The Edwin Jackson Trade: Chicago’s Perspective
One of the league’s most active teams when it comes to the trading deadline, the Chicago White Sox have acquired Edwin Jackson from the Diamondbacks for pitchers Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg.
Jackson is now in his fifth organization since he made his major league debut in 2003. Either he’s a very valuable commodity, or someone that teams views as easily acquired rotation filler.
While Jackson is a White Sox for now, do we know if he will be one on Saturday evening? There has been rumored interest in a three-way swap between the Diamondbacks, Nationals and White Sox, with Adam Dunn ending up in Chicago and Jackson landing with the Nats.
While Jackson’s strikeout and walk rates haven’t been great this year, he’s made up for it by getting ground balls. His GB% has been hovering around 40% most of his career, but he’s brought it up to an impressive 50.5% this season. This made up for the possible detriment that is Arizona’s home park, and should help keep balls from flying out of The Cell. Since Jackson has pitched in the AL Central before, his numbers shouldn’t unexpectedly decline (or increase for that matter).
Jackson is under contract for $8.35 million next year, thanks to a two-year deal from the D’Backs that was heavily back loaded. While Jackson isn’t a stud, he’ll be worth his contract and a little more. After next season, Jackson will be a free agent and should be able to command about $10 million a year on the open market.
As for what they gave up, Hudson was the team’s top pitching prospect, but there are questions about his long term role. He’s got a decent fastball and change-up, but his breaking ball is inconsistent. While he showed some good GB rates in the minors, he’s been an extreme flyball guy in his brief time in the big leagues, and the White Sox may have decided that he gives up too many balls in the air to succeed in their park, especially since he doesn’t have a knockout pitch to rack up a ton of strikeouts. Still, he’s a decent young arm, and one that will be under team control through 2016.
Kenny Williams likes to deal, but this is not one of his better ones. One may expect the price for Jackson to be lower than what the White Sox paid, given what the returns were for superior pitchers in Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren. Instead of keeping Hudson and letting him fill the rotation spot that Jake Peavy vacated, the White Sox decided to go out and fill it with a more expensive source. While Jackson probably won’t be enough by himself to change the direction of the White Sox’s season, he is a good piece for this year and beyond. All that remains to be seen is if he will stay a White Sox for long.
Max Scherzer + Daniel Schlereth = 4 months of Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, and David Holmberg (for now.)
This doesn’t make any sense. Kids, this is not how equations work.
Einstein facepalm.
wow lol he just made up names…
Ian Kennedy has been better than Scherzer this year. Schlereth hasn’t pitched in the majors this season, and the other 2 could potentially be better than schlereth.
Scherzer has been better in every aspect of the game except a slightly higher ERA. Since his stint in the minors he has been much better than Kennedy.
Schlereth was up earlier this month for a very brief time. I don’t think the Tigers are under any illusions as to his shortcomings, but he was a nice piece to supplement the deal.
Kennedy has been decent, but better than Scherzer? Not sure about that. Neither have really done anything to distinguish themselves yet.
I’m a Twins fan. As much as the Twins’ trade for Capps mystified me, this one may have topped it. Hudson is the consensus top pitching prospect for the White Sox, and he’s essentially big league ready. They trade him for a guy who’s making many millions more than Hudson would for at least 3 years, but actually is projected by ZIPs for a higher FIP for the rest of the season (4.16 for Jackson, 4.06 for Hudson). Now they get Jackson for this year and then next year at $8+ million instead of Hudson for this year and the next five?
Believe me, most of us White Sox fans don’t understand it either unless it’s because Washington wants Jackson instead of Hudson in a trade for Dunn. Either that, or “The Don” Cooper sees some sort of purportedly easily fixable flaw that will quickly turn him around. None of us discount his ability to change the fortunes of talented pitchers (Thornton, Danks, Floyd, etc) but he’s also got some failures (Mike MacDougal being an obvious one) where he never was able to do much of anything.
Agreed… it makes no sense to swap a younger and cheaper 5th starter for an older and more expensive 5th starter while also throwing in another player/prospect.
As a White Sox fan, I can only hope this doens’t lead to even worse of a deal for Adam Dunn that leaves us with shoddy defense, poor baserunning, not advancing runners, and late-inning strikeouts. Granted, I’ve become accustomed to this over the last few years, but I was really hoping this season we’d turn the corner.
Chris Sale seems to be the consensus top pitching prospect of late… until he gets traded or blows his arm out.
There is no possible way that Dunn wouldn’t help in a major way (since they’re not going to trade Beckham or Quentin away as Washington has asked for before). He’d take Kotsay’s roster spot and play DH and first base. Kotsay has been beyond worthless. Dunn gets on base and hits home runs, two things that the Sox’s left handed hitters have been terrible at this year, because they have been terrible at hitting period.
Yeah, the Sox certainly don’t make any poor baserunning decisions or leave men on base with the likes of Juan Pierre, Mark Kotsay, and Andruw Jones getting regular reps in the lineup. Good grief, 2005 is going to forever deify the grinder mystique.
I would prefer to see Quentin get DH and have the Sox overpay for Werth, Luke Scott, or someone not named Adam Dunn who could hopefully play better OF defense and add versatility. Dunn’s walks are down, strikeouts are up.
It’s not that I don’t think Dunn would be an upgrade over Kotsay or whomever else is in there, but they are downgrading their pitching staff and farm system in the process, all for the sake of what exactly? Garcia will the the fourth starter and Tony Pena or Carlos Torres will be the fifth starter. I think it’s pretty doubtful they can make the playoffs with that starting rotation, and certainly, I don’t think very much of their chances in the World Series (4 games at an NL team to be named later). Dunn’s never been on a team that’s made the playoffs, and unless he goes to the Yankees, that’s probably not going to change this year.
By the way, I think the Jim Thome experience showed us how valuable a left handed DH that can hit HRs and strikeout is…. 1 playoff appearance, 1 playoff win in 4 years.
That’s just plain silly. If Albert Pujols was surrounded by a team with Nick Blackburn-caliber pitchers and Jason Kendall-caliber hitters, would you hold it against him if his team didn’t make the playoffs, or didn’t do well when they got there? Would you think any less of him as a player?
And, as a Twins fan, I am very happy to have Jim Thome this year. He has been quite valuable.
There was almost zero demand for Hudson’s “value” with any of the significant deals the WS tried to pull off. Hudson was another mediocre prospect that the WS primed to be traded.
This is a very typical “inbetweener” for Kenny Williams. Make the team a little better for now, and keep the team a little better for the short-term future. Edwin is pretty typical to the rehabilitation projects the WS usually take on. Physically strong… Throws hard… has some promise for the high ground ball rate… has command issues…
Who knows if it makes sense, but either way, for the WS I don’t think Hudson is the guy you want to keep around even with several years of control.
My point with the Jim Thome comment was to show the emphasis on adding a left-handed power hitter to this White Sox team is misguided and the wrong direction for trying to improve the team. I’m sure Thome has been valuable to the Twins with Morneau going down, and he would undoubtedly have some value on the White Sox or any other AL team…
Because ZIPs isn’t a bible. It’s a tool that can be used to help but not to live by as if it’s some sort of infallible code. And Hudson so far has proven himself incapable of being a rotation piece on a team trying to make a run at a pennant this year, or even a rotation piece in general. I’m a D’backs fan and I like this move, but it makes us worse in the short term and the White Sox better in the short term. Kenny Williams knows these numbers inside and out, trust me. He also knows why the term “prospect” exists.
The Sox are old, we can admit it. This is their time to make as many playoff runs as possible to get some nice revenue flowing through that organization for when they rebuild. EJ (or Adam Dunn) gives them a better chance at doing that over the next two years.
I don’t mean to say ZIPs is a bible. It was just an example that Hudson is viewed very highly, and might be as good as Edwin Jackson is right now.
So yes, it’s certainly possible that the White Sox improved in the short term, but if they did, I don’t think it was by all that much. And the cost was exorbitant, as they’ll be paying around $10 million for 1+ years of Edwin Jackson, when they could have Hudson under control for 6 years at a MUCH lower per year cost.
And, ‘thus far’ equates to 3 starts. Hudson dominated in AAA, so I think he deserves a bit more of a chance to prove himself. And maybe the White Sox can’t afford that bit of time that Hudson needs to develop, but I would have thought they could have gotten a Jackson-type player for less than this.
Don’t forget that Jackson will probably be worth some draft picks when his contract runs out. He should easily be a ‘B’.
But would it be worth it to offer him arbitration?
Absolutely.
Jackson is likely young enough that he could sign two long-term contracts in his career, something that very very few players have a chance to do. To give that up for a one-year arbitration deal was be painfully stupid.
Zack help me understand what this mean from your article: “While Jackson probably won’t be enough by himself to change the direction of the White Sox’s season..” ?
The White Sox are in first right now in the central, so are you implying that he [Jackson] will cause them to fall out of first or are you implying that he [Jackson] won’t help them fend of the Twins?
Or do the Sox just need to keep playing the Ms to stay in first…
Yeah, really not sure about which direction Zack thinks the White Sox season is going. Sure, it’s been against (mostly) lesser teams, but these have been an amazing two months.
It cracks me up that everyone, except the White Sox knows that Hudson is great and is ready fir the rotation. If he was that good, he’d be in the rotation.
I also enjoy the wording. People are determined that DET made a bad trade, despite the evidence, and EJ, ho hum, was merely worth his contract.
Anyone ever consider that EJ for AD44 was in the works before the CWS traded a top prospect for him? Regardless he fills in for Peavey. I have not heard many Sox reports that Hudson would be anything but relief due to his limited pitch selection.
Wouldn’t the Nats prefer a prospect with more upside in trade for Dunn? Where is your justification that they prefer Edwin Jackson.
Why did Arizona trade Scherzer to begin with? He’s a much better upside than Ian Kennedy or Daniel Hudson.
Scherzer’s better for both, but two SP arms controlled for 5-6 years apiece is greater than one arm controlled for the same amount of time.
Especially when that one arm lasts until the 5th, and has moderate control.
We had the same conversation many times last year. Max has electric stuff. The problem is he just doesn;t locate it well enough.
He looks to be league average this year, and that’s probably where he’ll settle in.
He’s also a big injury risk due to poor/sloppy mechanics and has never thrown more than 170 IP at any level. I don;t where folks were thinking he was a 1 or 2 in the rotation.
Schlereth’s control is even worse 7 BB/9. Schlereth is not an answer to any bullpen question.
Again, I don;t know where people are getting this idea that Schlereth and Scherzer are a future combo of ace and closer. Folks, they’re not.
Arizona definitely deserves as much credit for this deal as they did criticism for the Haren trade. Kennedy and Hudson are a good value going forward, and they got a pretty good half-year out of Jackson before the back-end of his contract kicks in.
After spending a year watching him pitch in 2009 on pins and needles, just praying his arm didn’t explode every time he threw the ball, I’m just fine with IPK and Hudson. In fact, I love it.
Also, IPK & Hudson combine to be cheaper. Scherzer makes approx. $1.5MM with his pro-rated signing bonus on his original contract. While it’s fairly insignificant, that’s money that can go to signing Linton or Ziomek.
AZ seemed to try and be competitive this year (ALR, EJ, etc), but when that didn’t work out … they traded guys at a reasonable trade value, and are accumulating young arms, in hopes of competing in the nearish future (2012?).
Brandon Webb’s injuries killed the squad, and really added to the workload of the bullpen, who has struggled with both fatigue and effectiveness (and now injuries).
AZ might be one of those teams that is interesting to watch. They may develop into a type of “Oakland A’s” of some years ago, where they had some really good position players, and their young pitchers all “came through” at the same time, and they were able to do some really good things on a team-friendly budget.
.. or they might not. *grin*
Unless Don Cooper sees some kind of mechanical flaw that could be fixed I’m not really understanding this trade. It’s not like Hudson has impressed since being called up, but as a 5th starter going for the rest of the season is Jackson really going to be that much better? And for 8.4 million next season with Danks due for an extension seems like a poor allocation of money.
And trading Jackson for Dunn just fills a need while creating another one. The Sox have been on a fantastic roll, but had they just freaking signed Thome in the spring instead of placating Ozzie this wouldn’t be such a huge mess.
Just “meh” any way you slice it. Unless some miracle happens and they get Dunn without parting with Quentin/Jackson/Beckham.
Yes. He (EJ) is going to be that much better (than Hudson) for the rest of this season. And probably next season.
Also, if you trade EJ for Dunn, you’re looking to get Brett Myers.
Seems to me Jackson is a known quantity and Hudson is not. The two seem pretty equal to me but Jackson is more likely to eat innings and not get knocked out early, saving the bullpen a little. The White Sox have a strong bullpen and reliably average starting pitching would seem desirable to avoid burning the pen for two or three days if someone like Hudson has a few truly bad outings.
This seems to be turning into a lite version of “Kenny Williams overpaid – again.” The White Sox always seem to give up higher rated prospects than seems necessary to get deals done. I always ask how many of those guys they really miss. Answers like “Clayton Richard” or “Chris Young” just prove my point. Deals have to be evaluated when made but like a draft are best evaluated a few years later. If you didn’t lose anything valuable, how can it have been bad even if you didn’t get anything back? Overall, KW has gotten far better than he has given. Thornton, Danks, Floyd, Rios, Quentin have all been picked up for a bunch of nothing.
(Cue “Nick Swisher” comments because one bad deal should define any GM’s career)
Yeah, that’s just it… These are highly rated prospects WITHIN the WS system. I really doubt anyone will be missing Dan Hudson years from now. Edwin is still an upgrade. A strange piece to add, but that’s what you get for a middle of the road prospect. Hudson shot up the charts over the last 12 months after receiving very little consideration as a “legit” prospect before the age of 22. Through Kenny’s eyes, I believe he was selling Hudson high before his stock took a significant hit.
Jackson’s contract ends after the 2011 season as does the Collective Bargaining Agreement between owners and players. The new agreement could include the elimination of draft choice compensation for the loss of free agents.