The Complexity Of Roy Oswalt As A Philly

According to a report out of Houston, the Astros and Phillies have agreed on a deal that will send Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia, pending his approval. Details of the deal haven’t been released yet, and we don’t know if Oswalt will accept it anyway, but with a trade potentially looming, I figured I’d put some somewhat scattered thoughts to the online version of paper.

Writing about any move the Phillies make is hard. On the one hand, it is impossible to escape the overarching truth that anything they do now will be less effective than simply keeping Cliff Lee would have been last winter. That trade was inexplicable from the beginning, and has not looked any better for the Phillies since it was made. Now, four months into the 2010 season, making a move for Oswalt to upgrade the rotation is a tacit admission that they would have been better off keeping Lee.

And yet, we preach the value of sunk costs and not letting bad decisions of the past force you into more bad decisions in the future, so by all rights, we have to talk about anything the Phillies do under the umbrella of the fact that the Lee trade can’t be undone. It’s in the past, and getting the game’s premier lefty back isn’t an option. The choice faced by Ruben Amaro here is Oswalt or not Oswalt, not Oswalt or Lee. We should examine any trade the Phillies make in isolation from the deals that they made last winter.

And yet, we can’t simply look at an Oswalt acquisition on its own, because most accounts suggest that the team will have to move Jayson Werth in order to be able to afford Oswalt’s salary. It’s not a straight forward transaction, where the Phillies are giving up some future value to make the current team better. Depending on what they end up doing with Werth, they might actually make their 2010 team worse and their 2011 team better – not exactly the kind of deal you normally see from a team that is in the thick of a pennant race.

Some will try to paint this as a simple Roy Oswalt/Domonic Brown versus J.A. Happ/Jayson Werth battle of pairs, but even that breaks down, because the Phillies don’t have to trade Werth to get Brown into the line-up. With Shane Victorino on the DL, Brown is already in the big leagues, and there’s no reason that they couldn’t play him over Raul Ibanez when Victorino returns.

Trying to sort out this jumbled mess will not be easy. Oswalt would make the Phillies better. Losing Werth would make them worse. If they can make a good deal for Werth, who will leave this winter, perhaps it’s a deal worth making. Of course, Werth wouldn’t have to be leaving this winter if their moves of the past had left them with more flexibility in the present. But, again, what’s done is done, however it’s still hard to overcome the context of why this deal needs to be made in the first place, and what kind of deal it may lead to tomorrow.

There will be no easy way to analyze a Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia trade. If this deal happens, it will not lend itself to sound byte analysis, and no one will be able to sum up what is going on in 50 words. It’s complicated, perhaps more so than any recent trade. In the end, it may end up as just a part of one of the most interesting, confusing, and talked about series of acquisitions and departures in baseball history.




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Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.


73 Responses to “The Complexity Of Roy Oswalt As A Philly”

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  1. jking12 says:

    Dave, well written. It will be interesting to see what happens. What sort of contract will Werth come to expect this off-season? If this trade happens, and Werth is in the deal, does Houston really expect to re-sign him once the season is over?

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    • NEPP says:

      Werth wouldn’t be in any deal TO Houston. They have no need for a rental OF.

      Besides which, most reports now have the Phillies keeping Werth for the final 2 months (which is why money from Houston for 2010 is so important) and letting him walk to get the 2 picks. With Vic down, they can’t lose Werth anyway, even with the promotion of Dom Brown.

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    • bflaff says:

      Well written? It was all ‘maybe, perhaps, maybe, in case’ and ‘we’ll have to wait and see’. It’s like doing analysis of a 2013 Cliff Lee to the Red Sox deal today, instead of after it happens. “Well, if Pap is still the closer, maybe Boston will give up Bard…”.

      Patience, Dave. Glad you’re excited though. It’s a fun time of the year.

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  2. Schwam says:

    If that is the case why not start with Brad Lidge and Raul Ibanez’s contracts signed in the 2008 offseason which now accumulates for $23 million of the Phills payroll. I believe if your going to start anywhere, start there. You could also include Moyer’s $6.5 million contract and combine that to make $29.5. So $29.5 million in actual money spent vs. the $1.6 million produced by all three players combined in WAR $ value.

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    • also...via cots says:

      2010 payroll obligations for former players:
      $ 750,000 (Juan Castro)
      $ 500,000 (Adam Eaton)
      $ 500,000 (Pedro Feliz)
      $1,250,000 (Geoff Jenkins)

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    • Kevin Wilson says:

      I hate Amaro, but in fairness, the Lidge deal was signed during the 2008 season, and technically under Gillick’s reign (even though Amaro was obviously very involved).

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      • Bill says:

        The Lidge deal made some sense when it was made. In general, relievers are fungible, but a team that is set up to win now should have a proven closer and, at the time of the deal, Lidge looked to be one of the best.

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  3. OremLK says:

    All of the reports I’ve been hearing have suggested that the Phillies no longer plan to trade Werth, but instead to keep him for the stretch run and get the picks for letting him walk in the off-season.

    So next season is another story. But maybe they were planning to let Werth walk anyway. But this year, it seems likely–at least for the moment–that this will be a net win for the big league roster in which Werth remains a Philly and Oswalt replaces the much-inferior J.A. Happ.

    However, Houston was rumored to be “asking for the moon”, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Amaro gave up more than he possibly should have to get Oswalt.

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  4. Schwam says:

    Error: Lidge’s contract was signed in the midst of the 2008 season.

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  5. Steve Marino says:

    Although I agree that this is basically an admission that the Cliff Lee trade was one big mistake, I’m intrigued to see what the final deal will be. Oswalt is a very good pitcher but he’s on a very good salary so there is probably as much upside as downside on the salary for the Phillies. Bearing that in mind, it will be very interesting to see what players Philadelphia are going to give up.

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  6. Has Reuben Amaro made a good move since named GM. The only thing that comes to mind is trading for Halladay, but trading for Oswalt is just showing that the guy has no plan at all.

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    • don says:

      No plan is right. It’s not that every move he’s made has been bad, though two have been really horrible. There’s just no foresight to what he does. Everything is a reaction.

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    • hk says:

      He traded for Cliff Lee, which was a great move (for a few months until he undid it by trading him away).

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    • bflaff says:

      He should be one of those dignified GMs, who hangs up when the ‘Stros offer Oswalt, because Oswalt wasn’t part of the original plan.

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  7. brent in Korea says:

    What’s the over/under on Amaro’s time left as GM?

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    • BX says:

      Whenever the Phillies have an inevitable last place finish.

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      • DavidCEisen says:

        I’ll bet you a beer that the Phillies don’t finish last in the next 5 years.

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      • Bronnt says:

        DavidCEisen, I wouldn’t be so sure when we’re talking about 2014 and 2015. They’re an aging team that’s sending off a lot of good prospects and has a ton of future money tied up in Ryan Howard’s decline years. Florida and Washington both have solid systems and young talent, so in the next 5 years, I could see both of those teams surpassing the Phillies.

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  8. Schwam says:

    Also, any chance the site could correct Domonic Brown’s name? It’s not spelled Dominic.

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    • Bill says:

      Maybe he should change his name. He’s the one that’s spelling it wrong.

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      • Randy says:

        I can correct the spelling of you name, it should be DICK

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      • Ben says:

        I’m not trying to play the PC police, but at best that’s ignorant and at worst it’s racist.

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      • oh dear says:

        How is it racist? grow up.

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      • Ben says:

        I said at worst it was racist. And in that worst case scenario, the commenter was equating Brown being African-American with his family being uneducated and thus misspelling the more common name ‘Domonic.’ That would be incredibly racist, although not an uncommon trend (insulting people of different backgrounds for unusual names). But I don’t know what his intentions were, which is why I referred to that as worst case.

        Regardless, I do know that insulting someone’s name and saying it’s spelled wrong, especially without knowing the context or motivation of choosing that name, is incredibly ignorant and shows a complete lack of respect.

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      • bflaff says:

        +1 for Ben. Even if Bill was trying to pass off ironic ignorance as wit, saying that Brown spells his name wrong is still obnoxious and unfunny. And that’s the *best* case scenario.

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      • CircleChange11 says:

        The same c0omment to be said of a guy who spells his name “Jayson”.

        What’s that Werth guy’s first name again?

        Any mention of racism is far premature and presumptuous, even in the small event that the suggestion is accurate.

        Creative black names and spelling of those names (especially the usage of an apostrophe) has long been the source of humor for comedians and people of all colors. It’s a commentary on the uniqueness and sometimes silliness (Luscious Pusey, LB for Northwestern) that’s the joke, not necessarily the race of the person.

        I’m surprised their are more “Jee-zus” jokes for guys named Jesus.

        It’s funny.

        I work in the field of education, the list of times a parent has had to look at a tattoo to get the correct spelling of their child’s name for an emergency card is far too numerous. Sadly … regardless of race.

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    • Schwam says:

      I meant to say “it is spelled Dominic” at the end there. Thank you for correcting that though.

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  9. Mike says:

    When two titans like Ruben Amaro and Drayon Mclane come together to make a deal, ANYTHING can happen.

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  10. NEPP says:

    It would be tough to justify benching Ibanez for a rookie when Vic gets back (no matter how great Dom’s ceiling is) when Raul has been smoking the ball for the past month now (.950 OPS and a .355 AVG). Raul has been a big part of their sudden emergence from a teamwide slump.

    None of the rumors have Werth going anywhere and several say specifically that they intend to keep him. Most rumors are centered on a package of JA Happ and Jonathan Singleton. Singleton is a tough loss to their farm system as he would be their best hitter now that Dom Brown has been promoted. If it is indeed Singleton, you have to give Ed Wade credit for targeting a very high ceiling hitter as a return along with a cost controlled league average starter in Happ (who projects as a 4th starter by most accounts…assuming he can ever stay healthy that is).

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    • pounded clown says:

      Considering he played all of 2007 with elbow tendonitsis (same thing that landed him on the DL this year) and has had a reoccurring oblique strain both time from batting I think if he can remain healthy can’t be overstated. Playing with tendonitsis like for that amount of time is just bad, really bad….that’s how you get tendinosis which is a chronic pain condition caused by tendon deterioration.

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  11. scot says:

    The statements that Amaro doesn’t have a plan are silly. In the Lee trade there was a plan to restock the farm system. He got Halladay since he thought he was more likely to have him beyond 2010 than Lee. He planned to have Victorino relatively cheap for a few years. He planned to extend Blanton to #3 starter money when he pitches more like a 4 or 5 (but was the Phils #3 the past two years).

    All these moves are planned. They might be bad plans, but they definitely are made with foresight.

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    • NEPP says:

      At the time of the trade, it seemed that the farm system was depleted. Since then, they’ve had a bunch of toolsy high ceiling guys take big steps forward. Its tough to predict that happening.

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    • don says:

      Having a plan means your actions work together in concert towards some goal. His don’t. His actions get in each other’s way.

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      • Randy says:

        I agree he (amaro) has a plan, but it seems pretty haphazard. At this point, especially with all the injuries the Phils seemed to have (I’ll be honest I haven’t tracked how many games missed etc) but just that this team is still competing is awfully impressive. Amaro seems like the worst kind of GM, and the kind of GM that will have multiple jobs at multiple teams over his career, which is a bummer on hand for the fans of those teams, but will give us an opportunity to watch multiple car wrecks, which is a good thing.

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    • BX says:

      By selling Lee for pennies on the dollar? I mean, that restocks the farm system, but not Jesus Montero restocks the farm system more.

      Giving Ryan Howard a 5 year 125MM extension to be an albatross while those prospects get ready to come to the bigs? GENIUS!

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  12. Hobbit says:

    A bit of weak sauce in this article. Werth hasn’t been rumored to be part of this current version of the deal, not sure why there were so many words to that effect.

    Of course this is a tacit admission that the Lee deal sending him to the Ms was horrible, Amaro runs a franchise more like a fantasy baseball team than real life.

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    • NEPP says:

      Because it was apparently written based on rumors from over a week ago…with no reference to updated rumors or the consequences of the Victorino DL trip.

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      • Hobbit says:

        I agree, that is the basis for my ‘weak sauce’ comment. I got an idea, why don’t we wait to see if this trade actually happens no?

        Lets sit back and see if Brett Myers tells Roy Oswalt that working/pitching in Philly sucks and then see if Roy decides to stay with the Astros…

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      • DavidCEisen says:

        Please, Myers had it good in Philly. The only time he was booed was when he came back from suspension for beating his wife–and even after a week of that he was loved again.

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      • NEPP says:

        Yes, that terrible Phillies team that stood by him completely when he beat his wife on a public street and even let him start that weekend.

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    • DavidCEisen says:

      Yeah, I highly doubt Werth is included in this deal. If the return on Haren was so weak, not even Amaro would trade a top 10 outfielder for an overpaid, old pitcher. It sounds like Happ and and a midlevel prospect should get it done.

      I know we all like to make fun of Amaro, but lets not forget that Ed Wade is the GM of the Astros.

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  13. Furey says:

    Hindsight is 20/20. I think the true way to understand this better is that the Phillies decided to roll the dice on Happ & Moyer. Well, Happ got injured and Moyer got injured. Soooo…you have to trade for a starter. I don’t think it was an admission of anything.

    Would the team be better with Lee? Absolutely. But the Phils gambled, like they have done countless times. Sometimes they have been right (Victorino, Werth) and sometimes they have been wrong (Ibanez 3 years $10 million a year? Sigh.) on which players to sign.

    Phillies aren’t the Yankees. They don’t want a $206 million payroll, they have $141 million payroll, which compared to, say, 2008 when they were at $98,269,881 payroll. You can’t deride the Phils – in 2 years they have been paying for the talent.

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    • hk says:

      Furey, hindsight is 20/20, but many Phillies fans (and baseball fans in general) said with foresight that the Lee trade was stupid. A team with World Series expectations should not trade one of the best SP’s in the game and a cheap contract, for middling prospects. We knew then and we know now that the Phillies would have been much better off keeping Lee for 2010 and getting draft pick compensation when he signed elsewhere in the upcoming offseason. Now, with 2 months left in the seaon, they find themselves 3.5 out of 1st and 2.5 out of the Wild Card and are apparently about to trade better prospects (assuming Singleton is involved) to Houston for 2 months of Oswalt than they got from Seattle for what was assumed at the time to be 6 months of Lee.

      Comparing the Werth and Victorino gambles to the Lee gamble is like comparing apples to oranges. The downside in signing Werth and taking Victorino in the Rule 5 don’t come close to the downside of trading Cliff Lee and going with some combination of Happ, Moyer and/or Kendrick as your 4 and 5.

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    • Bill says:

      But, they didn’t gamble on Victorino or Werth. Both of them were low cost acquisitions and Gillick had back up plans in place if they flopped. They knew what they had in Victorino before they traded Abreu and they knew what they had in Werth before letting Rowand walk. These were in no way gambles. Resigning Moyer for 2 years before the 2009 season was tantamount to hitting on a 19. The Ibanez signing wasn’t as bad as that, but it was still a much bigger gamble than picking up Victorino or Werth.

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      • Bill says:

        I have to type faster.

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      • hk says:

        Or I slower…

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      • Dan says:

        “They knew what they had in Victorino before they traded Abreu and they knew what they had in Werth before letting Rowand walk”

        What? You couldn’t be more wrong about either the timeline or the status of those players.

        Werth was in a platoon with Geoff Jenkins for most of 2008 after Rowand left in the offseason. Victorino replaced Rowand as the full time CF that season–he was a “sure thing” at that point, but even then he was only moved to CF b/c they’d traded Michael Bourn for Lidge.

        And Victorino was only a platoon player in RF (with David Dellucci) after the Abreu trade in 2006. He posted a whopping 91 OPS+ that season in 461 PA. How is that a sure thing?

        Werth and Victorino were gambles at the time those deals were made. Relatively safe gambles, but gambles nonetheless.

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  14. Rut says:

    Though I agree that they should have kept Lee, it’s not fair to say that anything they do now will be less effective than keeping Lee. Lee is better than Oswalt, but it’s a choice between getting 1 season of Lee at a below market rate as opposed to roughly 1.5-2.5 seasons worth of Oswalt at about his market price. If you look at this potential deal and the Lee deal only in terms of this season, then sure the phillies did a poor job. But if you remember they have Oswalt for another season, maybe 2 depending on the option situation, then it’s not obvious having oswalt for that time period is worse than Lee for this season alone.

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    • Travis L says:

      I don’t think that having Oswalt for the next couple of years will be a good thing. IF he stays healthy, and IF he stays this effective, he will earn his salary. I find both those props highly unlikely. Seems to me that he is going to break down next year.

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  15. Andrew says:

    Isn’t it a little unfair to criticize Amaro for a move he has not made (trading Werth) and is not even currently rumored to be considering (despite the statement in this article, no one I have read today has the Phillies trading Werth anymore)? Right now the rumor is that he’s accurately valuing Happ (despite his low ERA, the sort of thinking that is usually praised in these parts) and trading him and a couple of other not great prospects (Worley and Rizotti) for Oswalt. If Jack Z did that exact move, you guys would build a statue of him (and yes, to be fair, he DID do a very similar deal at the expense of Amaro, but my point that criticizing Amaro based on an outdated rumor is a poor argument reflecting poor logic).

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  16. Ben says:

    Unless Dave knows something we don’t, then this is a surprisingly off-base article. The intro about everything being compared to Cliff Lee is a worthwhile discussion, but all indications and reports over the last 48 hours are that the Phillies have pulled Werth off the market and have no plans to trade him. Both the national news (ESPN/Stark) and the local news (Philly Inquirer) have reported that development. Again, unless there’s something going on that we don’t know about, then this really seems surprisingly out of touch for a fangraphs article.

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  17. jkrell1212 says:

    if the trade goes through, can we finally stop the knee jerk reaction to trash ed wade on this site? he’s offered some, well, odd contracts–see: lyon, brandon–but by and large he’s slowly but surely rebuilding a farm system that had almost no high ceiling players or depth when he took over. also, i don’t know if the owner found religion or whether wade had something to do with it, but the willingness to allow an aging star to be traded…this is good news for the stros going forward.

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    • bflaff says:

      Tossing spitballs at the uncool GMs and players is how the kids get their plus ones on this site, so do you really think we’ll see the end of it? I don’t.

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  18. beanzalo says:

    I think everyone needs to stop complaining. The Lee thing was an obvious mistake but I think we started 2010 with the most talented team the Phillies have ever rolled out at the opening of the season (with the possible exception of the bullpen). Who knew the bats would go silent and there would be so many injuries. I think Amaro has done a good job (B to B+) overall.

    My question is this right now. Is it a good idea to get Oswalt now and loose Happ? Getting Oswald in the #2 or #3 spot would still leave you short one pitcher if Happ goes in the deal. You can’t go into the post season with Kendrick! If you could keep Happ, then great. There is your five starters. I’m not sure of Happ’s long term upside, but he did look good last year. He is still young. I might just gamble on Happ as the number 3 starter rather than take on Oswalt who is over 30 and has back issues. This still leaves the Phils one pitcher short.

    Then there is the issue of a closer. I would say that signing Lidge during the ’08 season for as much as they did, given his history (over what was happening that year alone) might have not have been the right idea. What do you do now? His last two saves were by the skin of his teeth.

    It’s easy to be an armchair GM, but right now, there are several issues that present a real challenge for Rubin and Charlie. The bats have come alive and the starting pitching has been good, not great but good. Let’s just sit back and enjoy the journey. It will certainly be interesting. It’s a whole lot better than the late 90’s and early ’00’s. We’re spoiled now!

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    • hk says:

      If they get Oswalt and make the postseason, they wouldn’t need Kendrick in the postseason. Teams only use 4 SP’s at most and Blanton would be the 4th ahead of Kendrick regardless of how he’s pitched this year.

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  19. MattyG says:

    It’s hard for Dave to analyze because it’s a good move (prospects pending) and he can’t, simply CANNOT say anything positive about Ruben Amaro Junior.

    Dave – “The Phillies acquired (insert ace pitcher) for a bag of balls and a cheesesteak to be named later. While on paper, the new ace should upgrade their already stellar staff, I’d be remiss to point out that they only have half a dozen bags of balls left in their pitching machine, and if that steak is a whizz wit they are overpaying in accoutrements.”

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  20. Rondo says:

    How does the complexity of this trade change if the Phils send a two day old Puu Puu Platter for Oswalt?

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  21. chris says:

    what a poorly written article

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    • -dls- says:

      What a useful comment. If you’re going to complain about the writing at least state why. ‘Poorly Written’ is so ambiguous.

      Your comment sucks, by the way.

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  22. Megary says:

    Happ, Worley & Gose for Oswalt & 11 Million.
    Or so the latest word is.

    If Oswalt stays healthy, then the pitching staff just got better for the next year and a half (and maybe more, if his option was picked up…I’m thinking it was considering the 11 large) while the farm system takes a little bump. Not a bad trade for the Phillies given the expiration date on their bottle.

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    • don says:

      If that’s the trade it’s about as balanced as the Haren trade was.

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    • Huxt says:

      Really you’d look at the two sides to this deal an exclaim “not a bad trade” on the Phils part? Would you honestly be content, if you were an Astros fan, with giving up Oswalt + 11 freaking million dollars for JA HAPP! + 2 single A guys. What less should the Phils have given up for this to be a good trade, cause i can’t even fathom getting less than this.

      I think it is the 11mm that is killing me, Please take one of our best players, and we’ll help pay the salary too.

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      • Megary says:

        Well I guess I like JA Happ more than I should, but I agree that in this battle of titans, Wade looks to have come up short. That the Phillies did not guarantee 2012 *and* got 11 million in the deal is the kicker, as you note.

        If Oswalt’s back gives way on the plane ride to Philly, I reserve the right to change my mind.

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      • CircleChange11 says:

        I wouldn’t want to be a LH fastball-dominant, non-groundball pitcher throwing half of games in HOU’s stadium.

        In 09, Happ did throw 16 QS of 23 GS (70%). That’s pretty good.

        But, he also doesn’t have an extensive track record, and is coming off an injury. At almost 28, he’s no longer a “prospect” type.

        But, he has 2 things that teams love [1] 6’6, [2] Lefty.

        Giving away Oswalt + 11M is a tough deal.

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      • Huxt says:

        And if JA Happ gets shut down in a week for a forearm issue then I reserve the right to punch myself in the nutz repeatedly. Damn you Ed Wade.

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  23. NEPP says:

    Happ, Gose & Villar for Oswalt and $11 M…

    Kinda hard to bash Ruben Amaro Jr. for that.

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