The Pirates’ Blues
Perhaps no division has seen its pitching staffs improve as much as the National League Central. Additions of Zack Greinke and Matt Garza, the re-signing of Jake Westbrook, and the expulsion of Dave Bush should result in an improved state of pitching. As silly as it sounds, the Pittsburgh Pirates have contributed to this pitching renaissance too. Although lacking in star power, the team has made strides to field a rotation that won’t be the worst in the league next season.
To repeat the numerous ways win-loss record is a poor way to judge pitching talent would be nothing short of insulting and banal, but consider that the Pirates rotation lost 84 games last season despite throwing the fewest innings in the majors. No other rotation lost more than 72 games. You have to go back to the 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks to find a team that lost at least 80, and then back to the 2003 Detroit Tigers to find a team that lost more (94).
The Pirates defense was poor – although it, too, should be upgrade – but even the team’s FIP ranked as the second worse among the league’s starting units. If you combine the second worst unit FIP with their league-low amount of innings, the result was less than five WAR, which is not from one pitcher or a combination of two or three, but from the entire rotation. Paul Maholm delivered two of those wins while James McDonald (who made 11 starts) contributed 1.7.
Offseason additions Kevin Correia and Scott Olsen don’t figure to be world beaters, but they should be upgrades. ZiPS projects Correia to post a 4.52 ERA with a FIP around the league average mark. Meanwhile, Olsen is tabbed at a 4.83 ERA and a slightly lower FIP. Olsen’s struggles versus right-handed batters throughout his career are almost comical (.282/.351/.480 in more than 2,500 plate appearances) but the good news is that PNC Park puts right-handed power in a vice. Those ERA appear mediocre, but would have ranked as the fourth and sixth best on the 2010 Pirates’ staff. If nothing else, the additions can serve as non-atrocious depth which is notable because the Pirates gave more than 172 innings to below replacement level starters.
Expectations of a league average rotation are too much. Barring a sea otter attack on Ross Ohlendorf and James McDonald, there’s no way this rotation could possibly pitch worse than last season.
Hooray!
Sea otter attack?
Hmmm.
Good for the Pirates that Pittsburgh isn’t on the ocean coast…
Or bad for the Pirates considering that they are, you know, pirates…
I’d say the 90% to 95% chance that at 3/5′s of their rotation are actually crab people is an even greater risk for the Pirates.
Crab people, Crab people.
Taste like crab, talk like people.
Don’t give the Pirates front office any ideas…they may actually consider it for a promotional activity!
Check to see if the Pirates have a lease similar to the owner of the Indians in the movie Major League…that is the only way the Pirates make any sense.
“[...] but consider that the Pirates rotation lost 84 games last season despite throwing the fewest innings in the majors”
wouldn’t the number of losses and the low innings count from starters be a correlation to each other, and not a surprise? Without thinking too in-depth about it, the main reason that they would get fewer innings pitched out of their starters than the average rotation would be due to a terrible performance (that is, more runs allowed per inning pitched) and thus more losses.
Or maybe this has nothing to do with anything?
“wouldn’t the number of losses and the low innings count from starters be a correlation to each other, and not a surprise?”
Agreed.
On the other hand they have to throw enough innings to not have the game decided after the bullpen takes over.
That would probably be more of an issue if the Pirates didn’t run away with 16th in the NL scoring race.
I could see it going either way.
If you only throw two innings and have dug your team a 7-1 deficit, the decision is pretty well in hand already.
True, but if you do that more than a couple times you’re out of a job. You need to maintain a level of acceptable mediocrity to keep losing but still keep getting starts.
23 guys lost 13+ games in the majors last year. 20 of them threw 170+ innings and 10 were over 200.
Pittsburgh’s guys managed to lose without going deep into games. Ohlendorf’s line seems especially improbable : 1-11 in 21 starts with a 4.07 ERA, averaging less than 5 1/3 innings per start.
“True, but if you do that more than a couple times you’re…”
Charlie Morton. Boy did he have a terrible year.
Ohlendorf’s innings total is kind of weird. He went at least six innings in 13/21 starts, and in five of the rest gave up three or fewer runs; his total is dragged down by two games in which he pitched 0.2 innings total (took a line drive off the head in one, strained a muscle after a hit and a walk in the other and the reliever promptly gave up a home run to Pujols). As for his W-L total, he should’ve sued the rest of the Pirates for non-support.
“True, but if you do that more than a couple times you’re out of a job.”
Don, meet the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates.
2010 Pittsburgh Pirates, meet Don. :)
Yeah I was gonna say– not that it really has any bearing on this post, but I dunno about the exclusion of Marcum from the intro. Honestly, I’m not even sure that Garza is definitively better than Marcum.
“On the other hand they have to throw enough innings to not have the game decided after the bullpen takes over.”
If your starting pitching and your hitting are bad enough, the bullpen doesn’t matter much. That’s the Pirates. If you have (intermittently) bad starting but good hitting, then the bullpen can do you in – see the ’10 Red Sox.
Whoa… comparing the Pirates to the Red Sox is cruel and unusual punishment. The Pirates must fantasize about being done in by their bullpen in that manner.
“…there’s no way this rotation could possibly pitch worse than last season.”
You obviously haven’t watched a lot of Pirates games. If Paul Maholm gets hurt this could be the worst rotation in 20 years.
ive watched nearly every game. our rotation is better simply due to replacing a couple of the arms. jmac, ohly and maholm all can be more than servicable starters, correia could be decent. with duke, dcutch, burres and karstens (sorta) gone, the rotation is NOT as bad as last season. even if maholm gets hurt, lincoln/owens/morris/wilson and maybe even morton/olsen can be thrown in the mix.
“Although lacking in star power, the team has made strides to field a rotation that won’t be the worst in the league next season.”
Who is worse?
Las Vegas in the PCL? (6.10 team ERA, 1.73 team WHIP)
Gotta love a sanely run team letting their pitchers be exposed to that bandbox on their way to Toronto.
Kansas City and Arizona!
The one consolation for Pittsburgh is knowing that they can still fleece Ned Colletti in any trade. If one of their middle relievers still has a sub-4.00 ERA in July, they can probably take their pick of any two of the Dodgers’ top prospects.