This is the second part of a three-part series highlighting a 20-year history of first-round catchers.
Since 2003, another 24 catchers have been drafted in the first round. This includes a 2007 draft that saw eight catchers taken, starting with Matt Wieters and ending with Ed Easley. Seven of those players have already reached the Majors with varying degrees of success: Wieters, Daric Barton, Mitch Maier, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Landon Powell, Josh Donaldson and Jeff Clement (I’m not counting Buster Posey). Two of the 24 can already be qualified as busts, as neither Jon Poterson or Max Sapp are playing professional baseball. That leaves us with 15 players today to discuss.
Neil Walker, Pirates, 24, AAA, .336/.404/.601
Never good enough defensively to be a catcher, never enough bat for the third base experiment to work. But he’s competent and consistent, and now capable of playing first, second, third, left field and probably serves that emergency catcher role. He’ll be on a big league bench.
Brandon Snyder, Orioles, 23, AAA, .200/.289/.300
Snyder has shown some nice offensive improvements since his disastrous 2006 full-season debut, but has fallen off a cliff since reaching Norfolk in midseason 2009. I don’t see 2 WAR ever happening, as good as his 58 games at Bowie almost had me fooled.
Hank Conger, Angels, 22, AAA, .240/.325/.385
The warning sign I saw consistently with busts is a significant drop-off once reaching Double-A. At first blush, Conger’s 58-point OPS drop looks as it qualifies. But when considering the context — a tougher offensive environment, far more PA’s, improved patience — he actually improved. Conger isn’t the power bat we thought he might become, but if his defense allows it, his contact ability could certainly see him become Mike Lieberthal.
Devin Mesoraco, Reds, 22, High-A, .328/.418/.608
Was written off a little fast, considering his first two seasons were the Midwest League at 20 (.710 OPS, 83 G) and the Florida State League at 21 (.692 OPS, 92 G). He’s healthy now, and in the same place as a lot of his peers that chose to attend college instead. Showing every skill, including improved defense. I think he was written off too early, but I wait to see how he handles Double-A to elevate his prospect status too heavily.
J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays, 24, AAA, .226/.299/.391
I’m a little concerned about Arencibia. He was given much praise after a 2009 hot start in the FSL, but that was just half a season. He then finished that year up with a .282/.302/.496 line in Double-A, and now through 146 career AAA games, has a line of .234/.287/.434. There is juice in the bat, no other real skill. I don’t have high expectations.
Travis d’Arnaud, Blue Jays, 21, High-A, .328/.362/.547
On the shelf with a backstrain, d’Arnaud looked like he might be having a breakthrough season. There is a lot to like, but there is also a long way to go. Can’t wait to see what he can do when healthy.
Jackson Williams, Giants, 24, AA, .225/.389/.348
Has improved going up the ladder, but he started so low, that I’m not sure the future holds much. He was a budgetary pick the season the Giants had three first round picks, and is known more for his defense. It would be a smart thing for Williams to continue with this newfound patience, as defense and patience could lead to a long career backing up Buster Posey.
Mitch Canham, Padres, 25, AA, .200/.296/.290
It’s not looking good for Canham, who is the one person on the list so far that I really can’t see playing in the Major Leagues.
Ed Easley, Diamondbacks, 24, AA, .273/.377/.364
No power and marginal defensive skills aren’t a good combination. Easley was a questionable first-round pick when it happened, and he’s done nothing to make me think he’s a Major Leaguer.
Buster Posey, Giants, 23, AAA, .338/.435/.535
And has thrown out 46% of opposing baserunners. The Giants affinity to Bengie Molina remains the most baffling aspect of this Major League season for me. #freebuster
Kyle Skipworth, Marlins, 20, Low-A, .273/.329/.516
If the Marlins had taken the conservative route with Skipworth and held him until short-season ball last year, his prospect status would be much higher today. As it stands, Skipworth is repeating Low-A, and doing a very nice job of it. His defense is much improved, the power is back. But his 10/43 walk-to-strikeout rate leaves much to be desired. I don’t have real high hopes, but the talent is there.
Jason Castro, Astros, 23, AAA, .259/.394/.296
Has now played 96 games above the California League, and has 19 extra-base hits in 400 plate appearances. I like the defense, I like the walk rate, and he makes enough contact. But until Castro starts to hit the ball with authority, the brightness of his future is in question. A good-not-great prospect.
Tony Sanchez, Pirates, 22, High-A, .294/.401/.460
This is, to a degree, where Castro was a year ago. The difference is that Sanchez is doing it in a much more difficult environment, and is much less polished defensively. He’s going to make the Majors, but the chance of him becoming a star doesn’t seem high for me.
Steven Baron, Mariners, 19, Low-A, .176/.208/.231
There was a lot of wondering why the Mariners were so into Baron, and it isn’t going to stop soon. Baron is overmatched as a teenager in the Midwest League, and not waiting to play him in the Northwest League seems like a bad decision. If he makes the Majors down the road, it will not be for his bat. But that will have to come a long way to even have that discussion.
Josh Phegley, White Sox.
Phegley is currently on the Disabled List with ITP Syndrome, a virus that attacks platelets in your body. Baseball has been put on hold for the Indiana University product, and we wish him the best of luck in his comeback.
We learned yesterday that just 8 of the 31 catchers drafted in a 15-year stretch ever contributed 12 WAR or more at the Major League level. If so, we can expect just 3-4 members of this group to do it. My guess is Posey, one of Sanchez/Castro, d’Arnaud and one of Conger/Mesoraco.