The Mets’ Low-Risk Bullpen Rebuild

Last offseason, Mets GM Sandy Alderson spent just $17.8 million on Major League free agents. Most of that when to Frank Francisco ($12 million) and Jon Rauch ($3.5 million), and the club also absorbed Ramon Ramirez‘s salary ($2.75 million) in the ill-fated Angel Pagan trade. Those three were supposed to join incumbents Bobby Parnell and Tim Byrdak to give the Amazin’s a solid relief unit, but instead the new additions combined to post an underwhelming 4.34 ERA (3.89 FIP) and 0.3 WAR in 163.2 innings.

Francisco, 33, signed a two-year contract last winter and will remain with the Mets this year. He had offseason elbow surgery and the team is openly concerned about whether he will be ready in time for Opening Day. Both Rauch and Ramirez have been allowed to walk as free agents though, plus Byrdak is expect to miss most (if not all) of 2013 following shoulder surgery. For most of the winter it appeared Parnell and rookie left-hander Josh Edgin were the only locks for the team’s Opening Day bullpen, but Alderson has gone to work in the last two weeks by signing low-risk and relatively high-reward relief options.

The first addition was an old friend, former Met Pedro Feliciano. He threw zero innings for the Yankees over the last two years due to shoulder surgery, but his rehab is complete and the 36-year-old was pitching in winter ball back home in Puerto Rico. It’s worth noting that the Yankees likely would have activated Feliciano for September had he not rolled his ankle covering first base in a minor league rehab game. As a low-arm slot soft-tosser, any velocity loss stemming from the shoulder injury shouldn’t be the kiss of death. Since it’s a minor league deal, it wouldn’t be the end of the world if it was.

The second addition could easily turn out to be one of the biggest bargains of the offseason. Alderson signed former Red Sox right-hander Scott Atchison to a minor league contract after he managed a 1.58 ERA and 2.72 FIP in 51.1 innings for Boston last summer. He’s more of a high-ground ball (55.3%) and low-walk (1.58 BB/9 and 4.5 BB%) guy than a pure bat-misser (6.31 K/9 and 18.0 K%), but it’s been working for him since returning from Japan three seasons ago. Teams were obviously concerned about the 36-year-old’s elbow after he successfully rehabbed a ligament sprain and avoided Tommy John surgery in the second half last year, but he did return to make five effective appearances in September. Atchison is absolutely worth a roll of the dice on a non-guaranteed pact.

The third minor league contract was given to 40-year-old LaTroy Hawkins, who is coming off a 3.64 ERA (4.48 FIP) performance in 42 innings with the Angels a year ago. He’s another high-ground ball (56.8%), low-walk (2.79 BB/9 and 7.3 BB%), low-strikeout (4.93 K/9 and 12.9 K%) reliever like Atchison, just without as much 2012 success. He was an 0.8 WAR reliever as recently as 2011, though I highly doubt he’ll see another 0.19 HR/9 (2.8% HR/FB) against anytime soon. That happened in Miller Park as well, so wow. ZiPS projects about 40 replacement-level innings out of Hawkins in 2013, but again, it’s a minor league contract and the Mets are obligated to pay him nothing until they deem him worthy of a 25-man roster spot.

Reports over the weekend indicate the Mets are also nearing a deal with Brandon Lyon, who is likely to receive a guaranteed big league contract. The 32-year-old rebounded from 2011 shoulder injury to post a career-best strikeout rate (9.30 K/9 and 24.4 K%) in 61 innings split between the Astros and Blue Jays last summer. Lyon reinvented himself as a fastball machine in 2012 despite sitting in the upper-80s, employing more two-seamers (10.8%) and cutters (36.7%) while almost completely eliminating his slider (1.2%). The result was a lot of Citi Field-friendly fly balls (just 37.5% grounders) and a negligible platoon split. The terms of the potential contract are unknown at this point, but I’m comfortable saying the price will not be exorbitant given the club’s other recent moves. ZiPS likes Lyon for half-a-win in about 50 innings.

I don’t want to go overboard and make it sound like Alderson built the king of all bullpens in two weeks, but after dropping nearly $12 million (in 2012 salary) on three relievers who combined for a borderline replacement level performance, his new approach is much more fitting for the team’s current situation. Lyon alone is projected to outperform both Rauch (0.1 WAR) and Ramirez (0.3 WAR) this season, and (I assume) he’s the only new guy guaranteed anything. Atchison, Hawkins, and Feliciano are all no-risk minor league signings who, if they perform well, could turn into trade chips at the deadline. The recently-released Mets ZiPS projections had the club with a replacement level bullpen, but they were posted just before this low-risk shopping spree. Alderson has added about one win’s worth of relievers despite minimal commitment in the last two weeks.

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Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.

11 Responses to “The Mets’ Low-Risk Bullpen Rebuild”

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  1. Dave says:

    For a team without money, Alderson has done remarkably well. Getting Marcum for $4mil also looks to be a low-risk / high-reward move. Assuming their outfield moves don’t turn out quite as well and the team struggles to be relevant again, guys like Marcum, Lyon and Atchison could be moved for minor leaguers mid-season, presumably with Santana and Buck. At least in theory. They don’t want to be seen as “punting on 2013″ though.

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    • Cidron says:

      cant say “punting” either, but, I do suspect they will be very active sellers come mid-season/trade deadline times. Is there anybody on the roster that is off limits? That is, aside from Wright, and the returns from Toronto.

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      • schachterman says:

        Who could the Mets really offer? Santana if he has a good first half? Maybe Ike if they decide to go the Duda route? Duda if they decide to go to the Ike route?

        They aren’t exactly full of trade chips.

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      • Jon C says:

        Niese would probably bring back something worthwhile. While it would be really surprising if they moved him (young, locked up last year), I don’t think he’s “off-limits” in the way that Wright is.

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      • dovif says:

        Santana, Marcum, Lyon, KRod, Atchinson, Parnell, Hawkins, Feliciano all has plenty of value for a playoff team needing rotation or bullpen help.

        As for the batting side
        I can see Duda, Murphy and Buck traded if they have a good year

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  2. Matt M says:

    Lyon, Hawkins, Atchinson are all chips. Teams always seek relief help. Marcum, if he’s healthy and effective is another.

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  3. BurleighGrimes says:

    I am sure Alderson is wishing that the outfield bargain bin was just as full of worthwhile gambles…

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  4. Met Greg says:

    I like all the bullpen moves, especially Lyon, but I would still pursue Valverde and then try to deal Parnell as a chip to a team like Toronto that has seven OFers on their 40 man roster. (Cabrera, Gose, Bautista, Rasmus, Davis, Bonifacio, Sierra) Given Toronto’s payroll limit and need for a back end reliever, I bet they would deal Bonifacio (2.6 mil)for Parnell(1.7 mil) straight up. Familia or Lyon could step in as Parnell’s replacement and we get a CF that can bat leadoff. Not a big fan of Bourn at that price tag and I think Bonifacio is a poor man’s Bourn anyway…

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    • Degree Absolute says:

      As bad as the outfield is, I would be surprised if Alderson has any plans to deal Parnell to improve it. Not only was he the Mets most (“only” might be more descriptive) effective reliever, but he is under team control for the next two seasons (arbitration eligible through 2015). Small market teams like the Wilpon-owned Mets can’t afford to lose the financial flexibility that players like Parnell provide.

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  5. Jim Yager says:

    I GIVE UP, just like Sandy has done. We have been BAD since 2007 and there have been no “real” attempts to improve the team. All this talk, andm that’s all it is, talk, about prospects and draft picks, means nothing on the field. Look at the Yankees, they always seem to be in the thick of things, them look at the METS. I think that they are at opposite ends of the plan, the Yankees spend, spend, spend and the METS bargain shop and do nothing. The proper approach, I feel, is something between. As a fan, I have less faith in the 2013 team than I did in 2012 andm, that’s saying alot. Al I want is a team that plays like they did at the start of 2012, comes back from behind, score late and fight until the end. I hate turning off the game as soon as the other team scores a run, that sucks. Prospects and draft picks are great, but, putting all your eggs in one basket never works out. When the future arrives, when is that 2014-15, what then? We llook ahead and say in 2020 we will be better because we have so and so in the minors?

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    • brian says:

      that’s a really silly way to look at things.

      how do you think a team like the yankees was always in the thick of things? by building in-house with a core that turned out to be the the bulk of a dynasty, then filling around it with a piece or two. the yankees were successful because they spent, spent, spent…ON THE DRAFT. why they’ve only won one title in 12 years with limitless resources is because they relied almost exclusively on free agents from 2002-2009 at the expense of their system.

      even going back to the late ’90s, the mets weren’t building like a modern era team. it’s extremely futile (and cost inefficient) to try to buy the latter years of a player’s career at over-market value. teams win by having feeder systems to fill in on the 25 man roster and trade from, take those in-house players they keep and look them up by buying out arb years in exchange for delaying free agency, etc. but…i guess i’ve already expressed way too much logical thinking. “putting all your eggs in one basket” is what they did with free agency. now the team spends on the draft, builds via trades, and tries to continue to give themselves flexibility to be in on any free agent by not committing to outlandish, backloaded contracts for players with fading skill sets. that’s much more diversified than “need OF, sign best OF, DONE!”

      you can’t expect a team that still has ridiculous commitments from the previous administration to just absolve everything in a couple of years. adults build real, sustainable success. children cry when they don’t get what they want when they want it.

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