The Edwin Jackson/Matt Joyce trade

I’ve said a lot of good things about Dave Dombrowski this week, who made moves I liked in picking up Gerald Laird and Adam Everett to fill holes without surrendering much talent expending a lot of payroll. Well, yesterday, he took all that good will and gave it right back, making a ridiculously bad trade with Tampa Bay, sending outfielder Matt Joyce to the Rays for RHP Edwin Jackson.

We’ll start with Jackson – odds are that Dombrowski sees him as a young, high upside hurler who just had a breakthrough season and established himself as an innings eater at worst with potential to become a mid-rotation starter. After all, he threw 180 innings, posted a 4.42 ERA, just turned 25 years old, throws hard, and was considered a top prospect not too long ago.

However, Jackson didn’t have any kind of breakout year – he’s the same pitcher he’s always been. His FIP in 2007 was 4.90. His FIP in 2008 was 4.88. He cut his BB% down by over a full walk per game, but his strikeout rate fell from 7.16 to 5.30, canceling out the effect of the better command. The huge drop in ERA was thanks to the significantly improved defense the Rays put behind him (.351 BABIP in ’07, .301 in ’08) and some good luck stranding runners. The Rays defense isn’t going with him to Detroit, and the luck probably won’t either.

Jackson’s not useless – Marcel thinks he’ll put up a 4.64 FIP over 160 innings next year, so that makes him about +5 runs worse than an average pitcher and +15 runs better than a replacement level version. As a #5 starter, he’s not a problem, but that’s all he is.

To get Jackson, the Tigers parted with Matt Joyce, one of the few promising young players they had left in the organization. I generally don’t go for one for one comparisons that often, but in this case, the Jayson Werth comp works so well that I feel obligated to put it out there. Joyce is, essentially, a left-handed Werth – a guy who can play very good defense in a corner OF spot, has gap power and will walk occasionally, but whose lower contact rate will always keep his average down. Depending on how well he adjusts to being a full time player, the Rays should expect something between .260/.320/.430 and .270/.340/.470.

That makes Joyce something like a +2 win outfielder right now, and if he hits the high side of that projection, it’s more like +2.5 to +3 wins. Joyce is a better player, right now, than Jackson. He’s also under team control for two extra years and isn’t arb. eligible after the 2009 season as Jackson will be.

For the Rays, this is a huge win – they solve their right field issue with a quality, low cost player that easily gives them the game’s best defensive outfield. A Crawford/Upton/Joyce trio is going to be staggeringly good at chasing down balls in the gap. To boot, they open up a spot in the rotation for David Price, so they’re almost certainly going to be upgrading their rotation simultaneously.

The Rays get a lot better, while the Tigers shuffle pieces around and cost themselves some flexibility. Thumps up for Tampa, and a big thumbs down for Detroit.




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Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.

56 Responses to “The Edwin Jackson/Matt Joyce trade”

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  1. Adding Joyce’s talents plus losing Jackson’s contributions is a double-win for the Rays. I know some in the front office have been big fans of Joyce and were thrilled to get him for such a low price.

    I’m looking forward to seeing a Crawford/Upton/Joyce defensive outfield and I bet a lot of the Rays pitchers are as well.

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  2. David Foy says:

    Defensively Crawford/Upton/Joyce could be one the best outfields in the majors. Crawford is on of the best if not the best in the game and the Rays have no surrounded him with above-average outfielders. Not much space for a hitter to fit it in out in the Rays outfield. With the rotation they have and now an even more improved defense I don’t see the Rays giving up many runs next year.
    WOW is the AL East good or what?

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  3. Terry says:

    Jackson is an upgrade over Dontrelle Willis.

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  4. NadavT says:

    Talk about damning with faint praise.

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  5. Nicholus says:

    I am tired of Dombrowski’s fascination bordering on fetish with pitchers who “throw real hard.” I’m not sure he’s ever managed to acquire a pitcher who has ever had a modicum of control, aside from possibly Galarraga.

    Farnsworth and Bautista performed poorly and are now gone, and he’s tried to fill the bullpen and now the rotation with guys who are flamethrowers. I wouldn’t be so remiss, either, if it had actually worked. Our best reliever (Seay) throws 91 and our best starter last year threw 91, too. I don’t have a thing against power pitchers, but when it’s the only thing you look to get and you actively seek to get them at any cost…it makes for bad trades.

    Dombrowski thinks the solution to all of the Tigers’ problems is MPH, when it’s clearly not.

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  6. Josh says:

    re:defensive outfield
    Dave, I guess you’re assuming Balentian is starting next year?

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  7. JWay says:

    Josh, via his recent posts at USSMariner, it looks like it.

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  8. Jon says:

    Anyone know how a Crawford/Upton/Joyce outfield would compare to Endy Chavez/Franklin Gutierrez/Ichiro for Seattle?

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  9. Goose says:

    I am not a huge fan of Edwin Jackson, but looking at his 2008 numbers, I see he had an average year. Average BABIP and an average HR/fly ball %. In fact his groundball rate was the worst of his career. There is not one statistic that shows Jackson’s year to be a fluke and he is still only 25 years old. Plenty of time to continue improvement. I don’t think the deal is as onesided as people think.

    Joyce on the other hand had a 14.1 HR/fly ball %, not going to last. So looking at those 12 HRs, I don’t expect mor than 20 in 500 ABs, to go along with a low batting average and high strikeout rate.

    A trade that filled a hole on each team.

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  10. LeeAll says:

    If Edwin Jackson keeps Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis out of the rotation then this is a great pickup for Detroit.

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  11. thefume says:

    I view this trade as a prospect for a prospect. You are not seeing the final version of either Joyce or Jackson. Joyce has to show he can hit the breaking ball, Jackson has to show he can control his pitches. Don’t let the fact that they both played in the majors fool you, neither is done developing. If both develop, it’s a win-win, because the Rays needed an OF and the Tigers needed pitching. Joyce is under control for 3 more years, but Jackson is a SP, so I think that factor evens out.

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  12. Terry says:

    Here’s the thing about Jackson. He was below average for a starter in two very key categories: K/9 and BB/9.

    It was another year where he didn’t get better. In fact his BIP tendencies are discouraging (though they might not be trending in a real sense).

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  13. Sky says:

    Goose, Jackson had a 1.4 K/BB ratio in 2008, on par with his career norms. His FIP, with an appropriate HR/FB rate, was 4.88. His ERA was a tad low for his skills. In a league that averaged a 4.48 ERA for starters, he’s a “4th starter”. He’s not an average starter, no way.

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  14. Teej says:

    Goose,

    I think it was a mix of a lot of things. According to Fangraphs data, his BABIP was lower than where it should have been by between 20 and 30 points considering his high LD%, which isn’t a huge deal, but it’s there. 40% of his balls in play were fly balls. He stranded 76% of his runners. And he just plain stopped striking guys out.

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  15. Rory says:

    I think the statistic are a little misleading on Jackson. He was very erratic in 2008. But on nights when he was on, he was very impressive. Watching the guy in person on a night when he was in his groove would likely change your mind. I think he will continue to improve in Detroit if he is handled well. Unfortunately he is not taking Hickey (pitching coach) with him. Hickey was masterful with all the Rays pitchers and it sounds like he may get dodgy handling in Detroit.

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  16. Teej says:

    I think the statistic are a little misleading on Jackson. He was very erratic in 2008. But on nights when he was on, he was very impressive.

    But that means you have to put up with him when he’s not on. And I don’t think you can ignore the many times Jackson was awful and just look at the good outings and call the stats misleading. The stats measure what he did last year. Everyone has good days and bad; that’s why we try to look at big sample sizes. And while 2008 was a slight improvement over 2007, he was still pretty awful.

    That’s not to say he can’t be refined, but I wouldn’t want to make that bet. Wonderful trade by the Rays.

    Also, I can’t get enough of this, so I’ll repeat it: Jackson had a lower K% than Andy Sonnanstine last year.

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  17. firemanfig says:

    You guys are forgetting one very important factor. The Tigers now have a real pitching coach in place of Fred Flintstone Hernandez from last year. Remember Roger Craig. This new could could help.

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  18. Rory says:

    Your point Teej is definitely a valid one. So far he has been a tease and he has certainly not arrived as a consistent MLB pitcher. By the same token, neither has Joyce. I only saw him twice last year and couldn’t see too much with such a small sample size. His minor league stats don’t look overly impressive, but folks seem to be high on him so I will look to 2009 with hope. Does he become the next Jason Bay or the next Greg Gross? We don’t need another of the later. I am not down on Gross, but no team needs two.

    I didn’t realize that Roger Craig was the Tiger’s new pitching coach. I thought he was about the same age as Don Zimmer — I can’t believe he is still around! But if he is still passionate I agree he could make a difference.

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  19. Teej says:

    I hear you, Rory. Every year I take a flier on Daniel Cabrera in my fantasy league. I’m fascinated by him. Sometimes you just have a gut feeling — even if the player keeps kicking you in the gut.

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  20. Rory says:

    The Cabrera reference is perfect! He too has traded his high strikeout rate for better control/less walks — but overall has not become much more effective. Just less exciting.

    Nolan Ryan is a great example of someone that eventually got it all together after a number of years of teasing with heat and potential. I am not saying Jackson is in that category, just that some guys do come around. That last comparison fails to hang together with Jackson having been one of those million dollar arm/ 5 cent head kind of guys.

    Time will tell — I saw his last start of the season against the Twins live and he looked like an all-star. Hopefully he picks up from there.

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  21. Nick says:

    I have a feeling by the end of this year, this article is going to look very, very silly.

    I watched Matt Joyce with the Tigers all year last year. He’s not Jayson Werth. The Rays felt so highly of him, they opted to go with the Gabe platoon in left instead and ship Joyce to AAA. I think that’s fairly telling.

    “Well, yesterday, he took all that good will and gave it right back, making a ridiculously bad trade with Tampa Bay,”

    ^ Sorry Dave, that was a pretty dumb claim to make before either player had played a game for their new teams. Even if Jackson didn’t improve at all, this trade was nowhere near “ridiculously bad.” I think if you ask any baseball executive, they’d tell you an average SP is a far more desirable commodity than an average OF. Too bad Jackson probably won’t keep up his 2.14 ERA.

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    • BradD says:

      I guess I might be missing something, but Jackson looks like a quality starter. He does not strike out that many hitters but his stuff is excellent. He seems so efficient with his pitches, he seems to be throughing strikes all the time. He looks like a great addition to the Tiger staff.

      Joyce is a nice young OF, but will trade an OF for a quality starter any day.

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  22. David says:

    “I think if you ask any baseball executive, they’d tell you an average SP is a far more desirable commodity than an average OF. Too bad Jackson probably won’t keep up his 2.14 ERA.”

    The whole point was that Edwin Jackson is not an average starter – he’s a low-end starter. Nothing has changed this season – yes, he has an excellent ERA and a 1-0 record, but check out his peripherals. 5.57 K/9 and 2.14 BB/9 isn’t bad, but 1.29 HR/9 is pretty worrying (and his HR/FB%, even at this early stage, isn’t anomalous at all). All told he has an FIP of 4.62, which is very close to all of the projections (within 0.05 of CHONE, Marcel, and ZiPS), and reflective of a 4th/5th starter.

    Moreover, his miniscule .163 BABIP is completely unsustainable (his career BABIP is .315) and so is his 85.9% LOB (career 70.0%). All those guys who are touting Jackson as a star based on these three starts are in for a disappointment, when those flyouts turn into extra base hits and his ERA starts reflecting his true skill level.

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    • Nick says:

      Star? I don’t think Jackson is a star. If I had a guess, he’ll probably post another 14 wins with a 4.25 ERA or so. However, a simple look at the Tigers 2009 roster would show that the team needs healthy and effective starting pitchers WAY more than they need a 4th OF. I also feel like I should point out that he could very easily outperform his FIP.

      My main point of contention is that the article calls this a “ridiculously bad trade.” It’s nowhere close to “ridiculously bad.”

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  23. David in DC says:

    This is going to come down to semantics. You can describe a pitcher as:
    An Ace
    A Star
    An All-star
    A #1 pitcher
    A #2 pitcher
    A #3 pitcher
    A #4 pitcher
    A #5 pitcher
    A front line starter
    A back of the rotation starter
    A solid starter
    An average starter
    An innings eater
    A quality starter
    a AAAA starter
    or a low end starter

    As written above, the Tigers traded a surplus for a need. If Jackson turns out to be a #5 starter (I guess that would be a low end starter), it was a smart trade.

    BTW:
    Why can’t we say both teams benefit? Why does it have to be a steal for one side all the time? For example, Volquez-Hamilton was a good trade for both teams.

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  24. MPAUL says:

    This article was a big mistake….Joyce will never be anything special…not even close to Jayson Werth. I understand Edwin Jackson is performing well above his normal numbers but even if he falls to a 4.00 ERA this trade was brilliant. The tigers are an offensive team and like the Rays last year, Jackson has the potential to win 14+ games even with a higher ERA. The Tigs have not been putting runs up for him but when they do, he will win. He has surpassed my expectations already and Joyce isn’t going to make an impact in TB. This article is ridiculous and probably should be taken down because it makes no sense. If your calling this a stupid trade for the tigers, you know nothing about baseball and just look at stats. After watching Joyce for a year I believe he is ok and may hit 20 homers in a year but struggle against lefties. The Tigers have a surplus of OF’s in Thames, Larish, Rayburn, Clevlen, J. Anderson, and you could even throw in Wilkin Ramirez. Hmmm, the tigers have a shortage of pitching and a surplus of OF’s, what should they do? To criticize trade like this is stupid because who knows, maybe the tigers saw something in Jackson and can turn him into a solid #2 or #3 starter. The front office certainly knows anything they get from Bonderman and Dontrelle is a bonus. The only reason they got Dontrelle was becasue the Marlins didn’t want his salary and both sides knew he was declining. But…………..in conclusion, this article is by far the most retarded thing I’ve ever seen on this site

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    • Dave Cameron says:

      This trade is basically a litmus test for how well you understand baseball.

      You failed.

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      • Nick says:

        Dave, there are a lot of things I disagree with you about, and I think Fangraphs really does a poor job of covering the Tigers at times.

        However, in this case, you are exactly right in that MPAUL failed. That post was ridiculous.

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    • Jeff says:

      It doenst matter what you say, the writers on this site HATE the Tigers and will never admit a mistake they made in reference to them.

      I recall a while back they had the orgizational rankings, which had the Tigers ranked very low because the “economy” was going to prevent them from doing much. Some people tried to argue that the owner of the Tigers, Mr. Illitch would continue to spend money no matter what.
      EVERYONE said these people didnt have a clue…

      THEN ILLITCH GOES AND CUTS A $14MILLION PLAYER, AND DONATES THE CENTERFIELD ADVERTISING TO THE BIG 3!!!!

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      • lookatthosetwins says:

        The writers on this site hate the tigers? Are you serious? I just can’t imagine how people can’t get over their biases and look at things at least fairly objectively. I didn’t like where the Twins were in the organizational rankings. That doesn’t mean that I think Fangraphs “Hates” the Twins.

        Dave, and the rest of the writers will make mistakes. But every article is backed up consistently by statistics and is looked at objectively.

        Even if Edwin Jackson comes out of nowhere at has a good year, that doesn’t change the fact that all signs pointed at this being a bad trade.

        I’m sure there are plenty of Tigers websites where they talk about how amazing the organization is. The MLB.com Tigers website would be a good place to start.

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    • Terry says:

      Why did the Tigers extend Willis, me wonders to meself out loud while eating me some spinach…

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  25. MPAUL says:

    This trade is reminiscent of Jair for Rentaria for me…but the Tigers got the better end this time

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    • RollingWave says:

      Both trade were bad in concept, though the Jackson / Joyce one wasn’t quiet so bad due to Jackson’s age and stuff along with Joyce’s lack of exposure.

      Rentaria for Jair had F.A.I.L written all over it even if Jair ended up sucking for the Braves. Rentaria is exactly the guy you DON’T trade a interesting youngester for . He’s old. he’s mixed in a few awesome years with a lot of poor to mediocare onces (and was comming off one of the said awesome years) .

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  26. Kevin says:

    No, this trade is not anything like the Renteria trade at all. In the Renteria trade, Edgar was a proven player coming off some phenomenal seasons (for a SS), and the guys going back were far from proven.

    Matt Joyce had a whole season of major league ball under his belt, but was a 4th OF for a team that had a ton of OF options already (especially with Carlos Guillen shifting out there). The Rays traded Jackson because David Price was going to be coming up this season anyway, and there really wouldn’t have been a better time to sell high. The Rays had (and still do have) a ton of pitching, and were simply dealing from a huge point of strength.

    The Rays didn’t get fleeced in the deal (like I said, they could afford to give up Edwin), because it’s highly doubtful that Jackson would’ve grown into anything more than he was last season down there. I rarely buy into the change of scenery argument, but Jackson has really been helped by Detroit’s pitching approach this year.

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  27. thefume says:

    The 2 big failures of this analysis was a) extrapolating out 240 ABs from a 24 year old as a gold standard for future prediction while concurrently b) refusing to extrapolate possible improvement from a 25 year old that with 450 ML IP.

    Different standards were used in evaluating the two players.

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  28. mike says:

    Yeah I think “thefume” has the best point on here. Jackson is very erratic at times but he is a very solid pitcher with a wealth of experience and is only 25!!!

    he is promoted way too early and instead of having 3 years of minor league baseball to improve and made his major league debut before he 20 years old!
    Who the fuk is Matt Joyce and what has he done but hit some homeruns and show decent plate discipline??

    Also, you can’t argue that the Rays are just keeping a spot open for David Price when Price is currently struggling in the minors and Sonnastine is failing as a 5th starter. Jackson is pitching better than EVERY starter on the Rays staff right now and TB optioned Joyce to the minors.

    Man, the author looks like a complete idiot a month and a half into the season and TB would undo that trade in a heartbeat

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    • joser says:

      The only “complete idiot” here is the person who would close the book and draw a final conclusion a month and a half into the season.

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  29. JCA says:

    Does anyone really think the 2.60 ERA, the 3:1 K/BB, and the .264 BABIP are sustainable? Jackson has had a great start, but that is a huge jump in all of his career performance levels. For the Tigers fans ho see him every day, or others who can break down pitch/fx and the like, can you explain the improvement?

    In fairness to Joyce, wasn’t he hurt in the spring? When TB brought back Gross and digned Kapler, that sort of squeezed Joyce’s playing time, and he does have options.

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    • Nick says:

      Why woudln’t a 3:1 K/BB rate be sustainable? 25 year old flame throwers aren’t allowed to improve their skills now? I agree that his BABIP is low, but it isn’t that low and I’m pretty sure his FIP is in the low 3s.

      The fact is, he’s a better pitcher than he was last year. Rick Knapp is a damn good pitching coach, and he’s done a lot of work with tightening up Jackson’s control. His slider is much better (fangraphs did an article), and his fastball has more bite than I remember in Tampa. He’s getting a lot of downward sink on his pitches and getting ground balls, while still throwing the 2nd fastest fastball in the American League IIRC. The 2.60 ERA might not be sustained but the 3:1 K/BB rate is not a mirage.

      That isn’t to say that Joyce is a bum. Dave Cameron runs with this absurd Jayson Werth comparison, I don’t think he’s that good. He still hasn’t shown an ability to hit major league breaking pitches, for instance. However, he has 1 option year left beyond this year, and like Jackson he has plenty of time to develop his skills and improve at the plate. I imagine he’ll be a regular starter with TB next year, especially if he has a big season in Durham. He wasn’t injured in ST though. He started the season with Tampa until BJ Upton came back.

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      • JCA says:

        While Joyce broke with the team, he missed about 3 weeks of spring training in March. He kind of lost his chance to be the first option in the platoon.

        Thanks for pointing to a few factors that explain why his past performance does not seem in line with what he’s doing (e.g, pitching coach helping with his control, different slider, etc. . .). The jump he made is the old “if this fireballer ever gets control of his stuff, watch out,” but a good coach who sees something wrong and corrects it happens.

        But back to evaluating the trade – at the time it was made, could a jump of this magnitude have been predictable?

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      • Nick says:

        Maybe Joyce did miss some time and I wasn’t aware. I’ll take your word for it.

        I’m not a big pitch FX guy, and I didn’t watch a whole lot of him with TB, so I can’t make too many statements about his changes, but I watch him all the time with the Tigers now. Watching him now, he just *looks* like someone who should have a 2.60 ERA and a 3:1 K/BB rate. Some pitchers, you watch their stuff and have no idea how they are pitching as well as they are, but there’s nothing surprising about Jackson. I think he’ll end up posting solid #2 type numbers the rest of his career.

        I don’t think anyone really predicting THIS jump. I mean, I’m as big a Jackson fan as there is, and I didn’t even see this coming. The Tigers were breaking in a new coach, no one was sure how good he’d be (you can go ask Justin Verlander how good he’s been). I anticipated some jump in production, but this has been a pleasant surprise. And I don’t think this article misses because of how well Jackson has pitched. My main contention was that Dave discounts the possibility that Jackson might ever improve, while assuming that Matt Joyce will automatically be Jayson Werth, and then coloring it a “ridiculously bad trade.” That was, frankly, a ridiculous dumb statement, even at the time.

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  30. David in DC says:

    “a ridiculously bad trade ”

    whether you are posting a article, or making a comment about an article, hyperbole gets you into trouble and/or makes you look silly

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  31. Terrence says:

    Dave Cameron should turn in his computer and resign. This is one of many articles that he sides with an extreme opinion only to have it blow up in his face. Aren’t you tired of washing egg of your face? You were so far off the mark on this article – what’s next a prediction the Cavs would win it all? Oh yeah, how did that one turn out for you.

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  32. Nick says:

    Edwin Jackson had a ridiculously bad 1 run complete game today. Jayson Joyce watched Gabe Kapler play RF for most of the game.

    And no, 83 innings is no longer a “small sample size.”

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  33. RollingWave says:

    I think that David, one of the point you probably undersestimate is this.

    Pitcher’s stats isn’t quiet as much of a reliable indicator of their future performances as hitters are. There are far more cases of pitchers just suddenly turning it around (for better or worse) than hitters.

    What you said about Jackson is true, he didn’t whiff guys, his FIP wasn’t pretty, and he’s been pretty consistently mediocare or worse in his MLB career so far with very little statistical indicator to suggest that he will improve.

    But pitchers just aren’t quiet the same. I can raise the best example in Curt Schilling, who’s minor league career had NOTHING to suggest that he would be the best K/BB ratio pitcher of all time. nor was his early career in the majors . during the higher level minors and his first 3 seasons in the majors. he had a pretty consistent line… he walked around 3.5 per 9 . whiffed only 5-6 ish per 9, and his WHIP is consistently above 1.3 and often above 1.5

    He was already going into his age 25 season when he was traded to the Phillies . sure, he was still relatively young and hadn’t pitched a ton of innings. but he already had over 100 appearance by that time (because he was a RP mostly) there was litterally not a hint of evidence just looking at the stats page at that point that he would end up being a hall of famer.

    I think in the end though, it was a reasonablly calculated trade on both side. Jackson’s stuff , age , and general make up seem like he has a good chance to break into something different. while Joyce was a reliable bet to be a useful player. Both sides were generally trading from strength to cover weakness, except that the Tigers took the higher risk gamble and seem to be paying off.

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  34. Gregorius says:

    I understand that all trades have significant risk/reward potential, but I can’t figure out why this trade was made on Tampa’s end. At the time, I was mildly upset that the Tiger’s lost Joyce, but I always think these young Toledo kids are going to be the next big thing. Looking at it right now, future aside, did Tampa blow a talent assessment on a young pitcher, or is he really pitching beyond himself? He seems quite dominant on most days, and seems to be a very solid number two, behind a recently Cy Young-esque Verlander. It seems that I am waiting for EJ to come out and stink one up, but lately, when he doesn’t have his best stuff, he can still keep teams under 3-4 runs. I seem to be trusting him exponentially more with each start, making me wonder if Dave D. may have pulled another, though unfortunately recently absent, magic trick. I hope.

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    • Nick says:

      His peripheral numbers are too good at this point to expect a sudden drop-off in production. His FIP is 3.11, so even if he slides to that point, he’ll be pitching at an ace level.

      However, at the time, Tampa had way more pitchers than outfielders. They still do, actually. So the deal made sense. And, considering the articles written at the time about the deal, it’s not like very many people expected Jackson to improve like he has. I think all that happened was, Rick Knapp and the Tigers staff found a way to get him to realize his potential better than the Tampa staff did.

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  35. Rudolph says:

    Eat your words, this guy is pitching like an ace.

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  36. Eric Cioe says:

    This is a case where the numbers indicated a questionable trade. But the Tigers needed someone to munch up innings. That’s why they got him. And then, someone, perhaps Rick Knapp, saw something that they thought could fix his command. I’m not sure if his foot is landing differently now, like Randy Johnson’s was after his meeting with Nolan Ryan, or if it’s something else, but he’s improved a good deal and there is no question that he’s taken the step people have waited years for him to take. His BABIP is low at around .250, but his peripherals still indicate an ERA a shade over 3.00, which is excellent.

    Verlander and Jackson are shaping up to be the best 1-2 the AL has had for a while. In the NL, there was Webb-Haren last year, but Verlander-Jackson is doing better than that. Best 1-2 since Johnson-Schilling? Maybe.

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    • Gibran says:

      Um, no.
      Today’s best 1-2 in baseball is Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.
      Verlander and Jackson not even close to either one.

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      • Eric Cioe says:

        Look at FIP and I’ll bet it’s closer than you think.

        I think the only AL 1-2 that’s even close is Beckett/Lester, and they’re not that close.

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  37. Nick says:

    Ridiculously bad All-Star selection.

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  38. Sean says:

    Much better than the Jason Marquis selection on the NL side

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  39. AT says:

    Wow, this is bad. First of all the Rays stated from day one that Joyce was going to be a platoon guy. That alone made it questionable to give up a young arm like Edwin Jackson right from the start.

    This is one of the things I find funny about the stat/numbers revolution. The age old scouting problems are still there. The desire to share opinions and the need to be right about them still clouds everything

    AT
    Baseball Info Solutions

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  40. Kenyg54 says:

    Edwi Jackson is an All-star…..not that bad a trade

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