As Matt says the probability of a .600 team winning 17 of any particular 18 games is just 0.12%. But since there are 145 possible places in the schedule to play 18 consecutive games (without overlapping into the next season), the chances of that .600 team winning any 17 out of any group of 18 consecutive games is something like 16.2%. And that’s just for 17 of 18. The chances of going 16 of any 17 are more like 24.4%. The chances of a particular .600 team going for 9 out of any 10 is so probable it’s basically unavoidable – 99.8%.

And that’s just for one team. With a league of 30 teams, streaks of this size should be expected. Whether or not one desires to praise a team for whatever intrinsic qualities allowed such a streak to fall upon its lap versus that of another team is entirely up for debate. ]]>

Are we sure that they are not a 60% true talent team (assumming that the term, “true talent 60% wins team” means that the Rockies would win sixty percent of their games if they played, like, a million games)?

A binomial distribution tells us that a true talent 60% wins team wins 71 games or fewer of its first 125 by random chance about 26% of the time (not too unusual). FWIW, if we were to assume that the Rox are a true talent 55% wins team (probably what the author thinks is accurate), their recent run of 51 out of 73 games would happen by random chance about 0.7% of the time.

Therefore, because the Rockies performance this season at least somewhat similar to a true talent 60% wins team, it seems reasonable to argue that the Rockies *might* be a true talent 60% wins team.

]]>Clint Hurdle Fired.

Garret Atkins finally benched.

Carlos Gonzalez one of if not he best hitter statistically since the break.

Speed at the 1 2 spot

Hawpe one of the best clutch hitters in baseball.

Jason Marquis

Jimenez

Cooke

Street

D up the middle

Helton

This is certainly not statistically impossible.

]]>It’s hard to quantify “maturity”. I think what you are looking at is a better baseball team than the 07 team even though Colorado no longer has Holiday. The lineup is remarkably different than 07 (3 of the top 4 guys in the lineup are gone, and Atkins is on the bench), and the starting rotation is infintely better.

In contrast, a really “mature” team would be the Giants. “Youth” has its advantages sometimes too.

]]>How did you get this number? I ran the odds of winning exactly 17 out of a particular 18 games — (.6 ^ 17) * .4 * 18, (the 18 is for permutations) — and came up with 0.0012, which is 0.12%, or 12 times your number. Also, I don’t think you really want to look at that narrow a case as it’s not particularly enlightening.

Sure, getting a great run of wins is really unlikely, but it will happen. If you single out those particular games and calculate the chance that the run happened right there to that team at that time, you’re always going to get a miniscule probability.

The chances that a 60% team wins 17 of 18 at *some* point in a season are much, much higher, and the chances that some team does it at some point in the season are higher still.

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