The Chicago Cubs Need Less Jim Hendry
The Chicago Cubs general manager, Jim Hendry, has been described by many as a lame duck, but team owner Tom Ricketts may want to get out the hunting rifle now before the situation deteriorates any further.
Hendry took over the Cubs GM position midway through the 2002 season and has never quite assembled the impressive major league team comparable to the impressive farm system he built in the late 1990s. Once touted for assembling a farm system that included future stars like Corey Patterson, Mark Prior, Eric Patterson, Felix Pie, Rich Hill, and (hey, mildly positive ones!) Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano, Hendry is now widely considered a neither great nor terrible GM.
His on-the-field product reflects that dichotomy:
His great times (2008, 2004) have been great; his good times (2003, 2007, 2009) have been okay; and his bad times (2005, 2006, 2010, 2011) have been numerous.
For comparison’s sake, examine the recent history of Billy Beane, the Oakland A’s GM, who is considered above average and under-resourced:
With a fraction of the payroll, Beane keeps his teams more competitive even on the downswings.
Quite recently, Hendry purged the upper levels of the Cubs minor league system — in the process releasing one of my all-time favorite authorial outfielders, Fernando Perez (since signed by the Mets). Hendry has taken his youth movement seriously, only falling short of claiming anyone older than 25 should be fired. Out of a cannon.
In the process of this unusual lame duck house cleaning, Hendry made this curious claim:
Why would we trade anybody who we think is going to help us next year or the years after? I would say if we move anyone it would be somebody we clearly knew wouldn’t be back. We’re not going to move people that we think are going to help us. Why would I trade Sean Marshall? Why would I trade Darwin Barney? Those calls kind of stop quickly. It makes no sense.
I do not want to imply it is a bad idea to trade a 25-year-old infielder who derives almost all his worth from replacement value, but I do find it strange Hendry is charting the stars for this sinking ship. It would appear Hendry believes two quite unlikely true things:
(a) He will be GM of the Chicago Cubs next year.
(b) The Cubs will be competitive next year.
Unlike last year, when the Cubs started the season with an unsustainably bad one-run record, this year’s rendition has suffered from a holistic lack of organizational talent. The Cubs management, ownership, and Kool Aid fans have blamed injuries — but injuries happen every year to every team.
The Cubs have given starts to 10 different pitchers this year, which might seem like a lot until we consider that league-leading teams like the Phillies (7) and Red Sox (9) have also used more than the basic five starters. Moreover, the Cubs have gone through more starters than other teams largely because of ineffectiveness, not injury (such as the sad cases of Doug Davis, James Russell, and Casey Coleman).
But the issue at hand is less about the Cubs failures in 2011, but more about the incomprehensible analysis. Yes, you should trade someone who can be valuable in future years if the return exceeds the cost.
Let us conduct a thought experiment:
-
I offer my friend, say Fernando, a book of poetry. He offers me, in return, a $300 baseball bat from Modell’s. I may like my $15 poetry book, but a $300 baseball bat is worth much more. And even if it does not fit my present situation (it does, though, if you’re reading this ‘Nando), then I could still flip the bat for $300 cash — or, if I get all Andrew Friedman on this situation, an Aventador LP 700-4 Lamborghini with a Bose sound system and an ability to play second and right.
The point here is: Yes, the likes of Geovany Soto, Darwin Barney, Sean Marshall, Marlon Byrd, or Jeff Baker may help the team in the near future, but they have already helped the present team to a losing record. This is not a championship roster.
If Hendry is allowed to finish the season — as many suspect will happen — he may well put the team in a furthered position of disadvantage by not taking advantage of players such as Barney and Baker at the height of their perceived value. The 2012 Cubs have very little chance at being competitive, but the 2011 Cubs could push them further along with a much overdue fire sale and subsequent rebuild, a la the 2005 Tampay Bay Rays.
Jim Hendry’s regime has been notorious for its anti-statistical bent. At present, they have one man running advanced statistical analysis for the organization, Ari Kaplan. Many have speculated Kaplan may be member of Ricketts’ new regime, but that new wave cannot come soon enough. With the Cubs’ advanced resources and lackluster division, a progressive, intelligent, and capable front office could quickly make the Cubs into long-term, consistent contenders.
But presently, the Cubs franchise is in a state of disarray. It is time, right now, for the Cubs to move on without Jim Hendry.
Update: Let’s put this one to bed: The Cubs are not bad in 2011 because of injuries to their starters. They are bad because of a whole myriad of things (starting with fielding, hitting, base running, and then pitching) — and one of those happens to be organizational depth. Filling in Andrew Cashner‘s spot with a cavalcade of past-primers has been a perfect example of this:
However, the Cubs top-four starters this year have been their top-four starters — which is common for most teams.
THANK YOU. Preaching this for a year or two now
No problem!
The problem with the Cubs is a lack of a philosophy and dedication. This stems back to Andy Mc”Fail” — the cubs say hey we’re going young. Then they get flash-in-the-pan luck success for 3 months, and change strategies and focus on winning now. Ditto in the 00′s. Cubs also tried to build a “sellable” team in 2006 to the detriment of wise investments. Lilly turned out to be a huge win, but all of those ’06 contracts were incredibly risky
And who the hell told Jim Hendry that “opt out” clauses, “No Trade Clauses” and “player options” were must-adds to every FA signing!?!?!
Most of his “no trade clauses” are redundant anyway….
haha James, best Fangraphs comment I’ve ever seen.
So the disabled list stays of all five Opening Day starters is just a figment of my imagination? No, no, please continue on with your hatchet job and don’t let little things like facts get in the way.
Look, injury has been part of the reason that the cubs have given all these starts to undeserving people, but why go out and pay for “crafty vets” to stink when you can let some stinky minor lg pitchers sink or swim to the same effect? James Russell is not a MLB pitcher, IMO. I’d have rather just thrown Jay Jackson, for all his struggles, into the mix and say “go for it, tiger”
Point of order: James Russell is by no means an MLB *starting* pitcher. In his proper role as a LOOGY, he is a perfectly useful member of a bullpen. Split hairs all we want about the marginal value of the 4th/5th arm out of the pen, but he has been highly effective this year out of the pen. If we pull up his splits, we have a .546 OPS-against, 3.50 K/BB, 0.87 WHIP, and 2 HR and 6 BB in over 30 innings. He doesn’t strike a lot of guys out, but his 1.35 ERA/3.11 FIP/3.98 xFIP out of the pen isn’t awful. He’s a flyball heavy pitcher, granted, but it’s hard to say a guy with a 12.5% LD rate out of the pen (13.6% on the year overall) is not MLB-level. And his FB rate is consistent with last year, so all those LDs from 2010 are groundballs in 2011.
I know, I’m pretty much done with Jim Hendry, too, but including a second-year lefty reliever as one of the issues with the team? Just hurting your argument.
Yes. This should have been a puff piece defending a man who thought Dempster and Zambrano would mean a competitive team. In almost every capacity the Cubs starters have been ineffective.
Mrs Hendry? Is that you?
Gimme a break guy. Garza missed a couple of starts, but did anyone really missing the starts of Zambrano/Wells/Dempster? The product on the field is downright ghastly, and who’s responsible for that?
I’d definitely rather have Rodrigo Lopez, Doug Davis, James Russell or Casey Coleman starting than Zambrano, Wells, Dempster, or Cashner… oh wait no I wouldn’t.
You missed the point. Even when those guys are healthy, they’re mediocre pitchers.
Mediocre is all they would need to be around a .500 team currently and in contention for the NLC.
I am not sure what this stat is now a couple games after the AS break, but heading into it, the Cubs were above .500 when Zambrano, Dempster, & Garza started a game. Anyone else, the Cubs were 20 games under.
Ryan Dempster? Seriously? The guy’s been top 15/20 in the majors since he became a starter. Look it up.
The guy’s not funny, but he can definitely pitch. Converting him is one of the very best things the Cubs did in the last few years. He has one bad April, and suddenly he’s mediocre? Pur-leeese.
And Big-Z and Wells are league average guys, Z maybe a little better (never a FIP- over 100 if I recall; wait, just let me check… Yes, I do recall! Actually this year he’s at 102. But historically, you see, historically). Wells is not very good this year. But I’d back him to get ahead of mediocrity (however slightly) again next year. Call them mediocre this year (on this Cubs team, mediocrity stands out), sure, but don’t say with such disdain, Fangraphs coommunity!
And Ryan Dempster has a 3.35 xFIP this year. Ryan Dempster rules the Wrigley mound and my heart.
Alright mediocre might be underselling Demp, but not by that much. Big Z is mediocre. Sorry, but for $18M a year, I like my pitchers to be jis’ a tad better than league average.
You need to quit sugar coating this team. It’s crap filled crap wrapped in crap and deep fried in crap. They’re lone allstar was a 21 year old SS. Love the kid, but think about that. They’re not a Pujols away from contention.
A bad roster is why the Cubs suck. If you want to blame it on injuries, you’re as delusional as Hendry.
Luckily for Cubs fans, no one cares if they win.
You’re saying that just to get a rise out of people like me, right?
You are factually correct that all 5 opening day starters have spent time on the DL, but don’t you agree that is proven irrelevant by the graph up above? The pool of starts of all Cub games have been overwhelmingly made by 4 of the 5 opening day starters.
If the Cubs had a ‘normal’ amount of injuries, how good do you think they’d be exactly? The Cubs are 21 games under .500 and the 2nd worst team in baseball. What would their current record be if they had an amount of injuries more in line with what you expected? Is that record good enough for you to think the Cubs are in a good position going forward with their current leadership?
To be a smart ass, I didn’t know they played the Opening Day game five times.
I think my problem with this graph (and the points being made above) is it assumes just because a guy is taking the ball he’s his 100% normal self. Wells in particular hasn’t been nearly the same guy he was last year or the year before.
THAT SAID, yes it was pretty clear before the season that this team sucked. They had the slimmest chance of competing if everything broke exactly right, and it clearly did not. Changes clearly need to be made. Barney doesn’t have a lot of long-term value, but I’m not sold that they NEED to trade Marshall. He’s been excellent, he came up as a starter … what they ought to do is stretch him out and put him back in the rotation. Could be Dempster II.
Also when you’re talking about trading players for prospects the return is only potentially better in the long run. There are no guarantees there. If you’re talking about a player like Barney who is going to be pretty easily replaced for his entire career … yes, do it. If you’re talking about dealing Marshall for a prospect? No, I don’t think the long term return necessarily exceeds the cost.
Are you trying to defend this team? It’s a hot-headed sack of money (Zambrano), an overpaid-for #2/3 (Garza, who cost half of the farm’s top-end), an OK veteran that SHOULD be dealt to a contender to fix the gaping farm holes (Dempster), an overrated #5/6 (Wells, who sohuld have been dealth after 2009), and a random assortment of retards (Lopez, Davis, Russell as a starter, Ortiz, Coleman) that starts the games.
Then we get into the offense, where the best player is 21 (Castro, and it’s not exactly a contest), a backup MI starting at 2B (Barney), another veteran that should be a farm restocking chip (Ramirez, but Hendry gave him a NTC), a guy I vouched for as a FA signing (Pena, but not for $10 million), a top-5 worst contract in baseball for the past 5 years and next 3 (Soriano), yet ANOTHER veteran that should be gone (Byrd), and a RF that is a 4th OF on a good team and making #2 OF money (Fukudome).
So then we reach the late inning, where we get visits from the worst reliever in baseball (Grabow), a lost closer who seems more luck than good (Marmol), a really nice lefty that could fetch a lot in a weak lefty market (Marshall), a failed SP prospect that was a nice closer, then a bad closer, now a nice setup guy (Wood, but i’m OK with keeping him), and a random mess (Russell is an ok lefty–more reason to move Marshall, Mateo, Berg, Samardzija, and the rest of the morons that have failed in the ‘pen).
Oh, and I forgot Soto, the 2008 RotY that has almsot as many shoulder problems as Mark Prior (he’s my favorite player, so I can make that joke).
Castro, Marshall, and Marmol are the only players I would comfortably call above-average for their roles (Garza is in the ace role while not an ace, and Dempster’s the #2 while really being a #3). We’re holding on to bums like Baker and DeWitt as well, and prospects aren’t even getting a chance to progress in the majors.
Nothing about this team is run correctly. If you think that this team is anywhere near league-average now or next season (unless a MAJOR overhaul is undertaken), you’re just a baseball-watching football fan.
FanGraphs Needs Less Bradley Woodrum
Zing!
You had it coming, all those baby seals and Cub games you’ve gone to. You had it coming.
*baby seals clubbed
This is a long time coming. Hendry managed to take a 2008 team that nearly won 100 games and completely blew it all up. He started it all with the Soriano contract, and then he sealed the short term fate by moving DeRosa and signing Bradley over Dunn and Ibanez in the off season before 2009. Absolutely brutal GM.
Both Dunn and Ibanez have performed below replacement level this season. I agree that the Cubs need to replace Jimbo, but the failure to sign one of those two isn’t the best evidence for Hendry’s pink slip.
They have both performed much better than Milton Bradley did over the past 3 seasons. None of the three is a winner this year, but obviously Bradley was the worst choice of those 3.
Dunn was pretty darn good in ’09 though when the Cubs were still actually a decent team. And he really wanted to sign with the them too (with how he’d hit at Wrigley in his career, who could blame him?)but the Cubs weren’t interested. He wouldn’t have cost any more than Bradley back then.
In all fairness, the Soriano contract was precipitated by the team’s sale to the Ricketts family. Moreover, Hendry did make a number of good signings — such as Ted Lilly, Mark DeRosa, and Carlos Pena.
For Eddie: I’m not talking about this season. I’m talking about 2009 and 2010.
For Bradley: The Soriano contract happened under the Tribune Company. The Cubs signed Soriano to a deal that was well above what other teams were reported to have offered. Also, I don’t know that I would yet consider Carlos Pena a good signing. He has to put up a WAR around 2.5 for me to feel the contract was at least league average.
The issue is that the bad of Jim tail-spinned into a crippling effect. The bad has far outweighed any goodness.
Soriano, Zambrano, Fukudome, and Aramis… 4 huge contracts totaling $350M in guaranteed money… all signed in a year’s worth of time, and 3 of them have been a total disaster. So, with the sale of the team, and the roster falling apart, the Cubs have been left with no other choice but to wait things out until they shed these issues.
Meanwhile, his experience, as a past Director of Player Development, in charge of both Scouting and Minor League Operations, seems to have contributed to a very below average farm system over the years with a number of failed/failing top draft picks and prospects.
I also see the Dusty Baker hiring/era as being questionable. It was clear that Dusty did not have a grasp on controlling/handling their situation.
This job has been over his head for a while now.
If you don’t think signing Carlos Pena for one year was a good idea when they had zero in-house replacements ready, look at what Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Derrek Lee and Lyle Overbay have done. Whatever WAR mark he does or doesn’t hit, pales to the impact of signing one of the above to any kind of contract.
He went for it, it didn’t happen. Now it’s over. Let’s move on.
I don’t hate Jim Hendry but new faces and new times are needed. May they be very unlike the present, most-suckiest, of times.
By it, I do mean the World Series. And those 07/08/09 teams (yes, ’09, Milton Bradley and all, that team looked really good on Opening Day) could have/should have done it. Only one team gets to win. Someday that team will be the Cubs. It’s not easy. Easy is hating the Yankees. The swine.
Why was moving DeRosa bad? That brought in Archer (who was retardedly moved for Garza), and DeRosa has become nothing more than an annual wrist surgery bill for his present team.
Bradley wasn’t signed over Dunn, since 2008 and 2010 aren’t the same season. Dunn can’t even outhit Carlos Pena, so that doesn’t bother me anyway. Ibanez would have been better, I guess, but the real answer was Abreu, who had some speed to go with his horrid defense (unlike Bradley and Ibanez).
DeRosa was the heart of the team, and it left multiple holes in the lineup.
Oh, and Bradley signed 1/6/09 with the Cubs for 3/30, Dunn signed 2/11/09 with the Nats for 2/20. Dunn posted a .386 wOBA (17th highest of qualified hitters) in 1316 PA over the 2 years of his deal. Milton on the other hand, .345 wOBA in just 473 PA before being suspended for the rest of the season for being a total a*hole from game one on.
Dunn would have been light-years better then Bradley (although, really, anyone else would have too so…)
I worded that poorly. Obviously the Soriano contract was pre-2008.
Isn’t “derives almost all his worth from replacement value” just a complicated way of saying “league average player”?
Maybe. There are a number of people who mistrust the replacement value calculations in WAR. That statement was phrased in deference to them.
I don’t see why it matters what the replacement value is. The runs above average is figured first, and then converted to RAR by adding the difference between replacement and average. Barney comes out to about average as long as the batting, running, and fielding components are accurate (relative to average).
Yes, his combined numbers (baserunning, fielding, batting) rate his performance so far as very slightly better than average (whether that’s his true performance level is another question). It would be a lot less confusing to just say that.
I agree with just about everything in the piece, except the swipe at Barney. I’m a bit of a fan-boy on this one, but he seems to be a very alert and motivated player who might just have been taught those elusive “fundamentals” somewhere, and is an above-average player (albeit slightly and with room for error) in his first season of MLB ball, at 25. Given the lack of talent, skill, and motivation elsewhere on the field, Barney seems like the least of our problems.
If motivation gets you 17 XBH and 10 BBs, I’ll take an unmotivated Aramis Ramirez and his 25 doubles, 17 HRs and 20 BBs. “The Motivation” (think The Situation) is dropping an awesome 51% GB% and a 12% IFFB%. I wish he were a little more motivated to get the ball out of the infield.
But you are right, for a cost controlled guy, he isn’t the issue with this team. But a 25 year old no power, no OBP rookie is also not an answer to “What is a starting caliber 2nd basemen in MLB?”
BS – As you must know, my comments don’t imply that I prefer motivation to talent. I’ll also take an unmotivated Ramirez over a motivated Ham Sandwich, as long as we’re playing that game.
I miss Hai Juk Lee :(
And Hee-Seop Choi!
the difference here is that hak-ju lee is good.
Why would he trade Marshall or Barney? Lord knows they’ve helped them this year to a sub .400 winning %, maybe next year they can do the same! #facepalm
what’s the farm system look like? is there an impact bat to replace byrd or fukodome a year or so away?
Brett Jackson will be starting CFer by year’s end.
Ugly — jackson, szczur are the only guys who look like ML’s at this point, maybe Flaherty
The farm system is far from impressive right now. They do have Brett Jackson, however, who just moved up to AAA. Jackson hits for decent power and has above average speed.
Marc has a full run down here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-10-prospects-the-chicago-cubs/
great link thanks!
The farm system is pretty solid from AA on down, especially the Daytona squad. Tim Wilken is about as good as it gets as a scouting director and Hendry was pretty solid in that department as well before his promotion to assistant GM and then GM. Sliding Hendry back into scouting and player development would be a better idea than just dismissing him altogether. This team is obviously not ready to compete now but this can be a real good club in a couple years.
If there was an impact player to replace them, they would’ve probably been replaced already. The whole point is to trade them in hopes of receiving an impact player. Who cares who plays the outfield now? What’s the difference between losing 80 games or 100?
“What’s the difference between losing 80 games or 100?”
If you’re the damned Cardinals, a World Series victory.
This is the real story…and has been for decades, especially where position players are concerned. This organization has done almost zilch with regards to position player talent for decades.
Seriously, try to name them since the mid-80′s (before that even). The Castro kid looks pretty good early, even if he moves to another position, but this system is beyond brutal, and it is year after year after year.
I don’t even necessarily believe they keep picking the wrong kids every June, I think the whole system is screwed up from within. Whenever the Cubs do crank out a kid he always seems to have the strikezone discipline of Corey Patterson and that’s been the case for decades, not years. Absolutely brutal.
BS
Geovany Soto is what you’ve come up with? You want to hang your hat on Geovany Soto? Good luck with that…
Every second year, Geovany Soto is really, really good.
Brett Jackson should take a walk in the majors. Unfortunately he’ll also K over 30% of the time, meaning the bad times and the struggles are going to come early and come hard.
Hurrah for the big kid who plays 1st!
No one’s “hanging their hat” on Geovany Soto. Soto’s .263/.355/.459 line is pretty damn good for a catcher, though. Weird that you just dismissed him like that, though. Would you rather have Jeff Mathis catching? Miguel Olivo? Pierzynski?
There’s nothing wrong w/Soto. That wasn’t the point. What I’m saying is you can’t hang your hat on Soto, Grace and a few other position players the Cubs have managed to produce…in like three decades plus. The numbers do not lie. I thought that was pretty clear.
As a Cubs fan I’d like to say “Woodrum for GM!”
Yikes! As my first act as Cubs GM, I hereby hire Tom Tango to take my place.
Off topic, but why is there still a DH rule in baseball? 12 million a year for Adam Dunn are you kidding me??!!
The avg DH salary is about 9 or 10 million a year. Hafner 13 mil, Abreu 9mil , Ortiz 12.5 mil, Posada 13.1, Dunn 12 mil, VMart(catches sometimes) 12mil, Michael Young 16 mil?! A player only spends about 1/9 of the game at the plate compared to time spent on defense. How would they ever earn that paycheck if they don’t play the field and can barely run the bases??
Why not spend that money elsewhere?? The rule doesn’t make the game more popular. In the past ten years, of the top ten best selling jerseys, there are 5 AL and 5 NL. It doesn’t make the AL more popular, it only broadens the gap in the market further by creating one more high-priced hole to fill.
There are pitchers who can hit(like Daniel Hudson: .359 avg) and those who can’t. Then there are those who can bunt, which won’t show up in their batting average. If not, they’re a quick out! Why complicate things by spending several million dollars on a player who makes very little difference on average in the outcome of the game?? Upgrade the bullpen! Starting pitching!! No wonder the AL Central and West are so weak, they can’t afford to keep up! Billy Butler is the second highest paid Royal for a position they shouldn’t even have to fill. They could have traded him before bringing up Hosmer instead of giving him an extension.
Championships and franchise players in a good market make the ballclub popular, not another insignificant and hugely overpayed “full-time player”.
I actually like the DH rule and wish the NL would adopt it. Also, it’s worth noting Daniel Hudson has a .500 BABIP. I anticipate he’ll be no better than Zambrano (occasional pop, lots of poop).
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?comments_popup=56162
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=310721121
Just how many different places do you plan on asking this?
The only people stoked about Jackson’s potential are Cubs fans. Keith Law said “I had people calling me and telling me to take him put of the top 100.”. He is not a future MVP caliber player. Szczur is interesting but we’ll have to wait and see. And there are like no pitchers coming up soon.
The Cubs are a bad team right now and will be for several more seasons. You can try to start anew now or keep trying Hendry’s whack-a-mole strategy for another 3-4 years.
can you link to that quote?
every other prospect guru has Jackson in the top 100. +speed, good power, ability to walk, good D, from a CFer… he may not be a perennial AS player but that’s a 3-4 win player during his prime with a couple 4+ WAR peak years.
I don’t remember anyone saying he had MVP potential. He’s gonna strike out way too much. But he also has skills. And Keith Law is a small, small man.
Fortunes change. They change all the time. Sure, I have to keep telling my self that more often than I’d like, but that doesn’t make it false.
Right?
The Keith Law quote was from the Baseball Prospectus Podcast ‘Up and In’, episode 40. I’m paraphrasing, but the point was that he had OTHER scouts calling him to say that they weren’t impressed with Jackson’s upside and Kevin Goldstein basically agreed. Law was back on after Jackson cooled off from his hot start, and his comment was something like “Jackson has really cooled off,” so he acknowledged the hot start but didn’t have anything new to add.
The problem with the Cubs system is I don’t see the sort of 7-8 (Fangraphs) WAR talent working it’s way up the chain that is the key to sustained winning. The engine to the Yankees’ championships in the late 90′s, the Braves 14 pennants, and the Phillies success lately have been 1 or 2 annual MVP level hitters with a group of 3-6 WAR hitters supporting them. Most of that talent is homegrown.
Heading the rotation is a true ace with a good supporting cast.
The Phillies could deal like crazy for pitchers because they had an amazing group of hitters to build around. In spite of everything they’ve done, they still had the #10 farm system entering the season. If you try to build this type of team through free agency, you get the 2007-2009 Cubs who had a small window and failed and are now screwed. If you build this at home, you have a solid foundation and don’t have to send away your 3 best prospects just to get a good but not great pitcher.
They Cubs’ way of doing things right now is like playing whack-a-mole and will not build a dynasties. Look at the Yankees, they never had to throw it all away and rebuild
@subtle
The Yankees continued to spend… The Cubs under new ownership stopped. That’s the difference between the Yankees not facing rebuilding and the Cubs looking to blow it up…. If the Cubs kept adding payroll they could have stayed contenders as well…. instead, they are letting their contracts expire and spending on player development instead.
This is the first year.. ever…. that the cubs have spent major money on the draft and they continue to be players in the international market.
They are doing things better, it just takes time to see the results.
The difference in the Yankees’ spending is that they have spent it in far wiser ways than the Cubs. Maybe A-Rod’s contract doesn’t match his on the field value, but you can understand overpaying for one of the best hitters ever to play the game.
The point is that the Yankees and the Phillies have just been better run organizations with a more logical and long-term approach to developing talent and then acquiring the pieces to support that talent.
Notice how I don’t even bring up the Red Sox or Rays here ;)
“Yankees’ spending is that they have spent it in far wiser ways…”
Wright, Giambi, Sheffield, Pavano, Farnsworth, Vasquez, Weaver, Farnswoth, etc. all say hello. No, they don’t spend money wiser, they just spend twice as much to cover up the mistakes.
Steve-O nailed it. Same with the Red Sox. You can run off a list just as long as the Cubs in bad contracts, if not more.
Once again, the difference is continuing to spend $$$ to fix their problems.
Jason Giambi’s .925 OPS with the Yankees was a bad signing? Huh? Sheffield hit well too…
I’ll give you that the pitchers were all terrible.
@ANON
At $120mm yes, I would call it a bust. Again for close $40mm over three years yes, again I would call that a bad deal.
Oh I put the Farns in twice it should have been Igawa.
The Cubs are NEVER, let me repeat, NEVER going to blow up their entire team and trade away pieces for salary relief. Barney and Marshall are not going to bring back anything good in trades as they have no value.
The Cubs can have 60M off the books this off-season… use that to fix their issues SP & a middle of the order power hitter.. say oh CJ Wilson and Prince Fielder… the Cubs are right back to being contenders in a mediocre division next year.
Why trade away useful players if the Cubs plan to fix their holes this offseason with their freed up cash? Do you think Fielder, Wilson, Pujols… or whoever wants to come to the Cubs to play with a bunch of scrubs?
How does Marshall not have any value? He is one of the best relievers in baseball and has a reasonable contract, he is very valuable. I agree Barney has negligible value, other than being cheap.
The Cubs aren’t going to get a great package in return for a relief pitcher…. he’s good, but he’s still just a BP arm.
That’s ludicrous. Marshall is one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball, and he’ll be a bargain in 2012 before becoming a free agent. The Cubs could almost certainly good a good prospect for him.
What kind of good prospect are you going to get for him? I mean even Bill Smith saves his good prospects for “proven closers”…
I agree that trading Marshall will not help the team. He wouldn’t bring back comparable value, and since he’s not overpriced, I don’t see why would you trade an effective player to make your team worse down the road, if there’s no “signability” issues. Marshall isn’t the problem. The corpse of Soriano is (and the fact that the Cubs rotation has been abysmal, except Garza, who’s been ok).
He’s at the peak of his value NOW, and the peak of the Cubs competitive chances is LATER. The Cubs will have 1 year + to come up with another Sean Marshall, and they’ll have the trade value for him instead of wasting 1+ year.
The Cubs never should have to blow up their team and start from scratch. As long as you have a 130M payroll and are in a mediocre division, you don’t start from scratch. The ’05 Rays? GMAFB
The Cubs have a shrinking payroll which has significant portions tied up in mediocre-at-best players. They don’t have anywhere near a $130m effective payroll.
What significant portions are those next year? You have the Soriano contract, and the Z contract in ’12, and that’s it. (And Z’s contract isn’t that bad)
That’s $36m right there, and they’re getting nowhere near $36m worth of player for that… what more do you need? Since we’ve had no confirmation otherwise, there’s no reason to think the trend of their shrinking payroll won’t continue next year. They’ll have to give raises to players such as Byrd, Soto, Garza, Marshall, Marmol and Dempster. Those players are worth it to varying degrees, but they’ll be a lot more expensive without guaranteeing any improvement. This all adds up to not having anywhere near a $130m effective payroll for this mythical free agent splurge people are expecting from the Cubs. The Cubs will pay for Jim Hendry’s sins for at least one more season.
Can I just say the little Mario graphic was a nice touch? made me laugh.
Hey! I’m glad you liked it!
Jackson hit .270 last year in AA and followed that up with a .255 ave. in AA this year. He strikes out over 30% of the time. Now there’s a real star for you.
LOL!!!!
Homey don’t play that… that being salient details.
Potentially amazing development on the horizon: http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/6791533/chicago-cubs-willing-absorb-much-alfonso-soriano-contract
To Homey: Surely you aren’t just talking about batting average when the guy draws a good number of walks, steals bases, hits for power, and plays good defense in center field.
This piece does not point out anything out about the Trib/Zell effect on signings such as Soriano that are now ruining the Cubs. Then, says Hendry is bad by comparing to arguably the BEST GM in baseball. And one other thing, the piece assumes that Hendry has people knocking on the door for $15 Sean Marshall and Darwin Barney holding up their $300 offers. This looks like nothing more than trying to throw meat to the hungry wolves.
It could be all downhill for Beane in Oakland at this point. They really have a lot of rebuilding to do. He is really going to have to rededicate the organization to build from the ground up again.
the fans are not blaming injuries for this bad team as you say. they blame bad management from ricky to rudy. people like you who say the Cubs will not compete in 2012,13,14, etc are not on my team. a team can be turned around in one year, that’s been proven for many years. with the right GM, manager, and balls they can be good in 2012. the problem is ricky, it’s up to him.
Hendry should be fired if for no other reason then his complete and utter lack of understanding of the importance of a Walk.
Run threw the numbers on the players (especially in the draft) he consistently targets – the pitchers will almost always have next to no control, while the hitters generally cant take a walk to save their lives. It’s almost as if he is single handily trying to disprove the “base-runners increase runs” idea; which sadly, is like the most basic commonsense you can find.
He is just a GM who is stuck in 1920 as far as his philosophies. Take someone like Grabow for instance – 5.3 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9 but with an ERA of only 3.42! Sounds like someone you really desire in a trade, right? And of course, after you trade for him and he provides a 4.3 BB/9, 5.8 K/9 and 0.4 HR/9 with an even lower 3.24 ERA(!) down the stretch; of course you should want to sign him to a multi-million multi-year contract, right? Well of course you don’t, its beyond stupid – but Hendry does…
Since Hendry has been in complete charge himself, he has done nothing but chase players off career years in superficial stat categories despite their gigantic flashing statistical warning signs which he ignores completely as he hands out his multi-year and mega-million contracts which of course must have that no-trade clause.
And let’s not even get into the literally endless supply of “if we only had…” excuses he pulls out after each and every season – from their early days like the “if we only had a true lead-off hitter” (and subsequent disastrous Pierre trade) to the “if we only had a LH Bat/Run Producer” lines which resulted in 4 mega-million, multi-year contracts to 4 corner outfielders in 4 straight seasons!
He’s not only a poor GM, he’s flat out pitiful. One can only imagine he would have been gone years ago if the ownership was in an even semi-stable situation.
Of all the bad Hendry contracts (incl. Soriano, Zambrano, Dempster, and Fukudome) I would argue that the Grabow contract was, by far, the worst. The other contracts were significant overpays for players who had some value. The Grabow contract was a significant overpay for a player who had absolutely no value.
There’s nothing wrong with the any of the Dempster contracts that Hendry did.
Giving Dempster a $14m player option for next season was bad. The Cubs are a large market team that constantly bends over (and I don’t mean backwards) for players they’re paying 7 figures to. Hopefully, the next President/GM stops that practice and starts acting like they have leverage.
The Real Neal,
I don’t get it. Hendry gave then 32 year-old Dempster a 4 year, 52 million contract prior to 2009 – the 18th highest annual average salary ever given to a pitcher. And oh yeah, it went to a guy who had been a starter in all of 1 of his previous 5 seasons! A re-converted reliever getting one of the biggest salaries you can find after one season starting?
But the real kicker? It was fed to us as a “hometown discount”, because, you know, that’s just how Hendry rolls…
Since then, he’s been just a tad better then league average with a 4.03 ERA, 1.337 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9 over 537.2 IP
Now of course the Dempter contract is no where near as bad as the ones given to Zambrano and Soriano (he has, afterall, sadly been about as, to arguably more, productive for less money) ; but that doesn’t mean it was a good move either.
Jamie,
I disagree slightly as the Zambrano and Soriano contracts are two of the worst in the entire game with both of them being deals which will seemingly never end. At least the Grabow contract was short – even if it was a ridiculous waste of money
Plus, as much as the Grabow contract was basically throwing money away, it still isn’t as bad as the Aaron Miles deal.
Aaron’s claim to fame was being average off the bench for the Crads the year prior after 4 years of “what the F* are teams paying him for” production. Dude can’t hit, can’t run and can’t field but Hendry gives him a 2 year, 5 MM contract? 2 years and 5 million Jim? Seriously?
And still above all is the Bradley debacle though. There couldn’t have been another man on the planet that truly believed Milton was going to behave enough to finish his 3* year pact – the longest he had ever gone with one team before being run off was 2 seasons. And the brilliance of that deal comes in the fact that Bradley couldn’t even make it to the start of the regular season in his first year without causing problems!
*Yeah, I know, it was 2 years – but the vesting option was so easy to obtain (especially with them using him in all the pinch-hit opportunities while being benched) that it was essentially a guaranteed 3 year deal even if he experienced injuries and meltdowns. We got so lucky to get out of that…
Joey,
By Fangraph’s calculations (and I take these with more than one grain of salt myself), Dempster has been approximately worth what he was paid over the last three years.
At the time of his free agency, Lowe was the other guy who was considered to be about the same value, and he hasn’t been as good. Your argument seems more about not understanding the Cubs bad defense, small ballpark and “baseball players make too much money” more than it is about Dempster’s contract.
lets not forget that Starlin Castro is basically the second coming of Ronny Cedeno
Castro (1.7 WAR) Cedeno (1.2 WAR)
Not sure if serious…
Ooops, thumbsed up instead of replying initially.
I think it’s pretty obvious to everyone who knows a lick about the game that Castro is going to get better. He probably can’t reach max potential in Chicago, so the cycle of trading players when they are primed to bloom in a decent organization will probably continue. We’ll probably see him put entire seasons of All Star level play with another team.
Go to BBref and sort for single seasons, Expansion era, Younger than 23, Played at least 50% of games at SS, (requiring batting_avg>=.290) and just look at this kids company. Even if he only ends up as quality a player as Edgar Renteria or Garry Templeton he’s still a success.
While I am inclined to agree on the Hendry front of this argument and the pitching argument, I will respectfully decline on the trade block argument. Our players have the talent and capability to go into October. I look towards our ledaership and chemistry in the organiztion as a whole. It is easy to point out player’s flaws, but what is being done to correct them? Who is lighting the fire under any of the big contract guys who aren’t putting the effort to become superstars? The players on the field, which one of you will stand up and take leadership of this crew? Who is going to deck someone in the clubhouse for dropping an easy fly ball? This club has a leadership issue, not a player issue. That leadership starts at the top.
You’re completely outside the realm of reality if you think the Cubs, even if each player were to reach their potential, are a playoff team. By playoff team I mean one that could win more than one lucky game vs the likes of Atl, Phi or SF. And they just lost three straight to Mil.
Good article, but not enough emphasis on wins to payroll ratio. In “the Hendry years,” Cubs rank around 29th of 30,
Hendry was bad, and he’s gotten worse.
I think that’s cuz he’s old school to the extreme, and the more progressive thinkers in the other organizations have left him increasingly in the dust.
Like our problem in drawing walks. As you folks surely know, we’re last in MLB. But our hackiness problem runs thru the whole org. We’re last in walks in AAA, AA, AZL, second to last in Peoria, 8th of 12 at Daytona. Lone exception is short season Boise, 2nd of 8. The more progressive org’s instill working counts, value of walks and OBP, etc.
Also, most teams understand that team defense and team speed are more important with run-scoring continuing to trend way down. Our defense and speed are horrible.
The farm system has not one star in the pipeline. It’s ranked between 19th an 23rd. It will slip to around 25 by season’s end. Double-barreled ineptitude. Awful present, awful future. Thank you very much, Hendry.
What in the heck does a guy have to do to lose his job?!!!!?
When you sign high upside/risk high school players and young international guys like Tim Wilken likes to do, you are going to get a lot of strikeouts. As the players develop the K’s go down and walks go up. It’s only a problem if the player continues to strike out excessively as he advances through the minors. Walks are great but they shouldn’t be something you teach a hitter to try and do. The emphasis should be on plate discipline and approach- don’t swing at bad pitches out of the zone or swing early in the count at something other than what you are looking for and in the place you are looking for it. To purely try and walk removes a player’s aggressiveness and turns him into a singles hitting pussy who strikes out a lot looking.
Where do Tyler Colvin and Brett Jackson fall in your Wilken categories?
Jeff Samardzija’s ridiculous contract is reason enough to fire Hendry.
cubz r ghey
Another article about what’s wrong with the Cubs by someone who obviously doesn’t watch the Cubs.
Pitching has been the biggest problem this season, period. Fielding and base running have been problems, but hitting hasn’t been horrible, clutch hitting has been horrible, but by far the biggest problem is consistently giving up 2-3 runs in the first couple innings of a game (and pitching poorly overall). That isn’t all from errors, it’s from crappy pitching.
Yes, Hendry should be fired, but this is a very poorly sided article.
The guy is a Cubs fan. He watches the Cubs.
Fielding and pitching combined is what allows runs. The Cubs fielding, depending on what stat you like, is the worst or second worst in the majors.
Just think what the Cubs could do to the Midwest League!
The franchise is a joke. Their futility is a source of high comedy, one act after another.
#afrakingmen
The guy traded a bag of poo for Aramis Ramirez, then shrewdly signed Derrek Lee, Greg Maddux, LaTroy Hawkins, and Todd Hollandsworth to give the team one of the best on-paper rosters heading into 2004.
Since then, he’s basically been unsuccessfully trying not to choke on his own tongue. Now he’s on his fourth manager, and there are enough apologists in high places in Chicago that I don’t discount the possibility that he’ll pin all his shit on Zell/TribCo and survive to hire his fifth.
Dark days on the old ship.
I used fly from Oregon out to Chicago every year to watch the cubs, almost every year since 1995. My father used to skip school to watch day games at Wrigley. Our family purchased commemorative bricks outside of Wrigley.
But at the beginning of last season I had enough. I had been going to Giants games my whole life too. They were my far from first, but definitely second favorite team. That is until I watched Lincecum face Jimenez on Sept. 1st.
The rest of the season was a moral debate within myself. How could I leave my Cubbies? My father was almost ashamed. Partially because his son would desert the lovable losers, but also because he realized his losers weren’t so lovable anymore and that was it time for his team put an actual effort toward winning. The saber guys might not have had all the answers, but they showed just how bad the Cubs really were and are.
Of course the WS win made the transition from Cubbie at the heart to a Giant, but mostly it made me feel secure in my decision. Maybe it was meant to be, I got to watch Lincecum and Sandoval develop with the Volcanos in my home town of Salem, OR. And I got to follow them (Well only Lincecum, thanks to fatty being to fat) as they won it all.
Now I read Cubs news with the same shuddering heart as I do when reading about massacre or disease in a third world country.
Isn’t there someone in Chicago that actually wants to win? That can and will do something about it? Why isn’t it happening?… ugh here we go again, I’ve been thinking that for years
Good piece.
I would like to comment on Darwin Barney – yes, he is a replacement level player in terms of WAR and overachieved before his DL stint earlier in the season. However, he has very high clubhouse value (CV). By all accounts, Barney is a very nice guy and a great teammate. He won 2 NCAA titles playing SS for Oregon State (I couldn’t find if he was the starter anywhere online, but I’d assume for at least one of these teams). He is a good defensive player, knows what it takes to win, and is a team-first guy. Anyone who watches him play can tell he is giving 100% every play, both at the plate and in the field.
Why can’t he be a 2B version of ’06-’09 Ryan Theriot? Theriot may have had more speed, but Barney might have a better glove and could be a better base-runner. The Riot registered 3.6 WAR in 08 and 2.5 in 09…not too bad for a role-player.
Barney has already accrued 1.4 WAR and has a shot at ending up around 2 for the season…pretty good for a player who wasn’t even in the mix for the job going into spring training (Baker/DeWitt platoon). He most likely isn’t the second coming of Ryne Sandberg, but Barney can easily be a slightly above average 2B for the next few years by providing consistent contact (38 K over 388 PA), solid defense, and tons of hustle.
He is never going to be a star, but Darwin Barney is a classic role player in-waiting for a title contender someday, the Cubs should hold onto him and look to plug other major leaks (OF/pitching) instead.
WOOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Hendry era is over!