The Hotter Rock

Yesterday, Dave laid out the case for Troy Tulowitzki and the National League Most Valuable Player award. While Dave’s case went deeper than Tulowitzki’s September, there is a case to be made that he’s only the second best Rockies’ offensive player over the last 30 days, and that makes him the second best offensive player in the league over that span.

If one is willing to extend their arbitrary timeline beyond the design of a calendar and into the length of most months instead, then Carlos Gonzalez’s name perches atop their wOBA leaderboard. Gonzalez’s line lists at .436/.513/.792, whereas Tulowitzki sits at only .343/.412/.843. Their wOBA are .535 and .522, respectively, and their BABIP at .481 and .292. The last point is crucial since it tells us a bit about how the pair differ. Just about every other ball Gonzalez puts in play is going for a hit.

Tulowitzki’s ISO is an incredible .500 and Gonzalez’s is only .356. For perspective, Barry Bonds’ career ISO is .309 and his 2001 season (when he hit 73 home runs, not that anyone needs reminding) ISO sat at .536. Both are bringing the pop, with Tulowitzki bringing it in a 24-pack as opposed to Gonzalez’s one liter. Not too shabby considering Tulowitzki has double the amount of home runs that Gonzalez has.

One factor that should be noted is that Gonzalez has four intentional walks over the last 30 days. That would be two more than Tulowitzki, who bats after Gonzalez, which sort of goes against intuitive thinking. After all, Tulowitzki is the guy hitting everything into other galaxies while Gonzalez is only hitting balls out of this orbit. Those free passes do help Gonzalez’s wOBA, which skews his lead just a bit.

Nevertheless, the Rockies have the National League’s best hitter over the last 30 days. And they have the second best hitter, too. The order is mostly moot.




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8 Responses to “The Hotter Rock”

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  1. NEPP says:

    Both are great young players. Honestly, If I had to pick one, I’d go with Cargo but its no insult to Tulo to say that. Cargo has carried that team almost all season and stayed healthy so I’d pick him.

    I wonder how much Billy Beane regrets that trade…

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  2. Rich says:

    “. Just about every other ball Gonzalez puts in play is going for a hit.”

    So? Just because high Babips are often unsustainable, does not mean luck. Its possible that Gonzalez is dropping so many hits because hes hitting the crap out of the ball. A .356 ISO certainly supports that.

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    • joe says:

      I think the balls going over the fence may be a chunk of the BABIP delta as well (and why Tulo’s is lower)

      I understand the reasoning to exclude HR’s, but on a smaller sample size like this it may be interesting to look at this with HR’s included.

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  3. My echo and bunnymen says:

    For a CarGo vs. Tulo argument, there is no wrong answer.

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  4. AMusingFool says:

    Those [intentional] free passes do help Gonzalez’s wOBA, which skews his lead just a bit.

    Eh?

    Looking here to check my memory on the definition, I only see NIBB in there. Am I missing something?

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    • WY says:

      I was going to say the same thing. I didn’t think IBBs factored into wOBA.

      Also, about this:

      “One factor that should be noted is that Gonzalez has four intentional walks over the last 30 days. That would be two more than Tulowitzki, who bats after Gonzalez, which sort of goes against intuitive thinking.”

      My guess is that it’s purely a lefty-righty thing. Plus, Gonzalez had been
      “hot” for longer than Tulowitzki, at least at the beginning of this stretch, which might’ve factored into things as well.

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  5. Mark C. says:

    I’m beginning to think “Dave Cameron” is Billy Bean’s pen name.

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  6. Trebecois says:

    Wow a 25 year old SS and a 24 year old LF/CF/RF both with spectacular arms, good defensive instincts, good to great speed and on the same team add that to a 26 year old ace and 22 year old with 125 innings of 3.4 FIP and the Rockies should be good for years to come

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