The FanGraphs Top 200 Prospect List

Yesterday, we gave you a little bit of a tease, giving you a glimpse into the making of FanGraphs Top 200 Prospect List. This morning, however, we present the list in its entirety, including scouting grades and reports for every prospect rated as a 50 Future Value player currently in the minor leagues. As discussed in the linked introduction, some notable international players were not included on the list, but their respective statuses were discussed in yesterday’s post. If you haven’t read any of the prior prospect pieces here on the site, I’d highly encourage you to read the introduction, which explains all of the terms and grades used below.

Additionally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point you towards our YouTube channel, which currently holds over 600 prospect videos, including all of the names near the top of this list. Players’ individual videos are linked in the profiles below as well.

And lastly, before we get to the list, one final reminder that a player’s placement in a specific order is less important than his placement within a Future Value tier. Numerical rankings can give a false impression of separation between players who are actually quite similar, and you shouldn’t get too worked up over the precise placement of players within each tier. The ranking provides some additional information, but players in each grouping should be seen as more or less equivalent prospects.

If you have any questions about the list, I’ll be chatting today at noon here on the site (EDIT: here’s the chat transcript), and you can find me on Twitter at @kileymcd.

Alright, that’s enough stalling. Let’s get to this.

70 FV Prospects (Tier of 2)

1. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 75/80, Game Power: 55/70, Run: 50/45, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 70
Scouting Report: Bryant is the top prospect in the game for me and for a majority of sources I talked to, but it isn’t by a landslide. Bryant still has some questions, and the guy right behind him could be terrifyingly good. Bryant has either 75 or 80 raw power for scouts, but the two questions about him are 1) how much contact he’ll make/how much of his power will he get to in games, and 2) if he will play third base or right field. The thing that created both of these question is the length of his 6-foot-5, 215 lb. frame, which also creates his power, so you have to take the good with the bad — and there’s plenty of good.

2. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 30/60, Raw Power: 50/55, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 80/80, Field: 65/70, Throw: 65/65, FV: 70
Scouting Report: Buxton was the consensus top prospect in the game last year, but had a mix of freak and regular injuries that limited him to under 200 plate appearances, including the Arizona Fall League. You can mostly throw out his mediocre-for-Buxton numbers from this year, because the tools are still there, which puts in context how good he was in 2013. He hit above league average at High-A at age 20 and it was seen as a disappointment; if he can stay healthy and perform like healthy he did, he could be a dynamic All-Star talent as soon as 2015’s stretch run, but more likely in 2016.

65 FV Prospects (Tier of 6)

3. Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 40/55, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Russell was known to scouts early in his high school career, then he added a lot of weight in the summer before his draft year, causing most to project him as a third baseman. Russell didn’t like hearing this, so he dropped all the weight by his draft spring, losing some 65 or 70 raw power, but becoming a plus runner with a good chance to stick at shortstop. He went 11th overall to Oakland and surprised from day one with how advanced he was offensively, while continuing to improve defensively. He was dealt to the Cubs last year in the Jeff Samardzija deal and joins a glut of talented young hitters for the Cubs. The biggest remaining question for Russell is if he can still stick at shortstop due to a hitch in his release that limits how quickly he can unload the ball deep in the hole.

4. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
More: Full Report & Video
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 60/65, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55, FV: 65
Scouting Report: The Mexican-born Urias signed when he turned 16 in August 2012, as part of a package deal from his Mexican team, where he was the headline player, signing for $1.0 million (the Dodgers paid another $800,000 for the other players in the package). The Dodgers brass signed Urias after a famous trip to Mexico. They went to see his teammate C Julian Leon (a solid prospect in his own right), but the 15-year-old Urias sat 90-92 mph with a loose delivery, crisp curveball and good feel to pitch. Later on that same trip, the Dodgers also signed Yasiel Puig, making it one of the most notable scouting trips of all time. The reason Urias was still available what that he had a serious condition in his left eye (and still does–check out his official photo) after a tumor was removed, and some teams were worried about future blindness, though it doesn’t appear to be a problem now. Urias now sits in the low to mid-90’s and touches 97 mph with three plus pitches and advanced command, and he’s still just 18. He’ll start 2015 in Double-A and when he’s called up is simply a function of when the Dodgers want to start his arbitration clock, because we haven’t seen him fail yet, so we don’t even fully know his ceiling.

5. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 20/60, Raw Power: 60/65, Game Power: 20/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 65/65, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Correa was seen as a consensus top-three pick in the 2012 draft, but only a portion of the scouting community had him as the top prospect in the draft. The Astros saw him as the best talent and also saw an opportunity to capitalize on this perception (with Buxton seen as the consensus top prospect) to cut a below-slot deal with Correa, allowing them to sign two high schoolers — 3B Rio Ruiz (#43 on this list, since traded to Atlanta in the Evan Gattis deal) and RHP Lance McCullers (#126) — to over-slot deals later in the draft. Correa has really performed since signing and hasn’t added the weight many expected to come and force a move to third base. His 2014 season ended early with a broken fibula, but he’s been back to 100 percent for over a month and is expected to be ready to head to Double-A to start the year.

6. Corey Seager, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
More: Video
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Game Power: 40/55, Run: 45/40, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Seager is the younger brother of Mariners 3B Kyle Seager and, in the last few years, both have emerged as a couple of the best infielders in the world. Corey was identified as such earlier, as he went in the middle of the first round in 2012 out of a Charlotte-area high school, but even the Dodgers were surprised by how much and how quickly Seager excelled offensively. He hasn’t failed in any meaningful way yet, including an impressive late-season run in 2014 at Double-A at age 20. If you have to nitpick, the strikeouts are a little higher than some would like, but Seager is 6-foot-4 and that’s to be expected if a bigger guy is going to hit for some power. The Dodgers think Seager is fringy to average defensively at shortstop and will try to keep him there as long as possible, but he should slide over to third base at some point in the next year or two.

7. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
More: Full Report & Video
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 60/70, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Giolito was nationally known by scouts all the way back to when he hit 95 mph at age 15 and he dominated over the summer and winter leading up to his draft year; he was in the running to go 1-1 as one of the top prep pitchers of all-time. His draft year, however, was cut short by a sprained UCL in his elbow that led to Tommy John surgery. The stuff was all the way back this year as he dominated Low-A in his age-19 season in his first full year coming off of surgery. The Nationals were understandably conservative with pitch and innings counts in 2014, wanting to keep Giolito at the same level in a low stress environment so he wouldn’t go too deep in innings/games or be tempted to reach back for the 100 mph heater he’s thrown many times before. Giolito will start in High-A this year and the reigns will be loosened, with an expectation that he’ll get promoted to Double-A at some point in 2015, with the majors only a phone call away.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox
More: Full Report & Video
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 60/70, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Rodon was a notable prospect out of high school, but had a 3rd-4th round grade from most teams, as the fastball sat around 90, there was no projection and some teams had him off the board due to a back issue. His velocity spiked soon after he got to campus at NC State and he was sitting 92-95 mph and flashing a plus-plus slider en route to a dominating freshman season that began hype that Rodon would go #1 overall in 2014. He hit some bumps along the way and only showed flashes of his ultra premium stuff in his draft year, but it all came back after signing, due in part to his overuse in college and his reliance on his knockout slider. He’ll likely start in Triple-A, and should be up at some point this year. He has frontline starter potential, but he’s also shown flashes of a more ordinary pitcher in recent years.

60 FV Prospects (Tier of 20)

9. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 30/50, Run: 45/45+, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Swihart was seen as an amateur as an offense-first catcher that probably would have to move to a corner position once he got to the upper levels of the minors when Boston took him 26th overall out of a New Mexico high school. He’s made a lot a strides defensively since then, now projecting as s solid average defender with a plus arm and above average athleticism. Swihart’s bat is still advanced and he’s developed more game power in the past few years, with scouts expecting about 15-18 homers at maturity, with an MLB look likely coming at some point in 2015.

10. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 60
Scouting Report: J.P. Crawford is a cousin of Carl Crawford, but you don’t need to know his bloodlines to to know he’s a premium athlete. He is a plus runner with smooth hands, good range and an above average arm, giving him a very good chance to stick at shortstop long-term. Scouts are pleasantly surprised by how well Crawford has hit since turning pro and he’s now on the fast track. He turns 20 soon and will get a taste of Double-A next year, possibly to start the year, with a 2016 big league cup of coffee in range if he keeps progressing.

11. Joc Pederson, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 45/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 45/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Pederson signed for $600,000 in the 11th round of the 2010 draft from a Northern California high school; he wasn’t a consensus prospect and wasn’t seen as having much upside, but flashed average tools and good feel for the game. Something clicked in 2012 and the Dodgers sent him straight to High-A as a 20-year-old, where he became a top 100 type prospect. He raked again in Double-A in 2013, then again in 2014 in Triple-A, with only the Dodgers outfield surplus keeping him on the farm so long. Pederson has average to above average tools across the board, with only his raw power showing plus, though that’s with effort in batting practice. He can play a solid center field for now, but likely settles as a right fielder when he matures. His offensive projection will come down to what kind of hitter he wants to be–the 55 future hit/power tools is a little conservative and converts to .270s and 20 homers–but his controlled aggressive approach should lead to high OBPs either way.

12. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
More: Video
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Glasnow was drafted in the 5th round out of high school in 2011 as a low-profile pure projection bet with fringy to average stuff and a limited track record. He blew up in 2013, dominating Low-A with a fastball that hit 97 mph. He continued his progress at High-A in 2014, sitting 93-96 mph and hitting 98 mph, with a plus curveball and improving changeup. Glasnow’s long limbs create some command challenges, but his walks were more a function of deep counts due to swing-and-miss stuff than trouble throwing strikes. He’ll head to Double-A for 2015 and likely won’t get a big league look until 2016, but there’s #2 starter upside, with less risk each the day.

13. Jorge Soler, RF, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 50/60, Game Power: 55/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Run: 50/45, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Soler is a fun player to watch. He’s an explosive quick-twitch power hitter with easy plus bat speed and raw power, along with just enough huge cuts and erratic stuff to his game that you never know what you might see. The erratic aspects of his game slowly melted away this year as he matured mentally and had his first full year of reps in the system with a clean bill of health. He was great in a big league audition in 2014 and is the classic power right field profile, with some comparing Soler at the plate to Yasiel Puig.

14. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
More: Video
Hit: 40/60, Raw Power: 40/40, Game Power: 30/40, Run: 60/60, Field: 55/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Lindor had lots of late helium before the 2011 draft, with some talk he could go in the top three, but the Indians happily scooped him up with the 8th pick. He’s met or exceeded expectation since then, with plenty of contact, speed and defense to comfortably project as an everyday player with a likely 2015 big league look. The only real questions are how much power there will be and if the bat is truly impact level, but Elvis Andrus has shown that there’s still a way to get get plenty rich even without an impact-level bat.

15. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/50, Raw Power: 80/80, Game Power: 55/70, Run: 45/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Sano missed all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery but was fully ready to play this winter. He had a very high profile July 2nd signing process, complete with a controversial documentary, accusations of falsifying his age, bone scans and a surprise late entrant scooping up the player. Sano was seen as a once-in-a-generation talent with 80 raw power and the ability to stay in the infield to go with an advanced feel for hitting. That’s all still true, but Sano has added a lot of strength — he’s at least 6-foot-4, 240 lbs. now and likely will get even bigger. As such, most scouts now assume he’ll end up at first base in a few years. He’ll head to Double-A or Triple-A to start 2015 and should get a big league look late in the season if he proves everything is fully back.

16. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 60/70, Raw Power: 80/80, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 70/70, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Gallo became famous to mainstream baseball fans for his power display during the 2014 Futures Game, where he showed off legit top-of-the-scale 80 raw power. Scouts I talked to say what they see day-to-day from Gallo in batting practive is more of a 70, which is more in line with what they think he could produce in the big leagues (70 game power translates to 30-35 homers annually) since there are still some questions about his contact ability. That said, Gallo raked this year at age 20 in Double-A and has never had trouble putting up gaudy numbers, so it’s hard to say he won’t hit enough to be a solid everyday player of some kind. He’s fringy at third base but also has enormous arm strength and scouts think he’ll figure out a way to stick over there, though Adrian Beltre may force him to right field as long as he’s in Arlington.

17. Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+,Command: 45/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Norris was a well-known prospect coming out of a Tennessee high school, both for his above-average stuff dating back to his sophomore year, as well as his troublesome delivery. He slipped to the second round in 2011, but the Jays scooped him up at the 74th overall pick with a $2 million bonus. The Jays development staff a couple years to clean everything up and unlock Norris’ athleticism, but he shot from High-A to the big leagues in 2014 alongside CF Dalton Pompey (#80 on this list). Norris runs his fastball up to 96 mph with above average to plus off-speed pitches and good feel to pitch; there’s #2/3 starter upside and he likely won’t spend much more time in the minors.

18. Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/65, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Appel was a polarizing figure in the 2012 draft, when he went 8th overall and didn’t sign with the Pirates, turning down a $3.8 million offer. Scouts liked the size and stuff but thought Appel wasn’t quite athletic enough to make his delivery work and lacked the aggressiveness and killer instinct to be a frontline arm. Appel answered these questions in 2013, with an improved approach and the Astros took the Houston native #1 overall. He had some trouble in 2014 with his velocity disappearing then coming back, and he still isn’t all the way back to his peak form as a senior at Stanford. The pitch grades above are a notch higher than what he consistently showed last year, but there’s no physical reason to think he can’t regain that form and become a #2 starter.

19. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Syndergaard was just starting to grow into his 6-foot-6, 240 lb. frame when the Blue Jays took him in the 2010 sandwich round as a late pop-up arm off many teams’ radars, due to a velocity spike before the draft. He has shot through the minors, reaching Triple-A by 21 while growing a few inches, putting on lots of strength, developing his command and having his stuff explode. He was dealt in a package with Travis d’Arnaud from Toronto in the R.A. Dickey trade in December of 2012. He now sits 93-97 with heavy life and hits 98 mph with a curveball that is mostly above average, but still varies outing to outing. Syndergaard also has been more open to using his changeup than Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler at the same stage, with the pitch flashing above average pretty consistently already. Syndergaard’s weakness is a lack of a consistent plus secondary pitch, but he does everything well and will get a big league look in 2015 with a good chance to reach his mid-rotation potential.

20. Alex Jackson, RF, Seattle Mariners
More: Video
Hit: 20/60, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 45/45, Field: 45/50, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Jackson was known as a sophomore in high school as he showed and advanced feel to hit, big raw power and a huge arm behind the plate. He held that lofty perch until his draft year, as a legitimate contender to go #1 overall, but ultimately slipped to the Mariners at 6th overall. Jackson has easy plus raw power and arm strength, but the separator here is his advanced feel to hit to all fields and get to his power in games. Like Wil Myers and Bryce Harper before him and Kyle Schwarber (#21 on this list) from his draft class, Jackson’s bat is too advanced to wait on his glove to develop behind the plate, so the Mariners will just stick him in right field and let him hit his way to the big leagues.

21. Kyle Schwarber, LF, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 70/70, Game Power: 40/60, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 50/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: When I first saw Schwarber last summer on a loaded college Team USA, I thought the middle linebacker-looking dude wasn’t a good bet to stick at catcher, but he was surprisingly nimble for his size with enough ability to at least consider it. I wrote that he was good enough back there to allow him to play there in the minors and develop him as a potential backup that plays once or twice a week but is a primary at left field or first base. The Cubs took him #4 overall out of Indiana and agree with my defensive suggestion; they’ll develop him as a catcher this year, but most assume his bat will be ready before his glove, meaning he’ll be a part-time catcher at best. There’s legit 30 homer power and surprising feel to hit with a realistic chance for a big league look in late 2016.

22. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/65, Curveball: 55/60, Cutter: 60/70, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Bundy was a known prospect as a sophomore in high school, if not earlier, and the Orioles knew about him early; they signed his older brother Bobby in 2008 before drafting Dylan in 2011. It’s expected his borderline insane usage in high school is what led to his June 2013 Tommy John surgery after soreness in March of that year. The linked video is pre-surgery when Bundy-mania was at it’s height: he sat 95-99 mph with an 80 cutter, plus curveball and solid average changeup. In 41.1 innings last year at the A-Ball levels, Bundy was mostly 90-93, hitting 94 mph with the command and curveball not close to what they once were. Later in the summer, he hit 96 mph and the curve and command were getting there, but he was shut down with an oblique problem, unrelated to his arm. He is expected to have stuff close to his peak this year, but you can see from the above grades I’ve hedged a bit until we actually see it. This year is his last option, so he has to stick on the big league roster in 2016 or be exposed to waivers, which he would not clear.

23. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Boston Red Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 45/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Rodriguez was acquired from the Orioles at the trade deadline for lefty reliever Andrew Miller, with lots of rumors suggested they chose Rodriguez over a multi-player offer from Detroit headlined by #29 on this list, RHP Jake Thompson. Rodriguez went from a solid lefty prospect that projected as a #4 type starter to a potential frontline guy a couple weeks before the trade when his velocity ticked up to sitting 93-96 mph, which also sharpened his slider. The question is if this new stuff is here to stay, but even if it isn’t, Rodriguez could be a league average or better starter by 2016.

24. Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Berrios may not be big at 6-foot-0/190 pounds, but scouts rave about his athleticism, makeup and work ethic. His velocity has slowly improved since high school in Puerto Rico and now sits at 93-96, hitting 98 mph. There isn’t a ton of plane or life to the pitch, but his clean arm action and deceptively easy delivery helps the heater sneak up on hitters. Berrios calls his breaking pitches a slow and fast curveball, but the fast one plays like a slider and both are above average; scouts will call one or the other plus depending on the day, but the slower curve gets the better grade more often. His changeup is above average and may be plus one day, helping to keep hitters off his fastball. One scout compared him to Javier Vazquez and he should get a big league look at some point in 2015.

25. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Stephenson surprisingly slipped to the end of the 1st round out of high school and has done what most scouts thought he would, turning a crazy loose arm into premium stuff in short order. This year was a struggle for Stephenson as he hadn’t really failed before, but at age-21 as more of a thrower than pitcher in Double-A, even plus stuff and a heater that hits 100 mph wouldn’t allow him to carve hitters up as he was accustomed. Stephenson will need to make that adjustment next season, but there are more than enough ingredients here for a mid-rotation starter, with a decent chance for even more. One scout compared Stephenson’s developmental path and possible eventual outcome to Homer Bailey. The command isn’t really the issue, so much as it is usage of his pitches, getting into good counts and challenging hitters in the right way, not always with a flat upper-90?s fastball up in the zone.

26. Luis Severino, RHP, New York Yankees
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 65/70, Slider: 40/50+, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Severino wasn’t a high profile signing, but stood out to me in instructs the fall after his 2012 stint in the Dominican Summer League. He sat 92-94 mph in both outings I saw and threw a solid average slider, but didn’t work in a changeup and his delivery/command needed work. Severino was mostly 91-95 mph in 2013 and early in 2014, then got stronger as the year went on, flashing 94-97 mph heat at times later in the year and sustaining it for innings. Severino took quickly to using a changeup regularly after arriving in America, developing it as a plus pitch in about a year of using it, though it can sometimes play to 55 on certain days, as he’s still developing consistent control of his off-speed offerings. His slider is still a third pitch, but it flashes 55 at times. He’s quickly improved and developed starter traits, but on certain days the stuff, command and delivery may all look more like a reliever.

27. Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Gonzalez went from a 3rd-4th round prospect entering his draft year at Oral Roberts to a legit 1st rounder by mid-season, with some buzz he could sneak into the top 10 on a discounted deal; he went 23rd. His heavy sinker has led to solid performances in the minors thus far, and his stuff has ticked up a notch this season. Gonzalez now sits 92-95, hitting 97 mph often and can spot and manipulate the pitch to sink, run or cut it at 94 mph deep into starts. His plus mid-80’s slider is still the primary weapon and his changeup and fourth option curveball both flash average to slightly above at times. Gonzalez’s command isn’t bad and should be average as well, giving Gonzalez #3 starter upside, but scouts complain that with his firm changeup, almost every pitch he throws is over 85 mph and often in the strike zone.

28. Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Gray created tons of buzz midway through the 2013 spring with Oklahoma, coming from out of nowhere to hit 100 mph often, with a plus slider and usable changeup. He was in the mix for the #1 overall pick but ended up going 3rd overall to Colorado. Since signing, Gray’s velocity has been down some, mostly sitting 91-94 and hitting 95 mph, but Rockies sources say this is intentional and he’s working on some things (they already smoothed out his delivery), which scouts assumed after Gray hit 98 mph in a short Texas League All-Star Game appearance. I think he’ll settle at 92-94 with more movement and command, with the slider still plus and the changeup having it’s moments. Scouts are a little concerned that Gray is a below average athlete and the command still isn’t quite there yet, but it’s hard to walk away from this stuff.

55 FV Prospects (Tier of 51)

29. Jake Thompson, RHP, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Thompson slipped to the 2nd round out of high school because his stuff was mostly average, but would tick up at times. That was the book on him earlier this year at High-A Lakeland for Detroit, when he’d start games at 90-92, hitting 93-95 at times and then dip to 88-91 later in the game with a solid average three-pitch mix. In the Florida State League All-Star Game, Thompson sat 93-96 in a one-inning appearance and his slider was at least a 60, though it was a higher effort delivery he didn’t use when starting. Thompson was dealt to the Rangers mid-season in the Joakim Soria trade and scouts that saw him in the Texas League reported he was 92-96 mph with a 60 slider that is sometimes a 70 in short stints. There’s an average change and impact stuff as a starter, but there’s also some effort to the delivery, so the fit may be in the bullpen; he’ll head to Double-A and could be a bullpen option if needed late in the year.

30. Austin Meadows, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
More: Video
Hit: 20/60, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50+, Run: 60/50+, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 45/45, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Meadows was compared to his friend and fellow 2013 draft Atlanta-area prep hitter Clint Frazier often; scouts were still split over which one they preferred at draft time. After a full season, but Meadows has the clear edge, but it’s still very early. Meadows missed a lot of the season with a hamstring injury, but showed the sweet lefty swing and above average tools that got him drafted 9th overall. Meadows is a big, football-strong type athlete at 6-foot-3/200 and appears to have already lost a step from high school, usually running in the 55 range, with most assuming he’ll settle closer to an average runner. Since his arm is below average, this would shift him to left field and put more pressure on his bat, which is advanced, but he’s still learning to integrate his raw power into his game swing. Jay Bruce is a comparison that’s come up often for Meadows and power-hitting corner outfield may be where this ends up in a few years.

31. David Dahl, CF, Colorado Rockies
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Hit: 20/60, Game Power: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Dahl’s stock dipped in 2012 and 2013 after going 10th overall out of an Alabama high school due to some maturity issues that caused the Rockies to issue a suspension and limit his exposure to full-season ball until this season. This year, Dahl cruised through Low-A as expected and he may now be on the fast track. Scouts never really doubted Dahl’s ability to hit and one said he almost put a 70 on his bat after seeing him this year; that same scout put a 50 on the future game power despite a line drive approach in games. It may take a few years but advanced, talented hitters with a natural opposite field stroke will often will outhit their raw power at maturity (even with a line drive approach) due to how much hard contact they make. The offensive upside combined with plus speed and a center field profile give Dahl the upside to be a star, but some scouts would like to see more than one year in full-season leagues before they go all-in.

32. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/65, Cutter: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Bradley went from premium quarterback/pitching prospect in high school at age 17 to legitimately in play for the #1 overall pick at age 18 to top prospect immediately after signing, to possibly being in the big league rotation at age 21. In retrospect, some scouts think he was pressing in 2014 Spring Training, trying to do too much to impress the big league staff to break camp with the big league club. Bradley went back to Triple-A and by late April, he was on the shelf with an elbow strain. He returned from the DL in Double-A, starting 12 games and heading to the Arizona Fall League, but not quite looking like the same potential frontline starter from previous years. Bradley added a cutter in the AFL that flashed plus, though his changeup and curveball were a notch lower than the grades above and there’s still concerns that he doesn’t have enough feel to stick as a starter, though he should get a big league look in 2015.

33. Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox
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Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Owens was a projection lefty starter out of high school with advanced feel to pitch and a good changeup; he’s continued to improve and still has plenty of projection to go. Owens sits 90-92 with good deception, extension, command and movement, hitting as high as 95 mph at times. His curveball is solid-average and his plus changeup also draws grades as high as 70 from some scouts. Owens is still a long, lanky type arm that sometimes has trouble corralling his limbs to repeat his delivery and should also throw a tick or two harder down the line. The stuff doesn’t blow you away, but Owens know how to use it and he should get a big league look in 2015.

34. Ozhaino Albies, SS, Atlanta Braves
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 30/40, Game Power: 20/35, Run: 65/65, Field: 50/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Albies home country Curacao has produced a great recent group of quick-twitch infielders with Andrelton Simmons, Jonathan Schoop and Jurickson Profar, while nearby Aruba has recently produced Xander Bogaerts. Albies is next in line, with some scouts comparing him to a smaller Francisco Lindor or Rafael Furcal with less arm strength. He’s 5-foot-9/150, just turned 18 and has only played one year of short-season ball, but scouts are already tossing 60’s on his hit tool, along with 60 or more on his speed, glove and arm. Feel free to scroll around this list and try to find another example of these kinds of tools; that and universally positive reports are why I’m so bullish on this kid. Power isn’t a big part of game and likely will never be, but he does everything else so well at such a young age, that no one seems to care. He has excellent feel for the strike zone and the bat head, plenty of bat speed, knowledge of when to use his gap power and when to keep the ball on the ground; his full-season debut in 2015 is arguably the most anticipated in baseball.

35. Manuel Margot, CF, Boston Red Sox
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 65/65, Field: 60/65, Throw: 50/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Margot was another recent, premium July 2nd signee for the Red Sox that has gone swimmingly so far, along with Devers below. Margot has game-changing easy plus speed and defense to go with surprising raw power for his size and an advanced bat. Margot has above average bat speed and bat control to go with a simple, line-drive, gap-to-gap approach that takes advantage of his speed with lots of doubles and triples. Margot wore down a bit down the stretch this year and his raw power and arm strength were a tick lower for some scouts, but his performance speaks for itself and he may get a taste of Double-A in 2015 at age 20.

36. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
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Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Harvey is the son of former big league reliever Bryan Harvey and wasn’t well known until his draft spring as he opted to play Legion ball instead of hitting the showcase circuit. He went from sitting around 90 with a skinny, lanky frame to hitting the mid-to-upper-90?s in his draft spring, attracting first round attention. Harvey’s 90-93 mph fastball that had hit 96 mph in high school was suddenly sitting 93-97 mph in the summer after he signed, when most prep pitchers are battling sore arms. Expectation adjusted upward and Harvey delivered this year in his full-season debut, with ground balls and strikeouts in bunches. Some elbow soreness sent him to the DL in July and Baltimore shut him down as he’d already reached his innings limit for the season. Scouts are a little wary of a young pitcher with limited innings getting shut down with elbow soreness, so they’d like to see him throw a couple solid starts before totally buying back in, but there’s frontline potential here.

37. Sean Manaea, LHP, Kansas City Royals
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Manaea was a largely unknown power lefty with little else to offer as a sophomore at Indiana State, then he blew up that summer on the Cape, sitting 91-95 and hitting 97 mph with life and deception. He was a projected top 5 pick before a terrible spring, caused by bad weather, inconsistent mechanics and bothersome arm soreness to go with a more serious hip injury. The Royals took the late-rising Hunter Dozier with their top pick, signing him to an underslot deal to save money so they could take Manaea, hoping he’d last to their pick at 34 due to his injuries and price tag, which he did. Kansas City signed Manaea for $3.55 million (over a million more than Dozier) and he sat out the rest of the 2013 season, making his pro debut in 2014 at High at age 22. Manaea was back to his old self in carving up the league and is flashing the #2/3 starter upside of his breakout Cape campaign.

38. Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
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Hit: 40/50, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 50/60, Run: 30/30, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Franco’s breakout was in 2013, between High-A and Double-A, when he went from a high contact hitter with some raw power to a monster hitting over .300 with 30 homers between two levels. Franco is limited physically by his slow feet and will never be more than fringy at third base, but has the plus arm and good hands to figure out a way to make it work over there. The ultimate fit is likely first base, but that’s years away and he’ll get an extended big league look in 2015, with his aggressive offensive approach the big remaining question to answer.

39. Jesse Winker, LF, Cincinnati Reds
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Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 45/40, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Winker was a very well-known prospect out of high school, playing on arguably the best travel team in the country and playing on a loaded Orlando-area high school team that included first rounders Walker Weickel and Nick Gordon. Winker has progressed well in pro ball, with some scouts suggesting he may have gotten a tick faster since signing, but the carrying tool here is the bat and it has really shined so far. While the raw power isn’t huge, he should be able to produce 20 bombs at maturity and Winker’s feel to hit is very advanced as his feel for the strike zone. Some scout suggest first base will be his eventual home, but also mention names like Paul O’Neill, John Olerud and Tino Martinez as potential comps.

40. Kevin Plawecki, C, New York Mets
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Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 30/45, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 50/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Plawecki doesn’t have huge tools and didn’t come from a baseball hotbed, playing high school in Indiana and college at Purdue, but he has lots of feel for the game to make the most of what he does have. This feel was evident as early as college, which got Plawecki taken 35th overall by the Mets, but his defense and contact abilities have held up more in pro ball than rival scouts expected. Plawecki is an offensive catcher, with hit over power due to his contact leaning with a short load, direct path and simple approach. Scouts hang 55 or 60 grades on his bat and he shot through the system in part because he doesn’t strike out and does a good job making adjustments level-to-level. He doesn’t have a big arm, but it’s enough to catch with a good shot for a big league look in 2015, alongside Travis d’Arnaud.

41. Matt Wisler, RHP, San Diego Padres
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 45/45+, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: To pitch at the Padres pre-draft workout in San Diego in 2011, Wisler flew to the west coast from Ohio and pitched the day after he threw in a high school playoff game, hitting 91 mph at PETCO Park. He’s shown the intangibles from day one, but came to camp in 2013 looking like a completely different pitcher. Wisler now works 91-94, touching 95 mph with sink and commands the pitch to both sides of the plate. His two-plane slider is plus, his changeup is above average at times and he also works in a fringy curveball. Scouts rave about his makeup and strike throwing abilities, though his command isn’t quite big league ready, as he ran into trouble in the hitter-friendly PCL leaving the ball up the zone. Some scouts think his build is too slight and that he won’t be able to hold up for 200 innings, with a couple suggesting he may end up as a late-inning reliever. The consensus is that he should be able to handle 180 innings as a third or fourth starter and he’ll get a big league look in 2015, though the Padres new starting pitching depth may delay that until late in the season.

42. Eddie Butler, RHP, Colorado Rockies
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 45/50, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Butler’s stuff took a step forward since being drafted in the sandwich round in 2012 out of Radford, with his velocity settling a tick or two higher (93-95, touching 97 mph consistently) and his off-speed stuff jumping a notch as well. The big question scouts have about Butler is his durability. He’s had a lot of minor dings and there’s doubt he can hold up for 200 innings, though everything else is there for him to be a starter. If he has to move to the bullpen he could be a closer, with a fastball that’s been up to 99 mph and a knockout changeup, but Colorado will give him every chance to prove he can stay in the rotation. The slider has been a 55 in the past but scouts have said it’s only been average this year.

43. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Atlanta Braves
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50+, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Ruiz signed with the Astros for an over slot $1.85 million with the money they saved going under slot on SS Carlos Correa as the #1 overall pick in 2012. Ruiz slipped to the 4th round after being in the top 50 pick discussion early in the spring, due to a blood clot in his neck that prematurely ended his season. He was also a standout quarterback in high school, which shows with his above average arm strength, but the 6-foot-2/215 lefty hitter isn’t a traditionally great athlete. He was acquired earlier this month by Atlanta in the Evan Gattis deal. Ruiz is a below average runner with fringy range that limits his defensive upside, though it looks right now like he’ll be able to stay at the hot corner, with the above average raw power to profile. The carrying tool is the bat and Ruiz took a step forward in 2014, but some scouts would like to see him do it outside of the Cal League before throwing a 60 on his hit tool. With a solid year for Atlanta in Double-A in 2015, he’ll be on the fast track for a big league look and is already their third baseman of the future.

44. Jose Peraza, 2B, Atlanta Braves
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Hit: 30/50, Raw Power: 40/40, Game Power: 20/35, Run: 70/70, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 50/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Peraza is a plus-plus runner with game-changing speed and he knows how to use it on the bases, stealing 60 and 64 bases in his last two seasons. He started as a shortstop, was converted to second base full-time in 2014 and handled it well; his average arm isn’t enough for that throw in the hole from shortstop, but he’s good enough for emergency duty at short. Peraza doesn’t have much power, but it isn’t a big part of his game, likely hitting 5-12 homers depending on how he matures as a hitter. He doesn’t see many pitches and aggressively attack the first hittable pitch he sees, using his speed by keeping the ball on the ground and leading to low walk and strikeout rates, but that could cause problems against top big league arms. He’ll start 2015 in Triple-A after short stops in Double-A and High-A last year, and a good chance he’s entrenched in the big league lineup at some point in 2016.

45. Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox
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Hit: 30/50+, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 65/65, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Anderson was almost completely unknown entering his draft year, as he went undrafted in 2012 at the same junior college where he went in the 1st round in 2013. He came out late in spring 2012 after basketball season ended and was often hidden in left field, so it wasn’t easy for scouts to pick up on the raw tools at a rural junior college game with their pref lists mostly set. Anderson is the loose athlete every scout is looking for, with easy plus speed, a plus arm and, despite some issues he’s working on with fundamentals and footwork, he has the tools to stick at shortstop. He has plus bat speed, above average bat control and surprising pop, flashing average raw power. Anderson’s feel to hit can sometimes get in his way: he isn’t as patient at the plate as he should be, with his ability to square up most pitches he’s facing now holding back his long-term interests. That said, he’s still hasn’t played much high level baseball, he’s already in Double-A at age 21 and the talent is ridiculous.

46. Nomar Mazara, RF, Texas Rangers
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Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 50/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Mazara’s all-time record-smashing $4.95 million bonus in the last year before international bonus pools opened some eyes, both for the amount and the player. Some pointed to a hitchy swing with timing issues and that was still a concern after last year’s just okay full-season debut at age 18, where Mazara hit .236 with 131 Ks in Low-A. This year, the 19-year-old Mazara made the necessary adjustments, getting his foot down faster which unlocked his bat speed and strength while giving him more time to make a decision on the pitch. He jumped all the way to Double-A, where he’ll start this year and it now on the fast track with a classic power/power right field profile.

47. Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 55/65, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Shipley started pitching as a sophomore at Nevada, then went in the middle of the 1st round after his junior year, highlighting how quickly he went from advanced athlete without a position to premium pitching prospect. He’s a ridiculous athlete that scouts tend to believe can do anything in part because of how quickly he’s taken to pitching. Shipley flashed three plus pitches after signing, especially notable because his curveball was rarely used in college and was the reason he lasted all the way to the 15th pick. At his best, Shipley sits 92-95 and touches 98 mph, though his fastball has average at best movement and tends to straighten out late in starts when he’s fatigued. His curveball flashes plus and his changeup is a 65 pitch for some scouts. Shipley’s command still comes and goes, but he’s such a good athlete that scouts assume that will come around to average. He’s still working to get his arm conditioned to last late into games and Shipley’s stuff would, at times, play down a notch or two this season from the peak stuff noted in the future pitch grades above. He’ll spend 2015 in the upper minors and should get a real big league chance in 2016.

48. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Game Power: 20/55, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Devers has an unusual frame for a top July 2nd prospect, as that market is all about potential and, typically, the most projectable, long, lean frames. Devers stood out from a young age due to his advanced approach, precocious raw power and loose, handsy, all-fields left-handed swing. He’s dropped some bad weight since his amateur days and is still adding some strength and maturing. I often talk about how scouts and analysts agree that opposite field game power at a young age is one of the best indicators of a prospect that has a good chance to become an elite big league bat; Devers has all the makings.

49. Hunter Renfroe, RF, San Diego Padres
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Hit: 30/50+, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 30/60, Run: 55/55, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Renfroe had a Paul Bunyan type backstory but came from relative obscurity with limited playing time as an underclassman at Mississippi State; he was a catcher, with pop times in the 1.7s, or easily plus plus, but little feel to catch and he was also an arm strength reliever that sat 93-96 and hit 98 mph, but with little command. He broke out in the summer after his sophomore year in the largely unscouted Cal Ripken League, then demolished the SEC as a junior en route to going in the middle of the first round. He has easy plus raw power and one Padres official compared his quick-twitch, late-blooming plus bat speed/plus power profile to Nelson Cruz. One big difference is that Renfroe will turn in plus run times to first base on close plays, to go with his plus arm in right field; he occasionally plays center field in the minors and can fill in there if needed in the majors. Some scouts think he’s too aggressive at the plate and see shades of Jeff Francoeur, but I think there’s a solid everyday player here with a chance for a star.

50. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
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Fastball: 55/55, Slider: 55/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Heaney was heralded in his draft year out of Oklahoma State as an advanced pitchability lefty with above average stuff that could turn into a #3/4 starter in short order and that’s almost exactly what’s happened. He already got a big league look in 2014 with Miami before being traded to the Dodgers in the Dee Gordon trade, then flipped to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. His fastball and slider will both flash 60 in his best outings, but Heaney relies more on his feel to pitch than his raw stuff to get strikeouts and grounders. He should be up at some point in 2015 depending on the big league need.

51. Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 45/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Nola was a smaller righty that threw 85-88 mph from a low slot with some feel in high school, then he exploded onto the scene at LSU, throwing 91-94 mph as a sophomore and hitting 96 mph pretty often in his draft year. Nola creates above average life on his fastball and changeup with the spin he puts on the ball from the low slot. One of the concerns is that his low 3/4 slinging slot allows left-handed hitters seeing the ball too clearly, but Nola’s plus changeup does the heavy lifting here; his above average command and aggressive approach also help keep hitters off balance. He’s never been hurt before despite an unusual delivery and while his stuff was a tick worse after signing, that’s expected with pitchers throwing the longest year of their young careers. Nola will head to Double-A for 2015 and should get a big league look at some point if he has a strong season.

52. Steven Souza, RF, Tampa Bay Rays
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Hit: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: It would seem easy to like a guy with everyday tools that also really performs. Some scouts are all-in on Souza, but most are at least a little dubious that he’ll be able to keep it up in the majors, due to his approach, size and career path. After a slow start to his career as a 3rd round pick in 2007 out of high school (which included a drug suspension in 2010), Souza started crushing everything he faced in 2012 at age-23 in High-A. He followed that with huge years in 2013 at age-24 in Double-A and in 2014 at age-25 in Triple-A. All three of those seasons are two years old for the target age for a prospect to be at each level, so some scouts don’t even totally buy into the performance. Souza is a late bloomer, but he was also the key to the Wil Myers trade for Tampa Bay and he’ll likely be an Opening Day Starter that may post a couple WAR in 2015 and also may outperform Myers right after the deal. These things are all on the table now, but seemed completely absurd to consider a year or two ago, giving you a sense of how much Souza’s stock has risen in that time.

53. Jorge Alfaro, C, Texas Rangers
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Hit: 20/45, Game Power: 45/55, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 45/45+, Field: 40/50+, Throw: 70/70, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Alfaro’s easy plus raw power may never fully play at the big league level, but since he can stick behind the plate, it won’t have to. Alfaro has the tools to be an above average defender and his plus-plus arm is a huge weapon, but he still needs some work on the finer points of catching, as his arm strength allows him to get away with stuff in the minors that he won’t be able to do in the majors. Like catchers below like O’Conner, Betancourt and Hedges, Alfaro has some trouble with his approach and reaching his offensive upside, but his raw tools are the best of that bunch and he’ll head to Double-A to start 2015 as Texas’ catcher of the future.

54. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Newcomb was the Hunter Dozier of the 2014 draft, a player that clubs liked higher than the media consensus had them, partly because teams weren’t sure if they were the only team that had him so high, so they kept it secret. Sources have indicated that the Mariners probably would’ve taken Newcomb at the 6th pick if Alex Jackson wasn’t there and there were a couple more spots where he was the backup choice before the Angels stopped the slide at 15th overall. The things scouts like so much about Newcomb are easy to see: he’s huge (6-foot-5/240), athletic, left-handed, has a fresh arm (New England multi-sport kid), flashed three plus pitches (sits 91-94, hits 97 mph) and shows surprising pitchability considering his background. His off-speed stuff plays more to a 55 on a consistent basis, but the raw elements are here for an ace if Newcomb can make all the necessary adjustments and stay healthy.

55. D.J. Peterson, 1B, Seattle Mariners
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Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 40/60, Run: 45/40, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Peterson emerged in his draft year at New Meciso as a guy that scouts saw both advanced hit-ability and raw power, with some comparing him to Billy Butler and Jeff Bagwell for an unexpectedly loose swing in a stout frame. Peterson plays third base now and has the hands and arms to hang around there for awhile, but every scout I’ve talked to sees him moving over to first base at some point in the next few years. He’ll be 23 next year and should perform in Double-A and/or Triple-A, setting the stage for a late-season 2015 big league look with a chance to stick in 2016 as a middle of the order masher.

56. Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Kansas City Royals
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Finnegan was one of the tougher evaluations in this past June’s draft class. The TCU ace appeared to be an anomaly: He had a high effort delivery from a small frame (5-foot-11/185) but he also had advanced command and no injury history. Finnegan was up to 98 mph last summer and regularly up to 96 mph this spring, drawing Scott Kazmir and Billy Wagner comparisons from scouts. Then, he missed multiple starts down the stretch with a stiff shoulder that threw the whole evaluation into question. Finnegan looked fine in abbreviated looks before the draft and went 17th overall to the Royals, whereas he had top 10 rumors around him before the shoulder tightness. It’s still not clear if he’s a mid-rotation starter or closer long-term, but we saw in September that his stuff will play wherever you put it.

57. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Washington Nationals
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Fastball: 65/75, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Lopez signed with no fanfare, getting a $17,000 bonus at age 18 near the end of the 2012 signing period. He sat in the upper 80?s at the time, then his velo steadily climbed a tick each month until he hit the mid-90?s in 2013. He only pitched a handful of innings in 2013 due to a sore arm, which is somewhat expected for a teenager whose climbing velocity is putting new stresses on his arm. Lopez got back on the mound in 2014 and took off, sitting 93-97 and hitting 100 mph on many occasions. He adds and subtracts from his fastball, showing surprising feel for a young power arm and his changeup and command both flash average to slightly above potential because of his advanced body control and feel for his delivery. This new velo was the result of the player development staff helping Lopez tweak his delivery before 2014, making him more direct to the plate and more downhill to leverage the ball better and cut out the east/west movement in his delivery. With the newness of his big stuff, we still don’t know what Lopez’s upside is, so his 2015 will be watched closely by teams hoping the Nats make him available in trade talks.

58. Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 70/70, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 50/45, Field: 50/50, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Judge generated a lot of buzz after a summer on the Cape when the 6-foot-7/250 athletic monster showed huge power, but inconsistent game performances. That continued in the spring at Fresno State, when he only tapped into his plus plus raw power at times, often option to shorten up and hit singles or struggling versus advanced pitchers, which is why he slid to the end of the first round. Multiple clubs I talked to didn’t have him anywhere close to the first round and some area scouts turned him in as a middle round pick. He blew away those expectations in his pro debut this year, hitting 21 homers and making plenty of contact. He’ll be 23 in Double-A next year and that will give us a better idea of if he’s a solid everyday guy or a potential star, but there’s clearly more here than people were expecting.

59. Aaron Blair, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Blair has slowly improved since being drafted last June that some in the organization have him as the #1 prospect in the system. He isn’t as flashy as Bradley and Shipley, but Blair has three pitches that all have been plus at times for scouts and are all regularly above average. One scout compared Blair’s ability to get heavy life on pitches to Roy Halladay, in part due to how big Blair’s hands are, while another scout compared him to John Lackey or Lance Lynn, a big and unspectacular but steady #3/4 starter that outperforms more heralded talents. Blair sits 90-94 and has been up to 96 mph with improved arm speed this season. He throws a lot of strikes and the heavy life on his fastball helps induce weak contact rather than a ton of strikeouts. Blair’s curveball was the concern as an amateur and early in his pro career, but now consistently shows average with some grading it as high as plus at times, while hi changeup has been above average all along. He’ll likely get a big league look at some point in 2015.

60. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 45/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Rosario got the biggest international bonus in club history two years ago and has done nothing but impress since then. Scouts have called him special and the most athletic player in the Mets system. He has the live body, quick hands, instincts and ability to adjust to challenges along with the broad shoulders to project more strength to come. Rosario skipped the DSL and adjusted as older competition came at him; this is the high ceiling guy with feel for the game that you can dream on. Rosario has feel to stay inside the ball and works the middle of the field in games, with a surprising amount of homers to right-center field already. Scouts have mentioned Addison Russell, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Beltre as possible comps and each has some things in common with Rosario, but his full-season debut will tell us more about the kind of player he’s becoming.

61. Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals
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Hit: 20/45, Raw Power: 45/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 60/60, Field: 55/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: As you may guess, Raul (who went by his middle name Adalberto when he signed) is the son of former Dodger RF Raul Mondesi, who is now the mayor of his hometown in the Dominican Republic. The Royals took some flack for giving him $2 million in the 2011 July 2nd period, but he improved greatly after signing and has made that investment look shrewd. There aren’t questions about Mondesi’s speed, defense, arm strength or raw power, but the aggressive way the Royals have promoted him have raised questions about his bat. He played all of last season in High-A at age 18/19, the same age as an American high school senior, so you can imagine why he struggled with the bat. It’s hard to see impact, even from a good swing with bat speed, when the hitter is overmatched, so it’s difficult to get really excited about Mondesi until he isn’t being thrown in the deep end of the pool developmentally, but it’s hard to ignore his ability.

62. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Iglesias was exclusively a reliever in Cuba and would get into the mid-90?s at times with an above average slider, with most teams thinking that was a preview of his eventual big league fit. The Reds see these types of talents as an opportunity to develop those talents in a rotation (Nick Howard and Michael Lorenzen below are recent domestic examples) and with the successful Aroldis Chapman contract behind, took another gamble of a talented Cuban reliever. Iglesias jumped from the fringes off this list into the middle of it with electric appearances in the Arizona Fall League and instructs. He sat 91-95 and hit 97 mph in these outings, with his stuff varying a bit in each outing. Iglesias is about to turn 25 and there’s some east/west, inconsistency and effort to his delivery, but scouts see the elements of average command in the tank. Iglesias has a four pitch mix and his slider will flash plus every now and then, so there’s mid-rotation upside. He’ll either go to Triple-A and join a deep staff or break with the big league club in the bullpen; it sounds right now like the big league bullpen is his likely starting point but, like with Chapman, the rotation will be tried once the innings get built up.

63. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/55, Game Power: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 45/45, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Some teams were skeptical before the draft of McMahon’s ability to corral his long limbs to make enough contact long-term, but some scouts I talked to were all-in after an impressive full-season debut. One scout argued McMahon could be the Rockies #1 prospect right now and with Gray/Butler possibly graduating next year and McMahon heading to the hitter-friendly Cal League in 2015, that may happen next year. He strikes out more than you’d like to see, but McMahon is just 19 and was also a star quarterback in high school (another example of a Rockies draft pick with that on his resume), so there’s still a need for reps. McMahon projects for plus raw power and, while he isn’t there right now, most believe with some work he will be able to stick at third base long-term.

64. C.J. Edwards, RHP, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Edwards was a near unknown pitcher as an amateur; you don’t see many pitchers this high on prospect lists that signed for $50,000 out of high school in the 48th round. The Cubs smartly grabbed him from Texas in the Matt Garza trade late in his breakout season in 2013. He’s still a rail-thin righty that some think will never add the necessary bulk to throw 200 innings in the big leagues, but the stuff and command projects for the middle of the rotation. He’ll head back to Double-A to begin 2015 but could be a big league rotation option in 2016.

65. Steven Matz, LHP, New York Mets
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 40/50, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Matz was a high school draft out of New York state that was a raw talent to begin with, but he then lost about two years of development time at the beginning of his career, due to a Tommy John surgery and some complications. He did well in Low-A last year, then took a big step forward this year over High-A and Double-A, putting him in conversation of the Mets deep upper levels of pitching. Matz works 91-95 and hits 96 mph with an above average to plus changeup and a curveball that’s improved dramatically to now flash average to slightly above. He’s an excellent athlete that commands his fastball well and his maturity and ability to improve has impressed the Mets. There’s a #3 starter in here if it all comes together, but the curveball and command of his off-speed is still inconsistent, not to mention his age and injury history give scouts some pause.

66. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
More: Video
Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Taillon was one of the more hyped high school pitchers in recent memory, with both the Pirates and Orioles ranking him first on their draft boards, ahead of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. He flashed the same power stuff in pro ball as he did in high school, with an explosive mid-90’s fastball and a curveball that was a 70 at times, though his changeup and command lagged behind. There wasn’t really a question if Taillon could stick as a starter, he just had trouble with some finer points of pitching and consistency. Then, his elbow popped and he got Tommy John surgery last year, knocking out his entire 2014 season. He’ll return in the middle of the season in the upper levels and should be a big league option in 2016, assuming everything comes back as expected.

67. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Video
Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Hoffman was a known power arm for the 2014 draft at East Carolina, then he broke out in the summer before the draft on the Cape (see linked video), flashing an 80 fastball and 65 or 70 curveball from an athletic delivery, projectable frame and shockingly good feel to pitch given the power stuff. He didn’t look the same in the spring, as just as he was making adjustments to his delivery to regain form, his elbow popped and he won’t return until until mid-season in 2015. Even with the surgery taking Hoffman out of #1 overall pick contention, the Jays thought he wouldn’t get out of the top 5, so they were pleased to land him with the 9th overall pick. He drew comparisons to Adam Wainwright and Justin Verlander on the Cape, so if he regains that form, he could shoot to the top of this list in short order.

68. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: The 6-foot-4/185 lefty was half of what may have been the best 1-2 punch in high school baseball history, with Nationals top prospect RHP Lucas Giolito at Harvard Westlake High School in 2012. Unfortunately, Giolito’s senior season ended prematurely with soreness that led to Tommy John surgery and Fried himself also had the surgery performed on him this past August; the Braves acquired him from San Diego this winter as the headliner in the Justin Upton deal. He’s due back on the mound sometime around fall instructional league in 2015. Even in those few starts before his elbow popped in 2014, Fried’s stuff was still pretty close to his peak stuff: 90-93, hitting 96 mph with a plus curveball and improving above average changeup. His stuff will vary start to start and his changeup flashes 60 for some scouts, but not often and never when at the same time as his curveball. Fried’s clean mechanics aren’t a concern and he has lots of projection to his frame, so these future grades could be conservative; the upside is huge, with one scout mentioning Cole Hamels, but it’s still very early.

69. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Atlanta Braves
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 70/80, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Foltynewicz got an 18.2 inning taste of the big leagues late in 2014 and started 18 of his 21 minor league appearances, but is far from a finished product. He sits 95-98 mph and has hit 100 mph as a starter with a curveball that flashes plus at times, but his lack of command of the pitch causes the pitch to play closer to average at times. His changeup has flashed plus for some scouts, but plays average to slightly above for most. There’s a lack of feel here that causes many to doubt Foltynewicz’s future as a starter. He’s a solid athlete and his delivery isn’t that bad but he hasn’t quite put it all together ye. The Braves top scouts have seen the best version of Foltynewicz and they’re confident that big league pitching coach Roger McDowell can coax the starter traits out of Folty on a regular basis, likely in the big leagues in 2015.

70. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Video
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Sanchez has a sturdy 6-foot-4/200 frame and loose arm that helped him go in the sandwich round in 2010 out of a southern California high school. He was a raw pitcher with flashes of power stuff, but Sanchez has really grown into his velocity since then, sitting 95-98 and hitting 99 mph in 33 big league relief innings at the end of 2014. As his off-speed stuff has improved to give Sanchez at least mid-rotation stuff, the question remains if he fits better there or as a closer. Toronto’s #5 starter spot is still an open competition along with at least one bullpen slot, so Sanchez has the opportunity this year to prove where he fits.

71. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 70/80, Slider: 60/65, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45, FV: 55
Scouting Report: The 6-foot-9/220 monster sat 98-100 mph for two innings in the linked video in last year’s Arizona Fall League debut. He surprised some scouts by lasting the whole season in the rotation at Triple-A this year, throwing 130.1 innings with lesser but still elite stuff, sitting 93-98 with plus life and the knockout slider. Meyer’s changeup has improved and flashes solid-average while his huge frame and long limbs give him trouble commanding his pitches and repeating his delivery. Most scouts think he ends up as a shutdown closer, but the Twins are trying to make him a starter and there’s still a chance Meyer gets there. If he can tone everything down to where it’s repeatable, the upside is probably a #3 starter but this seems destined for the bullpen at some point, with a 2015 big league look likely once an spot opens up.

72. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Nick is the son of Tom Gordon and the brother of Marlins 2B Dee Gordon, so the bloodlines are good and when Nick was a high school sophomore, his senior teammates were first rounders RF Jesse Winker and RHP Walker Weickel. Combine that with the fact that Nick was noticeable as a top prospect in his class as early as his freshman year and he seemed to be at every major showcase or tournament his entire prep career and it’s easy to see why scout were comfortable with him by draft time. Between October and January showcases, Gordon appeared to put on about 10 pounds and mature physically, turning him from a late first rounder into the 5th overall pick. He doesn’t have flashy tools other than his plus arm that allowed him to hit 95 mph on the mound, so there isn’t much margin for error, but Gordon has excellent feel for the game, helped by working with Barry Larkin during earlier this year.

73. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Slider: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Stewart was the 4th overall pick in 2013 as an athletic righty that flashed plus stuff at times and was also a four star quarterback recruit committed to Texas A&M. He’s had some ups and down in pro ball with his stuff varying from game-to-game, but he’s still relatively new to the mound and arm speed variations are normal for young arms with limited experience.

74. Tyler Kolek, RHP, Miami Marlins
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Kolek jumped on the national scene in the summer of 2013 after hitting 100 mph at the Area Code Games regional tryout in Texas, just after the 2013 MLB Draft. He then showed up at most of the major events over the summer, where his velocity ranged from 93-98, hitting 100 mph in early innings, but sometimes would dip to the low 90?s in longer outings. His sharp low-80?s curveball would flash plus but was often just average to above, while he only very sparingly threw a nascent changeup. As prep pitchers often do, Kolek’s velo slipped after the draft and he looked quite ordinary, but this is a long-term play by the Marlins. If Kolek can maintain his peak stuff, he’s got a chance to be a frontline starter, which is rare, but there’s a long way to go and there’s plenty of risk along the way.

75. Vince Velasquez, RHP, Houston Astros
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Velasquez has been a standout talent when healthy, but he has a long history of injuries. He had a strained ligament and stress fracture in his throwing elbow in his junior year of high school, then after going in the 2nd round and throwing 29.1 pro innings in 2010, Velasquez missed all of 2011 with Tommy John surgery. He also didn’t look his best in the Arizona Fall League after a solid season, with multiple teams telling me they were spooked enough by the medical to avoid him in trade talks. When he’s right, Velasquez sits 91-95 with a plus changeup and an improving curveball that flashes average to slightly above, to go with some feel to pitch that draw solid-average command grades. He’s also an excellent athlete that looks on the mound like he could grab a stick and play in the field if he wanted to. Some scouts that saw him at his peak prefer him to Appel, but the spotty history makes that a hard stance to support without more healthy innings from Velasquez.

76. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
More: Video
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Reyes grew up in New Jersey then moved to the Dominican, where he signed with the Cardinals for $850,000. He checks all the boxes as a young power arm, with a projectable 6-foot-3/185 frame, a solid delivery, and easy plus fastball that sits 92-95 and hits 97 mph along withe a curveball that flashes plus. He’s still learning the finer points of his craft, with his command and consistency of his off-speed stuff varying start-to-start. He’ll be 20 in High-A next year and could be on the fast track to the big leagues with some key adjustments.

77. Michael Conforto, LF, New York Mets
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Conforto was a well-known as an elite hitting prospect early in his career at Oregon State but kicked it into another gear in his draft year. His plus raw power and bat speed from the left side to go with a patient and power-focused approach appealed to a lot of scouts, with the Mets taking Conforto off the board at 10th overall. He earned a shaky defensive reputation in college and when I saw him in the summer after his sophomore year for Team USA, his arm was a 40 or 45 and he was still having some difficulty getting good jumps. He took a step forward in his draft spring, looking about average defensively with his arm suddenly playing average to slightly above. The idea that he was a first baseman was gone and the coaches in Brooklyn raved about Conforto’s defense after he signed. The bat is the carrying tool for Conforto and he’s the same age as Nimmo, so it’ll be interesting to compare their development over the next few years as advanced corner bats.

78. Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 40/35, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Sisco was an under-the-radar draft prospect that didn’t go to the big showcases and only started catching in his senior year, because he pitched and played multiple positions. He’s still rough at times behind the plate, but it’s more due to a lack of experience with the little things than a lack of ability. The tools are there to stick behind the plate and be average defensively, with enough arm for the position, though Sisco needs to work on quickening his release. The carrying tool here is the bat and scouts grade it anywhere from 55 to 70, despite Sisco’s highest pro experience coming at Low-A. One scout said Sisco’s approach and offensive tools are similar to former Orioles RF Nick Markakis.

79. Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland A’s
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/45, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 65/65, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Barreto was known to international scouts for years before he signed for $1.45 million on July 2nd, 2012 from Venezuela. There’s something to be said for smaller kids reaching their potential sooner than the more projectable, higher upside prospects, but don’t mistake Barreto for a low upside prospect just due to his size. He’s a plus runner that very well could end up sticking at shortstop, where he plays now and has made improvements, though most scouts see his actions and size and assume he slides over to second base or out to center field. At the least, he’ll offer the ability to play all three positions in the big leagues if needed. He’s so advanced at the plate that he may play both A-Ball levels in 2015 and zoom through the system, which is why the A’s made him a key part of the Josh Donaldson trade.

50 FV Prospects (Tier of 63)

80. Dalton Pompey, CF, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 45/45, Game Power: 35/40, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 45/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Pompey was a little-known, young-for-his-class Canadian high schooler in the 2011 draft and stayed under the radar until a strong finish to his 2013 campaign in Low-A. He shot through the system in 2014, going form High-A to the big leagues after he kept impressing at each level when the Blue Jays though he may settle in. Pompey will start in Triple-A or the big leagues in 2015 and is the center fielder of the future, but the tools are more solid everyday than star material.

81. Stephen Piscotty, RF, St. Louis Cardinals
More: Video
Hit: 45/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 35/50, Run: 45/45+, Field: 50/50, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Piscotty has been a steady if unspectacular prospect for years, showing above average tools and performance. He had and excuse for his raw power not showing up enough in games because he went to Stanford where they literally yell at hitters to not hit homers in batting practice. Piscotty hit nine homer sin a full Triple-A season last year, so with little progress and in today’s muted offensive environment, that’s one of the top 60 corner outfielders in the game, but the raw power is there for 20 homers, which would make him a middle of the order type bat.

82. Marco Gonzales, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
More: Video
Fastball: 50/50, Slider: 45/50, Curveball: 50/50, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: In the 2013 draft, Gonzales was seen as a quick-moving college lefty with above average command and a plus changeup, but probably just #4 starter upside. He shot through the minors and had his first speed bump in his big league audition, but some minor adjustments should unlock a steady, league-average starter in short order.

83. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 40/40, Game Power: 20/40, Run: 70/70, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Turner was barely known by scouts in high school, then was seen as a possible first rounder after a huge freshman year at N.C. State. He has a chance to go in the top five picks with his teammate LHP Carlos Rodon (#8 on this list) entering his junior season, but trouble with swing mechanics led to an up-and-down draft year. Rodon went 3rd overall and Turner went 13th overall, with Turner being dealt this summer in a three-way deal with Tampa Bay and San Diego, but he can’t be formally sent to the Nationals until one year after he signed, which will be this June. I’m a high guy on Turner in the industry and I may adjust his hit grade up a notch with a strong start to 2015.

84. Brandon Drury, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 45/50, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Drury was traded from Atlanta to Arizona as a secondary piece in the first Justin Upton deal. He’s steadily made progress since a slow start to pro ball and now is knocking on the door of the big leagues with solid tools across the board. The D’Backs toyed with trying Drury at second base in the Arizona Fall League since he had such good range at third, but his bat is what will carry him; I may be a grade light on it.

85. Brandon Nimmo, RF, New York Mets
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Nimmo has an unusual background as a 1st rounder from a Wyoming high school, where they don’t even have organized high school baseball. He played for a travel team leading up to the draft and teams liked his smooth lefty stroke, power potential and plus athleticism. Nimmo probably ends up in right field and is still working through his fit on the offensive contact/power and aggressive/passive spectrum, but the tools are here for an above average everyday right fielder and he’s performed well while being young for his level.

86. Andrew Susac, C, San Francisco Giants
More: Video
Hit: 40/45+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 40/50, Run: 35/35, Field: 50/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Susac is pretty well explained by his tool grades and he’s near big league ready. He’s can catch and throw at least league average and his ultimate upside comes down to how much contact he makes and how much of his 20-homer power he gets to in games.

87. Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
More: Video
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 45/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 55/55, Field: 55/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Orlando is the younger brother of Twins OF Oswaldo Arcia and has been beating expectations since he signed out of Venezuela in 2010 for $95,000. After signing, he immediately looked like a steal as a skinny kid that could play shortstop and hit a bit, but he took another step forward this year, hitting 13% better than league average, stealing 31 bases and posting great plate discipline numbers in a full season at High-A last year at age 19. He’ll head to Double-A next year at age 20 and has the look of a solid everyday shortstop.

88. Michael Lorenzen, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/60, Curveball: 40/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Lorenzen, like Howard below (#128 on the list) was drafted as a two-way college closer with limited experience on the mound, particularly in long outings. Lorenzen surprised the Reds with his feel for pitching and his ability to hold his sinker-slider combo that flashes plus late into outings. There’s mid-rotation upside here, but Lorenzen still needs to work on some of the finer points of setting up hitters.

89. Grant Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
More: Video
Fastball: 55/65, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Holmes may have been my favorite prep pitcher in last year’s draft. He’s only 6-foot tall and has no physical projection remaining, but he’s strong, has feel to pitch and has knockout #2 starter stuff. Holmes hit 100 mph early in the spring but more commonly sits 92-94, hitting 96 mph with an easy plus curveball and changeup that flashes above average.

90. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 50/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Adames is one of the most recent examples of the Tigers developing a solid prospect and dealing him as soon as he had significant trade value, like RHP Jake Thompson (#29 on this list) who was used to get RHP Joakim Soria. Adames had a breakout year at Low-A in 2014 and was the significant second piece used to get LHP David Price. The Rays were pleasantly surprised how quickly the 19-year-old Adames became a leader for their Low-A club after the trade, but the reason they traded for him was his advanced feel for the game and easy everyday tools.

91. Raimel Tapia, CF, Colorado Rockies
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/60, Game Power: 30/40, Raw Power: 35/45, Speed: 60/60, Field: 45/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Tapia is rail-thin and his swing is kinda funny-looking, but he hits so much (.342/.392/.503 in over 700 PA in domestic leagues) that scouts are starting to mention those things less often. He’ll head to the hitter-friendly Cal League next year and will rake again, but his upside is limited a bit by his size and power. One scout said a bad outcome for Tapia would be turning into Jon Jay, with a good chance he’s better than that.

92. Albert Almora, CF, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 55/55, Field: 60/65, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Almora was my favorite player in the 2012 draft class due to his advanced instincts and feel for the game on both sides of the ball. He’s still that guy, but had a hamate injury and has had some struggles at the plate because he’s such an aggressive hitter. He’ll need to make some adjustments to his approach since Double-A was the first level where he couldn’t hit with that approach. If he makes some progress there, he has 15+ homer power and near Gold Glove defense, so there’s some real ceiling despite just solid raw tools.

93. Max Pentecost, C, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Video
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 20/45+, Game Power: 45/50+, Run: 55/50+, Field: 45/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Pentecost was the breakout prospect in last summer’s Cape Cod League as a super-athletic catcher from a small school (Kennesaw State), that was a so-so physical away from signing with Texas out of high school. I was the high guy on him much of the spring, with the industry catching up when Theo Epstein was spotted at a Pentecost game and rumors spread that he may go #4 overall. Pentecost ended up going #11 overall and has unusual tools for a catcher with a ridiculous amount of energy (watch the end of the linked video) and every tool solid average or better, though his line drive approach in games causes his raw power to play down right now.

94. Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals
More: Video
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/50+, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Zimmer’s pure ability belongs much higher on this list, with frontline stuff, a clean delivery and outstanding athleticism that helps creates solid average command. Zimmer has also been to Double-A already and could turn into a frontline starter, but he can’t stay healthy, throwing 14.1 innings last year due to arm trouble, then leaving the Arizona Fall League after three outings to get shoulder surgery. Scouts assume he won’t be able to handle a starter’s workload and he should just be used in relief, but now we don’t know if the stuff will come back after surgery, so there’s lots of questions, risk and upside here.

95. Erick Fedde, RHP, Washington Nationals
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Fedde broke out last summer for Team USA and on the Cape, then steadily climbed up draft boards to the point that he was a consensus top 10 pick when he was forced to get Tommy John surgery before the draft. The Nats drafted him in the back half of the first round knowing they normally don’t have a chance to pick this kind of talent and all indications are solid from his rehab. There’s mid-rotation upside with a slight chance for more, and elbow surgery has something like an 85% success rate, so if he comes back later this year with the same stuff, Fedde will move up this list a healthy amount.

96. Justin O’Conner, C, Tampa Bay Rays
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/45, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 40/40, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 80/80, FV: 50
Scouting Report: O’Conner was a raw first round pick in 2011 out of an Indiana high school, with multiple teams having him in the middle rounds because they didn’t think he’d hit enough. That looked to be the case until this year, when things clicked across the board for O’Conner and he stood out offensively in High-A and the Arizona Fall League and getting back on track on an age-versus-level basis by hitting Double-A late in the year. O’Conner is still a power over hit guy that will strike out a fair amount, but the offensive standard for catchers is low and he’ll be at least average behind the plate and likely be better due to his top-of-the-scale 80 arm with a freaky quick release that allows him to put up ridiculous pop times in the 1.7s.

97. Daniel Robertson, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
More: Video
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 45/45, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Robertson was acquired by the Rays from the A’s this winter in the Ben Zobrist trade and he’s a steady player with solid tools that still gets somewhat wide-ranging reviews from scouts. From my limited look at his this fall, he can’t play shortstop and at least one-third of scouts agreed with what I saw, which I also realize could’ve just been a bad look. The A’s, Rays and execs from other clubs are convinced after seeing him a lot over the past few years that he can play shortstop, which would help his solid average bat fit even better in the lineup. I think Robertson fits as an offensive second baseman who may hit 15-18 homers, so even Robertson’s detractors see a solid everyday player.

98. Marcos Molina, RHP, New York Mets
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 45/55, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Molina threw in the mid-80’s when he signed at age 16 out of the Dominican Republic, then his stuff ticked up in short stints in 2013 to hit the mid-90’s. This year, he was able to showcase that stuff over full outings at age 19, sitting 91-94 and hitting 97 mph. He was a pitchability guy with a good changeup when he was a soft-tosser, and Molina has kept those elements, with his fastball and slider ticking up with the added arm speed. Molina will head to a very pitcher-friendly park in Low-A Savannah next year and scouts are predicting a big year; if the stuff ticks up just one more notch, he’ll easily be in the top 50 next year.

99. Rob Kaminsky, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
More: Video
Fastball: 50/50+, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Kaminsky isn’t the typical 1st round high school pitcher as he’s listed at 5-foot-11/191, but the stuff is big and there’s advanced feel to pitch. Kaminsky sits in the low-90’s, his changeup took a step forward in his first full year and his plus curveball is a now weapon that could get big leaguers out. The Cardinals have a good track record with developing young pitchers and Kaminsky is about as advanced as cold-weather bred 20-year-old arm can be, so he might move fast.

100. Jacob Lindgren, LHP, New York Yankees
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 60/65, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: The biggest surprise so far from the 2014 draft was the meteoric post-draft rise of Lindgren. In 2013, he was a generic sophomore lefty with fringy stuff starting for Mississippi State, then he asked to be moved to relief in the fall, he hit the mid-90’s with a nasty slider and never looked back. Lindgren carved up the SEC and the Yankees took him in the 2nd round. He then proceeded to carve up the minors with equally impressive numbers and he’s now knocking on the door of the big leagues with closer level stuff and just enough of the feel from his starter days to spot his hellacious slider where he wants it.

101. Clint Frazier, CF, Cleveland Indians
More: Video
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/5, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Frazier was the most fun player to watch in the 2013 draft class, with an out-of-control red mop of hair and Gary Sheffield-level 80 bat speed that allowed him to put on ridiculous batting practice displays at his small home park. Frazier had some trouble making contact in high school against soft-tosser because it causes problems for him to try to slow down his incredibly fast hands. He had some similar timing and approach issues in his full-season debut, striking out in nearly 30% of his at bats, but flashing the same huge tools. Frazier is just fast enough to play center field and he might hit 30 homers, but he fits fine in right field if he ends up there eventually.

102. Jorge Mateo, SS, New York Yankees
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 20/45, Raw Power: 45/45+, Speed: 80/80, Field: 45/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Mateo was generating a lot of buzz this summer in Rookie ball for the Yankees, but he broke his finger before I was able to get out to see him. I saw him this fall in instructional league and I saw where there was so much buzz around him; he has top-of-the-scale 80 speed, has the tools to stick at shortstop, has surprising pop and was hanging with pitches three or four years older than him. Mateo still has a very short track record, so his full-season debut in 2015 will be closely watched, with a good shot Mateo moves up on next year’s list.

103. Josh Bell, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates
More: Video
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Bell was considered unsignable out of a Texas high school in 2011, but the Pirates took him in the 2nd round and signed him for $5 million, seeing a dynamic right fielder. He still probably fits best as a right fielder, so I’ll list him there, but the Pirates have three center field-caliber defenders entrenched in their lineup (Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco), a huge outfield that necessitates this kind of ability, and a hole to fill long-term at first base. So, since defense was never a big part of his game, Pittsburgh is shifting Bell to first and he’s still new over there, so it’s a little rough, but he should be fine. He may not be the middle-of-the-order terror the Pirates were expecting, but the bat should be enough to profile everyday at any position.

104. Brian Johnson, LHP, Boston Red Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 50/50, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 50/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Johnson was on a loaded 2012 Florida team that included C Mike Zunino, SS Nolan Fontana, LF Preston Tucker, RHP Jonathon Crawford and LHP Paco Rodriguez, among others. Johnson had above average power from the left side and served as DH at times, but his upside was on the mound, as a pitchability lefty that flashes above average stuff. On any given day, Johnson’s stuff may be closer to average, but his feel for pitching helps it to play up; he’s likely to hit his upside as a back-end starter, but there isn’t much more in the tank.

105. Miguel Almonte, RHP, Kansas City Royals
More: Video
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 45/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Almonte will flash huge ability at times, sitting 93-96 mph with a plus changeup at times, but he often doesn’t have that peak combination at the same time that he has his peak curveball and peak command. He also throws from a lower slot, which means lefties can see the ball better against him than other righties and it also can flatten out his pitches at times. If Almonte can find more consistency in his delivery, that should go a long way towards correcting these issues and unlocking his mid-rotation upside.

106. Christian Bethancourt, C, Atlanta Braves
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/45, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 30/45, Run: 40/40, Field: 55/60, Throw: 80/80, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Bethancourt has long been known to scouts as a standout defender with an 80 arm, but he hasn’t had much polish to his game on either side of the ball until recently. He made strides with the finer points of his defense and finally starting putting up offensive numbers in the last couple years, giving the Braves a comfort level with letting Brian McCann leave, as Bethancourt will step in this year with the starting job.

107. Brett Phillips, CF, Houston Astros
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 40/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 70/70, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Phillips was a late-rising prep prospect in the 2012 draft as an all-county wide receiver and linebacker who emerged a standout center fielder in his draft year. He was seen as an above average to plus runner that can play center field, standing out for his plus plus arm and contact ability. Phillips took another step forward in 2014, adding strength to his frame and hitting for more power while keeping his speed. If he keeps hitting like this in 2015, Phillips will likely work his way into the middle of the top 100 next year.

108. Jorge Polanco, 2B, Minnesota Twins
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 40/45+, Game Power: 30/40, Run: 50/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Scouts seem to slightly prefer Polanco to Herrera, as both are basically big league ready second basemen with similar tools, so they’re easy to compare. The separator is that Polanco can play shortstop if needed, so if the bat doesn’t play as much as expected, he can be a true utility player. Both have advanced bats and below average game power, so it’s basically a coin flip, but Polanco gives more defensive versatility with the same overall tools while Herrera has a better offensive track record.

109. Dilson Herrera, 2B, New York Mets
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 45/55, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 40/45, Run: 50/50+, Field: 45/50, Throw: 45/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Herrera follows in the footsteps of Rangers 2B Rougned Odor as a smallish Latin second baseman that was a known quantity on July 2nd, but had to settle for a low six figure bonus due to a lack of flashy tools. Both raked their way to the big leagues as potential everyday players, so maybe teams should change how they look at this kind of guy, but even now scouts find it hard to go all-in on Herrera. His swing is funny, he doesn’t project to hit for a lot of game power and he can only play second base, but he also raked his way to the big leagues at age 20 and there’s enough here for an everyday player.

110. Kyle Freeland, LHP, Colorado Rockies
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Freeland stood out on the Cape as a potential first rounder, then took another step forward this spring, when he was untouchable down the stretch, flashing plus stuff and advanced command. The problem is that an elbow surgery as a high school freshman contributed to big questions about his medical on draft day, with some teams telling me they wouldn’t take him in the first round at all, though Colorado took the hometown kid at 8th overall for an under-slot bonus. The mechanics aren’t great but the stuff can be at times, so it’ll be interesting to see if Freeland can stay healthy and if he can continue showing the premium stuff he did down the stretch in 2014.

111. Nick Kingham, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
More: Video
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/50, Changeup: 55/55, Command: 45/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Kingham isn’t a sexy prospect, but he’s near big league ready and projects as a steady, league-average #4 starter. What I’m supposed to say now is that this kind of player is worth over $10 million a year on the open market, so this is the key, cost-controlled contributor that smaller market teams like PIttsburgh need. I guess I did say it, I’m just trying to let you know Kingham isn’t the super exciting prospect whose video you can’t wait to watch.

112. Lucas Sims, RHP, Atlanta Braves
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Sims was another 1st round high school pick of a local Atlanta kid by the Braves and, though he had a tough 1st half in 2014, he regrouped down the stretch and is back on track. One scout compared Sims’ talent to Matt Cain out of high school and, while the body types are different, on Sims’ best day he shows that kind of stuff. His curveball regressed a bit in 2014, but it’s flashed plus at times and the ability is there for at least average command, so mid-rotation upside is still on the table.

113. Francelis Montas, RHP, Chicago White Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/70, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Montas was acquired from the Red Sox in the Jake Peavy deal in 2013 and he’s emerged as more than just a circus act in Rookie ball that hit 100 mph. Montas has steadily improved, with his average slider taking a big step forward this year to now flashing plus, his changeup is now enough to give him a starter’s repertoire and he still hits 100 mph at times. The question is whether his delivery and command fit as a starter and most think he ends up as a closer, but there’s still a chance he figures out a way to fit as a mid-rotation starter.

114. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 35/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: I saw Toussaint pitch in his sophomore year of high school and he was very athletic, sitting 88-91 mph with a plus curveball at age 16. He blew up the following fall before his junior year, when he hit 97 mph and flashed a 70 curveball in front of hundreds of scouts at a high profile tournament. He stalled a bit in the summer before his senior year and early in his draft spring, scuffling in the low-90’s with diminished stuff and little command. He broke out later in the spring, flashing the same power stuff from before, but choosing to dial it down a notch and working in a new changeup, so he could successfully command it and get hitters out. This adjustment got Toussaint drafted in the middle of the first round, but there’s still a long way to go.

115. Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
More: Video
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 55/65, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Medeiros was one of the most unique pitchers in the 2014 draft, as a skinny 6-foot-1 prep lefty from Hawaii that throws from a near sidearm angle, but hits 95 mph with an easy plus slider. Scouts weren’t sure where to rank such a unique prospect, but he steadily moved up boards into the mid-to-late first round, with a sterling pre-draft workout in Milwaukee prompting the Brewers to draft him at 12th overall. There’s mid-rotation or closer upside and it’s too early to have a good idea of what he’ll turn into.

116. Spencer Adams, RHP, Chicago White Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 45/50+, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Adams is a classic multi-sport, athletic projection prospect: he sat in the high-80’s as a junior, then sat in the low-90’s and hit 96 mph in his draft spring. Scouts liked that he had four pitches and advanced feel to turn over a changeup despite playing a lot of basketball, where the 6-foot-5 Adams stood out (and dunked often). Adams has a chance to rocket up this list if his performance in pro ball matches his considerable upside and some rival teams think he’s most likely in this group to be in the top quarter of this list in a few years.

117. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Ortiz drew Jose Fernandez comparisons from some scouts this spring, with a pre-draft elbow scare causing him to slip to the end of the first round to the Rangers. When healthy, Ortiz has consistently shown two plus pitches and all the traits you want to see from a future starter, so he’s about as close to reaching his #3 starter upside as a 19-year-old can be at this point.

118. Brad Zimmer, RF, Cleveland Indians
More: Video
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 50/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 60/55, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: This summer, Zimmer was another highly athletic first rounder out of the University of San Francisco like his brother Kyle (#93 on this list). Brad is a hitter that’s drawn comparisons to Marlins OF Christian Yelich for his long frame, deceptive speed, and contact approach. Zimmer can play a solid center field now, but likely moves to right field eventually, with further physical projection and/or adding loft to his swing potentially making him a really good starter, if he can hit for average and power in games.

119. Roberto Osuna, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Video
Fastball: 55/60, Cutter: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Osuna signed for $1.5 million in 2011 as a 16-year-old out of Mexico. He had a mature frame and had hit 95 mph, but sat around 90 and relied on pitchability and an above average to plus changeup. He returned from Tommy John surgery late this year and his velocity jumped a couple ticks, to the surprise and delight of Blue Jays execs. He’s now sitting 92-94 and hitting 97 mph, sitting a few ticks higher in short stints, with a slider and cutter that are both above average and the same changeup as before. The command hasn’t quite come back but that usually happens in year two or three after surgery, so Osuna could shoot up this list soon.

120. Greg Bird, 1B, New York Yankees
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 35/35, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Bird is indeed the word after Greg breakout 2014 season, which came on the heels of a shockingly good full-season debut in 2013. The converted catcher is first base-only, so he has to mash to be an everyday player and he doesn’t show you much power in batting practice, but really stands out in games. Bird has plus power and good plate discipline, with some comparing him to a non-injury-prone Nick Johnson.

121. Colin Moran, 3B, Houston Astros
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Moran is arguably the most polarizing prospect in the minor leagues and I delved into why at length at the full report linked to above. The short version is that he’s an unexciting player who hits well, doesn’t have much power, is a gangly, low energy kid that, at first glance, can’t play third base. The good version is that he really hits, he has good plate discipline, there’s reason to believe the power is coming and he’s a late bloomer for upstate New York that can stick at third and has generally been young for his minor league levels, even though he went to college. Sort through all that and decide what you think; this ranking is splitting the difference on people that think he’s top 100 quality or barely a prospect worth mentioning.

122. Alex Blandino, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50+, Run: 50/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Blandino hit two straight summers on the Cape but struggled during the spring with the short-sighted hitting philosophy at Stanford. He broke out in his draft year and showed more raw power, hitting his way into the first round. The Reds think he might be able to stick at shortstop and he played third base at Stanford, but most scouts have thought for years that Blandino’s best fit is at second base.

123. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
More: Video
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 40/45+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Last summer on the high school showcase circuit, Flaherty was seen as a top-three round caliber third baseman with a super-athletic long, projectable frame and a smooth swing. Scouts knew he also pitched, but he didn’t throw over the summer and has fringy to average stuff as a junior. In his senior year, Flaherty took a big step forward on the mound, flashing three above average pitches and above average command with a clean delivery, a projectable athletic frame and limited miles on his arm. There isn’t a plus pitch right now and he hasn’t thrown a ton in the last year, but Flaherty has just about everything else going for him.

124. Duane Underwood, RHP, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Underwood was an inconsistent prep arm from Atlanta in the 2012 draft that, early in his pro career, look to be more bust than boom. He turned things around and had a breakout 2014 campaign in Low-A, flashing three plus pitches at times. Underwood still has trouble with command at time and he often only has one or two of his pitches working in any given outing, so there’s plenty of room for growth with #2/3 starter upside if he brings it all together.

125. Pierce Johnson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Johnson popped up in his draft year at Missouri State flashing above average stuff, slipping on draft day due to some concerns about his delivery, command and future health prospects. Johnson has avoided major injuries and performed well, with his above average to plus fastball-curveball combo giving him #3 starter upside, but the command and consistency have been bugaboos and he may ultimate fit best in the bullpen.

126. Lance McCullers, RHP, Houston Astros
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 35/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: McCullers’ father was a big leaguer and Lance Jr. hit 95 mph as a 15-year-old at Tampa area powerhouse Jesuit High School. He’s been a high-profile name for years and the Astros signed him to a $2.5 million bonus in 2012 with some of the savings from an under-slot deal with #1 overall pick SS Carlos Correa (#5 on this list). McCullers has a nasty fastball-curveball combo that’s plus-plus on the right day and would easily make him a closer if he can’t stick as a starter.

127. Travis Demeritte, 2B, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50, Game Power: 20/50, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 50/50+, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Demeritte drew Brandon Phillips comparisons as an offensive standout Atlanta-area prep shortstop that projected to move to second base. He hit for power in his full-season debut, but didn’t make as much contact as you’d like to see. Demeritte has feel to hit and above average bat speed, so it’s more a matter of striking a contact/power balance. He has solid everyday tools and could move quick, but probably won’t be a star.

128. Nick Howard, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Howard was the closer for UVA last spring and blew away ACC hitters with a fastball he ran up to 98 mph and a plus slider. He’s a big athlete that had started the previous summer on the Cape and the Reds took him in the 1st round to turn him back into a starter. The stuff was down a notch in most outings after signing, but he showed flashes of that closer stuff in some outings as a starter. As Howard gets stretched out, if that plus stuff comes back for longer stretches, he will move up this list quickly.

129. Forrest Wall, 2B, Colorado Rockies
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/55, Game Power: 35/45, Raw Power: 45/45+, Speed: 65/65, Field: 45/50, Throw: 45/45, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Wall was one of “my guys” in the 2014 draft and I can’t believe he lasted until the 35th overall pick, with most scouts explaining it as a systematic bias against high school second basemen. Normally that would mean Wall is deficient in a tool-sense, but he only plays second base because of a shoulder surgery as an underclassman; he has legitimate mid-first round tools if he was a shortstop. The bat is above average, the power is near average, the defense is at least average and the speed is a difference maker; look for Wall to move quickly and make lots of teams feel foolish for passing.

130. Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/40, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 20/40, Run: 40/40, Field: 60/65, Throw: 70/70, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Hedges was ready defensively for the big league last year and probably would’ve been above average, too. He has some raw power and some feel to hit, but the bat speed isn’t great and his mechanics have always been a little awkward. You don’t have to hit much these days to be an everyday catcher, especially when you’re plus defensively. Hedges knows he just needs to make a little progress with the bat to become a big league starter and he’s focusing on it now more than ever.

131. Lewis Brinson, CF, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/45, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 65/65, Field: 60/65, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Brinson starts a three-player run of crazy tooled-up center fielders with enormous upside. Brinson made the best defensive play I’ve ever seen when I watched him in high school and he’s still crazy elite in this area. Brinson runs and has raw power, but he’s tall and has long limbs and is very skinny, so corralling his body into a consistent swing can sometimes be a challenge. He’s slowly made progress and could be on the verge of a breakout in 2015.

132. Derek Hill, CF, Detroit Tigers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 80/70, Field: 55/65, Throw: 50/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Hill is the son of a Dodgers scout and the Tigers took him in the first round out of a Sacramento-area high school last summer. Hill has advanced feel to hit and to defend as you’d expect from a scout’s son, with shockingly good tools to back it up. He struggled down the stretch last summer after signing, but it sounds like he was tired from a long season; Hill has the tools to shoot up this list if he puts it all together.

133. Michael Taylor, CF, Washington Nationals
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/40, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 30/45+, Run: 60/60, Field: 55/60, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Taylor has massive tools and is near big league ready, but rates this low only because his approach has scouts doubting that he’ll get anywhere near his offensive upside. If he figures things out in 2015, it’ll likely be in the big leagues and he won’t be on this list next year. Even if he doesn’t improve much, Taylor’s plus speed and defensive skills should give him near everyday value, even if he doesn’t hit a lick or just leans back and tries to sock some dingers.

134. Tyler Beede, RHP, San Francisco Giants
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Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Beede was a hyped prospect that went in the 1st round out of high school in 2011, opting not to sign with the Blue Jays before going in the first round again in 2014 out of Vanderbilt to the Giants. Beede was maddeningly inconsistent in college, only showing flashes of his immense promise at times, but his velocity spiked into the high-90’s before the draft and his changeup still flashes plus at times, so there’s #2/3 starter upside here if a pitching coach can get through to him.

135. Luke Jackson, RHP, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/55, Slider: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Jackson has long been seen as a reliever that’s doing an impression of a starter in the minors, but now he’s knocking on the door of the big leagues and he may have made enough adjustments to make it work. The stuff plays up in relief for 8th or 9th inning upside, but if the command takes one more step forward, Jackson may turn into a #3/4 starter.

136. Nick Williams, LF, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 55/55, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 45/45, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Williams was heavily hyped as a high school underclassmen in Texas as having Jason Heyward-type tools and while Williams isn’t quite that good of a player, the tools are close to that good. Williams isn’t interested in defense and his arm is below average, so his speed doesn’t contribute much there while his plus raw power is muted in games by his aggressive early-count approach. Williams is so talented he still puts up solid numbers, but it he can make some adjustments to his offensive approach in 2015, he could shoot up this list.

137. Ian Clarkin, LHP, New York Yankees
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Clarkin was the third of the Yankees three first round picks in the 2013 draft and the prep lefty from San Diego has already exceeded expectations. His velocity has settled near the high end of where it was pre-draft and his above average to plus curveball is still the separator, with his changeup and command making good progress in 2014 at Low-A.

138. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, Atlanta Braves
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 45/50+, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Sanchez had a lot of good buzz in 2014 as an advanced 17-year-old pitcher in Rookie ball and he was surprisingly traded this offseason by the Angels to the Braves. Atlanta was surprised and thrilled that Sanchez was available and his solid average stuff and feel with a knockout curveball should move quickly through the minors, with his full-season debut coming in 2015 at Low-A.

139. Hunter Dozier, 3B, Kansas City Royals
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 45/45, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Dozier was a late-rising big shortstop in the 2013 draft class from Stephen F. Austin. The Royals took him with an under-slot at 8th overall and those savings allowed them to take LHP Sean Manaea (37th on this list) with the first pick in the sandwich round. Dozier had tons of helium pre-draft and had a big debut, but struggled with contact issues in the second half of 2014 in Double-A. He’s a good athlete with easy everyday tools, so if the bat comes around in 2015, he’ll be close to a callup.

140. Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco Giants
More: Video
Fastball: 60/70, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 35/45, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Crick has electric #2/3 starter stuff, is still only 22 and is in the upper levels of the minors, but his command has never been strong. Some guys with big stuff just take time to develop the feel and find consistency in their delivery, so the Giants will give Crick more innings to figure it out. If he has trouble developing those starter traits again this season, Crick could get a big league audition in relief and he may stick there, with real closer upside.

141. Nick Travieso, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Travieso is a husky workhorse righty that flashes a plus fastball-slider combination and could turn into a #3 starter, but the consistency of his breaking ball, changeup and command will all waver at times. There isn’t physical projection left, so most scouts hedge and call him a back-end starter, but the mentality and stuff both may end up fitting better in late relief down the road.

142. Tyler Danish, RHP, Chicago White Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: I didn’t believe in Danish as a high schooler in the 2012 draft class because his arm action and delivery were, to be kind, unconventional. Chris Sale‘s mechanics were supposed to lead to his arm exploding, too, and that hasn’t happened, so maybe the White Sox just have a knack for finding the guys that can make this work. Danish is as competitive as they come and I think he’ll stick as a starter, but the stuff ticks up in relief, so don’t be surprised if he finds his way into the big league bullpen in late 2015 if there’s a need and a pennant race.

45+ FV Prospects (Tier of 58)

As you may have noticed from the size of the last tier, numerical rankings become nearly irrelevant at this point, as there just aren’t enough clear separations for me to take a strong stance on one player over another. So, rather than continue to order players when it adds no real value, here are the 45+ FV players — or those caught in the in-between space between 45 FV and 50 FV — presented as an extended section of guys who just missed the cut. They are grouped by team, so you can find the guys in your favorite team’s farm system who may very well be strong contenders for a full write-up next year.

45+ FV Honorable Mentions Position Team
Jake Lamb 3B Arizona Diamondbacks
Yoan Lopez RHP Arizona Diamondbacks
Manny Banuelos LHP Atlanta Braves
Tyrell Jenkins RHP Atlanta Braves
Braxton Davidson RF Atlanta Braves
Christian Walker 1B Baltimore Orioles
Zach Davies RHP Baltimore Orioles
Jomar Reyes 3B Baltimore Orioles
Garin Cecchini 3B Boston Red Sox
Matt Barnes RHP Boston Red Sox
Deven Marrero SS Boston Red Sox
Michael Chavis 3B Boston Red Sox
Dan Vogelbach 1B Chicago Cubs
Billy McKinney LF Chicago Cubs
Gleyber Torres SS Chicago Cubs
Trey Michalczewski 3B Chicago White Sox
Yorman Rodriguez RF Cincinnati Reds
Aristides Aquino RF Cincinnati Reds
Amir Garrett LHP Cincinnati Reds
Tyler Anderson LHP Colorado Rockies
Steven Moya RF Detroit Tigers
Domingo Santana RF Houston Astros
Jorge Bonifacio RF Kansas City Royals
Roberto Baldoquin SS Los Angeles Angels
Chris Anderson RHP Los Angeles Dodgers
Alex Verdugo RF Los Angeles Dodgers
J.T. Realmuto C Miami Marlins
Corey Knebel RHP Milwaukee Brewers
Clint Coulter RF Milwaukee Brewers
Tyrone Taylor CF Milwaukee Brewers
Monte Harrison CF Milwaukee Brewers
Gilbert Lara 3B Milwaukee Brewers
Lewis Thorpe LHP Minnesota Twins
Rafael Montero RHP New York Mets
Dominic Smith 1B New York Mets
Rob Refsnyder 2B New York Yankees
Matt Olson 1B Oakland A’s
Renato Nunez 3B Oakland A’s
Matt Chapman 3B Oakland A’s
Zach Eflin RHP Philadelphia Phillies
Alen Hanson SS Pittsburgh Pirates
Reese McGuire C Pittsburgh Pirates
Rymer Liriano RF San Diego Padres
Christian Arroyo SS San Francisco Giants
Edwin Diaz RHP Seattle Mariners
Austin Wilson RF Seattle Mariners
Ketel Marte SS Seattle Mariners
Randal Grichuk RF St. Louis Cardinals
Magneuris Sierra CF St. Louis Cardinals
Alex Colome RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Blake Snell LHP Tampa Bay Rays
Taylor Guerrieri RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Andrew Velazquez SS Tampa Bay Rays
Brent Honeywell RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Devon Travis 2B Toronto Blue Jays
Miguel Castro RHP Toronto Blue Jays
A.J. Cole RHP Washington Nationals
Wilmer Difo SS Washington Nationals

And finally, in case you missed them yesterday, the demographics of the Top 200 in visual form.

Top-200-Prospects-Team-Grid

Top-200-Prospects-Position

Top-200-Prospects-Distribution



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Kiley McDaniel has worked in the scouting departments of the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates and has written for ESPN, among other outlets. Follow him on twitter for real-time thoughts on the players he’s seeing and hacky attempts at humor.


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Fanthead
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

Great to see this on a snowday! Thanks so much for all the insightful work.

Trey Baughn
Member
Member
Trey Baughn
1 year 3 months ago

I don’t think anyone else is putting out better prospect coverage that Kiley right now. Well done.

Thomas
Member
Thomas
1 year 3 months ago

Hate to say it, but I would pay for this. Incredible stuff.

soaktherich
Guest
soaktherich
1 year 3 months ago

Ixnay on the aypay, meathead!

Eric F
Guest
Eric F
1 year 3 months ago

Yeah absolutely what I was thinking, was very pleasantly surprised to see this put on the main blog!

Art Vandelay
Member
Member
Art Vandelay
1 year 3 months ago

FG+ dude. Support the site!

awg
Guest
awg
1 year 3 months ago

the amount of aggregated information and in-depth coverage here — all for free — is kind of unbelievable. General thanks and compliments for all of this.

Fanthead
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

Really lOVE this. And thanks for the handy video links. Two questions, Kiley. 1. What player surprised you the most by going higher on the list than you anticipated? 2. What kept Michael Gettys off the list for you? THANKS!!

scousers
Guest
scousers
1 year 3 months ago

Hi Kiley ! Quick question, on your Yankees list Ian clarkin is a 45 FV guy and on your Top 200 he is a 50 !
Why ? is he just that borderline ?

George
Guest
George
1 year 3 months ago

Fantastic! And I also love the introduction, giving an example of what a 60 hit tool looks like, or a 55 grade SP. Puts things in perspective, which other scouting orgs do not do and make it difficult to really see what the grade means.

Josh
Guest
Josh
1 year 3 months ago

Thanks Kiley! The way you list the players by FV really helps keep it in perspective how close some of these guys are. just because one guy is your 30th ranked prospect doesn’t mean he is significantly better than your 40th ranked guy. and think breaking down the totals by FV helps to show that!

Rick
Guest
Rick
1 year 3 months ago

Kiley-

Any chance all of your hard work might become an Ebook? Love to have all of the reports in one central place.

Kelvin
Guest
Kelvin
1 year 3 months ago

Thoughts on Kyle Kubitza? Was he close?

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

awesome stuff, Kiley.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

that being said…..

C Blake Swihart, 22yrs, 6’1″/175lbs

AAA (22): 2.8bb%, 21.1k%, .321babip, .261avg, .116iso, 77wrc+
AA (22): 7.6bb%, 17.1k%, .337babip, .300avg, .187iso, 131wrc+
A+ (21): 9.7bb%, 14.9k%, .350babip, .298avg, .130iso, 121wrc+
A (20): 6.9bb%, 18.0k%, .300babip, .262avg, .134iso, 91wrc+

MILB: 7.8bb%, 17.0k%, .326babip, .284avg, .147iso, 112wrc+

you project him as potentially average defensively, and he’s not the toolsiest prospect around either.

they don’t make top 10 prospects like they used to, eh?

I remember way back when a prospect like Travis D’Arnaud had trouble cracking top 20 lists even while destrouing AA and AAA and with scouts high on his defensive tools.

or is it just a weak year for prospects in general?

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

I’m far from a Sox fan, but the rap on Swihart has always been that he’s toolsy as all hell, but he never put it all together until this past year.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

toolsy as in relatively few weak tools, but no real wow tool other than maybe his arm.

and most top 10 prospects usually have some wow tools or wow performance….well actually most gave both.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

He’s a catcher who, on the low-end, should hit .270/.330/.420 (~.335 wOBA, which is a 110 wRC+ in Fenway) with average defense.

That’s a 3-4 win player, and he’s got the potential to be Lucroy offensively, which is a hell of a catcher even without the framing.

I think he’s more in the 15-25 range, but that’s in the same 60 FV tier as 9 and 10. It’s really just splitting hairs.

To put it another way, Kiley has him as closer in value to the 28th overall prospect than to the 8th overall prospect. His being ranked 9th is just a matter of personal preference within that 60 FV tier.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

further to the tools part of it, here’s kiley’s tool upside projections for the top 20, from best tool to worst (note swihart’s current tools ratings are also lower than his tools upside projections by a bjgger margin than most too):

1. Bryant 80 70 60 50 45 45
2. Buxton 80 70 65 60 55 45
3. Russel 60 55 55 55 55 55
4. Urias 65 65 60 55
5. Correa 65 65 60 55 55 50
6. Seager 60 60 55 55 50 40
7. Giolito 70 70 55 50
8. Rodon 70 60 55 50
9. Swihart 60 55 50 50 50 45
10. Crawforr 60 55 55 55 50 45
11. Pederson 60 55 55 50 50 50
12. Glasnow 70 60 50 50
13. Soler 65 65 60 55 45 45
14. Lindor 60 60 60 60 40 40
15. Sano 80 70 60 50 45 40
16. Gallo 80 70 70 50 45 40
17. Norris 60 60 55 50 50
18. Appel 65 65 60 50
19. Syndergaard 70 55 55 50
20. Jackson 65 60 60 60 50 45

I could go on and include even more guys, but we can already see that Swihart is the only guy in the top 20 with only two projected plus tools, and even those projected plus tools aren’t rated as high as the other top prospects’ best tools. and its not like the other prospects are riddled with weak tools as holes, either.

moreover, one of swihart’s two potential plus tools is actually a weakness at the moment, with his current hit tool rating only a 30. that’s some huge projected improvement in the most important tool from a not so young prospect.

if we do the top 20 with their current tool ratings:

1.Bryant 75 65 55 50 40 40
2.Buxton 80 65 65 60 30 30
3.Russell 60 55 55 50 30 30
4.Urias 60 60 55 45
5.Correa 65 60 55 50 20 20
6.Seager 60 55 50 45 40 40
7.Giolito 65 60 45 45
8.Rodon 60 55 50 45
9.Swihart 60 50 45 45 30 30
10.Crawford 60 55 50 45 20 20
11.Pederson 60 55 50 50 45 45
12.Glasnow 65 55 45 40
13.Soler 65 55 55 50 50 45
14.Lindor 60 60 55 40 30 30
15.Sano 80 60 55 45 40 30
16.Gallo 80 70 60 45 40 30
17.Norris 55 55 50 45 45
18.Appel 60 55 50 40
19.Syndergaard 65 50 50 45
20.Jackson 65 60 45 45 20 20

again Swihart is the only top 20 prospect without at least two current plus tools.

so given that he doesn’t seem to rank even top 20 in terms of tools, you’d think he has some phenomenal peformance to justify a top 10 ranking….but his numbers are only decent, nothing special.

so I really don’t get how he’s even near the top 10, really.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

“He’s a catcher who, on the low-end, should hit .270/.330/.420 (~.335 wOBA, which is a 110 wRC+ in Fenway) with average defense.”

based on kiley’s tool projectiobs, and his milb performance, that’s probably closer to a high-end projection than low-end.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

But you have to remember that 50 catcher defense is as valuable as 60 SS defense, 70 2B/3B/CF defense, and 80 LF/RF defense.

I personally think Lindor is going to be a 70 fielder, which makes him a 65 FV guy for me, but if you bump Swihart’s defense up appropriately he looks like a perfect fit in the third tier.

And, again, the issue here is your fixation on “The Top 10.” Stop caring about that.

There’s the 1-2 tier, the 3-8 tier, the 9-28 tier, the 29-79 tier, the 80-142 tier, and the 143-200 tier.

This list says that Swihart is a lot closer to Jonathan Gray than he is to Rodon, that Jake Thompson is a lot closer to Franklin Barretto than he is to Gray and that Dalton Pompey is a lot closer to Tyler Danish than he is to Barretto.

If you think that Swihart is closer to the 28th best prospect than the 8th best prospect, you agree with Kiley. I’d probably have him in the 15-25 range too, but it really is just splitting hairs.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

by that token, the entire list is just splitting hairs.

Swihart’s tools and performance comparables seem to be in the 70s, not the teens.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

.270/.330/.420 is exactly in line with Kiley’s projections for him, going for the low-end of 50 power, and assuming no further progress with his plate discipline.

Kiley’s projected upside was .280/.340/.440 with above average defense, which is pretty much Lucroy without the framing.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

Of course it’s pretty much all splitting hairs. It’s a prospect list.

And if you think that Swihart fits in the 70s, you don’t understand the value of average catcher defense.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

league average was .251 last year. if we ignore swihart’s current 30 hit tool and focus only on his 55 upside projection, then sure, .270 is reasonable as a high end projection.

league average iso last year was .134, and kiley’s upside power projection is exactly that, so we can give him an upside of .405slg.

now you’re granting him 60pts of obp over his avg, when his milb rate last year and overall is closer to 50. his bb% seems to be deteri9 as he moves up, but even if it wasn’t mlb bb% is rarely as good as in milb. if we give him 40pts above his avg in mlb, which is generous but fair, that gets him up to about a .310obp.

so based on the upside projections, a .270/.310/.405/.715 might be fair. add ten points if you want to adjust fir replacement hitters in those league averages, but basically his upside tools projections inficate a league average hitter. but that’s upside – his current 30 hit tool has to improve dramatically to get there.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

Again, it looks like the issue is that you don’t understand the methodology (which appears to be recurring theme here).

55 bat/50 power isn’t Swihart’s upside. It’s what Kiley views as the most likely outcome. His upside (75th percentile) would be a 60 bat/55 power, which would come out to .280/.340/.440 (you know, like the exact triple slash Kiley gave as his realistic upside in his initial writeup).

You really need to re-read (or read, for that matter)a bunch of the supplemental stuff that’s been written about the methodology for this list if you want to have an actual conversation about this.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

few things more amusing then someone trying to condescend when they are wrong.

you stated that a .330obp/.420slg was a “low-end” projection, when kiley’s upside projection was .340/.440.

I correctly pointed out that obviously your projected lone was closer to a high end projection than a low end projection, at which point you went into your condescension routine.

as I pointed out, your assumptions for both obp and slg were off, and a .320/.410 line or thereabouts would be a reasonable interpretation of blake’s 55/50 score in today’s hitting environment. that would be kiley’s 50th percentile projection, not a low end projection. your projection fell somewhere in between the median and upside projection – which, obviously is closer to highend than lowend.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

Fair enough. I probably should have used .260/.320/.410 as the low end, with .270/.330/.425 as the median, and .280/.340/.440 as the high.

That’s a nice, neat, .320/.330/.340 wOBA, 100/107/114 wRC+, 0/+5/+10 “Offense” range of reasonable offensive outcomes.

So, with a 0 to +5 range of defense, it remains a 2.5-4.5 range of WAR outcomes, for a guy who’s going to start in AAA next year.

That’s a 60 FV player. Not a super “sexy” 60 FV player, but a 60 FV player nonetheless.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

… Prospects lists and rankings arn’t soley based on stats…. lol. If that were the case Steven Souza would be a top 3 prospect and Brain Johnson would be a top 20 prospect….

They are mainly based on tools, projections and what people think they will be able to do in the big leagues.

Most experts feel Swihart will be a .300 15hr switch hitting catcher with plus defense thatll also steal you about 10 bases…..

As a catcher, that would make him a superstar up with Posey and Lucroy.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

kiley’s projecting him for average D, not plus.

and projecting him for better numbers in mlb than he’s been able to put up in milb like you just did seems a bit of a stretch, at least to justify a top 10 ranking.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

@everdiso

Almost evey site has him for plus defense. MLB.com’s rankings grade him plus along with ESPN’s and I think Baseball America’s does too.

Kiley is he lowest on his defesne i’ve seen. However hes really high on his offense

Swihart is really growing into his own and has taken stides on defense and offense every season.

Sorry, but a .280-.300 hitting catcher with 15hr pop 10 stolen bases and average-plus defense is still a super star.

Every site and rankins has Swihart in their top 15 prospects

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

but bringing up Posey does illustrate my point nicely I think.

Age 22

AAA

Posey: 11.3bb%, 15.2k%, .349babip, .321avg, .191iso, 138wrc+
Swihart: 2.8bb%, 21.1k%, .321babip, .261avg, .116iso, 77wrc+

AA

Posey: 13.0bb%, 13.0k%, .349babip, .326avg, .213iso, 157wrc+
Swihart: 7.6bb%, 17.1k%, .337babip, .300avg, .187iso, 131wrc+

posey was a 5th overall pick with plus tools and plus performance across the board, who projected as an elite defender.

after that age 22 season, he managed to squeeze into the #9 spot on both BP and BA lists.

so Swihart cracking a top 10 with much less impressive tools and performance seems a little odd, unless this is just a weak year for prospects.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

@Everdiso

I dont think you realize Swihart has needed time to really adjust to every new level hes gone to. He struggled at his first taste at every level.

For example last year he played the bulk of the year in AA and had a steallar season, the once he was called up to AAA he was just “meh”.. So you have to take hes needed time to develope at every new stage with a grain of salt

Oh and I can tell you don’t know much about prospects becuase YOU ARE USING STATS TO COMPARE THEM!! STOP!!!

Brain Johnson : 13-3 2.13 ERA
Mark Appel: 3-7 6.91 ERA

So by youe philosophy Johsnon should be higher ranked than Appel right?

Hanley Ramirez (former top 10 prospect) never hit more than 7hrs in a year in the minors… Yet he went on to average 20+hrs in the big leagues…

By your philosophy, Hanley would have become a league average player right?

So please, stop using stats to compar prospects… Its absurd and ridiculous.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

you’re on the wrong website if you think stats are unimportant, and besides, I’ve mentioned his tools a number of times already.

as for Hanley, at Swihart’s age be was already a stud 4.2war mlber, so its “absurd and ridiculous” to bring him up.

Appel had a poor season last year, and right now his prospect status is hanging by an uber-toolsy thread – the potential for high 90s heat with 2 plus offspeed pitches. But if he has another year like last year, even those tools won’t save him.

Swihart’s year in AA was good, but not “stellar”, and he doesn’t have Appel-level tools to dream on.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

If anyone thought that, he’d be a Top 5, 65 FV prospect.

What Kiley (along with most experts) projects him for is .270/.330/.420 with solid defense, and about 10 steals. That’s a very good prospect, because he’s a catcher, but there’s a reason he’s in the 60 FV tier, and not the 65.

Everdiso, two things:

One, this is a pretty weak year for prospects, as it goes. I feel like there are usually another 5 or so 65 FV guys in any given year, which would bump Swihart down to the 15 range, which you would probably be much more comfortable with.

Two, read Kiley’s methodology piece. You’re doing exactly what he said not to do, by ignoring the tiers in favor of the overall ordination. Swihart is closer to the 28th overall prospect than he is the 8th overall prospect. You need to view him as being considered the best third tier prospect, rather than the 9th best overall prospect.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

as I just broke down abive, I’m not even sure swihart qualifies for that 60fv group, based either on kiley’s tool breakdown or on his production so far….let alone being ranked at the very top of that group.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

If you don’t think that Swihart is a top 30 prospect, the issue is that you do not understand how valuable solid-average catcher defense is.

Full stop.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

on the contrary, it seems like you are overvaluing it. average catcher defense with league average hitting still only gives you a ~2war player.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

Huh, I never knew that 2+1.25=”~2″.

No wonder I can’t where you’re coming from. I’m just not used to your higher form of math.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

@ everdiso

You are delusional. Please don’t comment on prospect listings if you belive stats justify where they are ranked. That pretty much sums up why you have zero knowlage on wha your are talking about

Swihart has been ranked in the top 10 on Kileys list, the top 15 on Law’s list (ESPN), and the top 20 on Callis and Mayos list (MLB.com). He is regrarded as the best catching prospect in all baseball. They are all prospect experts, you are a fool on a forum page. Ill take their words over yours.

Swihart projects to have a plus hit tool (should hit in the .280-.300 range ), average-plus defense thats improving, and average power and speed (15hrs and 10sbs). That is a superstar in the world of catchers.

The best Swihart comp is Lucroy whos a .280-.300 hitter that hits 15ish hrs and steal 10ish bases to go along with good D. Hes a 4-6WAR player…

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

@ everdiso

You are delusional. Please don’t comment on prospect listings if you belive stats justify where they are ranked. That pretty much sums up why you have zero knowlage on wha your are talking about

Swihart has been ranked in the top 10 on Kileys list, the top 15 on Law’s list (ESPN), and the top 20 on Callis and Mayos list (MLB.com). He is regrarded as the best catching prospect in all baseball. They are all prospect experts, you are a fool on a forum page. Ill take their words over yours.

Swihart projects to have a plus hit tool (should hit in the .280-.300 range ), average-plus defense thats improving, and average power and speed (15hrs and 10sbs). That is a superstar in the world of catchers.

The best Swihart comp is Lucroy whos a .280-.300 hitter that hits 15ish hrs and steal 10ish bases to go along with good D. Hes a 4-6WAR player…

Theres a reason why Philly has been demanding him in a trade for Hamles and the Sox have been rejecting…

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

last year:

Navarro 139gms, 98wrc+, -1rsb, +1.5rpp = 2.0war

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

lucroy posted elite bb% and isop his whole milb career, and is an elite defender. swihart does not project for any of that.

Lyman
Guest
Lyman
1 year 3 months ago

Jeff, whether everdiso is remarkably persistent in his discussion of this relatively innocuous matter or not, please don’t respond to decently solid points re: incongruity of performance, individual scouting grades, and aggregate scouting opinion listed *in this article* with appeals to authority, especially not authorities whose opinion we aren’t here discussing.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

@Lyman

-He used stats to comapre prosepcts

-The general consesus between prospect experts (Callis, Mayo, Kiley, Law,ect.) and fans of minor league prospects is the Swihart is a top 10-20 prospect and the best catching prospect in baseball who is extremly valuable due to his upside on offense and defense which is such a rare combination in todays catchers.

Im done.

everdiso
Guest
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

I understand what a top 30 prospect looks like, Swihart just isn’t one.

I keep referring to his 2014 AAA numbers and you keep failing to address them. .261/.282/.377 in 71 PAs. Plenty of chances to show was he’s got and he was exposed at the upper-levels. So far, his AAA numbers indicate he’ll be more of a AAAA/MLB guy rather than a star.

If the idea of ranking him highly is that average defense at C is worth more than 55/60 fielding in RF or 3B, then the list is extremely flawed, as there’s no evidence to support that conclusion.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

Goes to show how much you know about Swihart…

He needs an adjustemt period whenever reaching new levels in the minors. He has strugged in his first tastes in every level (A, AA, and AAA) but as he settles in as he gets more playing time

I would almost expect next year for Siwhart to put up his AA numbers in AAA as he will likley be their the entire year

everdiso
Guest
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

the list of prospects who have had a below 90 wrc+ in 70 or more PAs in AAA and found major league success is very, very small.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

@Everdiso

STOP FOCUSING ON 70 PA’s IN AAA!!!!!!!!!!

If you knew anything about Swihart, He needs an adjustemt period whenever reaching new levels in the minors. He has strugged in his first tastes in every level (A, AA, and AAA) but as he settles in as he gets more playing time

I would almost expect next year for Siwhart to put up his AA numbers in AAA as he will likley be their the entire year

everdiso
Guest
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

ignoring 70 PAs at AAA is ludicrous…my projection systems find that it’s more than enough data to project an average at best major league profile

again everyone keeps missing the point. If he’s a top 10 prospect then why is his D just average and why could he not produce above average results in AAA? the 132 wrc+ in AA is irrelevant as it has already been superseded by poor results at a higher level

the fact that everyone hates me shows me that I’ve touched a nerve and am onto something that others don’t want to admit

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

No, everyone hates you becuase you are a mindless troll. Im guessing a Redsox hater that cant stand the fact we have won 3 rings in the last 10 years and are built for even more with our future young core (Betts, Bogaerts, Rusney, Swihart, Owens, Rodriguez, Devers, Margot, ect)

Matt
Guest
Matt
1 year 3 months ago

Dude, you seriously throw some bizarre tantrum about the Red Sox in half the articles on this site. Do you honestly believe every respected talent evaluator out there is wrong and you’re the only one who can look at things objectively? The problem is you.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

Lol just stop, ive commented on like 3 articles on here.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

And how am i going against talented evaluators? Kiley has Swihart ranked #9, not me. It seems everdiso is the one going against the experts

Matt
Guest
Matt
1 year 3 months ago

Not you, comment threading is hard here

ESPN Comment Section
Guest
ESPN Comment Section
1 year 3 months ago

Whoa, how did I end up here?

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

Navarro was worth -5 runs offensively, spent 87 PA as a DH/PH, and only saw 900 innings at C. He’s not a good example.

We can make him into an actual league average hitter with 520 PA at catcher, though:

Add 4.7 runs to make his “Offense” equal to 0.
Subtract .5 runs to make his “Fielding” equal to 0.
Add 2.3 runs to get rid of his positional penalty for 87 DH PA.
Add 1.7 runs to give him a positional adjustment for 87 C PA.

That comes out to ~8 extra runs, were he truly league average offensively and defensively at C over that span, for ~2.8 WAR.

You can do the same thing with 2013 Russell Martin;
Subtract .3 runs to give him exactly 0 Offense.
Subtract 13.8 runs to give him exactly 0 Fielding.

That out to ~14 runs were Martin truly league average offensively and defensively at C over that span, for ~2.7 WAR.

So his realistic downside, in which he’s never better than average offensively or defensively, is 2.5-3 WAR. His upside, given by Kiley as .280/.340/.440 (+10 Offense), with above average (roughly +5) defense, is in the 4-5 WAR range, based off the value Lucroy’s 2013.

That’s pretty much your textbook 60 FV player.

Goldsteins dumb fedora
Guest
Goldsteins dumb fedora
1 year 3 months ago

Travis D’Arnaud got the exact same comps.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

everdiso @ 1:04, 1:09, and 1:15 is a fake, of course.

I understand he would want to make light of the AAA sample as meaningless, but it is obviously sillier to ignore it than to include it. all the samples are small samples at this point, which is why I looked at all of them, both separately and together.

and I never throw tantrums, so its a solid tell.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

“Do you honestly believe every respected talent evaluator out there is wrong and you’re the only one who can look at things objectively? The problem is you.”

actually yes – I can guarantee you that every year there are certain prospects whose hype feeds on itself and leads to a universal overrating of a prospect. happens every year, and I love trying to figure out which one it is.

I’m pretty happy with my recent myers snd gausman calls, and I’m feeling pretty good about this swihart one.

and its really not a red sox thing – xander and betts are/were absolute stud prospects and deserve all of the hype they get. (and I do the same with my jays when they have a guy like sanchez or drabek or wallace whose performance doesn’t justify the hype).

i’m pretty sure swihart does not deserve their hype, and is just riding their coattails.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

“So his realistic downside, in which he’s never better than average offensively or defensively,”

considering that as his “realistic downside” demonstrates a serious lack of experience in prospecting.

everdiso
Guest
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

the “everdiso” post at 2:42 was fake me.

obviously I don’t believe myself to actually be better at deciphering hype from real talent as compared to a legitimate prospect evaluater like Kiley. I’d have to be delusional to do that

that said the level of hype for Swihart is in crazy territory right now. As others have said, D’Arnuad had similar if not slightly better numbers and hasn’t worked out. So how can Swihart possibly pan out if a roughly similar player just recently has busted?

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

“His realistic downside vis a vis how Kiley has interpreted the information given to him” may have been a better way of phrasing it, but I already had a wall of text going, and I wanted to be as succinct as possible.

Assuming Kiley’s info is correct, I’d expect him to be between 0 and +10 on offense, and between 0 and +5 on defense. The low end of that (0/0) is 2.5-3 WAR, and the high end (+10/+5) is 4-4.5 WAR.

That’s what a 60 FV prospect is. I don’t love Swihart (and I like him less than I do a lot of the other 60 FV guys), but you keep letting the fact that he’s ranked 9th fool you into thinking that Kiley’s saying that he’s significantly better than a guy in the 20s.

This list says he’s closer to Barretto and Chance Sisco than he is to Buxton.

It also says that he expects Alex Jackson/Pederson/Soler to be worth around 15 runs a season more with the bat than Swihart, which sees about fair to me.

I agree that Swihart isn’t a superstar, but he’s a decent catcher with a good bet to be an above average hitter. That’s a 60 FV. Complaining that he’s 9th rather than 28th is just splitting hairs.

Personally, I’d much rather complain about Lindor not being considered a 65 FV.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

I think a big part of the issue with D’Arnaud is that he kept getting injured, which both hurt his defensive development (along with taking a toll on his rankings).

Funnily enough, Kiley actually puts the same grade on D’Arnaud going forward as he does on Swihart, so you actually agree with him that they’re similar players.

CoolWinnebago
Member
CoolWinnebago
1 year 3 months ago

we all understand everdiso has no idea what he is talking about.

Anyone who claims 70 AAA PAs (or 70 PAs at any level) is enough to say anything about a player is clueless.

lets move on.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

Cool Lester, I guess I just don’t want to live in a world where a projection of avg to dlightly above offense and defense, combined with a pedestrian milb track record, makes you a top 10 prospect.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

cool winnebago, you’re likely getting confused by one of my imitators at 1:04, 1:09, or 1:15.

that being said, we can’t throw out his AAA sample just because. it has to be included like all the rest.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

Cool Lester, you’re responding to an imitator.

the only point I made about D’Arnaud was that back when he was mashing AA and AAA at the age swihart is now, with projected potential plus D, he could barely crack top 20s.

D’arnaud’s performance since then has no relevance to this discussion.

I just can’t remember a less exciting top 10 prospect than Swihart.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

e, the issue remains that being a “Top 10 prospect” doesn’t actually mean anything, because actual prospect rankings are a tiered system.

Sickels has him as an A-/B+, which means he’s probably going to be closer to 30 than 10, but that’s still calling him a 60 FV guy.

MLB.com have him at 24, but they’re also calling him a 60 FV guy, they just have Gray, Lindor, Bundy, Bradley, Sano and Gallo as 65 FV guys (and Correa as a 70 guy, which I 100% agree with). He could just as easily be 15 (the highest 60 FV guy) as 34th (the lowest) on their list.

Everyone is calling Swihart a solid third tier prospect. Other outlets just have more second tier prospects than Kiley does, so he’s a little higher on this list than he will be on the others.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

No worries about the imitators, though. Anyone who does that is a jackass with nothing to contribute.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

fair enough. I’m skeptical that his power surge last year will last, especially since it came with a serious dive in bb/k rates. I’m also very suspiciius of the sudden massive improvement in his defensive reputation from last year (prob not a catcher longterm) to this year (could well be above avg). overall I don’t really see how last year was impressive enough for swihart to skyrocket up the rankings like this, especially since imo a key indicator like plate discipline took a nosedive.

and I think Kiley knew full well the implications of sticking swihart in the top 10 and at the top of the 60fv group, so I’m not quite ready to just dismiss it as meaningless.

as an olive branch to red sox fans – I think margot and devers look real good, and deserve the aggressive ranking.

heck, I might even call them your top 2 prospects, though maybe not just quite yet.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

See, I’d always heard before this year that Swihart was frustrating to watch behind the plate, because he had all the tools to catch, and was quite athletic, but hadn’t put it together mentally yet.

I wasn’t that surprised that he took a big leap forward defensively this year.

As for the implications…eh? The guy grew up a Rays fan and worked for the Yanks and O’s. I doubt that he’s in the tank for the Red Sox.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

he’s obviously not in the tank for boston. I’d never accuse any writer of intentionally doing that.

but sometimes certain FOs seem to create a warm fuzzy feeling that seduces independent talent evaluators into giving the benefit of the doubt, I think. right now the rox are getting it *higher ratings thsn the numbers might indicate), both with their pro and amateur scouting, so we’ll see if they end up deserving it. I think the evaluators were too high on the rox’ 2ndary prospects last yr (ransudo bradley cecchini workman barnes marrero etc), and wan’t surprised to see them dissappoint. which may be happening again this year.

everdiso
Guest
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

everdiso at 4:41 is fake

he’s now trying to get people to think I’m stupid by making spelling errors like “rox” twice instead of “sox”

you’re only reflecting poorly on yourself, my flaterringshadow

Matt
Guest
Matt
1 year 3 months ago

“the list of prospects who have had a below 90 wrc+ in 70 or more PAs in AAA and found major league success is very, very small.”

Josh Donaldson almost did it(and did do it at single A). Brian Dozier had a 70 WRC in 200 AAA PAs, got promoted and had a 63 WRC in 340 PAs the rest of the season. Jed Lowrie did. Erick Aybar almost did (93 WRC) and he’s averaged 3+ WAR for the last 6 years. JJ Hardy did it, but wasn’t a prospect at the time. And has put up 16 WAR in the 5 years since. Asdrubal Cabrera did it for 2 different teams. JD Martinez did it. Angel Pagan did it. Kurt Suzuki did it.

Anthony Rendon & Dee Gordon did it at AA.

Mike Trout looked good in 2009/2010, but in 2011 he spent 25 games at rookie-ball, 111 PAs, 45 WRC. He’s been ok since then though.

Lucroy’s already been mentioned as the sort of player Swihart could potentially become, and what’d he do in his age 24 season? 55 WRC at AAA, 70 WRC in the majors.

everdiso
Guest
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

you cant look at a player like Lucroy who had a fluke breakout and say that Swihart will be able to replicate that

Travis D’Arnaud had better stats at his level and still hasn’t done anything, that’s the much better comparison

guys like pederson and crawford had raw power/throw of 5 points better than swihart, yet were ranked below him. you can’t tell me that just by playing catcher he moves ahead of guys with half grade higher arms or raw power.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

yes, matt, you’re obviously right.

when you see an everdiso post an obviously wrong statement like that, rest assured its one of my adorable imitators, and not the real me.

just like this imitator above me right after your post, who is trying to imply that I haven’t given any credit to catcher D at all, even though I have from the start.

red sox fans for some reason are upset that I listed all of his milb stats instead of just ignoring the bad ones, so they think if they can exaggerate my emphasis on his AAA sample, that will somehow make them feel better about dismissing it altogether, and looking only at other small samples which look better. thus the string of fake everdisos arguing that we can draw conclusions from that AAA line, when obviously we can’t.

of course, we can draw better conclusions from his decent but not great milb stats in general, as I have.

Matt
Guest
Matt
1 year 3 months ago

OK, so the problem is definitely that you’re a wilfully ignorant troll then. He’s in the same tier, with the same FV, as Pederson & Crawford. Which of the three names appears on the list first makes no difference.

“lucroy posted elite bb% and isop his whole milb career, and is an elite defender. swihart does not project for any of that.”

“you cant look at a player like Lucroy who had a fluke breakout and say that Swihart will be able to replicate that”

Which is it? fluke breakout, or elite milb numbers?

Swihart’s first go at AA, his iso & wrc are higher than Lucroy’s were, though he was a year younger. Swihart has less walks, more SBs. They’ve both got a small sample of poor results from their first ~20 games at AAA.

As for d’Arnaud as a better comp, his ‘done nothing’ was what, 1.5 WAR in half a season last year? If Swihart can consistently do nothing like d’Arnaud did when recalled, that’s 127 wrc, 273/320/482, then he’s at least a 3 WAR player, and 60 FV sounds quite reasonable.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

“Which is it? fluke breakout, or elite milb numbers?”

Lucroy had elite plate discipline and power numbers in the minors, so that’s what I posted.

one of these hilarious imitators posted the fluke breakout post. you can recognize my actual posts by the real facts presented.

prior to his 2010 rookie year:

A: 11.0bb%, 14.2k%, .200iso
A+: 10.2bb%, 16.5k%, .187iso
AA: 15.4bb%, 13.0k%, .151iso

though I guess his power did dip in AA, and elite is a bit of a stretch for hia power overall. not for hisnpkate discipline numbers, though.

“in swihart’s first foray into AA, his iso & wrc are higher than Lucroy’s were, though he was a year younger. Swihart has less walks, more SBs. They’ve both got a small sample of poor results from their first ~20 games at AAA.”

remember I wasn’t claiming lucroy was a great prospect, but even then swihart does not have that kind of plate discipline or even close, and so far this AA stint isnthe onky time that Swihart has flashed the kind of power that lucroy showed consistently. and this AA stint is the only time swihart has come close to matching lucroy’s typical overall production at every milb stop. lucroy had about a 140wrc+ overal in the minors before his rookie year, while swihart is sitting around 110 at the moment.

“for d’Arnaud as a better comp, his ‘done nothing’ was what, 1.5 WAR in half a season last year? If Swihart can consistently do nothing like d’Arnaud did when recalled, that’s 127 wrc, 273/320/482, then he’s at least a 3 WAR player, and 60 FV sounds quite reasonable.:

again, that wasn’t me who said d’arnaud was a better comp. what i actually said about TDA is that he was absoluteky crushing AA and AA at Swihart’s age, with similar projected defensive value, and could barely crack top 20 lists. I never said swihart compared well to him, and I don’t think what d’arnaud has done since then has any bearing on swihart.

I apologize for the trolls. just assume the blatantly false posts are them, not me.

Kanye
Guest
Kanye
1 year 3 months ago

Everdiso’s pathological obsession with all things Red Sox is creepy, even by internet standards of creepy.

jpg
Guest
jpg
1 year 3 months ago

Everyone should know by now that everdiso is a noted troll and Toronto fanboy. The fact that people engaging him is comical. For everdiso, it’s mission accomplished.

Goldsteins dumb fedora
Guest
Goldsteins dumb fedora
1 year 3 months ago

Travis D’Arnaud was also supposed to be the next Buster Posey. D’Arnaud was actually had better in game power at the same age. These things arent exact, as much as Red Sox fans want you to believe.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

D’Arnaud also had only ever played 100 games in a season twice at Swihart’s age, and has only managed to complete that feat once more in the time since.

Grant
Guest
Grant
1 year 3 months ago

Wait, was this whole thing just because everdiso doesn’t realize that a plus (60) arm matters more at C than it does at other positions. Kiley said solid average fielder with plus arm, that makes for a plus overall defensive profile at C. According to Kiley, Swihart does not project to have an average profile in the field, he projects to be solid/good, combine that with above average hitting and you easily have a 3.5-4 win player.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
1 year 3 months ago

actually in his full write up on the red sox system, he labelled Swihart’s overall defensive UPSIDE as just “above average”, including his arm.

not great, just above average. and that’s his 75th percentile upside projection, not his 50th percentile median projection.

K
Guest
K
1 year 3 months ago

Maybe the best article on fangraphs in the last year followed by maybe the worst series of comments. That it began with everdiso talking about the Red Sox couldn’t be less of a surprise.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew
1 year 3 months ago

If Baez, alcantara, and Hendricks were still Cubs prospects, how would they rate?

Billy
Guest
Billy
1 year 3 months ago

Where’s Anthony DeSclafani? Did he just get lost in the shuffle when shifting from Florida to Cincinnati?

Paul
Guest
Paul
1 year 3 months ago

Really nice writeup. Encouraging to see the Red Sox have so many high end prospects left even after the graduation of Bogaerts and Betts. Swihart and Devers have ridiculous upside, so hopefully at least one reaches that.

Speaking of Bogaerts and Betts, how do you feel they’ll do this season? Bogaerts I think is really growing into his body now, and his raw power should translate to games a bit more. With Betts, I am worried that being put in RF will stunt his development and reduce his value, but Pedroia and Bogaerts clog up the middle infield, preventing him from playing there for the forseeable future.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

How will playing RF effect Betts development? Lol, if anything, it will encourage him to put on more muscle to increase his pop.

If Betts can reach his potential, he could be a .290-.300 15hr 30sb RFer that scores a lot of runs… That could make him a top 5 RFer

soaktherich
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

According to Mookie himself (via multiple Sox beat writers as he arrived to camp), he’s up to 181# from 155# when he signed. Considering his height (or lack thereof), that should be a good weight for him going forward.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
1 year 3 months ago

Yea I saw that report too. I don’t actually think he added 30lbs in the offseason though. I think his former weigh (155lbs) was when he was drafted and not from last years season… I could be wrong through

K
Guest
K
1 year 3 months ago

30 lbs of muscle in 6 months is close to impossible. If he gained 30 lbs, much of it wasn’t good weight.

Cracking Chang
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

Jeff, Mookie has gained 26 lbs. of muscle from when he was drafter in 2011.

Earl
Guest
Earl
1 year 3 months ago

Where would Mookie place on this list, if he were eligible?

Cracking Chang
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

after Bryant, ahead of Buxton… Mookie is that good

Nick
Guest
Nick
1 year 3 months ago

Thoughts on Francisco Mejia? What kept him off the list? Was he close?

Unapologetic Observer
Guest
Unapologetic Observer
1 year 3 months ago

Some Twins fans are going to freak out that Meyer is so low.

Martin
Guest
Martin
1 year 3 months ago

Was Bubba Starling even in consideration for the Top 200?

CrazyPants
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

Excellent write up. Great ranking. I have very few issues.

In future versions, can you add age and handedness? and would love to be able to sort by teams.

Thnx!

Katman
Guest
Katman
1 year 3 months ago

This is great. I love that this is published after a lot of other lists. This will challenge opinions I’ve formed about different players and undoubtedly change my rankings. Thanks so much.

Unapologetic Observer
Guest
Unapologetic Observer
1 year 3 months ago

Do you see Trevor May as a legitimate mid-rotation guy?

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

Awesome stuff. Thanks, Kiley!

Uh, I mean, Prospect X is way too low, so this isn’t a LEGIT list!

Unapologetic Observer
Guest
Unapologetic Observer
1 year 3 months ago

and you know that’s exactly what fans from about 30 teams will say, because random fans are better at this than someone who does this for a living :-)

Caveman Jones
Guest
Caveman Jones
1 year 3 months ago

Truly outstanding work Kiley, thank you.

oh Hal
Guest
oh Hal
1 year 3 months ago

I wonder if 30 percent or so of these are close whether that would be considered a success or even excellent.

Dave
Guest
Dave
1 year 3 months ago

Great list! You mentioned how oppo power for young guys is a hugely positive for young guys – is this what had you so bullish on Amed Rosario?

bookbook
Guest
bookbook
1 year 3 months ago

Patrick Kivlehan. In longtoss distance of the list? Top 1,000? Top 2,000?

FigWhip
Guest
FigWhip
1 year 3 months ago

Kivlehan isn’t built for prospect lists, even though he might be a useful player. He came to baseball late and doesn’t really have a position. He’s going to be Vinnie Catricala until he does it in MLB.

Darryl Mulder
Guest
Darryl Mulder
1 year 3 months ago

Is Miguel Castro a 45 FV/201 guy?

knic27
Member
knic27
1 year 3 months ago

Wow, great list!

If I could make one feature request it would be some kind of estimated ETA just so I could get a quick idea of who’s close and who’s 2020 when scanning the list.

soaktherich
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

Those are on the team lists, IIRC.

A different Mike
Guest
A different Mike
1 year 3 months ago

Hey Kiley, curious why Greg Bird fell below Lindgren and Mateo on this list, when he was above them on your Yankees list?

Dave
Guest
Dave
1 year 3 months ago

A) Who do you think has the better shot at shooting up the list next yr – Molina or Rosario?
B) Which Mets prospect not on the list do you think has a chance to jump on to the list next yr?
C) Surprised to see Thor’s FB rated not as a 7 or 8. Had been reading reports he was sitting at least 95 and regularly hitting 98+…..

@MaineSkin
Member
Member
@MaineSkin
1 year 3 months ago

How would you Shake up the list for a fantasy top 200? Sano higher? Mazara higher? Not as many SP?

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

This is flat-out incredible.

I have a Maikel Franco question. Is his first name pronounced “Michael”, “my-KELL”, or some other way? I’ve been thinking my-KELL but who knows.

soaktherich
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

I think it’s just like Michael is pronounced in English. Phonetic equivalent in Spanish. I guess his mom preferred it to Miguel.

ASK
Guest
ASK
1 year 3 months ago

http://philliesnation.com/archives/2012/01/prospect-nation-2012-19-3b-maikel-franco/

According to this article, it’s pronounced similarly to Miquel for what that’s worth.

David
Guest
David
1 year 3 months ago

A little surprised AJ Cole didn’t make the cut. I know people have differing opinions, but every other list has him in the top 100 and Baseball Prospectus has him at 30. Any reason you’re particularly down on him beyond what you wrote in the Nats writeup?

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

I can’t speak for Kiley, but as a Nats fan, Cole’s limited number of plus pitches and his weird minor league track record (good w/ Nationals, terrible in other systems) make him a bit hard to project. Only having two above-average pitches makes it hard to be a great starter.

Personally, I think he’ll be used in the Nationals bullpen to pitch the 7th/8th innings starting June 2015, then maybe stretched back out to start again next year. If the bullpen becomes A.J. Cole’s permanent home, he could develop similarly to Tyler Clippard.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

The legendary win Clipp-er!

Adrock
Guest
Adrock
1 year 3 months ago

He’s on the 45+ list at the bottom with Washington. So you can pencil him in somewhere between 150 and 200.

Steve L.
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

One thing I notice while looking at all these pitchers, is none of them have even “plus” command. Highest mark I see is 55.

So what I want to know is, who is a prospect that does have “plus” command?! With the follow up of, how is that not a thing? Or how is there not a top prospect who does?!

Wilhelm
Guest
Wilhelm
1 year 3 months ago
a eskpert
Guest
a eskpert
1 year 3 months ago

Command is probably the most important thing, as far as I understand anything about pitching. You can have all the stuff in the world and suck if you have no command (Steve Dalkowski). But you can have no stuff and good command and succeed in the big leagues (Moyer).

K
Guest
K
1 year 3 months ago

Moyer lacked velocity, but he had stuff. You probably can’t succeed in the bigs without any stuff. But you can succeed with great stuff and no command (e.g. Carlos Marmol).

a eskpert
Guest
a eskpert
1 year 3 months ago

Marmol has lots of command compared to some people.

Sam
Guest
Sam
1 year 3 months ago

Hey Kiley, I was wondering what downgraded Syndergaard from a 65 FV on the Mets list to a 60 FV here?

Ian
Guest
Ian
1 year 3 months ago

Which guys in the 45 section would you bet on to have a big breakout season and jump into the top 100?

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
1 year 3 months ago

The ones on my team.

But more seriously, you’d think the further away, higher risk guys probably have the best chance at a big jump.

Phillies113
Member
Member
1 year 3 months ago

This is awesome stuff! Thanks Kiley!

soaktherich
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

Obviously a tremendous amount of diligence and talent on display here. Great job, Kiley. The proof, of course, will be in the pudding, when we see in future years how spot on or way off you are with these rankings. It raises the question of their ultimate utility: is the purpose of this exercise simply to guess who will be a better pro (and if so, what’s the point, really?) or is it to establish some sort of market value for potential future trades? The fact that these guys are already property of the various big league teams would argue for the latter. Do pro scouting depts make these lists? And if so, are there other specific uses for them?

A person
Guest
A person
1 year 3 months ago

Any particular reason Syndergaard got downgraded?

Guest
Guest
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

Kiley mentioned earlier in the comments that people outside the Mets organization were a little more cautious about his breaking stuff.

Eminor3rd
Guest
Eminor3rd
1 year 3 months ago

Micah Johnson close to 200 at all?

rexx1
Member
Member
rexx1
1 year 3 months ago

I was thinking he’d certainly be mentioned in this list! He’s got potential to take the starting job at some point this season.

Guest
Guest
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

Thanks for the list, Kiley!

Is Keury Mella another of those guys in the 200-250 range?

Jason Lukehart
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

This is a pretty grim assessment of the Indians’ farm system. Lindor is higher on most every other list; do you think you’re more concerned about his bat than others are, or is there some other explanation?

With no one else in your top 100, and only two others in the top 200, it would seem you view the Cleveland cupboard as pretty empty right now.

Is there anything you can tell Tribe fans that might make them feel better about things???

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

He’s giving him a 60 bat, which is pretty in line with what everyone else has said.

It looks like he’s lower on the defense than the guys calling him a 70 fielder.

beatua
Guest
beatua
1 year 3 months ago

The most interesting name on this list to me is Lorenzen, wonder why his FV dropped from 60 to 50, that is a huge drop.

Mark
Guest
Mark
1 year 3 months ago

Kiley, Thank you so much for your tireless effort and quality of work here. My question has to do with the silent, yet not unimportant tool; make-up. I’m intrigued with prospects that are exceptional in terms of taking and implementing instruction. Does it make a 45AV guy with good make-up bump another guy with the same grade but lower make-up off the list? Can it turn a current bench prospect into a regular, or a regular into a star? This seems to at least factor into lesser prospects breaking out and/or surprising the community. What are your thoughts and obstacles in factoring this hidden tool into the current and future values?

Matthew
Guest
Matthew
1 year 3 months ago

No JaCoby Jones :(

I thought you were high on him after giving him plus power and run tools with an opportunity to stick at SS

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

Are there usually a few more 65 FV prospects? I feel like guys at the Swihart/Crawford/Pederson level are in the 15-25 range most years.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan
1 year 3 months ago

Where would you have Jurickson Profar ranked if he were still eligible?

Fanthead
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

Thanks again, Kiley, for the intelligent work. All the effort will cause hours of pleasure. Question: Was Michael Gettys ever a temptation for this list or do you see too many holes or question marks in him? I almost asked about Profar, too, fyi. Thanks.

libradawg
Member
libradawg
1 year 3 months ago

Kiley said earlier that we might as well pencil him in at 201. Of course, he went on to say that about another player, but the point remains the same: they have tools and although they do not qualify for this list, they might end up tearing through the rankings during the season.

Corey
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Corey
1 year 3 months ago

This is too loaded with comments for me to think this will ever get seen, but I’m going to ask anyway.

Why so down on Alen Hansen and to a lesser extent Devon Travis?

FigWhip
Guest
FigWhip
1 year 3 months ago

I respect that– in a vacuum– you like Kyle Zimmer a lot more than Dan Hultzen, but is there something of the pull of the recent going on that you would rank Zimmer sub-100 and Hultzen (who is a step closer to coming back with a full year of rehab and a little throwing) isn’t in the top 200. Interested to hear your thoughts. (Also, inconsequential edit on the DJ Peterson profile “Mexico”).

Steven
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Steven
1 year 3 months ago

Hultzen’s shoulder surgery is a lot scarier than the injuries Zimmer is going through.

John
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John
1 year 3 months ago

You missed completely leaving Michael Feliz off the list. His stuff competes with McCullers, and he stays healthier than Velasquez.

RacingPresidents
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RacingPresidents
1 year 3 months ago

Any word on Joe Ross? Did he just miss?

John C.
Guest
John C.
1 year 3 months ago

On KM’s Nationals writeup Ross was originally set up as a 45 FV guy just behind the two guys listed on the “honorable mention” chart above, so I think “just miss” is accurate. :)

redsox1
Member
redsox1
1 year 3 months ago

Really enjoy your work Kiley. There are a number of pitchers whose ranking was impacted due to concerns they’ll be reduced to a bullpen role (e.g. you already mentioned Sanchez and Meyer as possibilities in the comments above). We’ve seen lots of pitchers flourish when transitioned to a relief role (Wade Davis being an obvious recent example).
My question is, opportunity/circumstances on each parent club aside, of the pitchers ranked here that carry a significant possibility of becoming a reliever, could you give us maybe a couple names that really stand out for you as ones possessing the stuff/makeup to benefit the most from a transition to the bullpen at the Major League level? Thanks!

Rational Fan
Guest
Rational Fan
1 year 3 months ago

Where are all the guys that called me an idiot for having Urias ahead of Correa?

Well done on the list. I thought Spencer Adams could have been in the tier above his, but with his limited track record I can understand the lack of inclusion.

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

Hey, man. I just have a man-crush on Correa as big as yours on Urias.

Rational Fan
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Rational Fan
1 year 3 months ago

One thing I will add, is I can’t stand the Appel ranking on any of these lists. I understand that we are looking well beyond MiLB production when ranking a baseball player, but Appel is advanced and older, and he’s been nothing short of horrible as a professional. I personally think Appel’s bust rate has to be north of 90% at this point.

Myopic
Guest
Myopic
1 year 3 months ago

Apparently you only followed Appel’s rough stint in A+ last year and didn’t catch the 3.69 ERA/1.23 WHIP in AA or the 2.69 ERA/0.84 WHIP in the Arizona Fall League where he was named to the Top Prospects team.

Rational Fan
Guest
Rational Fan
1 year 3 months ago

Sorry if I’m not blown away by a 3.69/1.23 slash line for an advanced college arm at AA.

I don’t really care for Arizona Fall League results – I don’t give them much respect.

Appel has proven to be nothing more than inconsistently bad.

The Dude
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The Dude
1 year 3 months ago

Is inconsistently bad, good?

Clay Buchholz
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Clay Buchholz
1 year 3 months ago

“Appel has proven to be nothing more than inconsistently bad.”

Or he has proven to be nothing more than inconsistently good?

Rational Fan
Guest
Rational Fan
1 year 3 months ago

No, he has been different levels of bad. From kinda bad, to horrendous. Hence, inconsistently bad.

Unapologetic Observer
Guest
Unapologetic Observer
1 year 3 months ago

What about Burdi with the Twins system?

geo
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geo
1 year 3 months ago

For what it’s worth, Brandon Finnegan missed just one start at TCU last year, not several.

Steven
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Steven
1 year 3 months ago

Thanks for this Kiley. You seem to be higher on some younger players who haven’t played in full season ball yet (Ozzie Albies, Rafael Devers, Reynaldo Lopez, Amed Rosario) than some other major publications. Why do you think this is?

Coodle
Member
Coodle
1 year 3 months ago

Great work.

Mark W
Guest
1 year 3 months ago

I needed some practice with Tableau, so, I put together a visualization.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-top-200-prospect-list/

Mark W
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1 year 3 months ago
The Dude
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The Dude
1 year 3 months ago

Kiley-
What’s happened to Almora and Underwood since mid-October?

Mack
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Mack
1 year 3 months ago

Very fun read. It will be interesting to see this list in 3 or 4 years and how projections pan out.

I do think you have DJ Petersen a little low.

Spud
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Spud
1 year 3 months ago

Why does Sano get a FV of 60 and Bryant a 70 when their individual tools are almost identical? It would seem Sano has the same tools and will be younger making it to MLB. Is this a shift of defensive projection with Bryant maybe sticking at 3B, but Sano probably moving to 1B?

Cool Lester Smooth
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Cool Lester Smooth
1 year 3 months ago

Because Sano is coming off a year missed due to injury, and we still have to see how he responds.

The Death Merchant
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The Death Merchant
1 year 3 months ago

Injuries are like eyeballs. Everybody has two of them unless they start with less than two or they lose one or more afterward.

Ben
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Ben
1 year 3 months ago

Where Aaron Judge would be? Not top200?

Ben
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Ben
1 year 3 months ago

Sorry,I didn’t see it.

VIVA
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VIVA
1 year 3 months ago

Don’t you think Reese Mcguire could look way too low very soon?

His defense is excellent and has a very good swing. He’s not going to be a power hitter, but he’s going to make contact and get on. I’d bet on him being above average for the position and productive overall. He looks like he still has some physical growth to do (power is the last developing tool). Combine that potential as a hitter with the all-around athleticism, intelligence, defense and I think that’s a higher ceiling than Swihart, whom I like by the way.

Purchasing Power Parity
Guest
Purchasing Power Parity
1 year 3 months ago

Reese: FV 40 Hit 20/45 Game Power 20/35 Raw Power 35/45 Speed 40/35 Defense 40/50 Arm 45/50

Jorge Alfaro: FV 60 Hit 25/50+ Game Power 30/60+ Raw Power 60/70 Speed 50/60+ Defense 40/50+ Arm 65/65

Billy H
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Billy H
1 year 3 months ago

What are your thoughts on Adam Brett Walker of the Twins? Any chance to be a solid MLBer?

Bomok
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Bomok
1 year 3 months ago

Just out of curiosity. From what I’ve heard, Syndergaard has a wicked curveball, so when you say “Syndergaard’s weakness is a lack of a consistent plus secondary pitch”, do you simply… like his curveball less than others? or is there something else I’m missing?

Krusty
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Krusty
1 year 3 months ago

WRT Syn, I’m having some trouble with the review:

“Syndergaard also has been more open to using his changeup than Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler at the same stage, with the pitch flashing above average pretty consistently already. Syndergaard’s weakness is a lack of a consistent plus secondary pitch, but he does everything well and will get a big league look in 2015 with a good chance to reach his mid-rotation potential.”

These two sentences would appear to contradict each other. How can his changeup be “pretty consistently” above average when he lacks a “consistent plus secondary pitch”? Doesn’t the term “above average” mean “plus”, and if the change is “pretty consistently” there, wouldn’t the condition be met?

Of course, all of this is before we consider the practicality that if his curveball is also already “mostly above average”, it means that Syn has three pitches which are at least mostly above average (accepting that somehow “pretty consistently” for the changeup isn’t consistent enough) and there is a likelihood at least two of them will be working at that level in any given start. Granted, that doesn’t mean “consistent secondary” in the conventional sense, but I’m sure you take my meaning.

Brad
Guest
Brad
1 year 3 months ago

Offering you my non-expert thoughts: I think the focus isn’t on consistenty, but rather the definitions of plus vs. above average. Plus meaning 60-65, above average meaning 55. 55 grades make him a #4 probably, so that’s a weakness. You want a pitch or three that’s both plus and consistent to have K stuff.

Robert
Member
Robert
1 year 3 months ago

Kiley, as with all your stuff, I look forward to diving deep into this list (haven’t had time yet).

Would it be possible in the future to include age in the Player’s name/team/info? I realize it’s almost always in the Scouting Report, but I think it would be helpful for when you are taking a quick look.

yoanofarc
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yoanofarc
1 year 3 months ago

Where would you/will you have Moncada/Rusney/Yasmani?

Shaun
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Shaun
1 year 3 months ago

It seems like the sabermetric/internet baseball fan 10-15 years ago discounted scouting at least to some degree, even with minor leaguers and amateurs (at least college amateurs). Over the last 3-5 years it seems the pendulum swung more toward a deep respect for scouting among the sabermetric/internet baseball fans. Do you think there is a good balance now (between stats/performance and scouting/tools) or do you think we still need the pendulum to swing more toward one direction or the other at this point to get a good balance?

Bullet11-182
Guest
Bullet11-182
1 year 2 months ago

You have become my favorite writer over the offseason. Your articles are fantastic! No one I have read over the years has come close in terms of accuracy and insight as well as being able to cover a vast spectrum of topics. I usually stick to team specific sites because national writers tend to only know a little more than the casual fan and get by on rehashed click bate. The fact you can rival and beat team writers is astonishing. I don’t know how you do it, I’m even more thankful that it’s free. I typically spend 1-3 hours{even in the offseason(I have an addiction)} a day looking at Braves news, I can’t remember the last time I heard a national writer write anything I didn’t already know, but you are the exception. Thank you again.

J.R.
Guest
J.R.
1 year 2 months ago

As valuable as Swihart will be behind the plate in real life for the Sox, I contend that on this list (for ‘fantasy’ purposes) he should be switched with Kyle Schwarber. That guy should be an absolute monster offensively no matter where he plays on the field.

John Doe
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John Doe
11 months 29 days ago

After eduardo rodriguez pitched a gem last night in his first start i noticed that you guys have him rated very high as a prospect (right next to thor), whereas MLB.com has him down in the 60s i believe. I tend to trust you guys more, but why such a big difference?

PSM
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PSM
11 months 19 days ago

Kiley deserves our love for pushing Eduardo Rodriguez more than the rest of the industry (as far as I’ve seen). Kudos and thanks!

chris
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chris
9 months 19 days ago

Brinson and Frazier seem to be too low. Granted, this was over the offseason and you can’t project that kind of improvement, but Brinson’s been pretty amazing this year and Frazier’s finally figured out how to control his swing.

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