The Top 50 National League Prospects

Following up the recent Top 10 lists for each club in Major League Baseball, we now have the Top 50 prospects in the National League. Yesterday, we looked at the American League Top 50 prospects. Tomorrow, we’ll combine them together and see how the Top 100 MLB Prospects list breaks down.

The Top 10 NL Prospects
1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
3. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
4. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
5. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
7. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Colorado Rockies
8. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
9. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
10. Aroldis Chapman, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

Just Missed the Top 10
11. Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins
12. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Chicago Cubs
13. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
14. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado Rockies
15. Devaris Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Derek Norris, C, Washington Nationals
17. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
19. Julio Teheran, RHP, Altanta Braves
20. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

The Middle of the Pack
21. Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets
22. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
23. Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs
24. Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros
25. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
26. Zach Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco Giants
27. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta Braves
28. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros
29. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
30. Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates

31. Ike Davis, 1B/OF, New York Mets
32. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York Mets
33. Simon Castro, RHP, San Diego Padres
34. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Colorado Rockies
35. Brandon Allen, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
36. Thomas Neal, OF, San Francisco Giants
37. Jio Mier, SS, Houston Astros
38. Ethan Martin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
39. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Florida Marlins
40. Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals

The Final 10 NL Prospects
41. Logan Forsythe, 3B, San Diego Padres
42. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Chicago Cubs
43. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
44. Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
45. Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds
46. Andrew Lambo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
47. Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
48. Jaff Decker, OF, San Diego Padres
49. Jay Jackson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
50. Trevor May, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies




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Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospect analysis. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.


67 Responses to “The Top 50 National League Prospects”

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  1. Claude says:

    No love for your countryman, Aumont?

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  2. Joe R says:

    Vitters at #23?

    Too much bust potential IMO for top 25.

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    • John says:

      He also has the tools to be an elite hitter. Vitters lack of patience is well documented and if it doesn’t improve it will be exploited at higher levels to some degree. That’s understood. On the flipside, Vitters has off-the-charts hand-eye coordination and plate coverage…perhaps more so than anyone on this list. He put up good numbers as a 19 year old mostly swinging at pitcher’s pitches. The thought is if he can develop some modicum of patience, he’ll get better pitches to drive. He’ll never walk like Albert Pujols, but if he’s at least swinging at pitches in the zone with those god-given hitting tools, he’s going to be a monster at the plate. He’d be an elite hitter even if he had to move to first. At #23 you’re splitting the difference. He’s a high risk, high reward player. He could be a bust, he could be Howie Kendrick, or he could be a perennial top tier hitter at an offense-heavy position. You have to take his upside into as much consideration as his downside…putting him somewhere in the middle of this list seems about right.

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  3. Drakos says:

    Just wondering why James Darnell is ahead of Jaff Decker on the Padres top 10 list but Decker makes this list and Darnell doesn’t.

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    • Brandon says:

      For some reason the Padres prospects get all messed up. Seriously, where’s Tate??? And don’t give me “2009 Draft Picks aren’t included,” look no further than #2…

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      • Will says:

        Marc has explained this several times before. Strasburg was the one exception, because he was very clearly a top prospect. But that explanation doesn’t really hold up when he includes Ackley and Chapman, who signed months after the draft.

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      • Marc Hulet says:

        Sigh. In the Washington Top 10, I said that I was making a special case for Strasburg given, well, that should be obvious…

        And yes, draftees from ’09 are in this list but I am not as huge on Tate as some of the other people… prep kid, lack of pro experience and is coming back from two injuries. He’s not that far off of the Top 50 though… After writing the Top 10s, I had a change of heart on Darnell/Decker and decided to switch them, as seen in the Top 50.

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  4. jonnybardo says:

    In seems that Jose Tabata has been on top prospect lists since the Slicky Willy was in office.

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  5. B says:

    Something I’ve been curious about – why is Stanton so high (more like – why is he ahead of Posey)? I can see why he’s such a highly regarded prospect, with his success at such a young age – I do get it, but it just seems to me like the maybe positional adjustment isn’t being applied enough in this case. Basically, Posey is a pretty good prospect himself – to simply equal Posey, Stanton will have to be a ~2 WAR better player than him – do you really project Stanton to be 2 WAR better than Posey, given all the information you use to evaluate prospects, and accouting for Posey being closer to the Majors and thus a safer bet?

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    • B says:

      “Stanton will have to be a ~2 WAR better player than him”

      (I mean 2 WAR before the positional adjustment)

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      • The A Team says:

        Should we be considering positional adjustments for these kinds of lists? After all, this isn’t Bryan Smith’s better analysis of prospects. It’s a rough ordering of good prospects based on the author’s set of preferences.

        I understand your point and I had a similar reaction (I just think Posey is a better prospect than Stanton any way you cut it right now). At the same time, aren’t 3rd and 4th really operationally equivalent?

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      • B says:

        I would think we want to consider it, right? I mean, it’s going to affect their overall value – a guy with X hitting ability that can play average defense is a more desirable prospect if his average defense is at C than a guy with the same hitting ability that plays average D at 1B (or any other position besides C, for that matter)…so I don’t see any reason not to factor it in.

        “At the same time, aren’t 3rd and 4th really operationally equivalent?”

        They probably are. I dunno, I guess it just seems to be equal you have to project Stanton’s hitting to be ~20 runs better than Posey’s (assuming average D from both, not sure how Stanton’s D is supposed to rate). I don’t know a whole lot about prospect evaluation/projection, but given what Stanton’s done was at a low level compared to Posey’s success at a high level, that seems pretty….bold….to claim, right now with what we know, that Stanton will be a 20 run better hitter than Posey, on average (which basically makes them equal prospects).

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      • Marc Hulet says:

        These lists are a rough jumping off point for a larger prospect project that we have in the works, involving all the prospect mavens on the site… so stay tuned. There is method to our madness…

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      • B says:

        Alright thanks for the update. Look forward to it.

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  6. JayCee says:

    No Drew Storen? Closers get little love in here. In Fantasy-land, I’m glad to have Storen on my minor league (keeper) roster.

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  7. Rob says:

    Every. Freaking. Time.

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  8. Snake the Jake says:

    Todd Frazier????

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  9. wanderinredsfan says:

    No Todd Frazier, when every other list has him as #1 or #2 for the Reds’ system? Even if you think Chapman and Alonso are better (I might tend to agree), I’m pretty sure he’s a better prospect, ceiling and floor, than Heisey and/or Leake. Seems like Frazier should be solidly in ‘the middle of the pack’. Color me confused.

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    • Snake the Jake says:

      His omission had to be a mistake.

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      • Marc Hulet says:

        Frazier was not a mistake omission… He’s a solid regular without a position… He could change my mind but he needs a big year in 2010.

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      • wanderinredsfan says:

        ‘lack of position’ is not a negative for a player with such exceptional versatility that Frazier possesses. Ask Paul Molitor, George Brett, or Pete Rose whether their ‘lack of position’ hurt or helped their careers?

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      • Eric Palmer says:

        Just because three HOF talents didn’t have a position, doesn’t mean that this player without a true position will be worth anything. For every Rose, there are 50+ good hitters without a true position that falter or will be/were at best simply mediocre players.

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  10. Marver says:

    Andrew Cashner should not be a near this top prospects list. Older prospect without dazzling strikeout rates and has a high walk rate. His balls-in-play data looks good — particularly the homerun rate — but I can’t see how anyone can justify Cashner is a better prospect than nearly everyone below him in these top 50.

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  11. Tom says:

    Andrew Cashner #12? Baseball America has him at 95, Baseball Prospectus didn’t rank him, B rating from John Sickels and 79th by Keith Law. You are seriously going against the consensus view.

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    • Marc Hulet says:

      Trust me. I know the other lists… I have a database with everyone’s opinion … and I do know I like him more than almost anyone… we’ll see…It would be safe of me to just go along with everyone, right? Those that rank him much lower see him as a reliever; I think he can start.

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  12. Gilbert says:

    #10. Aroldis Chapman, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

    Chapman is a lefty. It is probably a testament to the usual good quality that I had to look it up before posting this.

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    • Marc Hulet says:

      Good catch. The scouting report I wrote for him does identify him as a lefty… just a quick inputting error that we missed… thanks.

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  13. Peter says:

    curious where Bryce Harper would be in all these AL/NL rankings?

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    • Mike says:

      No lower than 3

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      • OremLK says:

        Not necessarily true. There are dissenting opinions about him even being the first overall pick in the draft, and the consensus seems to be that he is not anywhere close to the prospect Strasburg was for 2009. I could easily see him being outside the top 5, maybe even the top 10.

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  14. don says:

    How big is the gap between Strasburg/Heyward and the rest of the field?

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    • Marc Hulet says:

      Strasburg and Heyward both have a chance to be generational talents… the cliff then falls to possible superstars. Take that for what it’s worth.

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      • coltholt says:

        So are you implying that Chapman isn’t a generational talent? The questions about him are diminishing as he has come straight into camp dominating hitters. (He struck out the first batter that he faced on fastballs at 94, 96, and 100…then throwing a change-up at 80 later in the game). There were many questions about him before he signed, but this spring has answered so many questions. I just read today an estimate that, knowing what teams know now, Chapman would have likely gotten above $40 million. It is even possible that Chapman could make you eat your words by All-Star break.

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  15. Brandon says:

    How is it possible that the Padres Donovan Tate is on the top of almost every Padres top-10 prospect list, but he doesn’t appear in the top-50 in the NL?

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  16. cpebbles says:

    Just pointing out once again that I am the only Heyward-doubter on the planet, so when he hits his CHONE projection and everyone is wondering what the hell happened I’m going to be very smug. Be warned.

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    • B says:

      More important than whether you can guess right in a sample size of one is the process behind it – why do you doubt Heyward deserves his prospect status?

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      • cpebbles says:

        Don’t like his swing and never did.

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      • Alex says:

        What do you not like about his swing? I understand the lack of loft limits his HR potential to a certain extent (absolute ceiling of 40-45, most likely a 25-35 guy), but by keeping his swing so short and compact he is able to completely dominate the strike zone in a way that no 20 year old has done in a long, long time. The only two guys I think that had arguably had better offensive floors (I know there are guys with who had higher ceilings) at this age are A-rod and Griffey.

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      • cpebbles says:

        The lack of any loft is a big part of it. I personally doubt he even gets into the routine 25-35 range.

        Not even sure what you mean with him dominating the strike zone. I understand he’s been young, but if his swing mechanics limit his upside there is less value in that. The guy’s case for the top spot is built entirely on his age and a 2-month AA stint which was the only time he’s really showed exciting peripherals as a pro.

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      • Alex says:

        I’m sorry, but that’s just insane. You doubt he even gets into the 25-35 HR range? He hit 17 HR last year in just 96 games, which works out to ~28 over the course of a full season. He was 19 at the time. This is now the 2nd ST where he has shown amazing raw power in batting practice (regularly hitting 430-450 line drives) and the ability to take ML pitchers deep.

        My whole point about Heyward’s swing and dominating the strike zone is that even if his HR ceiling is somewhat limited, his upside really isn’t because of how he can dominate the strike zone. He just doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone and he rarely swings at a pitch and misses. He didn’t swing at a pitch and miss this spring training until the 4th game. I believe he has now swung and missed 4 or 5 times in 23 PA. He has 6 BB, 3 XBH, and 1 SO.

        Now to the most asinine point you made (and the one that makes me question if you may just be a troll). Do you honestly believe that Heyward’s AA performance is the only time he’s shown exciting peripherals? As an 18 year old he posted a 9.6% BB rate, a 16.5% K rate, a .160 ISO, and 145 wRC+. Fast forward to last year in A+ and he improved to 9.8%, 15.9%, .222, and 148 wRC+. Then he went on an the insane AA run where he jumped to 14.4%, 11.4%, .259, and 192. Go compare those numbers to uber hitting prospect and arguably 80 contact 80 power prospect Jesus Montero. Heyward basically wins on every count. Besides, isn’t the fact that he has shown real improvement at every stop and then become completely dominant while making what’s supposed to be the toughest transition in the minors a good thing? It simply seems that Heyward is someone who actually fairs better against more advanced pitching (likely because of his advanced approach, pitch recognition, and the fact that he’s more of a type 2 power hitter).

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    • Aaron B. says:

      Not enough power in his swing or what?

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    • Reuben says:

      You are a tool. So you are saying that a line drive hitter limits his ceiling? How about when he is a chiseled 250 at 24 years old? How was that swing when he hit a 450 foot homer in ST a few days ago?

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      • B says:

        Why the hostility? Someone has a different opinion than you, it happens. When people are willing to discuss those opinions reasonably and in depth is when you get quality conversations….

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      • Alex says:

        The problem is cpebbles isn’t discussing his opinion reasonably and in depth. He’s telling everyone he’s smarter then they are with regards to Heyward because Heyward doesn’t generate a ton of fly balls. He’s acting like this is some sort of new information and if more people realized it they would agree with him. The problem is that prospect mavens already know this, but realize its not a true issue long term.

        First, a lack of fly balls only really limits Heyward’s HR ceiling, which is a fairly minor issue because greater loft would similarly limit Heyward’s contact ceiling. Second, Heyward doesn’t need a ton of loft to hit for good power because of his ability to work the count, get a pitch to drive, and square it up. He doesn’t need to go up there swinging for the fences to knock it out. There’s a reason we’re constantly hearing about the 450 foot rocket LD homers he’s hitting. Third, he’s 20 years old and far from a finished product. If need be I doubt he’d struggle to add loft to his swing in order to hit more HRs, but it would likely come at the expense of strikeouts average, and OBP. Just because he plays a certain way doesn’t mean he can’t play another.

        Personally, I find this sort of commentary especially annoying because the commenter has no idea what he is talking about. From a mechanical perspective, Heyward’s swing is one of the best I ever remember seeing from a player this young. Combined with his plate discipline and pitch recognition, I think it gives him true plus-plus potential in contact, power, and batting eye. Hearing someone pretend like they’re smarter than everyone else because they “noticed” the lack of loft in his swing is annoying and insulting.

        This is the exact model I think every young player should be given for where they need to be positioned as they begin their swing:
        http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/cnishared/tools/shared/mediahub/00/15/48/slideshow_1481504_1.jpg

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    • Temo says:

      Wait, I’m confused. His CHONE projection is for a 1.1 WAR season in a half season of playing time. For a 20 year old, that’s pretty damn good. Justin Upton was worth 0.7 WAR in 2008 as a 20 year old, in about a half season of play.

      How would that be a disappointment?

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      • cpebbles says:

        Because the only debate about him today is which rung of the Hall of Fame he ends up in. CHONE projects him as reasonably close to league-average, which is going to be a catastrophe in the minds of most. I happen to agree with it, but I don’t think he’s going to develop at the pace you’d expect most batters his age.

        Incidentally, for someone who’s seen much of him the past year + ST, how is his power on offspeed pitches? I can’t find the old pre-draft scouting videos any longer, but my recollection is that he gets ahead of himself with his timing.

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  17. neuter_your_dogma says:

    Braves look stacked.

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  18. Neil says:

    I’m happy to see Derek Norris so high, since he has yet to play at High A. Is the consensus that he will be able to improve his receiving enough to remain at catcher?

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  19. Ivdown says:

    Lambo in the top 100? First time i’ve seen that this winter. Then again, you guys aren’t including 09 draftees, so I’d imagine he might slip to outside the top 60 if 09 draftees were included.

    I think it’s ridiculous that Chris Withrow isn’t on this list and wasn’t 1 or 2 on the Dodgers list, but all in all it’s not a big deal.

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  20. John says:

    Interesting list. These things are always subjective so you’re always going to have a difference of opinion. Some lean toward scouting, while others think sabermetrics is the best way to gauge talent. I think this list is a good combination of both. A couple of observations: With regard to Cashner being ranked higher than most places, I’m going to guess that the author views him as a starter, where he’d have frontline stuff. BA, BP, and Law all view him as a reliever which would lessen his value. As for Todd Frazier, we’re looking at a guy who isn’t good enough defensively to play SS, not good enough offensively to be a top 3rd baseman, and not good enough period to supplant Brandon Phillips at 2b, provided he takes to the position this spring. He may be a good player but it’s hard to see him at the upper echelon at his position…whatever that position ends up being.

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    • wanderinredsfan says:

      Re. Frazier: The thing is, he IS good enough to play all infield positions adequately (even SS) in addition to the corner-outfield positions. He may not be able to supplant a gold-glover like Phillips or Rolen, but his value is in his bat, baseball IQ, and positional versatility. His versatility is a positive, especially on a team with aging starters at third and SS.

      I tend to believe his versatility adds more value to him as a prospect than say the negative discount that should be given to players like Alonso, Wallace, or Smoak who are likely restricted to first-base. I mean, would it be better if Frazier played LF or first-base only? It certainly doesn’t help him get to the big-leagues any quicker.

      The other prognosticators seem to value Frazier much more highly than the current author. It just seems silly to discount Frazier’s value due to a ‘lack of position’. It’s not his fault that mngt. wants to use him as a ‘super-utility-infielder’ as a means to expedite his arrival to the big leagues. I’m sure Frazier would prefer a stable position to hone his skills, but I’d be willing to bet that he prefers getting to bigs a bit more.

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      • wanderinredsfan says:

        Along the line of thinking regarding ‘lack of position': Can anyone name me Pete Rose’s sole ‘position’ during his career? Paul Molitor? George Brett?

        ‘Lack of position’ didn’t really hurt their careers? They could just hit and we’re just ball-players. I’m not trying to compare Frazier to any of the aforementioned’s greatness, I’m just stating that Frazier’s lack of position is not a negative. Frazier just hits and is just a ball-player.

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      • John says:

        Not saying Frazier isn’t a good player, just that unless he finds a position and becomes competent at it, he’s not going to be in the top tier no matter where he plays. If he moves to LF or 1b, there will be other guys that simply produce more offensively. The standard for offense at those positions are higher. If he plays SS or 2b, he’s likely to be below average defensively compared to his peers. You don’t have to have a position to be a great player — but if that’s the case, you have to be an elite hitter, like Molitor was. No one thinks Frazier is at that level. Frazier’s best shot is at 3b. He should have the defensive range to play there and he’ll hit well enough for that position to be considered a good overall 3rd baseman.

        I’m guessing you’re probably a Reds fan, so it’s natural to develop an attachment to your own players. So let me use a similar example with the Cubs: Josh Vitters. Vitters has a chance to be an elite hitter if he develops some patience, if not he could be a guy who hits .285-.300 with about 25 hrs and an OBP that depends largely on his batting average. (He could also be a complete bust, but that’s not relevant for this comparison). That’s pretty good production out of your third baseman. However, there is some question as to whether he’s good enough defensively to stay at 3b. If he doesn’t improve offensively AND has to move to first base, suddenly those numbers don’t look so great compared to other first baseman like Teixeira, Fielder or A-Gon. Above average maybe compared to the rest of the league, but he won’t be the elite player the Cubs certainly hope he will be.

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      • Jay Wells says:

        George Brett didn’t have a position? You’re going to have to fill me in on that one. He was a 3B, period, until he was too old/injury-prone to field the position, when he moved across the diamond and then to DH. That’s a pretty common career arc, IMHO. Your points about Molitor and Rose still stand, though.

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  21. Ummm says:

    These lists are really interesting, like in the same way it is interesting that the trash gets picked up every tuesday. It is kind of amazing if you think about it, you throw out some garbage, and on a specific day it all gets picked up. Here, though, we sit a couple of weeks away from opening day, so its time to finish our prospects lists. I doubt there are many, if actually any of us reading this, actually have seen more than 3 of these guys. Certainly aren’t any of us that can differentiate the abilities of these guys. For example, what really is the difference between No. 27 A. Vizcaino and No. 50 T. May? They look the same to me…
    I think I like the Sickels letter grade ranking system the best, this numbering rank system is just too wishy-washy.

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  22. John says:

    A letter grade system, really? The same somewhat subjective, vague, outdated evaluation method our school system has been using for ages? At any rate, it doesn’t really matter. These lists or grades or whatever… are just for fun and to create discussion. No one should take any of it as gospel.

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  23. Drew says:

    You don’t even include Wheeler in the Giants’ top 10 prospects but on this list he’s #26 in the NL? Esplain

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  24. John says:

    Where did or would Fernando Martinez have ranked last year?

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  25. andy says:

    ok jason heyward’s chone pojection for wrc+ is 98. we’re talking about a 20 year old with a league average bat. bill james (optimistic) has him at 127. Also, cpebbles i would say a 19 year old with a 10% walk rate 16% k rate and a .220 iso are indeed “exciting peripherals”( his A+ ball numbers), so lets not pretend he came out of nowhere and ripped it up in AA and now everybody thinks he’s the second coming of jesus (who couldn’t hit a curveball).

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  26. GregD says:

    My question with respect to the Todd Frazier omission: how is he #2 on your Reds top 10 list (between Alonso & Heisey) but doesn’t make your top 50 list that has both Alonso and Heisey?

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cincinnati-reds-top-10-prospects/

    Have you changed your Reds rankings since December 3rd? Or was there a different criteria for the top 50 list?

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  27. Cappy2 says:

    Worst list I’ve ever seen…Wheres Montero?? Tabata??? Really? This guy needs to get a clue.

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