It matters what you’re looking for in a projection system. If you’re a fantasy baseball player (like me), then playing time estimates are paramount. Tom makes it quite clear that crowdsourcing the playing time estimates is better than any formula. I’d personally feel better using the fan’s playing time estimates and Marcel’s rate statistics but, if forced to choose, I’d prefer the fan’s rate stats over Marcel’s playing time estimates.

If you’re looking at projections solely to understand a player’s potential, I’d stick with Marcel and focus on AVG/OBP/SLG.

Rudy

]]>For the “rate stats”, your suggestion is decent enough that you can look at various components and use those in a regression. I can think of something like SB, if the fan knows a guy has a hammy, etc.

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Marcel’s playing time forecast is simple enough:

PA = 200 + 0.5*PA1 + 0.1*PA2

where PA1 was PA last year and PA2 was PA two years ago.

So, someone with 600 PA last year and 400 PA two years ago is forecasted at 540 PA this year.

This is simply an equation based on historical precedent. Basically, if you find the last 30 players to have done that 600/400 split, you’ll see his PA in the next year was an average of 540.

(Don’t hold me to that exact case though! I don’t guarantee the equation will work for every combination of PA. But, if someone wants to try this particular illustration, go ahead.)

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