The Disappearance of Hitters Who Walk More Than They Strike Out
While watching the Mets pound on the Cubs yesterday, I noticed that David Wright still has a walk rate (BB%) higher than his strikeout rate (K%). If Wright managed to continue this trend through the end of the season it would be the first time in his career he achieved such a feat.
Right now, there are a grand total of six qualified hitters who also have a higher walk than strikeout rate:
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Wright | 308 | 14.60% | 13.00% | 0.200 | 170 |
| David Ortiz | 308 | 12.70% | 12.30% | 0.311 | 162 |
| Joe Mauer | 276 | 13.80% | 12.30% | 0.114 | 138 |
| Ben Zobrist | 301 | 16.60% | 15.30% | 0.190 | 121 |
| Carlos Lee | 246 | 7.70% | 6.10% | 0.123 | 111 |
| Jose Reyes | 333 | 10.80% | 8.70% | 0.113 | 101 |
I wondered how rare a feat this is, even given the increase in the three true outcomes. Turns out, it’s exceedingly rare.
Using a similar methodology to my TTO article a few weeks back, I plotted the percent of qualified hitters in each season with BB% greater than their K% (white bars above). I then included the strikeout, walk, and home run rates for each season as well to see if they helped explain the trends we see.
First, we see the drastic decline of hitters that walk more than they strikeout. In 1929, 80% of all qualified hitters had higher walk rates. In 2011, only 6% managed the feat. The lowest percentage the league has ever seen was in 2010, when only Joe Mauer, Jeff Keppinger, Daric Barton, and Albert Pujols pulled it off (3% of all qualified hitters). That’s an incredible drop.
Second, as with the rise of TTO players, strikeout rates seem to be the driving force. Yes, home run rates have certainly increased. However, it pales in comparison to the 10%+ rise in strikeouts per plate appearance since 1920. With strikeouts becoming so prevalent and walk rates essentially fluctuating between 8-10% each year, it’s very hard for a player (particularly a good one who typically displays quite a bit of power) to end the season with more walks than strikeouts.
Given the prevalence of such hitters in previous eras, the leader board for this metric is a little skewed. However, if we look at those hitters with the most seasons of BB% > K% we do manage to find decent representation from a number of eras:
| Name | # of Seasons | % of Player’s Qualified Seasons | First Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Yastrzemski | 18 | 86% | 1961 |
| Mel Ott | 17 | 100% | 1928 |
| Joe Morgan | 17 | 100% | 1965 |
| Rickey Henderson | 17 | 89% | 1980 |
| Stan Musial | 16 | 100% | 1942 |
| Tris Speaker | 15 | 100% | 1913 |
| Luke Appling | 15 | 100% | 1932 |
| Ozzie Smith | 15 | 94% | 1978 |
| Pete Rose | 15 | 71% | 1963 |
| Babe Ruth | 14 | 100% | 1919 |
| Frankie Frisch | 14 | 100% | 1921 |
| Paul Waner | 14 | 100% | 1926 |
| Nellie Fox | 14 | 100% | 1950 |
| Wade Boggs | 14 | 100% | 1983 |
| Tony Gwynn | 14 | 100% | 1984 |
| Mark Grace | 14 | 100% | 1988 |
| Charlie Gehringer | 14 | 93% | 1926 |
| Gary Sheffield | 14 | 93% | 1990 |
| Barry Bonds | 14 | 82% | 1987 |
| Eddie Collins | 13 | 100% | 1913 |
| Ty Cobb | 13 | 100% | 1913 |
| Harry Hooper | 13 | 100% | 1913 |
| Sam Rice | 13 | 100% | 1917 |
| Joe Kuhel | 13 | 100% | 1931 |
| Billy Herman | 13 | 100% | 1932 |
| Doc Cramer | 13 | 100% | 1933 |
| Ted Williams | 13 | 100% | 1939 |
| Richie Ashburn | 13 | 100% | 1948 |
| Willie Randolph | 13 | 100% | 1976 |
| Goose Goslin | 13 | 93% | 1923 |
I knew Yastrzemski was good, but I never would have guessed that he would have the most seasons with a higher walk than strikeout rate. Even accounting for longevity, he accomplished the feat in 86% of his qualified seasons. He did benefit a bit from the sharp decline in strikeout rates that started in 1969, but even still amassing 18 such seasons is an impressive feat.
If we just restrict the list to players whose first season in the majors was later than 1970, the leader board looks like this:
| Name | # of Seasons | % of Player’s Qualified Seasons | First Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rickey Henderson | 17 | 89% | 1980 |
| Ozzie Smith | 15 | 94% | 1978 |
| Wade Boggs | 14 | 100% | 1983 |
| Tony Gwynn | 14 | 100% | 1984 |
| Mark Grace | 14 | 100% | 1988 |
| Gary Sheffield | 14 | 93% | 1990 |
| Barry Bonds | 14 | 82% | 1987 |
| Willie Randolph | 13 | 100% | 1976 |
| George Brett | 13 | 72% | 1975 |
| Tim Raines | 12 | 92% | 1981 |
| John Olerud | 11 | 92% | 1991 |
| Brett Butler | 11 | 85% | 1983 |
| Darrell Evans | 11 | 73% | 1972 |
| Brian Giles | 10 | 100% | 1999 |
| Bill Madlock | 10 | 91% | 1974 |
| Don Mattingly | 10 | 91% | 1984 |
| Toby Harrah | 10 | 83% | 1973 |
| Albert Pujols | 10 | 83% | 2001 |
| Frank Thomas | 10 | 71% | 1991 |
| Buddy Bell | 10 | 67% | 1972 |
| Mike Hargrove | 9 | 100% | 1975 |
| Brian Downing | 9 | 90% | 1975 |
| Keith Hernandez | 9 | 82% | 1977 |
| Edgar Martinez | 9 | 69% | 1990 |
| Chipper Jones | 9 | 64% | 1995 |
| Ted Simmons | 9 | 60% | 1971 |
| Eric Young | 8 | 89% | 1993 |
| Ken Singleton | 8 | 67% | 1972 |
| Todd Helton | 8 | 67% | 1998 |
| Paul Molitor | 8 | 47% | 1978 |
We can see that the leader board is dominated by players whose first season was between 1980 and 1989 (14). That’s partially a function of the starting year, but also reflects the hitters in that era (Boggs, Gwynn, etc.) as well as the sharp increase in strikeout rates starting around the 1992 season.
The big takeaway is that finishing the season with a higher walk rate is incredibly rare in the current environment. It wouldn’t be surprising if at least a few of the current six players didn’t manage to hold on through the end of this season.
Nice work, Bill.
Of the post-1970 players, Gary Sheffield sticks out as something of a surprise. I knew he walked quite a bit but his avoidance of strikeouts is pretty amazing–tied with Bonds for # of seasons (14) with more BB than K, quite a feat for power hitters.
Nice. This always intrigued me. We all are well aware of the skewing of stats by the “Steroid Era” and the “Dead Ball Era”, but the “BB > K” throws the stats off kilter as well.
I wonder what Joe DiMaggio’s BB/K would be if you dropped him in to the current era…
Joe D would have a lot more SOs than he did.
DiMaggio played most of his years before the AL integrated. There were seven other teams he played against with an artificially low talent pool due to segregation. His numbers would look a lot different.
He also wouldn’t have to hit into the 490 ft Death Valley in left-center field. His numbers would look different, but I think he’d still be an MVP.
Nice work. I guess it’s impossible, but it would be interesting to tease out how much comes from hitters being more aggressive and how much is attributable to the other side with specialized relief pitchers and increased use of sliders, etc.
I cannot imagine two more different players than Jeff Keppinger and Albert Pujols, but apparently they share the distinction of Walking more than striking out.
Emilio Bonifacio and Carlos Lee are surely more different than Jeff Keppinger and Albert Pujols? Or maybe Kent Hrbek and Rickey Henderson.
I thought a brief picture of active career numbers would be interesting. Aside from Pujols, Jones and Helton, the only 4 active players (min. 3000 PAs) with career BB% greater than their career K% are Pedroia, Mauer, Carlos Ruiz (barely), and Pierre (barely).
WIth retirements and decline, by next year the list could be down to 3-4.
Don’t forget about the amazingly disciplined Ian Kinsler:
2011: 89 BB [12.3%], 71 K [9.8 %]
Although he’s regressing a bit this year, albeit with a greater BA.
Next up… The emergence of pitchers that strikout a higher rate of hitters!
Two-way street here.
Was thinking about this just today! Different pitches, multiple pitchers per game, and the hitters’ willingness to swing away behind in the count (allowing pitchers to throw off the plate and still get outs) are just as much a change as the appreciate of the all-or-nothing approach.
Surprised Cal Ripken didn’t make the list.
Would have guessed he had 8 seasons in which he had more BB than SO.
Looked it up, Ripken had 7! lol
FWIW, Votto would have been on this list 2 days ago. He’s currently at 60:60
K:BB, but he K’d 6 times in his last 4 games while walking twice.
Chipper’s also on the 50/50 list. 18:18 K:BB…
Nice piece.
I find it striking that although these (“modern” group) are all good hitters, they don’t seem to have much else in common. Madlock and Evans, for instance, contemporary NL 3B: Evans struck out a lot (several years over 100) and walked a ton, while Madlock walked some and struck out rarely.
Check out the all-time K/BB leaderboard for pitchers. It’s an interesting list. Jon Lieber is #11. Of all time!
I’m pretty sure Jose Bautista has been fairly close to more BB’s than K’s all season.
You would be correct. 48BB and 50K’s.
Your list is missing the great Al Kaline, 17 years.
But I think this is one of those things that has changed in the game, lack pitch recognition, plate discipline be dammed, most every player is now looking to drive a ball well over 400/450 feet, and not working the count, and taking pitches low or off the corner.
Kaline had 12 qualified seasons out of 15 with BB% > K%, so he missed the top 30.
Looks like Pujols is probably gonna do this again. 3 walks last night and he only has 6 more strikeouts than walks on the season. He’s done it every year since his rookie season in 2001, and in some years (2008 and 2006) he’s had nearly twice the amount of walks as strikeouts.
Attributed to hitters being conditioned to Chicks Dig The Longball sort of mentality? Pitcher specialization? A hell of a lot more data on hitters’ zones and tendancies through video and pitch F/X? Some combination thereof?
naa, more attributable to not getting on base by any means necessary, even if its a bunt, or a walk, or a “less glamorous” manner. I dont want to merely be on base. I wanna be the person that is on the nights highlight reel. Bunts and walks dont get me there. Plus, ever hear of a player being paid very well because he can hit a bunt or take a walk? (as his big line on the resume)
Absolutely there are players who are good just because of that. If Carlos Pena couldn’t take a walk he’d be a bad, bad player. Same with Adam Dunn, and all your TTO hitters.
It’s two things, really – now, pitching prospects MUST be able to strike guys out, so we take high K pitchers rather than “pitch to contact” guys. And now people are realising that striking out 200 times a year is not bad if you walk a ton and club 40 homers like a Mark Reynolds.
So we’ve incentivised pitchers to strike guys out, and de-emphasised the K as a negative outcome for hitters. Sure you’re going to see more strikeouts.
According to your graph walk rates have not trended up since 1920. Walk rates reached their peak in 1948-1949 – fell until about 1970 – then made a one year rise and have largely remained flat since.
Yeah, according the graph at least walk rates look like they’ve been 8-10% for 90 years. Strikeout rates and walk rates truly diverged in about 1950, looks like.
It’s slight, but if you look at the actual data there is a slight upward trend over time. But, agreed, I probably worded it too strongly in the piece.
Amazingly, walks are still just not valued enough. My favorite is Gene Tenace’s 1977 season when he hit .233 with a .415 OBP. But there’s also Jimmy Wynn’s 1976 when he hit .207 with a .376 OBP. Players like that just don’t exist anymore.
Adam Dunn? Jack Cust?
Ben Zobrist and Jose Bautista are doing it this year…
Carlos Pena certainly, as well.
I would like to see a study of this data against the trends of the effectiveness of pitchers…however someone would like to judge pitcher effectiveness.
any possibility that an effect could be felt from the rise of latin players? the old adage of, “you don’t walk off the island” and all that.
It took me about 10 minutes to understand the drop in the mid 1940′s. Now I feel really, really dumb.