Tim Lincecum To Scrap His Slider?
It looks like Tim Lincecum is going to put his slider in his ‘back pocket,’ at least to start the season. Manager Bruce Bochy speculated that the reasoning behind the move was that the pitch “probably puts a little more stress on his arm” and that his star pitcher was saving his bullets for the long season.
This will be a decision that will surely be revisited no matter which way the season unfolds, but it’s not as if the slider has been one of his best two pitches recently. Fastballs and changeups make up almost 80% of his repertoire, and it’s the changeup that has helped him remain dominant as his fastball speed has dipped in recent years.
But the implications of the decision — for both the pitcher and the sport — are important.
For one, by both pitch classifications on this site, Lincecum threw more sliders last year than he had so far in his Major League career. His 15.6% usage of the pitch (BIS pitch types) last year was almost double his previous high, even. By linear weights, the results were strong, and yet now he’s willing to scrap the pitch. Seen in the prism of his reduced velocity this year, this could be a worrisome indicator of his underlying health.
Two Spring Training starts ago, I witnessed Lincecum’s radar readings in person, and he only once hit 93 with his fastball. That has jibed with this spring’s general assessment that he’s sitting closer to 91 MPH than the 92+ he showed last season. And that number was even the second-worst of his career. Could he be losing the slider because he’s already hurting?
Both the pitcher and his manager were sure to affirm that this was not the case. As quoted by Andrew Baggarly:
Asked a follow-up question about Lincecum’s health, Bochy insisted that the two-time Cy Young award winner has no physical issues. It’s true, Lincecum hasn’t thrown hard this spring. But that is not atypical. He often starts out slow before zipping 94 mph on the gun when the season begins. More important, he says, is location of his two-seamer so he can get ahead of hitters and try for more efficient, contact outs.
It’s still cause for concern, though. (That will always be true for Lincecum. People will always be at the ready to predict a breakdown. Story of his life.)
If he’s healthy, and trying to preemptively make this move in order to remain that way, it’s rare to be so open about the reasoning behind such a change. Could this become a trend? Is baseball becoming more aware of the added stress certain pitches put on the elbow? Even though the PITCH F/x era has provided a short sample, preliminary research on this site has found that both sliders and curves are tough on the joint. Perhaps more pitchers that have the luxury of scrapping one of these pitches will begin to do so.
Lincecum is not giving up on the curve, which might be as stressful for his elbow as the slider, and that might be the final lesson he’s provided us today. He can be fastidious about his delivery. He can use weight training to balance his body correctly. He can watch his nutrition. He can even scrap one pitch that is perhaps problematic for his health. But he still has to hurl a ball 90+ MPH, he still has to snap off the occasional curveball, and he still has to throw the dang ball.
And one thing baseball has showed us that if you continue to throw Major League pitches, you’ll eventually see a Major League trainer. You can only do so much to try and avoid that trip.
I thought Lincy had a rubber arm…
It will be interesting to project out Lincecum’s stats and see what happens in the next few years around him needing a new contract
Matt Cain on the other hand has seen decreased velocity but increased effectiveness..What is Cain worth for his next contract?
I projected out his stats through 2018 and then converted that into WAR and a fair value contract amount. Check out my numbers and analysis by clicking on my name.
If I were a gambling man, I’d say he’s worth about 5 years and 112.5 million. Pure conjecture, really
why gamble when you can click on peter’s name and find out his results? he even tells you to.
you realize that was sarcasm…as I quoted his exact contract terms?
always cooler to not explain your joke.
Cain just inked a 5 year deal with the Giants for 100MM plus a 7.5MM signing bonus. I think there may be a club option for year 6 as well. The Giants think that Cain is worth about 22 million a year, so there.
This probably means that the Lincecum extension or FA contract negotiations start at $25MM per. I’d imagine he’ll want at least a 5 year deal as well. Anyone out there willing to pay Timmy 5/125? That’s probably his ask.
My only question – why the hell would he tell us this?
Want to save your arm from some of the damage of throwing the Slider, sure, knock yourself out. But sending a memo around to all the guys on the other bench seems, well, just foolish.
Let them figure it out on their own, you moron…
Unless he’s really not scrapping it – and he’s just going to use it when you least expect it. Genius..
I think this article is a bit misleading. Timmy actually said he hasn’t thrown the slider in a Spring Training GAME (he has in the bullpen) because he already has a great feel for it. He believes he has the best control over the slider.
Now the fastball on the other hand…
“But he’s leaving it in his back pocket to start the season. He said he doesn’t need the extra wrinkle.
But there’s another reason he’ll limit himself to fastballs, curves and his signature split-change when he starts Friday’s season opener at Arizona.”
Dunno, I see something more substantial than just ST usage.
“Seen in the prism of his reduced velocity this year, this could be a worrisome indicator of his underlying health.”
Didn’t his velocity actually increase in 2011. I believe it was around the same level as it was during his 2009 Cy Young season.
I find it hard to believe that he’d leave it off the table. If he’s in a jam at any point on opening day he’ll probably go back to the 4 pitch mix. Why would he limit himself?
Timmayyy doesn’t need to throw 95 to dominate… If the Giants aren’t interested in paying him $125 over 5 years, I’m sure the Dodgers will…
Kershaw and Lincecum… My gosh
conventional wisdom has it that the slider puts the most stress on the elbow because it doesn’t allow the pitcher to pronate upon delivery. I guess this makes sense, probably not worth the risk of injury for someone who uses it as sparingly as he does
Unexplained velocity loss, scrapping his slider, change of approach for no reason, etc. These are all warning signs before learning of a pitchers arm problems.
Comments like “he does not need to throw 95 to get outs” reminds me of Pineda before going on the DL.
“He can be fastidious about his delivery. He can use weight training to balance his body correctly. He can watch his nutrition.”
-Not sure how much of this applies to Lincecum. He was famous for eating In ‘N Out burgers. He changed his diet, finally, in 2011, but not sure how much better it got. Just because he switched off fast food doesn’t mean he actually went on a nutritious diet. Also, last year was the first year he started taking training more seriously, too, adding his long toss regimen back in, etc.
One wonders how he would do if he would take all the off-the-field baseball stuff as seriously as some others with fanatical work ethics. But then again, that can be said for some of the greatest players to ever play the game.
I think it applies because of those decisions. As in, he’s trying these different things now, perhaps as he realizes that age will take velocity from him. And I also used ‘can’ in this way: these are the things he can do, and it may yet not matter.
“That has jived with this spring’s general assessment that he’s sitting closer to 91 MPH than the 92+ he showed last season.”
Jibed. You’ve been cited.
gah. got it.
“People will always be at the ready to predict a breakdown. Story of his life.”
Story of any pitcher’s life, really…
Articles like this remind me that Randy Johnson was a once in a lifetime pitcher: threw that slider till the day he retired.
Dr. James Andrews’ organization (www.asmi.org) has found, through scientific testing, that a curve puts less stress on a pitcher’s arm than a fastball, while a slider puts more stress. Adjusted for pitch counts, curveballs are not associated with arm injuries while sliders are. Good things to keep in mind for younger pitchers.