The Logical Rangers/Padres Blockbuster

We’re about two weeks away from Opening Day, and with teams starting to get a sense for what they have — and more importantly, what they don’t have — we’re likely to see some trade talk pick up soon. Mostly, spring trades revolve around out-of-options guys or bench players who played their way out of an organization, but occasionally, teams find common ground on a major trade that reshapes their roster right before the season starts. Last year, the Padres were involved in just such a deal, acquiring Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton from the Braves right before the season started. And I think they should make another big trade before the season starts this year.

Over the last few days, talk has picked up that the Rangers have interest in acquiring Derek Norris, the Padres starting catcher. The Rangers don’t really have much catching depth, while the Padres have three catchers after their off-season of Christian Bethancourt, so a deal between the two teams makes a decent amount of sense. But rather than making a small deal in which the Rangers pick up Norris for some mid-level prospect or two, there’s a case to be made that the two sides should expand the talk and make a legitimate blockbuster.

Evan Grant noted this morning that the two teams have room to expand the Norris conversations, noting that the Padres have a couple of young pitchers who would appeal to the Rangers. And realistically, the Rangers probably need another quality starting pitcher more than they need a catcher, since they’re talking about having Jeremy Guthrie break camp as their #5 starter. Getting both Norris and a quality starter in the same deal could significantly improve the Rangers odds of winning the AL West in 2016.

And thankfully, the Rangers have surpluses of their own, and at positions that the Padres have glaring holes. Specifically, they don’t really have a role for slugging third baseman Joey Gallo, especially given that they’re in the process of trying to sign Adrian Beltre to an extension. They did Gallo time in the outfield a year ago, but then they traded for Josh Hamilton and signed Ian Desmond, blocking off left field as well. Gallo could move to first base, where Mitch Moreland isn’t an overwhelmingly strong incumbent, but Gallo’s athleticism would be somewhat wasted at the position, and it’s not entirely clear that he’d be an upgrade in the short-term.

The Padres, though, could definitely use a third baseman. They have Yangervis Solarte and Cory Spangenberg available to split second and third base, but both of those guys probably fit better as part-time players than everyday guys, and given that the Padres should be building towards the future, they could use a guy with Gallo’s upside. And even if they decided that they’d rather have Gallo in the outfield, they have room for him there too, as the current Jay/Upton/Kemp OF isn’t exactly something to write home about.

So let’s see if we can help A.J. Preller strike a deal with his old boss, allowing the Rangers and Padres to make a bigger deal that helps both sides.

Among the pitchers San Diego has available, Tyson Ross is the most valuable, combining high-level performance with two more years of team control. Andrew Cashner is probably next in line in value, providing upside based on his strong arm, but with performance concerns and a lack of control beyond 2016. James Shields could have some trade value at the deadline, but right now, his contract is probably not that easy to move, and he probably wouldn’t be a big part of these conversations.

If the Rangers were willing to put Gallo in play, Ross would probably have to be in the deal as well; one of year of Cashner and three years of Norris probably aren’t worth surrendering a top 10 prospect, even one without a clear path to a job in Texas and with a lot of risk, given Gallo’s contact issues. The Rangers have been burned by trading this kind of player away before, as they watched Chris Davis blossom in Baltimore, so they shouldn’t part with him easily.

But getting Tyson Ross would be worth the risk. He’s something like a +4 win pitcher, worth approximately $60-$70 million over the next two years, and yet he’ll cost about $25 million over that span instead. He’s a hugely valuable asset, especially for a team like the Rangers who are already pushing their budgetary limit, and are going to have to be creative with their expenditures for the next few years. When you add in Norris’ value, giving up Gallo becomes a bit more palatable, especially if the Padres are willing to pick up some of the salary to help Texas make a move like this under their 2016 payroll.

In fact, I’d suggest that the Padres should be aggressive in trying to use this deal to buy some additional young talent from the Rangers. If Texas’ payroll situation is as tight as Grant has made it sound, the Padres may be able to get a legitimate second piece in a deal where they picked up most of the 2016 salary due Ross and Norris. With Texas pushing in on the present, helping them make a payroll-neutral upgrade could put the Padres in a position to extract a premium return.

So that’s my suggestion. Gallo and a second solid prospect to the Padres for Tyson Ross, Derek Norris, and the Padres cover the costs of both players in 2016. The Rangers add a potential four or five wins to their ledger this year, while the Padres get a guy whose power will definitely play in Petco, and could turn into a franchise cornerstone if he makes the necessary adjustments. And because Gallo could step right into San Diego’s starting line-up, this would be an easier sell to management and the fan base, especially if Gallo has a big rookie year.

The easier path is to just make a more minor trade for Norris, but the Rangers and Padres have things that can help each other, and there should be a larger deal here that makes sense for both sides.



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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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Jeff UK
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Jeff UK
2 months 11 days ago

I think the Braves should jump right in and get one of the catchers AJ and some other pieces over there to get another quality young bat in the fold. It would be tough to give up Tehran but the performance and contract similarities to Ross it might make the most sense.

RMD4
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RMD4
2 months 11 days ago

Yeah, they should get Bethancourt.

Im with Busey
Member
Im with Busey
2 months 11 days ago

What?

Serbian to Vietnamese to French and back
Member
Serbian to Vietnamese to French and back
2 months 11 days ago

I think that the soldiers need to jump and catch AJ and the other characters have staff of different quality of the child and the community. It would be difficult to give Tehran, but the performance of the same “and” the contract with Ros to make the most sense.

genghiskhanull
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genghiskhanull
2 months 10 days ago

This never gets old.

bpd
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bpd
2 months 9 days ago

Right. Nothings better than publicly shaming someone. Why? Why is this acceptable behavior. It’s bullying and really has no place in public discourse. What’s gained other than making oneself feel better at the expense of another actual human being?
Arguing is fine. And if someone becomes unreasonable, absolutely they open themselves to attack. But just default mocking people is a form of aggressive dickishness that isn’t appropriate anywhere in our culture.

If you wouldn’t say that to someone over a dinner table don’t say it anywhere. Just because you aren’t there to see the consequences of your actions doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

Ffs be decent.

Jeff Luhnow
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Jeff Luhnow
2 months 9 days ago

And it is not available at all. Wisdom with the threat of terrorism, all good achchaptble is quick aoaaor office and believe.

Good tantaza songkaran Ricaiapt dakash column goes solo, the Group of patients with a Hello.

Transachon doors and cognition.

He began two years, you have to wait a response

Shawnuel
Member
Member
Shawnuel
2 months 11 days ago

I agree with Dave’s idea. If the Rangers don’t want to give up that much, Austin Barnes is making a lot of noise in Dodger’s camp. Perhaps A.J. Ellis is available?

Dan Greer
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Dan Greer
2 months 11 days ago

AJ Ellis is hardly an upgrade. Barnes would be a possible trade target though, as it seems unlikely that he’ll unseat Grandal anytime soon.

Dooduh
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Dooduh
2 months 11 days ago

This is a pretty cool idea. I could see it happening in some form.

deadmanonleave
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Member
deadmanonleave
2 months 11 days ago

Be a great and brave move…. Preller may have looked an absolute clown with the Kemp trade a year ago, but he could redeem himself with something like this. Although, imagine if Dave Stewart gets a call from both about a three way deal? That’d be entertaining.

jdbolick
Member
Member
2 months 11 days ago

I understand that he was tenth on Baseball America’s list, but Joey Gallo is not your ordinary top ten prospect due to his extremely high bust potential. In the history of major league baseball, no hitter with at least 100 plate appearances has ever posted a worse contact rate during a season than Joey Gallo. And in addition to the huge strikeout totals, Gallo has been much worse than average for infield flies both in the major and minor leagues. That’s an unprecedented percentage of easy outs. Given that his defense at third is only passable rather than a plus, there’s way too much risk in his profile for him to be worth what you would typically associate with a top ten prospect. I had him #34 in my own rankings and even that was probably too high.

cornflake5000
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cornflake5000
2 months 11 days ago

Even worse than Baez?

jdbolick
Member
Member
2 months 11 days ago

Significantly worse, yes.

tz
Member
tz
2 months 11 days ago

Baez (projected for a 28% K rate in 2016) and Gallo (projected 36-40% K rate) are night and day. These are consistent with both their small MLB samples and their previous minor league stats.

Baez has an upside to be somewhere between Soriano and Stanton as a hitter – solid contact with a K rate safely in the twenties. If, and only if, Gallo makes some major adjustment while he’s still this young, he may get his K rate down to the low 30’s.

And here’s a list of the all time high career K rates, minimum 1000 PA:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1915&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

Gallo’s (healthy) upside is a slightly better Chris Davis, with the possibility of threatening 60 HR at his peak if he’s playing in a hitters park. But his (healthy) downside is a very poor man’s Branyan, with K rates over 40% and a batting average under the Mendoza line.

If the Rangers are smart, they’ll either (a) trade him to someone who’s super enamored by him, or (b) let him refine his game in AAA for this year. They really shouldn’t expect him to be a positive value player as a platoon/mix LF for 2016.

jdbolick
Member
Member
2 months 11 days ago

I would argue that Gallo’s ceiling is a poor man’s Chris Davis, as Davis never had anything like Gallo’s contact issues and also has a vastly lower infield fly rate. That being said, I imagine that giving up on Davis colors the Rangers’ thinking on Gallo.

tz
Member
tz
2 months 11 days ago

If his contact and pop-up issues aren’t fixable, a poor man’s Chris Davis is indeed his upside. I’m only giving him the benefit of that doubt because he’s still just 21, but he needs to get this fixed ASAP, and should stay in AAA until he’s at least gotten the K rate a lot lower.

deadmanonleave
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Member
deadmanonleave
2 months 11 days ago

Not sure it’s the way to run a franchise, but I’d be way happier betting on someone like Gallo and mid level prospects than throwing silly money at aging veterans.

aaronsteindler
Member
aaronsteindler
2 months 11 days ago

I was thinking the same thing. I just think that although Beltre has been a fantastic player, he’ll be 37 next month, and you never know what could happen to him from this point forward. Not worth an extension beyond 2 yrs. It might be a better idea to just stand pat with Gallo; the Rangers are going to need him in a few years when their current team ages.

kldub4life
Member
kldub4life
2 months 10 days ago

Yeah but for a team which has never won a WS and is in a win now mindset acquiring a solid catcher and a pitcher who would likely give them the best top 3 rotation in the AL should be quite tantalizing.

deadmanonleave
Member
Member
deadmanonleave
2 months 11 days ago

I’d go the opposite from a Rangers point of view. I think you go Beltre or Gallo and if it’s Beltre you trade and get what you can. If you lose Gallo and gain a Norris and Ross, as an M I’ll be more worried than I am now!

JediHoyer
Member
JediHoyer
2 months 11 days ago

I dont see how this would interest the padres all that much. Gallo surely fits best in a corner OF spot long term and they just gave up on a similar albeit older and worse version in ryner liriano. Also they have no immediate need as a non competitive team so mazara or brinson would be a more likely center piece. Second to eat all of the money on ross and norris would certainly mean its a gallo and brinson package and not just a good secondary piece. Remember shark and hammel cost russell and mckinney and ross and norris is better than shark and hammel in both years of control and talent.

domxbomb
Member
domxbomb
2 months 11 days ago

the Rangers should certainly see what Gallo’s market is, as a boom or bust prospect with a lot of hype, his highest trade value could be right now. i mean how close does Gallo get for Harvey or Carrasco or Jose Fernandez?

Dan Greer
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Dan Greer
2 months 11 days ago

Not close at all.

Avi24
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Avi24
2 months 11 days ago

Sadly Gallo’s contact issues would probably not be a good fit for NY. If he improved his contact rates then maybe. Although Harvey, Fernandez and Carrasco would all still require a bit more than Gallo alone.

output gap
Member
Member
output gap
2 months 11 days ago

Miami asked for Seager, Urias and De Leon plus 2 more meaningful minor leaguers when the Dodgers inquired on the Price of Fernandez. Suffice it to say, Gallo isn’t enough.

JediHoyer
Member
JediHoyer
2 months 11 days ago

I would imagine gallo could fetch a kyle hendricks at most. High floor, low ceiling starter with a little less team control than himself. Even hendricks might be worth more but im trying to picture a pitcher similar to him. Maybe a julio teheran.

tz
Member
tz
2 months 11 days ago

Joey Gallo for Jonathan Gray. So many reasons to do this trade:

1. Gray leaving Coors!

2. Gallo going to Coors!

3. Just great alliteration all around – Gray would replace Jeremy Guthrie in the Texas rotation, while Gallo would prevent the Rockies from signing Joey Gathright as their RF of the future.

ProfarMVP
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ProfarMVP
2 months 11 days ago

Post of the year.

enriquewilson
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enriquewilson
2 months 11 days ago

This is a brilliant idea.

Slappytheclown
Member
Slappytheclown
2 months 11 days ago

Good idea, though as others have said gallo wouldn’t be my first target. I’d ask Mazara and Brinson first, then maybe Profar? Dillon Tate? Number of ways this could go.

The Sultan
Member
The Sultan
2 months 11 days ago

Wouldn’t it make more sense for them to make a deal surrounding Profar?

With Odor as the next big thing and Andrus having to play because of his boat-anchor contract, he truly has not role on the team. San Diego has Alexei Ramirez (ugh) and Javy Guerra is a long ways away. Seems like more of a need and a premium position.

zwibi
Member
zwibi
2 months 11 days ago

Why would the padres trade a stud pitcher like Ross for a prospect that has that kind of injury history. Profar wouldnt upgrade their team significantly and one would have to be out of their mind to not think they could get more for Ross, let alone Ross + norris.

Anon
Member
Anon
2 months 11 days ago

I love fangraphs but articles like this just leave me scratching my head. Tyson Ross is an actual MLB pitcher. Joey Gallo is an oddity whose ceiling is something less than Chris Davis and probably lower than that.

Ross had the 16th best WAR last year and is projected for the 24th best WAR last year. Meanwhile, Gallo is projected to strike out roughly 40% of the time. Number of players who have struck out 40% in a season of 250+ PA? Zero. Highest K% by a player who accumulated more than 2.0 WAR? Mark Reynolds in 2009 with 33.7%. (There have been a few guys at exactly 2.0 WAR with higher K% than that.) Gallo isn’t going to sniff 33.7% and for that matter, how has Reynolds’ career panned out?

So the Rangers are going to hand over a top 25 pitcher AND an actual MLB catcher for a total gamble who probably is never going to make enough contact to be a real major leaguer and another prospect who is a total gamble? AND THEY’RE GOING TO THROW MONEY INTO THE DEAL AS WELL?

Sorry, don’t see it.

Anon
Member
Anon
2 months 11 days ago

Oops, rather than “24th best WAR last year”, I of course meant this year

Anon
Member
Anon
2 months 11 days ago

Oops #2- said Rangers the last paragraph when I obviously meant the Padres

MLB Rainmaker
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Member
MLB Rainmaker
2 months 10 days ago

Yeah, agree. I don’t see the value in Gallo with that obscene K rate….he’s the type of player that doesn’t make the conversion from AAA to MLB.

DukeDean
Member
DukeDean
2 months 9 days ago

Joey Gallo = Brandon Wood 2.0

Johnston
Member
Member
Johnston
2 months 11 days ago

I don’t think Gallo is worth nearly as much as the author thinks he is.

ProfarMVP
Member
ProfarMVP
2 months 11 days ago

Norris and Ross might constitute a good appetizer for a package if you are talking about Gallo. At some point Preller would need to talk about what’s for dinner.

kldub4life
Member
kldub4life
2 months 10 days ago

I personally agree on Gallo. I think his chances of being a complete flop are higher than any top 10 prospect ever.

However the fact he still has the prospect rating let’s you know some teams think very highly of him. The question is who?

Glevin
Member
Glevin
2 months 10 days ago

It is odd how people are using Chris Davis as a comparison as a negative. Davis has been a top-10 hitter in baseball in two of the last three seasons and is averaging almost 4 WAR/year since joining the O’s. Gallo is viewed generally as a better defender than Davis so that would give him more value as well. The point is that there aren’t a lot of prospects with Mike Trout or Bryce Harper upside so Chris Davis upside is actually a fantastic prospect.

JediHoyer
Member
JediHoyer
2 months 10 days ago

Davis is actually an above average defender at first and passable in the corner of. Gallo is probably roughly the same in the corners but a chance he can play 3rd for a few years. Baserunning is an area gallo is currently better but he is still at peak speed. There is also probablg a 10% chance he is a chris davis with less contact and a 40% chance he is mark reynolds with more power and less contact. So yes the potential is great but the chance of reaching it is essentiallyvthe sane as an a ball prospect because of the areas of weakness

azcm2511
Member
azcm2511
2 months 10 days ago

Seriously???? A proven #2/3 starter AND a starting catcher in the middle to upper half of the MLB catcher group for a prospect? AND you want SD to foot the bill for them???? Not sure what you are smoking but you need to lay off of it for awhile!

sgtjunior
Member
Member
sgtjunior
2 months 10 days ago

Just before Chris Davis they traded Adrian Gonzalez too. Sounds like a winner

tz
Member
tz
2 months 10 days ago

Well they should have known better on Gonzalez, who had the makings of a top all-around hitter, and they just flat out sold low on Davis. Gallo is a high-upside/high-risk lottery ticket.

Think of Deal or No Deal with the $500 thousand, $5 thousand, $50 and $1 suitcases showing. If you can use about $100 grand right now, and the dealer offers it, you don’t say no because of the (slim) chance the suitcase holds $500K. And with the Rangers in the Yu/Beltre/Hamels/Fielder win-now window, and no place to put Gallo, they should see if he can get him that useful extra piece for today.

dl80
Member
dl80
2 months 10 days ago

In a true game theory situation, the true value of each suitcase is about $126,000. So a real mathematical offer should be somewhere south of $100,000, maybe around $75,000. I realize that on the show, the dealer often offered far more than would be expected from an actual ruthless mathematician whose goal was saving money from the expected payouts.

With a %75,000 offer, I think you’d be justified holding out one more turn. There’s a 75% chance of a non-$500k suitcase being opened. Even if it were the $5000 one, your offer is now going to be much higher. The expected value of each remaining suitcase is now about $167,000 and the offer should be somewhere around $140,000 given the fact that the “bank” should really not want to pay out $500,000. You’ve doubled your money against a 25% chance of losing it all (mostly).

It depends on your individual circumstances, but I’d say you wait one more round and then take whatever offer they give you. At that point, you’re potentially going to get a 50% higher offer (maybe $225,000) with a 33% chance of going bust.

tz
Member
tz
2 months 10 days ago

I agree with your assessment on the Deal or No Deal board. But for the point I was trying to make, I guess my analogy was flawed.

What we really need to compare is a payout of $X in much needed cash right NOW vs. getting that suitcase 5 years from now. If $X can get you a 1-2 WAR pitcher to replace Jeremy Guthrie, you give up the suitcase, even though there’s a 25% chance it could pay off big.

Marver
Member
Marver
2 months 10 days ago

While the author has considered the Rangers’ perspective in great detail, the Padres’ chief objectives aren’t really considered. More than anything, the Padres appear focused on saving cash in 2016 in order to significantly exceed their 2016 international signing bonus pool:
– The Padres actually took a “show of hands” poll at their social media summit to see who would favor such a tactic.
– Padres President Mike Dee has spoken about how the payroll in 2016 is fungible, with respect to their amateur draft and international signing pools.
– Other outlets (Baseball America) have reported the Padres are set to significantly exceed their bonus pool.
– The international free agent market is where Padres new GM, A.J. Prefer, cut his teeth. If the Padres didn’t bring in A.J. to do that, they made an odd selection.

That $12MM you’re throwing into the deal to get this done is just as important to the Padres as it is the Rangers. It’s basically the entire amateur draft and international bonus pool combined. The Padres want that money just as much as the Rangers do, if not more.

More than anything, when your ownership is ripping down Tony Gwynn’s jersey number from atop the Batters’ Eye in order to make room for a neon Sycuan Casino advertisement, you can be sure they aren’t just going to throw $12M into a deal that doesn’t make them (or give the appearance of being) competitive.

In other words, you can be sure that the move both a) doesn’t align with what currently makes sense for the Padres, b) wouldn’t be well-interpreted – salary dump – by the fans, and also c) isn’t what fans want anyway: a Twitter poll with over 100+ Padre fan correspondents rejected this deal at a 73% rate.

ProfarMVP
Member
ProfarMVP
2 months 9 days ago

Suppose 73% of all Padre fans don’t like the notion of the deal. Who cares?

What is more relevant is how fans feel a week *after*. I can attest to how the Ranger fan base was mystified and appalled at the notion of an Ian Desmond acquisition. Fans felt the money and 1st round pick were too much.

Five days later most of the fanbase had come around and were into the idea. Fans are as fickle as today’s baseball score. Show highlights of Gallo’s 3 spring home runs and you’d have them throwing their money down to watch.

Joey Gallo can bring fans to the ball park like nobody. As crazy as it sounds he has as much power as Stanton. And baseball is all about hope. Gallo is hope in a bottle.

It would be an easy sell for the Padre front office with fans. A huge win in selling tickets.

I just don’t know if as a Ranger fan, I’d be that crazy about such a trade.

realitypolice
Member
realitypolice
2 months 8 days ago

The Padres draft pool alone is a bit over $12M, David. When you look at the Cuban kids they’re pretty much locked in on, they’re probably at $12M on those bonuses alone, even before you figure the Venezuelans who are already on handshake agreements and the penalties for being over their bonus pool.
Not sure where you come up with the “basically the entire amateur draft and international bonus pool combined” nonsense, but they could realistically spend $50M all-in on acquisition of amateur talent.

MLB Rainmaker
Member
Member
MLB Rainmaker
2 months 10 days ago

I guess I don’t get why the Padres would want Gallo. He profiles as the type of player that can’t make the jump to the MLB level because of the K’s. Likewise, why would Texas care about giving him up? They traded away Mike Olt (after Davis left) in the Garza deal, remember he was a Top 100 prospect…so I don’t think they’d show any hesitation to do the same with Gallo.

To me, the pieces that make sense for both sides are Profar and DeShields, likely for Norris, a SP, and some chunk of dead money (Upton? Kemp?).

Tanned Tom
Member
Tanned Tom
2 months 10 days ago

Wow this is a terrible idea for the Padres. First they should keep Ross as he could be part of a playoff team’s future. Second, trading Norris alone should net them more than a failed (to date) prospect. Third, paying both salaries to acquire such a failed prospect is absolutely laughable. It’s like swapping a 3 year old VW Jetta and a 10 year Acura TL for a 30 year old Yugo with flat tires and offering to pay the shipping costs as well. Get real!
And no one wants Profar or Andrus either. The Rangers are not a good match because they are not a one player away team. They are not in the position to trade any player any rebuilding team might want. A better scenario would be to follow the Kimbrel-trade parameters. Deal with a veteran, win-now team that has young talent that might be blocked, and a strong need for a particular type of player. Shields makes more sense for such a trade than thought, with Norris as the second option.

linus
Member
linus
2 months 10 days ago

I’ve softened my position on Dave Cameron since I started listening to the podcast. But this is a classic, only-in-OOTP Dave Cameron Trade Proposal.

Nats Fan
Member
Nats Fan
2 months 8 days ago

I have to agree that this makes no sense at all for the Padres! Ross is a borderline Ace. Who trades a near Ace pitcher with years left for a guy who strikes out 40% of the time? Top 10 prospects fail to achieve any kind of worthiness often enough and the high K guys are more likely to fail. I wouldn’t do that trade straight up in any league. You are trading a surefire 4 War pitcher with some possible upside for a guy with at best 4 WAR upside in a few years. So, you can bench a guy worth nearly 2 WAR. Then you through in another 2 War catcher with 4 war upside, cash, and get a minor prospect in return. Terrible idea! This is snake oil at its finest!!

Nats Fan
Member
Nats Fan
2 months 8 days ago

I think I would take the over on your Padres projection. I think the Padres have a rotation that is top 5 in the NL. A Jay/Upton platoon in center could easily field and hit at above average rates. Jabari Blash is a solid 1 War in Left. Kemp is Kemp overpaid but not useless. Will Myers is still a sleeper and him making big steps forward now that he is playing a low skill defensive position seems somewhat likely. The pen is weaker than some in the setup and closer rolls, but overall seems deep. Solarte will be worth 2 WAR. Spangenberg 1 WAR. 80 wins seems like a pretty good projection. With a just little luck they are a possible wild card contender

realitypolice
Member
realitypolice
2 months 8 days ago

Even Dave Stewart thinks this is a stupid trade proposal.

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