The Tigers Need…
While pretty much everyone knows that you “can’t predict baseball,” if there was one feeling shared by the majority of analysts before the season started, it was that the Detroit Tigers were going to easily win the American League Central, perhaps with some token resistance from Cleveland. That is not how things have gone, as presently the Tigers not only find themselves trailing Cleveland, but also surprising division leader Chicago. The Tigers are clearly built to “win now,” and with almost two-thirds of a season to play, being four games out of the division lead (not to mention wildcard possibilities) is hardly insurmountable. This is especially so since neither Chicago nor Cleveland are juggernauts themselves. The Tigers are thus in a position to buy, so what do they need?
Obviously, there are a number of minor improvements any team could make to their middle relief, their bench, and so on. For this short post, I will focus on three (or four, depending on how you look at it) areas in which the Tigers might look to make improvements. This is not to say that they would be able to do so in all of them, but these are the spots where they could look at cumulatively add a few wins down the stretch: the starting rotation, the second base, and the outfield/DH situation.
Prior to the season, Detroit’s starting rotation was seen as shallow but strong. So far this season, only the first has been the case. Justin Verlander has been Verlander-ing it up, but after that, things have been ugly. Rick Porcello has been even more disappointing that usual, yes, he’s only 23, but pitcher aging curves are not like hitter aging curves, and the Tigers are not built to wait around on him. Max Scherzer just can’t be this bad (as far as his ERA goes), but something more than just “random variation” is going on — the team certainly cannot afford to expect him to turn into a #2 pitcher for the rest of the season, and even a #3 is a stretch. Doug Fister was suppsoed to be their #2 starter, and has pitched very well — when he has been healthy. Drew Smyly has been a nice surprise, but now he is hurt, and was probably a fair bit over their heads, anyway.
That is five pitchers, but two have missed time with injury and two have been terrible. The Tigers are not in a position to hope they all stay healthy from here on out and that Scherzer and Porcello will regress “up” (while the other three stay awesome). They do not need to necessarily acquire Ryan Dempster (although that would be nice), but getting a helpful veteran who can give them some near-league average innings (Kevin Millwood?) would be a good idea, especially with stud prospect Jacob Turner not looking like he is going to come up and play savior any time soon.
Second base has been another sore spot for the Tigers. The plan was to have Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago platoon, but apparently the Tigers forgot about their annual tradition of Raburn starting slow and getting demoted. In the meantime, Santiago probably is not a true-talent .261 wOBA hitter, but he is not good. Raburn is not as bad with the bat as he has looked, but he really should not play second base regularly (he is more suited for another role, as I will discuss below). The platoon was a good idea in theory, and might work if they make other improvements, but if they can find a team ready to dump a middle infielder, second baseman are not usually in demand, and it would not take Chase Utley in his prime to be an improvement over the current situation.
The outfield should be somewhat better with Austin Jackson back in the fold. He is due for plenty of regression, but that will be far better than wishing on Quintin Berry‘s star. The corners are more of a problem. In one corner, there is Andy Dirks, off to a monster start to the year. The Tigers might as well see what they have in Dirks, but there has been very little indication in the minors that he is anywhere close to being a true-talent 146 wRC+ hitter in the majors. Brennan Boesch has been terrible at the plate so far this year, but he is on the opposite end of the “luck” spectrum from Dirks. As ZiPS RoS indicates, they are both probably .320-.330 wOBA true talent hitters, which is above-average overall, but probably more suited to fourth outfielder types. The Tigers might be able to find someone to take over one of these positions, but probably not both. One way of improving the situation either way would be to use Ryan Raburn as a platoon partner for one (or both) players, as they are both left-handed hitters and Raburn has usually hti lefties well in the past. That would leverage Raburn better than giving away his platoon advantage with his glove at second base.
The Tigers could find a player that improves on Dirks and Boesch in the corners alternately platooning with Raburn, but likely the easiest single place to improve their team as currently set up requires no defensive skill: designated hitter. Sure, Delmon Young is only 26, had that one pretty good year in Minnesota, hit some memorable home runs in last year’s playoffs, and was a monster prospect eight years ago, but he is also a useless fielder who is working on his second consecutive season with a wRC+ under 90. Yes, Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera were young players who had terrible records who turned it around at about the same age, but the 2012 Tigers are not the 2011 Royals — the want to win now. Yes, Young is projected to be a .320 wOBA hitter the rest of the way, but that is about replacement level for a DH by itself.
Maybe Young would be a better platoon partner for the left-handed-hitting corner outfielders, except he is even worse than Raburn in the field. All the Tigers need is a hitter for the DH spot. There is reportedly a chance Victor Martinez will be back in September, but the Tigers right now are fighting for a playoff spot, so they need help now. One solution for DH would be to get a real third baseman, and move either Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder to full-time DH, but it would be much easier to obtain a DH in the meantime. Perhaps Jim Thome will be available if and when the Phillies pack it in (if he does not hurt himself playing first base), perhaps there is someone else. Again, they just need a bat — it does not have to be awesome to improve on Delmon Young.
None of these spots offer a single “fix” for the Tigers. Any single move for any team is rarely going to make a big difference. Moreover, even if they make small improvements in each spot, the Tigers are still going to need som of their current regulars to play better than they have so far this season. However, despite the disappointments of the first part of the season, with plenty of season to play the Tigers are only slightly behind teams that are hardly perfect themselves, and improving a two or three of these areas is doable, and could potentially add a couple wins that might very well make the difference between making the playoffs and staying home.
It’s absolutely hilarious that the Tigers, with Miguel Cabrera AND Prince Fielder (not to mention fairly terrible defense all-around) have a hole at DH.
Yes, their lack of defense is likely hurting their starting pitching. They have the lowest defense efficiency rating (.669) in the AL since the 2008 Rangers, a team that gave up 5.97 runs per game.
The Tigers are built horribly, especially for the park they play in. They need OBP, speed, and defense, and have little of any of these.
I agree with your assessment here, but I think 2B, RP (not much after Valverde, Benoit….Coke?), then corner OF are most pressing needs. Problem is so many holes, not sure they can fill them all.
You realize that Comerica isn’t an extreme pitcher’s park, right? It’s been consistently average for years now.
You realize that’s not what I said, right? Large outfield makes speed/defense important. Has nothing to do with hitter/pitcher park.
The Tigers bullpen looks pretty deep to me. Valverde has been the main problem, yet you list him as an asset…try Villareal on for size – he’s for real. Below has been great all season, and Dotel will be back soon.
Tigers bullpen is very very good 4 deep (then Valverde), after that, atrocious.
The defense is truly truly awful, definitely the worst in the league. Austin Jackson (and Laird, when he plays) are the only above average fielders in the lineup. And Dirks and Peralta are the only others close to average.
Comerica park favors line drive hitters offensively, not fly ball hitters. Fielder acquisition aside, that is how the lineup is constructed. It also demands a left-fielder with center-fielder range, which the Tigers have never even tried to put out there.
Wouldn’t Alex Avila actually starting to hit the ball at all help out their situation? I know he is on the DL now, but he’s nowhere close to the 4.9 WAR player he was last season. That would be a huge help.
Then they could pick up an upgraded defensive third baseman and DH Cabrera (seems like getting rid of Brandon Inge was a bad idea). Boesch has been hitting the ball better as of late as well. I don’t think they are that far away, assuming Fister comes back healthy and Scherzer becomes competent.
Avila is at a 110wrc+, which is fine for a catcher. He’s not the problem. The problem consists in second base, bad defense, and Delmon Young sucking.
I agree that he is doing just fine for a catcher, but he was well above average as a catcher last season. He put up a 140wrc+, so he’s significantly below his production from last season. Besides his first full season in the majors (where he put up a 80wrc+), his full seasons as a professional (including minor leagues) have been 123, 128, and 140. For him to be at 110 just isn’t where he should be at. I’m not saying he’s the sole reason for the Tigers struggles, but he is a contributing factor that was not discussed in the article.
Brandon Inge was awful, both at hitting and his fielding had evaporated. Cabrera really isn’t that bad at 3rd base, especially considering how bad I was expecting him to be. Problem is, most teams can deal with one poor defender as long as they can hit, but given the rest if the Tigers infielders….. Cabrera isnt helping
Inge may not be the fielder he was five years ago, but Cabrera’s defensive stats are so bad (because he’s been a bad baserunner for years) that his WAR right now is only 1.5. Inge was at 0.9 for the season. It’s not like he would be that much of a downgrade. The guy that Cabrera would be replacing at DH, Delmon Young, has a -0.1.
To be fair, Inge’s WAR is inflated by some VERY unsustainable offensive performance (for him, at least).
However, on the defensive front, he’s put up positive fielding numbers for the last 5+ years or so, so he’d be a huge improvement over Miggy on that front.
Miggy has been a lot better than I thought at 3B and I think his UZR is a little low….he’s missed a few plays to his left but been excellent down the line and with bunts…..his throwing has been sensational so far this season. Prince has been awful, whoever’s been at 2B hasn’t been good (suprisingly includes Santiago), and Boesch has been awful in RF.
tldr; defense has been awful but not because of Miggy.
Cabrera’s UZR is so low compared to his actual performance in the field that it has me questioning whether it’s actually useful in his case. It seems entirely likely he’s doing something to break it.
I don’t think anyone who has seen him play thinks that Miggy’s D is actually -15 uzr/150 bad (which is not even as bad as people were suggesting he was going to be). He has a 0 DRS right now and he’s ‘looked’ decent out there. uzr takes a long long long time to stabilize into anything meaningful so I think Miggy is definitely not the problem on D.
It’s debatable whether Scherzer and Porcello should be entirely blamed for their struggles. The team – as a whole – is allowing a BABIP far above the league norm, and these storms have been localized above Mad Max and Kid Rick. Scherzer’s xFIP is 3.47, Porcello’s is 4.09. We put a lot of blame on team defense for that BABIP and for an inability to turn double plays and it’s probably not true that both parties aren’t getting the job done.
FYI: Dirks has a linger achilles injury, too … He’s eligible to come off the DL today, it doesn’t look like that’s actually going to happen.
More birdies
Not Funny, this is as painful as my last neck operation!
The need to also pray Al-Albeq comes back to the witch he was last year prior to injury as well!
I’ve heard Carlos Lee rumblings as the DH
sorry, and possibly Placido coming back to fill the 2b slot for his D and avg bat to boot-
Getting Kevin Youkilis from the Red Sox seemingly makes a lot of sense here. He’s a player that shouldn’t cost Detroit much of anything to acquire. They put him at first base where, even after injuries, he’s probably at least a competent defender and move Prince to DH. This improves their defense and if he can return to a level near his 2011 performance it probably improves their offense as well. Then, even if it doesn’t work out, what has it really cost them?
Both Prince and Cabrera don’t want to DH, which is why they’re both in the field. Maybe it’s not optimal, but it’s the reality. They’re not trading for someone to move Prince or Cabrera to DH, whoever they get will be a LF/DH.
The Tigers need…to wait out some pretty bad slumps from some key players.
Not saying that this team is flawless or that a trade or two wouldn’t help, but so many guys have been under-performing their career averages that mere positive regression from a few guys may be enough to capture the division.
Positive regression? Is that like jumbo shrimp?
Anyway, I think you’re wrong. Avila, Peralta, Delmon…all the career years were last year. Might they improve? Yeah, but this is essentially who they are.
Not referring to Avila or Peralta who have already bounced back (though Avila getting healthy will certainly help. I am referring more to guys like Delmon, Boesch, and the platoon at 2B, where guys are significantly under-performing what would be reasonable to expect from them.
Also, even with the poor defense, the difference between Porcello and Scherzer’s FIP and ERA will likely decrease. Add that to Fister’s return and there is room for improvement in the rotation as a whole.
Things can regress for the good, regress does not mean “get worse” it means “trend back towards to mean”. If someone is underperforming, they will regress back to their previous level of play just as someone who is over acheiving will regress as well.
Delmon Young has been a replacement player except for a slightly above average season two years ago and a solid rookie cup of tea debut. He sucked last year. He only hit a few “memorable” home runs in the playoffs.
Delmon young is a corner outfielder who doesn’t walk, doesn’t play defense and frankly….doesn’t even hit for power, he does however have an ill gotten reputation as a dangerous middle of the order hitter. Tiger fans love them some Delmon Young. They focus their hatred on public enemy number one, Austin “Not Quentin Berry” Jackson.
True,
Regression is to move BACK to the mean.. whereas
Progress is to move UP (to and beyond) the mean.
If a player is in regression, its to do less than what he was.. not more. Sure, he is going to the mean, but in a backwards direction.
How is Jackson due for plenty of regression? He’s only outperforming his career BABIP by 6 points. His plate discipline is clearly improving (both the pure BB% and K% as well as the peripheral stats associated with them) and while his HR/FB is higher than usual, 14% isn’t exactly unsustainable.
He made some big changes in his swing in the offseason and he’s simply hitting better as a result.
Because this is fangraphs. A stretch of good hitting will always regress if it proves the author’s point.
pfffffff. we have full *seasons* worth of data that suggest he’ll K 29% of the time. you forget that 25 year olds never improve.
Dotel getting healthy will help and both Marte and Villareal have been lights out since recall 2 weeks ago, and Below has done great as a long guy, with Papa getting on track and Benoit steadily very good. The bully is fine.
Acquisition wise? Frenchy from the Royals in RF, Boesch to DH and Delmon to the scrap heap. He’s the worst fielding OF I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen Manny and the old Johnny Damon. 2b is a black hole that we could move Jhonny to if we can pry Drew (if healthy) away from Gibby’s ahole owner as a rental….
Starting pitching wise? Porcello for whatever we can get for him. We can’t keep him and Max and Fister long term, and the latter two guys are clearly better players….Crosby nor Turner are ready but someone will be dumping a back end innings muncher soon….
all that won’t happen, but Ricky for Frenchy, and Oliver and a bully arm prospect not named Bruce Rondon for Drew…..be super happy with that
Are you a saber guy? Valverde actually sucks. He just gets “saves” with 3 run leads and gives up hits+runs during tie games. He’s close to a replacement level player the last two years.
Frenchy sucks. He was roughly average last year but there are several years of replacement level performance to temper his recent performance. Boesch can’t hit, even his “good” year in 2011 wasn’t impressive for a DH.
Porcello is fine. He’s a roughly average to slightly above average starter. Since he’s a ground ball pitcher the defense is killing him. Look at Scherzer’s xFIP also, he’s getting very unlucky this year.
Your post is one of the worse semi knowledgeable comments I’ve seen on fangraphs. End rant.
For a supposed “saber guy” you sure make a lot of claims with no statistical backing. Boesch, career 101 wRC+ “can’t hit.”? Valverde, with a 3.57 career FIP, sucks? Seems like an overstatement.
And the original poster said that only good things about Scherzer, so I am unsure what bringing up his xFIP does.
And Frenchy has been way above replacement in 3 of his seasons.
In conclusion, your post is one of the worse semi knowledgeable responses I’ve seen on fangraphs. End rant.
1) Valverde ERA in save situations 2011-2012 1.25, non save? 5.95
2) Saber guys need to watch games and do payroll management too. Ricky is a soft stuff guy w/o an out pitch. He is nowhere near a MLB average starter. My eye test is better than your xFIP on Ricky. Maybe he gets it all figured out at age 26…by then he will have been paid another$20m in arby and will be a FA looking for a 5/65 type deal…The Tigers already have what he is supposed to be…his name is Fister. I’d rather spend $15m more on Max in arby and see if he can harness his talent….and so will the Tigers given they choose power arms over junkballers at every level It looks clear that they want Smyly and Turner as cost control back end guys with upside. Ricky is 23 and can be bait for a win now siuation…
The rest of your nonsense has already been jumped upon…
also in thread elsewhere-
No one anywhere is eating even half of Soriano’s deal..dream on…and the last thing the tigers need is a low average and OBP horrible fielding LF, especially one that is getting paid 3x/season what Elmon is for twice as long.
Frenchy isn’t an ideal, but you have to deal for who can be had for what you want to give up….and Quentin is another Elmon-like player…Frenchy’s RF defense with a decent stick and decent wheels is a huge upgrade over Elmon right now if u shift BB to DH and get some combo of Berry/Dirks/Raburn in LF….
Thome makes a lot of sense for them. The Phillies have said they aren’t going to play Jim at first, but he can clearly still hit. After inter-league, he’s going to wallow away on the bench. The Tigers only need a stopgap at DH until VMart comes back, and sure enough, Thome’s on a 1 year deal. Finally, he’s basically useless to the Phillies after inter-league is over, so they have very little leverage. The Phillies desperately need a righty out of the bullpen, so if the Tigers can come up with someone that’s better than Qualls (and honestly, who isn’t?) it could help both sides.
Soriano and Dempster? (Tigers eat all the money)
Maybe for Porcello? (would the Cubs roll the dice hoping a change of scenery helps Porcello?)
They need some positive regression, that’s it. Better defense would be ideal but that’s not going to happen. Leyland just needs to not be senile enough to keep playing DY in LF. Even with the expected uptick in performance they still might not be better than the White Sox, everything that went wrong for them last year has basically been fully corrected and Chris Sale is apparently an ace caliber pitcher.
The Tigers Need… Inge. Can anyone give a reasonable explanation as to why Inge was cut before Raburn? There’s honestly no reason for Miggy to play in the field at any position.
The first — and most obvious reason — is that Raburn’s offensive upside is much, much higher than Brandon Inge’s. If you seriously believe that the Tigers would be even slightly better with Inge, then I don’t even know what to tell you — it’s just not true.
Also, Cabrera’s not nearly the problem that Prince Fielder is on defense. Cabby’s been much better than most expected. UZR hates him, but it’s hardly a useful stat with less than a half season as a sample size.