The Chances of a Wandy Rodriguez Trade
This past off-season it seemed as though Wandy Rodriguez would sit near the top of available pitchers at the deadline. The Astros were going nowhere, and Rodriguez was set to hit free agency after the season. But out of nowhere the Astros signed him to a three-year, $34 million contract that covered 2011 through 2013. In itself that’s still a tradable contract, but the $13 million option changed the story. If traded it becomes a player option, which makes a deal far less likely. Written that way, the inclusion of the option clause made it seem as though the Astros intended to keep Rodriguez. And yet here we are in August, hearing talk of a possible waiver trade.
We have four distinct bits of information related to this matter, which may be in conflict with one another.
1) It appears a given that the Astros will place Rodriguez on waivers this month. This isn’t out of the ordinary, since some teams place their entire roster on waivers.
2) According to CBS Sports’s Danny Knobler, there is a “growing belief” that a team out there will place a claim on Rodriguez, thus limiting Houston’s potential trade partners to one.
3) Also from Knobler: the Astros won’t just dump Rodriguez and his contract on a claiming team, but will instead seek a trade in which they receive players and perhaps provide a level of salary relief.
4) Via Jayson Stark, new Astros owner Jim Crane is seeking to lower payroll to $50 million. We had heard a $60 million figure previously.
These bits of information lead to two questions. First, which team would claim Rodriguez, knowing that they could own his entire contract, including the 2014 option? Second, would the Astros actually pull back Rodriguez if they couldn’t work out a trade with a claiming team? Let’s start with the second question first.
While Knobler’s sources say that the Astros won’t just give up Rodriguez, I find it hard to believe that given the current circumstances. The Astros already have $47.25 million committed to the 2012 payroll, and that covers just four players. If the Astros were to pull back Rodriguez, it would make a $50 million payroll nigh impossible. They could attempt to trade him again in the off-season, but it appears that few, if any, teams are willing to take on Rodriguez without receiving salary relief. The payroll restriction makes it seem as though dumping Rodriguez is a priority.
Even if payroll is set at the original level we heard, $60 million, the Astros still could have trouble piecing together a big league roster. Carlos Lee and Brett Myers combine to make $31 million in 2012, which is more than half of that stated budget. They’re not going anywhere, so they might as well budget for a $30 million payroll. Of that Rodriguez will consume more than a third, and combined with Brandon Lyon they’ll take up more than half. Essentially, then, the Astros would have to find 21 players who will make a combined $14 million. Even if all 21 were reserve clause players that would still amount to roughly $9 million. Add in the team’s arbitration cases and it’s likely that they cross that $14 million mark with ease.
The main reason I think the Astros would take the opportunity to dump Rodriguez’s contract involves the extension itself. Again, Rodriguez was slated to hit free agency after this season. The only thing that prevented him from walking was the extension, which he signed under a GM that likely won’t be around this off-season. If other teams are seeking salary relief in a trade for Rodriguez, and he would have been a free agent after this season anyway, why not just dump him on the claiming team if a favorable trade isn’t in the cards?
It make sense, then, that the Astros would broadcast their intention to pull back Rodriguez rather than dump his salary. It might lure a team into claiming him. But I don’t believe other GMs are that blind. Any claiming team has to know that there is a real risk the transaction. It’s not only possible, but I’d consider it likely that a claiming team would end up with Rodriguez at $36 million from 2012 through 2014. Perhaps there is a team out there that would have signed him to such a deal through free agency, had the Astros not signed him to an extension. Only that type of team would dare put in a claim.
The teams that could easily take on Rodriguez’s salary — the Yankees and Red Sox — appear not at all inclined to do so. The Yankees already asked for significant salary relief when talking trade with the Astros in July, and the Red Sox already have four starters under contract for 2012. It’s also unclear whether Rodriguez would fare well with a move to one of the two toughest divisions in baseball. Any other team would have some level of concern with picking up that much money for the next three seasons.
The Indians, Tigers, Rangers, and Angels could probably use the help in the rotation, if not for this season then certainly in 2012, but they all have internal options who could provide decent production. The Indians are the most interesting here, since they just traded their best two pitching prospects. They acquired Jimenez with an eye on the next few years, and Rodriguez would make them stronger in that period. But the question of salary remains, and I doubt the Indians would risk putting in a claim. Maybe with a bit of salary relief, but I can’t see them taking on the entire thing.
National League teams would get first crack at Rodriguez, but it’s unclear which team has the available payroll to risk putting in a claim. The Brewers are a real interesting team to watch here. They have a solid five starters, but Chris Narveson will miss at least three starts after cutting his thumb. But Rodriguez would represent an upgrade over Narveson, anyway, and would give the Brewers five solid starters for 2012 as well. The payroll issue is a big question, especially if they’ll make a big play for Prince Fielder this off-season. But they remain the most intriguing possibility in the NL.
Because there are so few teams that would risk the possibility of having Rodriguez and his salary dumped in their laps, it remains unlikely that any team will claim Rodriguez on waivers. There might be a growing belief that a team will make a claim, but if we examine the whole picture it just doesn’t seem feasible. It also doesn’t seem feasible that the Astros would pull back Rodriguez rather than dump him wholesale on a claiming team. They need to cut payroll, and Rodriguez represents a decent chunk of their 2012 commitments. They might prefer to get something in return, but they’re not in a position to be picky right now.
The Nationals have the money and could use another starter.
Also, I don’t think the Astros are just dumping payroll. They are willing to spend money in the short term if it means young inexpensive commodities in the long run. They have given the Phillies (of all teams) money two years in a row (once in the Oswalt deal; once in the Pence deal) in exchange for better prospects.
I shudder to think at the package they would have received for Roy Oswalt if money hadn’t been involved then. Anthony Gose-Jon Villar-JA Happ was the deal with ‘better’ prospects?
Yes, yes it was. Considering that Wade had his hands tied by the NTC and the trade demand, he did fine to get those guys. If Villar or Wallace turn out to be major league regulars for 5 to 10 years, that deal will be a good one for Houston.
While I agree that objectively, it makes sense for the Astros to dump Rodriguez for nothing in return, why do you think they would actually do so?
Ed Wade signs Wandy Rodriguez to an extension. Wandy Rodriguez pitches as well as can be expected. So then a few months later, Ed Wade decides to give away Wandy Rodriguez and his new contract for free? That’s just weird.
And why dismiss the Red Sox just because they have 4 starters already? Um, teams use 5+ starters. And the Sox (Lester/Beckett/Lackey/Buchholz/Matsuzaka) have demonstrated a philosophy of filling all 5 slots with quality. If the price is only money, I don’t see why the Sox wouldn’t be interested.
A typical Ken Williams move would be to claim him and trade one of the Sox better minor league pitching prospects, then let Buerhle walk and/or trade Danks/Floyd in the offseason.
Yes, that’s exactly how Kenny operates. Did your mommy drop you on your head when you were a child?
oh my god that 13 mil player option is disgusting
Even with the option, the contract is fair for a pitcher with Wandy’s talents. I’m not sure why he’s so underrated–his average annual value per WAR has been $13.775M since 2007, so even in that final, expensive player option year, it’s possible he could still be providing surplus value. Even if you work in some regression as he ages, you’re still looking at a pretty fair deal.
Agreed. It is bizarre that teams will balk at taking back a player making, as here, $36 mil over three years when these same teams would, if given the opportunity, give that same player $36 mil over three years if he were available as a free agent. I’m not sure that Wandy Rodriguez wouldn’t be the Yankees’ #2 starter in 2012 and 2013. Also, one has to think that the two big spenders, New York and Boston, are kind of freaking out right now about how unbeatable the Phillies suddenly look. Grabbing Wandy Rodriguez off of waivers might only represent a marginal improvement for either New York or Boston but that marginal improvement is arguably necessary if these two teams want to beat Philly in the Series.
I highly disagree with this — even on Boston and New York, Rodriguez wouldn’t be a top 3 starter. The difference a #4 starter makes is pretty negligible. All of his defense independent stats have him as a league average pitcher in the worst division in baseball. I don’t see how he’s an upgrade over many of the options playoff caliber teams have (except maybe the Tigers) and at $13 mil a year, who bother really?
It’s the fact that he gets older every year. The Yankees don’t want another AJ Burnett
How is Wandy Rodriguez “another A.J. Burnett”? Burnett was a proven flake when the Yankees grossly overpaid him; his mediocrity and inconsistency with the Yankees was fairly predictable. Rodriguez has been one of the better starting pitchers in MLB for the last several years, #26 among all pitchers in WAR from 2007 to 2010. How is $36 mil over a three year period too much money for a player of this caliber? Burnett is averaging $16.5 mil/year and hasn’t been as good as Rodriguez, who averages $12 mil/year, so how is this an appropriate comparison?
Again, I don’t understand why multiple teams wouldn’t grab him if he were to be waived, and I also don’t understand why an organization intent on slashing as much payroll as possible wouldn’t waive him and let somebody have him in exchange for nothing, since the Astros obviously shopped him all season long and couldn’t get anything resembling a decent or even mediocre offer.
How was Burnett a “proven flake”? He was an extremely talented pitcher that always had pretty good results WHEN HEALTHY.
The knock on AJ was always his durability. When the Yankees signed him, that was the outcry, that he would spend 50% of his contract on the DL.
SINCE then, he’s turned into an incredibly DURABLE pitcher with erratic results.
All this crap about him being a headcase prior to signing is revisionist bullcrap.
Sure, he’s been worth $12M or $13M per year (dunno where you got your number), and that’s why its possible a team will claim him. But his contract will pay him $12M/year. And that’s a 3-year deal for a pitcher (which means significant risk). So no one’s going to want to give up prospects when there’s no surplus value, and the risks associated with a signing a pitcher to a 3-year deal.
Question: If Wandy is claimed and the Astros were to just let him go, would his 2014 option vest? Technically he wasn’t traded, or was he?
This is an awesome question
Agreed. You could see the option being phrased either in terms of Rodriguez leaving the Astros to pitch for another major league team during the life of the contract, or as the Astros actually consummating a trade in which they send him somewhere else in exchange for some sort of consideration from the acquirer. I would have to think that there’s pretty standard language for vesting options of this type, but unless I’m mistaken, player contracts are rarely made available to the press or public; rather, only the financial summary and incentive terms are made available.
‘Traded’ isn’t a technical term. He’d be assigned to another team, and the option would vest.
The Royals should claim him.
I agree. No chance they’re going to develop 5 serviceable starters with the next 3 years. They need at least ONE solid veteran, or they’ll end up like the Orioles.
I’m guessing your post is entirely sarcastic, but the O’s have one solid veteran, in Guthrie, and look where it’s gotten them… he’s a much better value than Wandy too.
I disagree. I can’t imagine the Royals would want to sink $10M plus per year into a hurler such as Wandy Rodriguez’ considering his age, the organization’s current & short term standing &, oh yeah, his contract.
the counterargument to the contract concern is the royals’ rotation outlook from 12-14.
hochevar/duffy/paulino are the only royals with decent ML starter experience that are under team control through at least 2012 [paulino/hoch through 2014]
none of those guys are #1 guys, and sadly none of them will probably be #2 guys. the royals need top of the rotation arms, and you can’t let intoxication with a mike montgomery or a jake odorizzi prevent you from grabbing an available top of the rotation guy, especially since even if some royals prospects get around the whole TINSTAAPP thing, they probably won’t be top of the rotation caliber in their first year or two in the bigs.
if they’re serious about contending, they have to consider wandy. the royals don’t get quality arms for market value. this might be their chance, even if he’s oldish and switching to the big boys league.
Is $36 million over the next 3 years really that bad? Edwin Jackson and C.J. Wilson will probably get more this offseason and probably aren’t better bets than the Wand.
They’re both significantly younger and have done it in divisions other than the NL Central (and I reaaaaaaaaally doubt Jackson gets that anyway)
You eating-shit nuts if you think Wandy is anywhere near C.J. Wilson
He said better “bets”, and Wandy has a longer track record as a starter than Wilson.
I’m kind of shocked about the view of Wandy from the GM point of view too.
I don’t understand why all of these teams view salary relief as such a priority. Almost every SP post arbitration (that doesn’t totally suck) is paid in excess of $8m per season. You’d have to think that if the Yanks/Sox are willing to stomach Burnett/Lackey, then why is having Wandy at $12m per year too much? I mean, he’s left handed and he’s posted 4 straight years of under a 4 ERA/FIP/xFIP. He’s better than Randy Wolf and Ted Lilly, signed to virtually the same contract as them for the same ages, but no one is interested? I don’t get it.
Newest undervalued asset = >30 year old Lefty SP?
It doesn’t matter how undervalued a guy is… if you don’t have the money, you don’t have the money. Even if your intelligence says you need blood, if all you have is a stone to squeeze it from, you’re not going to get what you need no matter how bad you want it.
BTW… neither Randy Wolf or Ted Lilly are signed through 2014… and neither make the money Rodriguez will… and both of their teams had far more money to spend, or at least the Dodgers were pretending they did.
“Neither make the money Rodriguez will”
Lilly signed a 3 year, 36 million dollar deal. Wandy has how much left on his deal? Is that 3 years and 36 million dollars?
Might want to look up how much Ted Lilly’s contract is actually worth.
I don’t really get it. It seems like Wandy has a little positive value at that contract. I find it hard to believe that no one would want him.
How many teams are out there that a) have a hole in their rotation, b) are still competing for 2011, and c) can afford to pay a pitcher $36M/3 ? It’s not like the offseason, when there’s a large market of teams seeking players and every team is re-stocking its roster.
Let’s consider this essentially a free agent acquisition. If the Astros released Rodriguez tomorrow, and he became a free agent, how much could he get on the open market? I doubt he could get $36M/3.
why does it have to be a team competing in 2011?
I think he would get more than 3/36. That’s the point. Someone else mentioned the Nats, and I think that’s a good fit. Assuming they want to increase payroll over the next couple of years I would absolutely take on Wandy at that contract if I were them.
Right now he is better than every one of the O’s pitchers, and with the combination of Vlad and Lee coming off the books next year, as well as the fact that they have a lot of money they can spend if the want to, I could see them as a good fit seeing that they dont have to fork up any prospects. Even if he underperforms by a little bit on that contract, he would still be beneficial to them. Toronto could take a fly on him too, as they have a lot of free money going forward as well.
NO! he is not someone the O’s should ever consider signing. He will get rocked in the AL East and they are not at a point in their pathetic rebuild yet that they have any use for an (at best) average NL pitcher making 13 mill a year. I could see a team who is on the cusp of winning making this move if they believe the rotation depth is worth it. The O’s are a long way from winning.
Yes, he should be someone any team should consider if they can afford him, and he provides a near equal value to his contract, which he does. No one has any idea what will happen in the next three years, and it makes no sense to me why people think its dumb to pay money to people before they are in contention, you will just sit there selling people every year hoping that one day all your prospects come together to make you contend overnight.
The NL central is the weakest division in baseball primarily because of the team Wandy pitches for. If Randy Wolf can get 3/30, Wandy is probably going to be worth his contract.
Veteran Lefty 2/3 starters sign for $12m a year every year.
Amongst starting pitchers that have pitched at least 400 innings since the start of the 2009 season, Wandy is 25th in FIP and 19th in K/9. Not half bad.
I had always been under the impression that the team placing the player on waivers was not able to just ‘dump’ the player on the claiming team, that a trade still had to be worked out and approved by each team. What part of the waiver process am I missing?
You missed the Alex Rios claim(pure salary dump).
Usually, if a player is claimed and a trade can’t be worked out, the player is ‘pulled back’ from waivers by the team that owns him, and no transaction occurs.
But if they don’t do that, the other team is on the hook. That’s why a team should never place a claim on a player whose contract they don’t want to be stuck with. Kenny Williams got both Alex Rios and Manny Ramirez this way.
Usually, if a player is grossly overpaid, he will pass through waivers unclaimed. He can then be traded to any team.
If Wandy passes through the NL, the Tigers seem the likely candidate to claim him and land him without compensation. The Tigers don’t have a lefty and could use one against the AL Central opponents and their LH hitters. Detroit’s RH pitchers not named Verlander have had a hard time getting through Cleveland’s 6 LH hitters in it’s lineup. Then, there is the Twins and Sox, who will play spoilers and have a slew of LH hitters. Secondly, Wandy would replace Brad Penny next year (and this year too) as a fifth starter and the Tigers gain salary as they lose Ordonez’s ($10 million) and Guillen’s ($13 million) salary. Wandy is an upgrade to Penny, who was paid $1.5 million this year. Third, I don’t think that third year vests if the Astros let him go on a waiver claim. If so it would be worth it for the Tigers. Fourth, if the Tigers make the playoffs they will use a three man rotation formed from Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello or Fister.
Teams rarely use 3-man rotations anymore. And I doubt the Tigers would see enough difference in Scherzer and Porcello and Doug Fister to risk overextending their young arms for marginal improvements in 1 or 2 extra starts in the playoffs.
The option does not vest if he gets traded, claimed or otherwise… if Wandy Rodriguez is on another team before 2014, it becomes a player option… one that he’ll surely activate, but until that happens, nothing makes it ‘vest’.
The Tigers have Jacob Turner ready to rock next season, and $25M-ish coming off the books. If they claimed Rodriguez (agree that they could use a lefty), then it probably necessitates that they move one of Scherzer, Porcello & Fister (probably Scherzer), which is feasible if they are able to fill one of the lineup holes for 2012 via trade (2B, LF – assume 3B only requires a stopgap until Castellanos is ready). Free agent 2B options are limited and/or expensive, so trading for a cost-controlled 2B might make the most sense.
What about the Padres? They’re reportedly looking to increase payroll over the next couple of years, and while they’re not in contention this year, they’d have Wandy until 2014. And a move to the NL West, especially with half his starts in Petco, shouldn’t hurt his production.
@ 30 lackey got 5/75
@ 31 Dempster got 4/52
@ 31 Burnett got 5/84
@ 33 Arroyo got 3/34
@ 34 Lilly got 3/33
Wandy has show better numbers than all of them and people are balking at giving him 3/36, Im not sure i get it.
think about the teams though. they’re all bigger market teams who have the money (or in LAD’s case pose to have the money)
Except Cincinnati… but everybody thought the Arroyo extension was stupid at the time.
Comparing Rodriguez now to Dempster coming off his first year returning to the rotation is ridiculous. Dempster has also provided surplus value in each of his years since signing that deal AND deferred a big chunk of money in one of them.
The question is not whether Rodriguez is worth 3/36… it’s having to commit through 2014 and help out a team that is desperate to move him and should make the cost of acquiring him even less. I wouldn’t be so desperate to have Wandy Rodriguez on my team that I’m willing to pass up the chance to get him for 3/$30 instead.
Regarding the Brewers, absolutely no chance they claim Wandy. They can’t afford it and are only going to lose narveson for 3 starts. I don’t see Wandy as a significant upgrade over narveson when comparing their salaries and how they would effect the team.
It’s worth noting that the neither the new owner or the current GM have said that the $50 million (or $60 million) payroll is a goal or requirement. So far, what we have are members of the sports media saying that anonymous executives of other clubs claim that Crane has ordered the rumored budget level. Since the executives of other clubs have their own motivations for driving down Wandy’s trading price, I don’t automatically take the specific budget level claims at face value.
This would be the type of move Arizona would make, pre-Kevin Towers.
But I think he’s too cheap to go out and get a guy like this when he can have Jason Marquis take the ball every 5 days…
Steven is a jinx.