The Challenges Ahead for Hoyer

Yesterday, we talked about Jed Hoyer potentially taking the post as the Padres new GM. Today, let’s look at two situations which he’ll need to address this off-season.

Adrian Gonzalez

One of the most talented (and underrated) players in the N.L. held a coming out party last season. Gonzalez has been worth at least 3 WAR in every season since 2006, but not many saw a 6 WAR season coming surrounded by a bunch of nothing. Gonzalez is signed in 2010 for $4.75M and the Padres hold a club option worth $5.5M in 2011. When talking about great team contracts, this one has to be mentioned. Kevin Towers signed him to a four-year, $9.5M extension back in April of 2007 and he’s been worth over $50M since. Good deal? No. Great deal.

With such, Gonzalez holds a tremendous amount of trade value. The Red Sox are known to be heavily interested, which likely means the Yankees hold interest too. He’ll turn 28 in May, so there’s no rush to move him due to age and decline concerns. The Jake Peavy deal helped to rebuild the Padres farm system, but there’s still work to be done. Certainly the Padres don’t have to (and seemingly won’t) move him. That won’t stop teams from calling and shouldn’t stop the Padres from listening.

Heath Bell

It’s amazing how one 42 save season is going to change Bell’s perceived value. Since arriving in San Diego back in 2007, Bell has been an extremely solid reliever. He’s posted FIP of 2.50, 3.34, and 2.42; tRA of 2.55, 3.59, 2.45. He’s predominantly a groundball pitcher, but he has some swing-and-miss stuff. Last season he posted a career low HR/FB% of 5.1 which surpasses his previous totals by nearly a full percentage point and should cause some skepticism about a repeat performance quite this good. He’s entering his second year of arbitration and San Diego may be able to cash in on those saves if the right team buys into him.

Given how the Padres shifted into “sell everything” mode last year, this off-season should be a fun one to watch. Will Hoyer attempt to load up for a quick run or will he attempt to rebuild further?



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Kevin S.
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Kevin S.
6 years 10 months ago

Not sure the Yanks would have any interest in Gonzalez. I know everybody thinks they only signed Teixeira to cock-block the Red Sox, but they really did need a first baseman. They don’t need a second one.

Nick
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Nick
6 years 10 months ago

The Yankees don’t have the chips to deal for Gonzalez, they would have to give up too much major league talent (Joba and/or Hughes and/or Cano etc).

JDSussman
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JDSussman
6 years 10 months ago

the Yankees absolutely have enough minor league talent.

Nick
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Nick
6 years 10 months ago

Beyond Montero and Jackson, what do they really have? And if you really look at it, Montero is a DH (or a poor 1B in the NL) and Jackson’s offensive ceiling is very much in doubt.

They have essentially nothing in terms of pitching (Brackman self-immolated this year). Austine Romine is a nice little player, but I still don’t think that’s enough to get a player like Adrian Gonzalez.

Roland
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Roland
6 years 10 months ago

I agree that the Yanks have chips to play with, but they haven’t seemed interested in surrendering talent recently. I can’t think of anyone other then Nady that they’ve acquired via trade and gave up anything of value for (Swisher was had on the cheap, he doesn’t count.) If you have the money to get any FA you want, why not wait the extra year or so and buy them then.

Bodhizefa
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Bodhizefa
6 years 10 months ago

I would imagine acquiring either Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez is at the top of Theo Epstein’s shopping list this off-season.

Snapper
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Snapper
6 years 10 months ago

The Yankees have absolutely no use for Gonzalez.

Teixeira is signed for 6 more years and is an excellent 1B. They need DH for Posada and ARod, and they’re not going to empty the farm system to acquire a, soon to be very expensive, DH. In any case, Gonzalez wouldn’t want to extend his contract to be a DH.

MFG
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MFG
6 years 10 months ago

I would assume that, if indeed Gonzalez goes on the block this winter, he’ll end up in Boston. Hoyer would be most comfortable making player evaluations on BoSox prospects than for organizations he doesn’t have inside info on.

080808
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080808
6 years 10 months ago

I hope there are enough differences in opinions between Hoyer and Epstein evaluating low-level red sox prospects.
If Hoyer convinced of a few lottery tickets Epstein thinks otherwise, Adrian Gonzales can be had without difficulty, I guess.

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