Comments on: The Next Tommy John? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-tommy-john/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Wed, 22 May 2013 07:58:39 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 By: vivaelpujols http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-tommy-john/#comment-75652 vivaelpujols Wed, 13 May 2009 05:09:22 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4852#comment-75652 It’s league ERA – league FIP, I believe.

]]> By: Teej http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-tommy-john/#comment-75617 Teej Tue, 12 May 2009 22:33:33 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4852#comment-75617 Wait, that might not be right. It’s whatever the FIP constant is. I thought it was league ERA, but I think I’m wrong on that.

]]> By: Teej http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-tommy-john/#comment-75615 Teej Tue, 12 May 2009 22:22:40 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4852#comment-75615 I believe it would be whatever the league ERA is.

(0*13+(0+0-0)*3-0*2)/IP + league ERA = league ERA

]]> By: Jake http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-tommy-john/#comment-75612 Jake Tue, 12 May 2009 22:03:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4852#comment-75612 What would a “no true outcomes” pitcher’s FIP be, if absolutely no hitters whiffed, walked, or homered?

]]> By: Teej http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-tommy-john/#comment-75604 Teej Tue, 12 May 2009 20:33:59 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4852#comment-75604 ?

]]> By: aweb http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-tommy-john/#comment-75595 aweb Tue, 12 May 2009 19:11:47 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4852#comment-75595 Is there anything that would allow you to think someone is the next Tommy John, in so far as the homer prevention goes? Homerun prevention by pitchers seems like something that will undergo a sober second thought, like BABIP did. The first thought for BABIP, if I recall correctly, that pitchers (knuckleballers excluded) didn’t have much control over it. The prevailing thought as I understand it now is that a select few pitchers do have such control, and make careers out of it.

Preventing home runs on flyballs – which would mainly consist of the angle of ball/bat contact and bat speed – would seem to be a very fine subset of the flyball/groundball control most pitchers display consistently. It’s likely some pitchers are able to induce more weak flyballs than others, it’s just hard to spot in population studies, since the outliers end up looking like noise.

It’s not just sinker-ballers who might qualify. Zito, even at the height of his struggles, kept his HR/FB reasonable, and is at 8.5% for his career. Meanwhile, someone like Dave Bush has been consistently near a career mark of 11.7%. Of course, very few pitchers manage to suppress Ks and BBs on top of that.

I would think the hardest thing for a “no true outcomes” pitcher would be to get noticed and put up good minor league numbers. Minor leagues are noted for poorer defense (and facilities), making it hard for someone who relies on balls in play to succeed and stand out.

]]> By: Ryan D http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-tommy-john/#comment-75592 Ryan D Tue, 12 May 2009 19:01:08 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4852#comment-75592 H/T Rob Neyer please

]]>