It’s fun to think about what might have happened if Napoli made a perfect throw (or maybe it isn’t much fun if you were pulling for the Rangers), but it’s pretty tough to quantify chaos theory in terms of WPA when you’re depending on the results of the subsequent 4.5 innings being different somehow.

]]>For instance, David Freese’s home run in game #6 might be considered worth only half as much, since the game 6 win only gave the Cardinals a 50% chance of winning the series, meaning .368 * .5 = .184. This method might eliminate everything but series-clinching heroics, but I’d still be interested in seeing someone develop a method to weight post-season WPA by its impact on the whole series.

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