The Quantity and Quality of Napoli’s Contact
Mike Napoli was, at least at the time, an under-discussed portion of not only one of the worst trades of recent times, but also the puzzling follow-up trade in which the Jays sent Napoli to the Rangers for reliever Frank Francisco. Even given that at the time Napoli was not projected to be the monster he turned to be in 2011, that seems really weird given that his hitting style seemed to fit right into the type of sluggers the Jays love to collect.
In any case, after dealing with injury issues early in the year Napoli turned into one of the great stories of the 2011 season, as he not only hit for great power even by his previous standard, but significantly upped his average (by cutting his strikeout rate and boosting his BABIP) to finish the season with a .320/.414/.631 (144 wRC+) line that rivaled Josh Hamilton‘s from 2010.
Even given reasonable expectations for regression, Napoli’s 2012 has been disappointing. While he has dealt with health issues this season, going on the disabled list this weekend after trying to play through an injury, Napoli has never really gotten going in 2012. After a career best wRC+ in 2011, Napoli currently has a seasonal career worst 105 wRC+. The easy thing would be to simply point to average on balls in play dropping back closer to his pre-2011 rates, but the issues go beyond that. His drop in power is particularly interesting.
Of course, the lower batting average does have a great deal to do with Napoli’s problem. Napoli was always a high-strikeout guy for the Angels. However, while one would have naturally expected both his power numbers and BABIP to improve after the trade given the change in parks, even with the acknowledgment that parks can affect stuff like strikeout rates, Napoli’s strikeout rate drop to under 20 percent in 2011 after being around 25 percent for most of his previous seasons was shocking. It might be even more surprising that after a career best year in that respect, he would now be posting a career-worst strikeout rate at just over 30 percent so far.
It is not as if Napoli faced a whole new set of pitchers in 2011 who had to take a year to learn how to pitch to him — he was even in the same division. His contact rate is not any worse than it was in 2010 with the Angels, and he is actually swinging at fewer bad pitches. However, while he might be making contact at a similar (poor) rate as 2010, plate appearances are ending with it at an even lower rate. Whatever the cause (and I am not qualified to speculate on stuff like underlying injuries), strikeouts have been a big problem.
However, as mentioned at the outset, strikeouts are hardly Napoli’s only problem in 2012. To go back to 2010 with the Angels, while Napoli did not have as high a strikeout rate as he does this year, it was high. But his average on balls in play was about the same, and of even more interest, his isolated power was actually a bit higher in 2010 than 2012 despite the Angels’ home park being less generous to right-handed hitters than the Rangers’ in almost all respects.
Napoli is not hitting home runs on plate appearances ending contact (HR/[AB-K]) at the quite same rate he was last year. In 2011, he did so at a rate of about 10.5 percent, this year he is at about 8.7 percent. His 2012 rate is closer to his last year with the Angels, when he his home runs on 8.1 percent of such plate appearances. But again, given that Texas is a much more generous park, one would not necessarily expect that much regression.
Using Hit Tracker to look a bit more closely, we see that in 2012 Napoli’s average home run has a speed 101.8 miles per hour off of the bat with an average standard distance (that is, normalized for the sake of comparison) of 386.7 feet. As one would expect, in 2011, those numbers were better: 104.1 miles per hour and 403.8 feet. In 2010, however, when his home run rate was just slightly less than this year, while the standard distance was right in between 2010 and 2012 at 393.5 feet, the speed off of the bat was closer to 2012. While this is based on a relatively small sample of home runs from each season, it is a bit of evidence that the quality of contact Napoli is making in 2012 is not that of previous seasons for either Texas and Los Angeles.
One might also infer this from his rate of extra-base hits in play ([2B+3B]/[H-HR]). So far in 2012, that rate is about 18 percent. That is also the lowest of Napoli’s career. In 2011, he was at 28 percent, in 2010 he was over 30 percent. In all of his previous seasons in Anaheim Napoli was at around 28 percent of his hits on play going for extra bases for about 28 percent except for 2008, when it was still around 24 percent. Moreover, in 2008 he had his highest rate of home runs on contact of his career (12.3 percent), so many of those would-be doubles were likely going for home runs. This is more evidence that Napoli is not hitting the ball as ahrd in 2012 as he did not only in 2011, but in pre-2011 seasons.
There could be many explanations for Napoli’s problems with contact in 2012 — underlying injuries, Napoli not picking the right pitches to try and pull, or simply aging. Random variation is another (boring) possibility. Obviously, the quantity of Napoli’s contact has been a big issue this year. But this brief look at some numbers also shows that the quality of the contact he is making is not what it has been in the past — even the pre-2011 past.
It seems that lefties are killing Napoli. His wOBA with lefties is .250 while its .390 w/righties.
sample size
Unless it’s not.
Would still rather have him than Vernon Wells of Frank Fransisco.
I don’t understand why the author felt a need to bash the Napoli-Francisco deal…
Blue Jays wanted a draft pick before the new CBA, and they got that with Francisco. Napoli isn’t due for free agency until the end of 2012, and if he stayed with the Blue Jays, he may or may not garner any draft-pick compensation. Also, don’t froget that the Blue Jays already had their C, 1B, and DH roles already filled, so Napoli would likely played off the bench, thus further hurting Napoli’s value.
I mean, this is the same GM that got a compensatory (sandwich) pick for the loss of Jose Molina, so I think from the Blue Jays point-of-view, things turned out okay.
Because it was a horrible trade?
Trading 5 wins for a draft pick is a bad trade.
Would still rather have no Vernon Wells AND Mike Napoli (which is what AA had until he chose to trade away Napoli for a reliever)
Must people defend everything AA does as if he walks on water. It was a bad trade yet the rationalizations still continue. (“tied” to the Vernon Wells deal, “‘need” for a comp pick)…
But if Napoli was coming off the bench, he would not have been a 5 win player
I can agree with you that AA might have felt compelled to trade Naps because his team was deep at C at the time, and wanted to play Lind full-time at 1B, but the rest of your argument is most invalid.
That Napoli-Francisco trade was definitely a head scratcher and a poor move by AA – at the time we had uncertainties at both 1B and DH. Only explanation that makes any reasonable sense is that it was a cost cutting mandate from above.
And NO, not all of us think that AA walks on water – the honeymoon period is nearly over and if there are no results as soon as next season you will see a lot of people raising their voices as he is currently wasting away Bautista’s prime/window.
Napoli had a 178 wRC+ in 2011, not 144.
So does he get re-signed this winter? Or does he go somewhere else as a FA? And if the latter, what’s a reasonable price for him?
A few worth examining:
- Napoli makes $9.4m this year
- qualifying offer for draft pick compensation is approx $13.4m
Possible comparisons signed before free agency:
- Yadier Molina has a 5yr/$75m contract
- Miguel Montero has a 5yr/$60m contract
Napoli is older than both Molina and Montero so that’s one issue, and he doesn’t have the same track history as the others. I think 4yr/$40m is a good offer. If Napoli declines, then give the 1yr/$13.4m qualifying offer… But beyond that, I don’t know who is going to catch for the Rangers in 2013.
He also isn’t as good defensively at C with -2 DRS this year, 1 DRS last year, and -7 DRS in 2010. Molina meanwhile is 11 DRS in 12, -4 DRS in 11 (what the heck?), and 20 DRS 2010 and Montero is 1 DRS in 2012, 5 DRS in 2011, and 1 DRS in 2010. Now, we all know defesive stats for catcher are iffy, but they are still better defensive catchers.
Soto
Well, at least his defensive performance this year has I think finally confirmed that he has no business catching MLB games.
So looks to me like we’ve got a DH in Napoli who has only ever had one season where he was even close to a full-time player (140gms in 2010, otherwise never more than 114gms), and aside from what looks to be a fluke year last year, the more of a fulltime role he’s received the more and more his stats have approached mediocre…..to wit:
2008: 48% of team games played, 146wRC+
2009: 70% of team games played, 119wRC+
2010: 86% of team games played, 112wRC+
2011: 70% of team games played, 178wRC+
2012: 82% of team games played, 105wRC+
2011 looks like a pretty clear fluke I think.
And in the only two seasons that he’s been used as close to a full-time player (i.e. 80+ % of his team’s games) – 2010 and 2012 – he’s been a moderately above league average bat…..but probably distinctly average for the 1B/DH slot he should be playing in.
Wait, what? Where do you get this from?
“Well, at least his defensive performance this year has I think finally confirmed that he has no business catching MLB games.”
Napoli has continued to catch plenty of games and will be expected to do so in October, if healthy.
Mechanically, Nap’s swing looks longer and slower than I recall from last year — like he’s hurling a garden hoe into a gale-force wind. If I wanted to test that hypothesis, is there a way to do it other than side x side video comps of his swing 2011 vs. 2012?
I wonder if Napoli is less motivated this year. In 2011, he had a chip on his shoulder and something to prove to the Angels. He was a wrecking ball to the Angels.
He’s been a wrecking ball to the Angels this year, too.
447/588/789 LOL!
I think playing for a huge contract is more cause for motivation than playing with a chip on your shoulder.
Vernon Wells. $21M net, plus another $9M for Abreu, to keep each other company on the bench. Amazing.
BTW, when does Scioscia get fired? They added Pujols, Wilson, Greinke, and the best rookie in history, and they have a .522 record. As bad as my RS are, and as little as I think of Valentine, there are at least a few excuses.
Scioscia will never get fired.
Valentine? 2 days after the end of the WS.
2018 when his contract expires.
Can someone explain to me what wRc means? Thanks
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/
Glossary found in menu bar at top of page.
“. . . that seems really weird given that [Napoli's] hitting style seemed to fit right into the type of sluggers the Jays love to collect.”
Does anyone know where I can find more information about this? Is Klaassen referring to “dead-pull hitters”? What are the types of sluggers “the Jays love to collect” and why?