The Manny Effect
Many years ago, when Jacobs Field was shiny and new, I was friendly with this girl from Cleveland. Everyone in her family was a big Indians fan, and Manny Ramirez was just coming into his own as one of the greatest right-handed hitters the game would ever see.
Whenever the Indians were on TV, the whole family would gather around to watch. When Manny would do something particularly amazing, everyone would go nuts. “Manny Ramirez! Manny Ramirez!”, they’d all yell. The family’s King Charles spaniel was your typical cute little lap dog, rarely making noise or bothering anyone. But every time anyone exclaimed “Manny Ramirez!”, the dog had the same reaction: YIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIP
The Tampa Bay Rays will sign Ramirez to a one-year, $2 million deal. His ex-Red Sox teammate Johnny Damon gets a one-year, $5.25 million contract, with a $750,000 attendance-based incentive clause. Whether these deals work or not, the cacophony of reactions–strongly negative or strongly positive, but virtually none in between–can roughly be summed up this way: YIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIP
Let’s start with the negative.
Both Ramirez and Damon are, by baseball standards, old. One’s 38, the other’s 37. The snark about going after Kevin Millar, Trot Nixon and Curtis Leskanic to complete the 2004 Red Sox reunion doesn’t come from nowhere. Both Ramirez and Damon are well past their prime. Manny can’t field at all (one could debate whether he ever could) and has injury concerns. Damon doesn’t run like he used to, and his once-excellent range as a center fielder has been reduced to average range for a left fielder. Neither player will ever again match their offensive peak, even in the best-case scenario.
Damon hit .271/.355/.401 last year, good for a .340 wOBA in the offense-sapping environment of Comerica Park. Playing every day, that was enough to make him a 2-win player. Ramirez put up the second-worst season of his career, hitting .298/.409/.460 in just 320 plate appearances. Plagued by what would later be diagnosed as a hernia injury, Ramirez’s power totally vanished in Chicago: He hit just .261/.420/.319 for the White Sox in 88 PA. Manny’s seasonal line was good for about a win and a half.
With all the progressive skill erosion you’d expect from Damon, and the least productive, most injury-plagued, nearly-worst-case scenario season of Ramirez’s career since the ’94 strike, the two players combined to yield three and a half wins for their clubs.
In 2011, they will be paid the market-rate equivalent of a win and a half. Forget the hyperbole for a moment, good or bad. If the two players perform as poorly as they did last year, the Rays got very good value. If they get worse, it’s still a net gain.
But the gains could prove much larger, especially if Manny can be Manny for a full season. Rays’ DHs combined to hit .238/.322/.391 in 2010. The protagonists included Pat Burrell doing a spot-on imitation of Rey Ordonez, Hank Blalock nearly prompting R.J. Anderson to go on a six-state killing spree, and a courageous but infirm Rocco Baldelli coming out of retirement to not help.
In their stead, the Rays get…well, look.
Top MLB hitters by OPS+, 2008-2010
1. Albert Pujols – 184
2. Manny Ramirez – 156
(h/t Baseball Think Factory member DCW3)
Or how about this: Manny Ramirez owns a .422 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching in the past three years, also second-best in all of baseball. If Manny matches or comes close to his three-year average, he’ll be the best hitter on the Rays, better even than Evan Longoria.
Are you a skeptic who thinks Ramirez isn’t the same since his 50-game PED suspension in 2009? You’re absolutely right. In 167 games (631 PA) since then, he’s hit well below career norms, with a line of .284/.399/.476. That’s still better than anyone the Rays had before last night.
Now go back to the cost. Ramirez and Damon came as a package deal from Scott Boras, which helps explain why Ramirez was so cheap (as does Manny’s deferred payments from the Dodgers–$15 million in three installments: $3,333,333 on June 30, 2011 and June 30, 2012, plus $8,333,333 on June 30, 2013). Still, the two ex-Sox will make less combined than Derrek Lee got from the Orioles in his 2011 deal. Manny will make half what Pedro Feliciano got from the Yankees, without the two-year commitment.
With Ramirez and Damon on board, the bullpen at least partially rebuilt, and Jeremy Hellickson slated to take over for Matt Garza, a 90-win season is within reach. And if you’ve got enough talent to win 90 games, a few breaks could mean something better.
With a payroll now slightly below $40 million, the Rays will try to deploy the same depth they used to win 96 games last year (useful contributors like Dan Johnson, Reid Brignac, and Sean Rodriguez, as well as Ramirez, Damon, and possibly the emerging Matt Joyce figure to be rotated, and play less than every day), hoping that contingency plans can find a way to beat a pair of rivals who have more superstar-caliber players.
Desmond Jennings starts the year in Triple-A as the Rays continue their tradition of not calling up players until they’re ready to be more than the usual fringe rookie contributors. Twelve picks await in the first two rounds of this year’s amateur draft. And for slightly more than Matt Garza‘s 2011 salary, the Rays got Ramirez, Damon, a useful utility outfielder, and four intriguing prospects.
The Rays now have the money to go after bullpen reinforcements via trade, from less ambitious but easier-to-acquire targets like Mike Wuertz to, if they’re willing to cash in some of their exceptional minor league depth, Joakim Soria. Or sign David Price to a big contract extension, if both sides are willing. Or sign all 12 of their early-round picks. Or add another undervalued bat like Russell Branyan. Or, best-case scenario, all of the above. If Ramirez and Damon aren’t enough to push the team past their well-heeled rivals, both players’ salaries will be marketable at the deadline. Even a Comp B draft pick or two is possible next season, assuming the compensation pick structure hasn’t been radically altered, or scrapped, next off-season.
For now, Tampa Bay is still not at Boston’s level, not with the Red Sox adding Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford and building one of baseball’s best bullpens outside Oakland. The Yankees still look a little better too. Even with a thin starting rotation, there’s no getting around how devastating that lineup will be once again. And the Yankees, like Boston, have also built a very strong, very deep pen–something the Rays still lack. Of course, even if the Rays fall short in 2011, they did nothing to shackle their payroll beyond this season, they’re still letting most of the kids play and develop, and they’re building a foundation for 2012 and beyond.
Best of all, they should be interesting again this season. They’ll win more games than they would have before these two moves. And even in perhaps the most fickle market in all of Major League Baseball, they may well draw more fans with Sideshow Manny in town, even after stripping out the effects of a higher win total.
The Rays might still be a third-place team in 2011. But they’ll have plenty to YIPYIPYIP about.
Yet more evidence affirming the Rays as the best run organization in baseball, hands down.
Maybe….but, can anyone disagree that the Os and Jays are even to finish 4th and everyone else is also even to finish tops in the divis?
You think the jays and O’s are equal teams? Outrageous.
Jays – Full of Promise
O’s – Derek Lee is their savior.
I would say that while the O’s should be improved, the Jays may be closer to the top 3 than to the O’s. With the off-seasons put together by Tampa (to compensate for their losses), Boston, Toronto and Baltimore, this division could be so competitive in intra-division games that the Wild Card may come from the Central or West.
Yes, a one year first baseman is the O’s savior. The O’s savior will be their young pitching. Both the Jays and the Os will be competitive this season.
Buck will crush the AL East with what he has. You will see, and weep.
um the Jays have been doing pretty well with AA
Before you mentioned that Ramirez is getting deferred money from the Dodgers, I had been scratching my head over his (and Boras’) willingness to take $2 million. It does seem like a surprising amount of popular sentiment is that Ramirez is washed up, and given his age, there is some merit in that feeling – but then again, that .409 on-base percentage from last year is arresting, and hard to look past. The Rays do look awfully good after all of these moves have shaken out, but although I still don’t think that they’re a true-talent 90 win team given their significant overperformance last year, they seem to be legitimate Wild Card contenders despite adhering to the very sensible plan of rebuilding.
I agree. I think the addition of Manny, even if he repeats last year’s “diminished” numbers makes the Rays scary indeed. However, given the fact that his HR/FB% was among the worst of his career (12.7%) last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit a few more homers this year, silencing those critics who say he’s only a singles hitter now, and making the Rays line-up even more frightening in the process.
Finally, some intelligent responses to the Manny signing. I agree, his OBP is nice, but for $2-million?? Good lord, just the upside ALONE (i.e. potential that he will have a rebound season — however likely) is worth that.
$2-million is chump change on an MLB roster.
A lot of those critics were sitting out couches / in seats in Chicago. He was supposed to be a ringer and he just looked wrung out.
even if he bats the way he has since the suspension, he will give a .400 OBP which any team can use, and some (though nothing like it used to be) power and a decent average too. he is still far more than a roll player on that team.
I’m not sure I’d call it overperformance. While their starters weren’t as highly paid as the Yankees, or perhaps not as truly talented, the Rays have more depth than either team, and as demonstrated by the extensive injuries to the redsocks, and to a lesser extent the Yankees, that is extremely important. It’s more a different structure to winning than anything else.
Exactly. It’s pretty tough to “overperform” when you have one of the best starting rotations in the game.
I’m not a huge fan of the Damon deal, but signing Manny for $2M sweetens it as a combo deal. That averages out to approx. $3.5M for Manny + Damon. Niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice.
Even if Manny totally implodes it’s “only” (in MLB terms) $2M down the drain. That is less than the amount the Yankees are paying their bullpen catcher.
This is why I laughed at people proclaiming the Rays finished after all their personnel losses this offseason. Great, great moves. Brilliant job waiting out the market.
1)As a Yankees fan I’m disgraced that we gave the Rays 2 more high picks to restock their system.
2)I’m not a fan of noodle armed Johnny in LF but he’s still a capable #2 hitter, and all manny has done really well was how to loaf and hit. Perfect AL DH.
3)This makes the team more competitive at a cheap price while the prospects develop.
I second Bsally’s comment.
Well one of those high picks was because the Boss didn’t let Cashman do his damn job. Why hire one of the best GMs in baseball only to start meddling? If the Boss thinks he can run the team better himself he should fire Cashman and save the money.
Cashman is very underrated as a GM. He doesn’t get the attention he deserves b/c he has the ability to throw money all over the place but he clearly knows what he’s doing. If he were in a different organization, he’d get the credit he deserves for being one of the best.
“Meet the new boss…”
Nice write-up. Considering ordering The Extra 2 %. Your fluid, succinct writing style just about seals the deal.
@Scout Finch: Thanks, appreciate it. That’s years of stock market writing, pounded into my head by vigilant editors.
Here’s a sneak peek at the book, so you can make an informed decision:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/46657276/THE-EXTRA-2-Sneak-Peek
Nice! I already made that decision, but now I’m excited about being informed ahead of time.
Jeff Francoeur & Brian Fuentes will both make more money to play baseball in 2011 than Manny Ramirez. Something is greatly wrong about this.
So will Skip Schumaker. I’d rather have Manny playing 2B for the Cards. At least he can hit.
So will Skip Schumaker. I’d rather have Manny playing 2B for the Cardinals. At least he can hit.
Alright man we heard you the first time
and i voted both up.
go complain about that
What do u guys think the batting order looks like with Manny and Damon in there?
Given the way Maddon likes to tinker with the lineup, it may be an exercise in futility to try to guess what he would want to do with the lineup.
I would think the only consistent part of the batting order would be Longoria and Manny batting 3rd and 4th.
Good Stuff! Worth every penny. Is this the end of the JonahKeri podcast or will it be moved to Fangraphs in some different form?
The Jonah Keri Podcast remains independent, and with very exceptions (the Fuld piece was a natural fit), will continue to be available exclusively at JonahKeri.com (and iTunes, of course).
The Rays are working brilliantly this offseason.
The other thing about Manny, of course, is that he is over his career probably the most valuable player in baseball history, if you measure value in dollars. The way for a baseball team to make money is to sell out every home game, which gives pricing power that doesn’t exist under the usual surplus-seat situation. Manny Ramirez was the biggest everyday star on the two teams with the longest consecutive sellout streaks.
Will lightning strike again? Doubtful. But since Tampa Bay’s big problem is attendance, not performance, maybe there’s an additional dimension to his signing. It’s ironic that Damon got the attendance clause, though.
You’ve never heard of cross marketing?
Just pre-ordered your book Jonah, keep up the good work.
You are now officially the only thing I want to read when it comes to Rays write-ups. Informative and not boring. ;) Thanks!
Great Stuff!
Like the deals. Especially for Manny..he’s going to want to mash against the Red Sox (nice for me to watch as a Yankees fan). Rays would get an A+ except for that ridiculous Farnsworth deal, knocks their offseason down to a B+….still better than my Yankees and Cashman’s perplexing C- offseason…
the farnsworth signing was not terrible. he has a healthy strike out to walk rate and since he has developed his cutter he has performed much better. it’s not a great high impact signing, but probably a nice deal for a strong bullpen option.
No offense, but isn’t it considered a “perplexing” offseason for the Yankees if they don’t throw boatloads of cash at whatever free agent suits their fancy?
Not exactly the same thing here, is it?
they did throw boat loads of money, but lee didn’t take it. soriano did, though!
You mean like the Red Sox spending $300 million on Crawford and A-Gon? Really, what is the problem with teams using their money on good players? Are the Yankees supposed to use their YES money to build Hal & Hank larger homes in the Bahamas??
Cashman did well with A. Jones and Soriano but he didn’t get the guy they wanted most..simple as that.
I have one question: When does Manny get his other dollar from the Dodgers?
Lets do this. Two players.
Player 1: 2010 OPS 0.870. DH, older top homer hitter
Player 2: 2010 OPS 1.039. DH, older top homer hitter
One player signs for the Rays, and the other signs for the Twins for about the same price. Player 1 gets a novel on FG about how awesome the contract is. Player 2 does not even get a mention.
BTW, Thome hits more HR per at bat than anybody from 2009-2010. Anybody. He is hitting now at a rate similar to any non-roid top homer hitters best stretch.
Barkey Walker,
As a Twins fan, I agree 100%. There has been a few mentions in this very thread about how great the Rays’ front office has been for waiting out the market on these two moves, but the Twins are famous for it.
Pavano and Thome are prime examples of that this season. And what I like about the Thome signing even more than the Manny signing is that, Thome had other options, is a team guy, and when used correctly still offers elite home run production.
Of course, that’s not to say that the Manny Ramirez contract isn’t a great one either.
-Brent
This is a great contract. If he is not suspended for much of the season, I’ll bet Manny vastly out performs his contract *on the field*, when you look at just his numbers, and not the effect he might have in the club house. I’d also bet that if he does not get suspended, he signs for way more next year.
Can you imagine what the Tribe would look like if they had Yankee or Red Sock money?? Not only Manny and Thome that you are mentioning here, but how about CC, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips (Reds), Victor Martinez, Russ Branyan (to a lesser extent), LeBron James–oops, wrong sport… I’m sure I’m forgetting a few, never-the-less, all the names being brought up here reminded me of the Tribe’s ‘almost’ run to glory in the not so distant past…
yeah, its not like fangraphs is all over the twin’s …crotchal region…
all the time anwyay
Re Thome: 100% right! That’s so weird we didn’t cover his signing…looks like it happened on a Friday and got lost in the weekend shuffle.
At any rate, speaking only for myself, I’m the biggest Jim Thome fan around. Called him the best signing of the off-season last year, and loved his re-sign to pieces too. Fantastic, tremendous, awesome deal for the Twins. Gigantic asset, costs next to nothing.
great team guy too, unlike manny (by reputation at least).
Great point. Remind me again, what day of the week was the Manny deal announced?
Being a jackass to Jonah isn’t going to get you anywhere. He’s honest-to-goodness a decent guy.
Yeah…yeah, what Todd said. You asked nicely, Jonah answered nicely, then you pressed the point by being a douchenozzle.
I think that what is actually different about these deals is that Thome stayed with the Twins while Manny moved from Chicago to St. Pete.
So, as a Twins fan, I was surprised to see Thome stay, though everyone else might not be. Its one of those things were, after the fact, you say, “of course.” even if the previous day you might have said, “hmm, I’m not so sure.”
For Manny, anyone would be at least a little surprised to see him signed for 2011, especially at that price.
“Boston’s level, not with the Red Sox adding Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford and building one of baseball’s best bullpens outside Oakland.”
The addition of A-Gon and CC came with the subtraction of Beltre and V-Mart, and means rolling the dice with Salty at catcher.
Also, does adding Jenks and Wheeler to what was arguably one of the poorer bullpens in the AL really put the Red Sox bullpen above the Yankees?
Bullpens are hard to project year to year, so I guess we shall see.
I would not rule out the Rays, especially if they can pick up one more bullpen arm and add another bat like Russell Branyan. I can see BJ Upton having a breakout year 2 years post surgery, and Longoria and Zobrist power numbers improving with Damon and Manny making pitchers work harder for outs and with their high OBP. Damon should see a power boost in the Tropicana, as should a healthy Manny.
It also means rolling the dice with Youkilous at 3rd.
I see that Fangraphs has now hired a Rays’ beat writer. Can we get one for every team? Yay.
let’s not hand them 3rd place quite yet.
career numbers….(all numbers for their projected roles – i.e. starting numbers for starters, relief numbers for relievers, defense numbers for position only).
FIP
SP D.Price (25): 3.87 — SP B.Morrow (26): 3.86
SP J.Shields (29): 4.03 — SP R.Romero (26): 3.95
SP J.Niemann (28): 4.45 — SP B.Cecil (24): 4.51
SP W.Davis (25): 4.45 — SP M.Rzep’ski (25): 4.39
SP J.Hellickson (24): 2.74 — SP K.Drabek (23): 4.08
RP J.Howell (28): 3.53 — RP O.Dotel (37): 3.63
RP K.Farnsworth (35): 3.91 — RP J.Frasor (33): 3.73
RP J.Peralta (35): 4.34 — RP J.Rauch (32): 3.79
RP M.Ekstrom (27): 4.81 — RP C.Janssen (29): 3.81
RP A.Sonnanstine (28): 4.90 — RP C.Villanueva (27): 3.89
RP ?????????????????????????? — RP S.Camp (35): 4.20
RP A.Russel? (28): 2.90 — RP D.Purcey? (29): 3.67
wOBA/uzr150
1) LF J.Damon (37): .350/+3.5 — CF R.Davis (30): .326/+2.6
2) C J.Jaso (27): .337/— — SS Y.Escobar (28): .338/.+3.2
3) 3B E.Longoria (25): .377/+16.9 — RF J.Bautista (30): .346/-1.3
4) DH M.Ramirez (39): .418/— — 1B M.Napoli (29): .357/+4.3
5) RF B.Zobrist (30): .340/+22.2 — DH A.Lind (27): .341/—
6) CF B.Upton (26): .340/+5.7 — 3B E.Encarnacion (28): .344/-11.5
7) 1B D.Johnson (31): .333/+0.9 — LF T.Snider (23): .331/+5.3
8) 2B S.Rodriguez (26): .300/+4.8 — 2B A.Hill (29): .327/+4.8
9) SS R.Brignac (25): .297/+0.6 — C J.Arencibia (25): .232/—
PH) M.Joyce (26): .356/+13.4(LF) — J.Rivera (32): .337/+4.8(LF)
OF) J.Ruggiano (29): .256/-85.9(CF) — C.Patterson (31): .305/+8.9(CF)
IF) ??????????????????: ??????????? — J.McDonald (36): .267/+6.4(SS)
C) K.Shoppach (30): .333/— — J.Molina (36): .273/—
Rays have a big edge defensively, Jays have a big edge in the bullpen, while the starters look pretty comparable, and the offensive difference comes mostly down to how good (and healthy) a 39 year old Manny Ramirez will be.
also i would say the health and bounce back from manny is comparable to whether bautista can repeat his huge 2010. zobrist and hill bounce backs should be in order as well. and i have to think that arencibia will wOBA better than .232….
but yes, they will both field very competitive teams next year. the Os completely overhauled their lineup as well. the yankees are still a powerhouse and the red sox are the early favorites. the AL east is a crazy good division…
I would give my left nut to see the Rays and Jays beat the big bullies.
Didn’t Mcphail come from the Rays organization?
Honest curious question. Was Jonah Keri hired to be the writer for the Rays? This is 4 out of 6 articles since his hire focused on or lauding the Rays.
Jonah,
It’s great to see someone who can actually write on this site – and as usual, this is first-class analysis.
1. Albert Pujols – 184
2. Manny Ramirez – 156
These #s might mean something to someones rotissere team, but are meaningless to Tampa Bay.
Tampa didn’t have 184 players to choose from. They had only their roster, their minors, free agents and who they could get in a trade at this point in the year.
I think you’ll find Damon and Manny a lot higher on that list.
Wait, do you understand what OPS+ is?
you uh, you dont know what OPS+ means, do you?
I’m glad to see Hellickson get an opportunity to start now that Garza is gone…but I think that Rays are not as good as last year,. I think the Yankees are not as good as last year – hardly did anything this offseason – although Soriano is a big upgrade in the buillpen. I think the Jays, without Wells, are not as good as last year. I think the Redsox are improved and that the O’s are much improved and will suprise people by vying for the wildcard.
Who is playing 1B for the Rays anyway? I dont think DH Manny and LF Damon replace Crawford’s and Pena’s bats.
they’re going to get a cardboard cutout of lee and cross their fingers
Dan Johnson and his .230 Batting AVG
.230? That Dan Johnson must be a hell of a hitter!
Zobrist, Johnson, Aybar and Sean Rodriguez all saw time at 1B last season. Damon has played a little 1B. Branyan is still available, if they decide they don’t want to go with Dan Johnson.
At what point did Johnny Damon become a first base option… the guy has spent all of 10 minutes there. Yet somehow this keeps getting repeated and blown up where Rob Neyer has Damon able to play 3 or 4 positions (LF, I assume 1st, and? DH? Is PH or bench player a position?)
The guy has 11 CAREER INNINGS at first base! He’s a first base option, as is Manny Ramirez as is BJ Upton. This appears to be a case to build up the “smartness” of the move and the Rays organization.
Damon is an OK signing, but assuming Jennings gets called up he’ll likely be platooning in LF a bit and maybe getting a few games at DH.
Ben Zobrist never played 1b in the minors, yet he played 13 innings there in 2009, then 79 innings in 2010. Willy Aybar had all of one game in the minors at 1b, in 2008, yet he played 155 innings there in 2008, 204 in 2009 and 16 in 2010. Sean Rodriguez never played 1b in the minors, yet he played 21 innings in 2010.
Given the way Maddon likes to mix and match, and move players around, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Damon plays a little 1b.
I’m just say that you’re doing your well.
http://deadsea2u.org/
Jonah, signing one was ok (Vlad would have been better) but both is ridiculous. Save money on Jennings and send him down? Nice job shoehorning in data on Manny from 2008 when he could have been using. What’s his over/under for homers this year when he’s *39*, 15? The Rays won’t sniff 90 wins this year, mark it down, the bullpen is a mess. Saving/making money is wonderful but banners fly forever and until they have one, the Rays are not a success. They’re a poor-man’s Twins.
http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/The-Rays-Signed-Whoand-Who-BBD2710.htm
I think its great article,The whole story of this article is very interesting.
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