The Other Drew (Arizona Version)

Although the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks are fading into NL West irrelevance fairly quickly, their infield has had a good season so far. Mark Reynolds, Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson are all hitting well. The fourth member of the infield, shortstop Stephen Drew, has gotten relatively little attention this season. However, he’s actually leading the Diamondbacks’ value leaderboard as of today at 1.6 Win Above Replacement.

While Drew performed well in his 59 game (226 PA) 2006 debut, his first full season in 2007 was a disappointment both offensively and in the field. At the plate, Drew simply didn’t show much power (.133 ISO), and while there were good signs as far as his walk rate and plate approach went, as well as a fair share of BABIP bad luck, a .303 wOBA (-18.9 batting runs below average) wasn’t exactly what the Diamondbacks were hoping for from their 2004 first round pick, especially when his defense was at best average (Plus/Minus) and at worst abysmal (-12.3 UZR). 2008 showed marked offensive improvement for Drew. Although his OBP was merely adequate (.333) he hit for good power (.211) ISO as part of a .353 wOBA campaign — very good for a shortstop, even of of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors. However, his defense was, if anything, worse than it had been the season before, between below average (-3 DRS) and Betancourt-esque (-15.8 UZR). According to the defensive metrics, 2009 was an improvement in the field for Drew (+8 DRS, +3 UZR), but his bat fell back below average.

It isn’t as if Drew has been terrible the past couple of seasons. On the contrary, with the less-friendly UZR numbers, FanGraphs WAR has him at 2.2 in 2008 and 2.1 in 2009 — about a league-average player. I suspect that a detailed study would find this is be decent production for a #15 draft pick. Still, it would be understandable if the Diamondbacks and their fans were a bit disappointed in Drew.

2010 has been a different story. It’s too early to say much about the defense other than to note that Drew’s numbers look to be in line with his improvements in 2009. Drew’s offensive output (.304/.372/.507, .387 wOBA) has been impressive so far. He’s hitting with the power he displayed in 2008 without excessive home run/flyball luck (although he has had one inside-the-parker). There isn’t much different going on for Drew, actually, in terms of plate discipline or batted ball profile — a few more walks, and a few more line drives. He’s probably benefiting from luck on balls in play (.357 BABIP), and his platoon split (a career-long issue) in 2010 is big even for a lefty. And, of course, he’s only 165 plate appearances into the season.

It is to the organization’s credit that they didn’t get frustrated with Drew’s “merely” average value the previous two seasons. The Diamondbacks have let Drew work out his struggles with the bat and glove on the field, rather than scapegoating him, moving him to a different position in favor of a mediocre stopgap, or trading him when his value would be low. Maybe Drew will just turn out to be an average player in the long-run, but the Diamondbacks have been smart enough to realize that their best choice in the situation has been to be patient, and so far in 2010, they are reaping the reward.




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Matt Klaassen reads and writes obituaries in the Greater Toronto Area. If you can't get enough of him, follow him on Twitter.


3 Responses to “The Other Drew (Arizona Version)”

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  1. heyyoo says:

    Actually Drew’s split problem is more recent, and not really a “career long issue”. You need to take a closer look

    He was fine against lefties in 2006-2008, but starting in 2009 began a trend of extreme split.

    Drew vs. Lefties:

    2006-2008 376 PA’s .268/.315/.431 .746 OPS
    2009-2010 188 PA’s .195/.251/.320 .571 OPS

    Drew’s career BABIP vs lefties by season

    2006-.591
    2007-.311
    2008-.309
    2009-.217
    2010-.263

    He has a career .296 BABIP vs. Lefties. His career line vs lefties of .244/.294/.395 .688 OPS is about what you would expect.

    Really, the wildly fluctuating BABIP in general is what has always made Drew an enigma. While it’s .307 for his career, (vs. both LHP and RHP) it’s bounced up and down like a yo yo each year. Of course so has his line drive rate. You can see all that in his graphs and split graphs.

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  2. Thanks for the response.

    I was unclear: I did look at that, but as has been emphasized — you need a lot of data to determine splits. He’s probably always had a split, but it’s become more obvious and pronounced the last couple of seasons.

    On platoon skills, see

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/estimating-hitter-platoon-skill/

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  3. highrent says:

    the problem is he wasn’t supposed to be 15th round pick and was paid like a much higher pick. As well as rated that way so you can understand the Dbacks having high expectations.

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