF/2B/1B should rotate a lot, essentially 6 players for 4 positions.

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    • Rock Strongo says:

      That sounds like a TLR wet dream

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      • Jeffrey says:

        Yes, and what matt said is correct.

        But Matheny doesn’t rotate as much as TLR did. He tries to let guys play every day and sticks with them sometimes too long.

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  4. jim S. says:

    . . . Matt Adams, a promising . . . uh, player?

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    • PSopko says:

      Had an OPS at 1 stop in the minors of .896…otherwise all well over .9. Primed for a nice year as a regular, I’d think. With regular ABs against lefties, I fully expect him to handle them capably.

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  5. Leo says:

    I think Wong is ahead of Ellis on the depth chart, with Ellis in a backup/platoon/bench role. Certainly that is what the team has said about this signing.

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  6. Ray says:

    I’m a little bit confused by the paragraph about how the Cardinals are at a team age at which they should try to “win now”. The Cardinals were just two games short of a championship. Obviously they’re trying to win again in 2014. What does their team age have to do with a one-year depth signing of a back up middle infielder? Given their needs, that Ellis is a smart signing regardless of roster age.

    Also I don’t really even think it’s right to not call them a young team. According to statista.com they had the 5th youngest team in the MLB in 2013, and now they’ve replaced Beltran with Bourjos, Freese with Wong and Westbrook with Wacha. Ellis and Peralta make the team slightly older, but this is still one of the youngest contending teams in baseball.

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    • Leo says:

      The current window for this team seems to be tied to Molina’s health and productivity. There is no adequate replacement for him anywhere in sight. Holliday and Wainwright are also issues, but seem more manageable to replace if needed. OF other than Holliday, 1B and pitching are full of roughly equivalent interchangeable parts. 2B and SS are expected to be relatively low-performing positions for this team and are therefore more easily replaced (and Wong is of course young). Carpenter is an interesting case because he’s not particularly young and no one knows whether he can continue to play at an elite level. If he’s elite, he’s obviously tough to replace, but that’s a good problem to have.

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      • TheBirds says:

        I guess age is a factor, and there will be some regression and injuries(hopefully mitigated by young players like Wong, Miller, CMart, and Taveras getting better), but I think it’s more important to realize that all of those players are locked up long term. The Cardinals are far from a win now team.

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        • Anon says:

          The Cardinals are far from a win now team.

          The Cardinals are absolutely a win now team. The Peralta contract being frontloaded and signing Ellis at all are strong evidence to support that statement. However, the Cardinals are also a win later team with some important core players under team control for 4+ years, a very strong farm system producing role-players consistently, and payroll flexibility to respond when needs arise.

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        • Ray says:

          How on earth is the Ellis signing evidence of anything more than “Here is a team with money to spend who needed a bench bat, so they went out and got a good one”

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        • stan says:

          I suppose you could say that they aren’t a “win now” team in the sense that there is no desperation to win right away.

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        • Leo says:

          “The Cardinals are absolutely a win now team. . . . However, the Cardinals are also a win later team . . .”

          Does that make them a “win team”? Or maybe just a “team”?

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        • jvetter says:

          They are an always win team.

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    • B N says:

      Well, they want to win now and build so they can win later. Maybe trying to “win in perpetuity” might be a better statement? Hard to argue with their number of playoff appearances over the last decade.

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    • The Cardinals have been in “win now mode” for like a decade.

      They havent rebuilt, but have reloaded by fusing young pitchers with good short-term veteran contracts (Berkman, Beltran), star players, non-prospects (Jay, Craig, Freese, Adams), and depth.

      2011 – WS Camps
      2012 – 1 win from WS
      2013 – WS
      2014 – More talent than 2013?

      Win now? As opposed to rebuilding?

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      • Leo says:

        And the 2014 roster is basically locked up through 2017. This is all they are set to lose before then: Jay (2017 free agent), Bourjos (2017), Choate (2016), Motte (2015), Ellis (2015), Descalso (irrelevant).

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        • Triteon says:

          Upvoted because you called Descalso “irrelevant”. I’ve never understood our fans’ support of DD, other than his willingness to play anywhere on the field in order to cash a paycheck.

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  7. Z S says:

    Wong is definitely ahead of Ellis in the depth chart. Mozeliak said as much just a few weeks ago, saying that he expects Wong will get 500 ABs in 2014. Ellis is there for two reasons:

    1) As a platoon against lefties
    2) As a backup option in case Wong bombs.

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    • Trotter76 says:

      Also, the supply of 2Bs that are willing to accept a backup role but are also capable of being everyday players if necessary is quite limited. Another excellent signing by the Cards.

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  8. jripper1268 says:

    Molina is obviously irreplaceable, however, you could say that about a lot of contending teams: where would Detroit be without Cabrera, or Pittsburgh without McCutchen, or Cinncinatti without Votto, or Los Angeles without Kershaw, or Los Ngeles without Trout, or Oakland without Donaldson.

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  9. Kevin says:

    “Reads and writes obitiuaries in the Greater Toronto Area”. Probably the best bio I’ve ever read.

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  10. ken says:

    The Cardinals are in a position to cover all of their bases assuming injuries are going to happen at some point in the season. That’s why they have kept 7 quality starting pitchers and can leave Oscar Taveras in AAA until June or until someone (Craig, Adams, Holliday, Bourjas or Jay) gets hurt. Ellis can platoon against lefties is Wong has trouble with lefties, cover for a Wong injury, or even become an every day player is Wong hits under .200 like he did in September. Pitching depth allowed the Cards to spend 5 million on Ellis rather than the same amount to keep Axford or Mujica.

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    • Voxx says:

      The only position where an injury would be near debilitating would be at catcher, I think.

      They have some depth, but mostly SP and OF – should be another solid season for St Louis, but probably not quite as many wins as last year. I look for some RISP regression.

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      • Lanidrac says:

        The RISP probably regresses, but the power probably progresses. Craig will likely be back at 20+, maybe a few more from Molina, Adams has a good shot at 30+ playing full-time, Peralta makes a huge difference, Wong has some power, and Carpenter might send some of those doubles over the wall as he develops.

        I also expect it will be exciting to see Wacha pitch a full season instead of Westbrook.

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        • thehotteststove says:

          I’d agree that a small power increase will likely offset some of the sequencing from last year. Additionaly, the baserunning, defense, pitching depth and bench on this team will be far superior to last year’s team so I fully expect a better run differential.

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  11. thehotteststove says:

    “Yes, they have some exciting young talent, especially on the pitching side, but they are not a young team.”

    The average age of their expected starting 8 POSITION players is 28 years old… I understand aging curves, but wouldn’t this be considered VERY young for a contending team? And this is without even considering younger players who seem to be MLB caliber such as Taveras and Piscotty.

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