The First Overall by Actual Record
Prior to the 2005 version, the Major League draft used to alternate picks between the American and National Leagues like they also used to do with home field advantage in the World Series before Bud Selig had to dip his meddlesome fingers in. There are some well-known times when the first overall pick did not go to the team with the worst record in the previous season.
The most recent was when the Padres got to select ahead of the Tigers in 2004 despite the 2003 Tigers having happened. Luckily for the Tigers, the Padres picked Matt Bush and the Tigers landed Justin Verlander. I don’t think they’re crying foul over that missed opportunity.
However, before that case was 2001 when the Minnesota Twins, despite having the fourth worst winning percentage in 2000, finished worst in the American League and it was the AL’s turn to go first. So the Twins had first dibs on the Mark Prior draft class. They still passed, electing to go with Joe Mauer. The Cubs, who should have picked first, probably would have gone with Prior, but who knows what happens with the Twins. Would Mauer have fallen to four? And what about the poor Pirates, who were bumped back from fifth – where the Rangers took Mark Teixeira – to eighth, where they took John Van Benschoten?
It’s easy to get dragged down the speculation hole of retroactive draft histories, so I want to pull back and quickly run down only the cases of the first overall pick. Here are the times since the mid-1960s that the first pick went to some team other than the one with the lowest winning percentage (using the current tiebreaker rule) during the previous season.
| Draft | 1st Pick | Worst Team | Drafted at 1 | Drafted at 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Padres | Tigers | Matt Bush | Justin Verlander |
| 2001 | Twins | Cubs | Joe Mauer | Mark Prior |
| 2000 | Marlins | Twins | Adrian Gonzalez | Adam Johnson |
| 1999 | Rays | Marlins | Josh Hamilton | Josh Beckett |
| 1998 | Phillies | Athletics | Pat Burrell | Mark Mulder |
| 1996 | Pirates | Twins | Kris Benson | Travis Lee |
| 1995 | Angels | Padres | Darin Erstad | Ben Davis |
| 1993 | Mariners | Dodgers | Alex Rodriguez | Darren Dreifort |
| 1992 | Astros | Indians | Phil Nevin | Paul Shuey |
| 1991 | Yankees | Braves | Brien Taylor | Mike Kelly |
| 1990 | Braves | Tigers | Chipper Jones | Tony Clark |
| 1988 | Padres | Indians | Andy Benes | Mark Lewis |
| 1987 | Mariners | Pirates | Ken Griffey Jr. | Mark Merchant |
| 1985 | Brewers | Giants | B.J. Surhoff | Will Clark |
| 1984 | Mets | Mariners | Shawn Abner | Bill Swift |
| 1982 | Cubs | Blue Jays | Shawon Dunston | Augie Schmidt |
| 1980 | Mets | Blue Jays | Darryl Strawberry | Garry Harris |
| 1978 | Braves | Blue Jays | Bob Horner | Lloyd Moseby |
| 1977 | White Sox | Expos | Harold Baines | Bill Gullickson |
| 1976 | Astros | Tigers | Floyd Bannister | Pat Underwood |
| 1975 | Angels | Padres | Danny Goodwin | Mike Lentz |
| 1974 | Padres | Rangers | Bill Almon | Tommy Boggs |
| 1972 | Padres | Indians | Dave Roberts | Rick Manning |
The Twins benefitted from the system in 2001, but the year prior were harmed by it when they lost a deserved shot at drafting Adrian Gonzalez. Instead the Marlins grabbed him before eventually sending him on an odyssey to Texas, San Diego and now Boston.
The pair of 1977 expansion clubs, the Blue Jays and the Mariners, both have had more than their full share of losing or gaining draft position. Their fates were quite divergent though. While the Blue Jays were denied an opportunity at Bob Horner, Darryl Strawberry and Shawon Dunston (all eventually good players), the Mariners jumped ahead in the Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. drafts and saw the Mets take Shawn Abner ahead of them in 1984, which was no big loss.
There is never one universal draft board and different teams, in different positions would have made different decisions. In some cases, switching the teams drafting one and two would not have changed their picks, but I think it’s fun to look at without getting too carried away. Is there anything more arbitrary than the requirement to alternate leagues in the draft that potentially swung the fortunes of two franchises more than the Mariners nabbing Griffey ahead of the Pirates?
Awesome work!
Just FYI, charts seem to get cut-off on the iPhone with the “mobile theme” turned on.. I can only see part of the first names on all those draft picks.
On my android, too. Please move the mobile mode on/off switch to the top of the article for ease of use.
Griffey and Bonds in the Pirates outfield? Youch.
George: I think I got it. How ’bout this? How ’bout this? We trade Jim
Leyritz and Bernie Williams, for Barry Bonds, huh? Whadda ya think?
That way you have Griffey and Bonds, in the same outfield! Now you got
a team! Ha ha ha.
If the draft didn’t alternate picks then, coincidentally, the Mariners would have drafted sixth in 1985 instead of seventh. The Pirates drafted sixth and selected Barry Bonds.
I have to say that the most interesting piece of useless information I’ve come across in a long time.
Griffey/Bonds Combined WAR (league/park effects excluded):
’89: 10.1
’90: 15.4
’91: 15.3
’92: 15.8 (Bonds last year in PIT)
So Bonilla at 3B and Vanslyke in RF?
No one would ever get a hit to the outfield.
On the other hand, pretty much everyone would get a hit to third.
Hard to believe the Yankees ever hard the #1 overall pick.
had to look up the distinction of the team awarded the #1 most since 1965…
Padres: 5
Mets: 5
Seattle: 4 (including 2 of the 3 “surefire” HOFers, although Arod might not make it for a while)
Tampa: 4
Every franchise will struggle, every team will finish close to last place. Even the Yankees will eventually finish with around the worst record in baseball again.
It to an extent parallels business: every corporation will die off eventually.
does anyone remember, were the dodgers on the hook for the full dreifort contract or did he retire before the end of it?
not responding to jcxy, butt
I really do not enjoy the B/r >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Man, the Jays got screwed three straight. Were they also last when it was their turn to pick first, or did they just end up last in the years where they wouldn’t get the first overall pick?
I don’t think the Jays have ever picked first overall. They got screwed those three times it looks like and never finished last the other times. I haven’t looked it up, but I can’t think who it was they would’ve picked first overall
I just looked it up. No, they have never picked first overall.
Screwed? – except that Moseby was a more valuable player than Horner ’83-’88, his 2 best WAR seasons far outdo Horner, and he had a significantly more valuable career. The Jays got rather screwed twice, but Moseby looks like the better pick.
This was ovlooked in the article, for whatever reason.
The best part about this article is the complete lack of any mention of the Cardinals =D
Imagine if the Dodgers got A-rod. Depending on how long they held onto him, they’d probably have some years of A-rod at short and Beltre at third. Looking at the Dodger infield now, I can only shake my head.
Griffey would have left Pittsburgh with Bonilla and Bonds. The Pirates might have had a better chance in the NLCS in ’90-’92, but beyond that the franchise would remain unchanged.