Top 10 Prospects: The Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals
2010 MLB Record: 69-93 (5th in the NL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 18th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
The Prospects
1. Bryce Harper C/OF
Acquired: 2010 1st round (Las Vegas JC)
Pro Experience: None
2010 MiLB Level: Arizona Fall League
Opening Day Age: 18
Estimated Peak WAR: 7.0
Notes: In his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League, Harper hit .343/.410/.629 in nine games (35 at-bats). He showed some patience with four walks but also whiffed 11 times. It’s an encouraging start to his pro career. In the AFL, Harper was getting out on his front foot and that was throwing off his timing and balance. He’s definitely going to have to learn to stay back on off-speed pitches as he moves up the ladder. Against lesser pitching he can simply rely on his raw power and bat speed to compensate. If I’m going to nitpick, I might level out his shoulders a bit to help his swing plane. Drafted as a high school-aged catcher, his bat projects to play at any position on the diamond and he’s expected to play the outfield in pro ball. Harper is expected to move through the minors quickly, but that could be about three years as top prep hitters usually need about four full seasons in the minors. He’s spent a year in junior college but Harper is the same age as a high school player.
2. Derek Norris, C
Acquired: 2007 4th round (Kansas HS)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0
Notes: Norris, 21, had a breakout season in low-A ball in ’09 but injuries slowed his follow-up effort in 2010. At high-A, he hit .235/.419/.419 in 298 at-bats. His ISO rate dropped from .227 to .185 but he continued to show a strong understanding of the strikeout zone and an ability to get on-base at a desirable clip. Norris had a walk rate of 22.3 BB%, which was almost 8% higher than any other hitter in the league (250+ at-bats). Norris’ power output comes with a trade-off, striking out at a clip of 31.5%. If that keeps up, he’ll likely struggle to hit for average at the MLB level, but he should still spend a lot of time on-base. Norris has a quiet stance with no moving parts, keeping his feet close together. He looks focused on the pitcher and watches the ball into the catcher’s glove. Norris projects to be an offensive-minded starting catcher but his defense is actually pretty good. He threw out more than 50% of base runners but needs to sharpen his receiving and game-calling skills.
3. A.J. Cole, RHP
Acquired: 2010 4th round (Florida HS)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: Short-season
Opening Day Age: 19
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Notes: Cole was swayed away from the University of Miami by a $2 million pro contract. His repertoire includes a low-to-mid-90s fastball, solid curveball, and a changeup. Cole pitched just one inning during his pro debut but could open 2011 in low-A ball if he has a strong spring. He is rail thin and his delivery has some effort to it so the organization will want to be cautious with this talented arm. He throws with a three-quarter arm angle and has a long stride. He has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation starter but Cole also has a long way to go.
4. Danny Espinosa, SS/2B
Acquired: 2008 3rd round (Long Beach State U)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.5
Notes: Espinosa has a simple stance and approach at the plate. He has some movement in his bat but he has his hands in a good position to put a solid swing on the ball, which helps him generate good pop despite a modest build. Espinosa will likely hit 10-15 homers in the Majors but he could flirt with some 20-homer seasons unless he adjusts his approach to be a No. 2 hitter. He may not hit for a high average because he strikes out a lot (24.4 K% in AA) but he does get on base a fair bit, too. Along with some pop, Espinosa offers some stolen base ability and could nab 10-15 in a full big league season. On defense, he flashes a solid glove and a strong arm. He could end up at either second base or shortstop.
5. Sammy Solis, LHP
Acquired: 2010 2nd round (U of San Diego)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: A-
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.5
Notes: Solis looks like a big, strong innings-eater at 6’5” 230 lbs. There are some health concerns with the southpaw, though, as he’s struggled with back problems. His repertoire is average and his heater sits 88-92 mph. Solis also flashes a plus changeup and good curveball. He’s a strike thrower and could move quickly through the lower levels of the minors. Solis pitches with a low-three-quarter or side-arm delivery. He has a nice, smooth arm action with little effort. He pitched just four regular season innings after signing his first pro contract but he could start out the season in high-A ball.
6. Wilson Ramos, C
Acquired: 2004 non-drafted free agent (Venezuela)
Pro Experience: 6 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Notes: The Twins organization was able to deal Ramos to the Nationals thanks to the presence of All-Star Joe Mauer behind the dish. The young catcher had a solid season in 2010 and caught some attention with a solid MLB debut. He’s always maintained a solid batting average in the minors but he was also aided by high BABIPs – something that rarely happens with slow-footed catchers at the MLB level. His overly-aggressive approach (4.1 BB% in AAA for the Twins) will also hurt his ability to maintain a respectable triple-slash line. Ramos possesses line-drive power right now but could grow into 15-20 homer power with regular playing time. He has a level stance and shows a nice line-drive swing. He has power but doesn’t try to hit home runs. He has some bat speed and can really turn on the inside pitch. Defensively, Ramos has a strong arm that allows him to throw out a lot of base runners, and he also has good receiving skills.
7. Eury Perez, OF
Acquired: 2007 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0
Notes: Perez, 20, has posted solid numbers in North America over the past two seasons. He hit .381/.443/.503 in ’09 and .298/.344/.380 in ’10. His batting averages have been helped by strong BABIPS: .418 and .355. Unlike Ramos, Perez possesses plus speed that will help him maintain strong BABIP rates in the Majors. The outfielder doesn’t walk enough (4.7 BB%) and strikes out too much (16.9 K%) but he stole 64 bases in 77 attempts. He’s raw and still has a lot of work to do but he could end up as an impact hitter if he can sharpen his approach; right now he’s pretty much a hollow singles hitter with speed. Despite hitting from the right side, Perez gets out of the box quickly. On bunts, he almost looks like he’s running before the ball makes contact with the bat. He does lean out over the plate a little too much at times and could benefit from standing a little taller. He’s a strong defender, who good develop into a plus fielder.
8. Yunesky Maya, RHP
Acquired: 2010 non-drafted free agent (Cuba)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: R/A+/AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 29
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0
Notes: Maya, 29, is a little old for a typical rookie but he was a highly-touted Cuban hurler prior to signing with the Nationals. The right-hander may not have been in tip-top shape when he pitched 26.0 innings in the Majors and posted a strikeout rate of just 4.15 K/9 and FIP of 5.16. Maya followed up a disappointing showing in Majors with a strong winter league performance. In the Dominican, the right-hander gave up just 27 hits 41.0 innings and showed outstanding ground-ball rates. He also had solid control. Maya has a pretty classic three-quarter delivery. He could develop into a solid back-of-the-rotation starter for the Nats with a solid four-pitch mix and average fastball.
9. Brad Peacock, RHP
Acquired: 2006 41st round (Florida HS)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0
Notes: Peacock, who turns 23 soon, shows good heat with a fastball in the 92-96 mph range. He also has a nice breaking ball and a developing changeup. His heater is a little straight and he works up in the strike zone too often, which could hurt him in the Majors. He may be better suited to the bullpen, but he’s still young – and was a two-way player in high school – so he has projection left as a starting pitcher prospect. In 2010, Peacock spent the majority of the season in high-A where he missed a lot of bats (10.28 K/9) with good control (2.18 BB/9). His FIP sat at 3.14. If he doesn’t settle into the starting rotation, he could end up as a solid set-up man. Peacock has a lower three-quarter delivery and short-arms the ball. There is some effort in his delivery, which could speed up the transition to the bullpen.
10. J.P. Ramirez, OF
Acquired: 2008 15th round (Texas HS0
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Notes: Ramirez is a favorite of mine for his hitting ability, and there won’t be many people who rank him this high. The left-handed hitter batted .296/.341/.470 in 506 at-bats. His power improved from ’09 as his ISO rate jumped from .142 to .174. With some maturity as a hitter, his line-drive power should develop into 20+ homer power. Ramirez does need to show a little more patience at the plate as his walk rate has sat at 4.5 BB% each of the past two seasons but he doesn’t strike out that much (16.4 K%) for a potential power hitter. His ticket to the Majors is definitely tied to his bat. He’s not a speedy player by any means, which hampers him on the base paths and in the field. His arm is also average-at-best and he’ll be limited to left field.
Marc -
I really like what you’ve brought to the table here with your solid analyses (including the times you go against the grain).
Of course, as a Nat’s fan, I’m particularly interested here. I know how iffy prospects are, regardless of their apparent potential, but am pretty pleased with how the 2014 team, say, projects. Eury is hardly a sure thing, but from what I’ve seen could, with time, prove a solution to their atrocious CF situation, while of course Werth and Harper look to take an overall pathetic OF to impressive heights. Zimm, of course, anchors the IF, and as Cameron wrote is an underrated stud. Desi seems probable to be a decent major leaguer, if nothing more — and probably should switch with Espinosa for 2B … the latter of whom provides question marks offensively, but should probably combine enough D prowess even at SS to make him a respectable enough major leaguer as well. I think any team would be happy to have Ramos backing up Norris if the latter develops his potential towards the rosier end of his potential. That leaves just 1B (again, if EVERYTHING breaks right), and with a plethora picks in an impressive draft class this year, they might have a piece ready there.
As for pitching, the only time I think I can be called an over-reaching fan is with Jordan Zimmermann, but I think I am justified in believing there is more reason to think he’ll be a sound number two than not. Strasburg, of course, is odds-on to recover and return to number one, while if you are right Cole will ably fill three. And I don’t think either their back end or bullpen will be bereft of what anyone would consider acceptable.
Again, this is best-case, I know, and I am really hoping that luck is on Eury’s side, since that is a huge hole in their organization. But as a fan, I’m – I think justifiably – quasi-confident that better days are to come, with plenty of cash to supplement through FA and over-slot, to boot.
Just wondering: would Burgess have made this list? If so, where?
I didn’t have Burgess on the Top 10 before the trade. Frankly, I’m not a fan and think he’s a bit overrated. I would have had him in the 12-14 range.
What happened to Chris Marrero? He was #5 in March and he appeared to take a step forward this year, albeit a small one.
I just don’t think his bat is going to be good enough to be more than an average first baseman, with 15-20 homers for power output. I’d rank him No. 11.
Why Peacock over Cole Kimball? Stuff or the possibility that he remains a starter?
Quick hair-splitting note: Solis pitched 23 2/3 innings in the AFL this fall in addition to the 4 innings at Hagerstown.
He has been billed as a quick-to-the-majors pitcher – do you foresee him making the big club this summer?
I would note that for accuracy, Bryvce Harper was drafted out of the College of Southern Nevada, Junior College, not HS. At CSN, Harper played OF and C. So, he was not drafted as a HS catcher. It seems like you tacked on at the end that he played JuCo, but you emphasize the HS aspect for some reason.
Just my 2 cents, otherwise, as a Nats fan, an encouraging list. It seems that we are actually starting to have prospects on our top 10, as opposed to 10 bodies.
The Bryce Harper high school thing doesn’t bode well for this piece, but of course I will read it anyway.
What are your thoughts on Tyler Moore? He turns 24 soon, but he slugged .550 at high-A. If he can do something similar at AA this spring, does he leapfrong Marrero and start to look like a legitimate 1B prospect in 2012? Or is that wishful thinking?
The high school bit was just an input error, but thanks.
I am harsh on ranking relievers because they’re so volatile and tend to have limited value unless they are consistently in high leverage situations. That’s why Kimball fell off the list for me, although I do like him as a relief prospect.
Solis at the MLB level in 2011 is a little quick, I think.
I’m ‘meh’ on Moore. He’d be in the 15-20 range for me.
Harper in HS, Solis listed as a RHP and his AFL play not mentioned, this is just a sloppy piece. I expect much better from Fangraphs.
How about Robbie Ray (late-round, over-slot signing)? Need to see how he pitches in his first minor league assignment before putting him in the top-10? Or just not that high on his talent?
Marc, a quick thing on Norris: He has a high K rate, but he’s on the record for saying that he takes pitches that he knows are balls but frequently are called incorrectly at the lower levels (he has a fantastic eye). I wouldn’t expect that to be an issue in the majors.
Where does Corey Brown (obtained in the Willingham trade) sit? He was ranked fairly high on the A’s?
Good job Marc, Ramirez is also a favorite of mine. I enjoy watching him at
the plate, pure power hitter. Exciting to see his progress and batting discipline. I saw him in Hagerstown, and I did see him make some outstanding catches and throws in the outfield. He is definitely showing that he belongs in the Majors.
looks like danny esponisa will eclipse his peak WAR in his rookie year
Great scribble, well done…Having covered the 2010 Carolina League Champion Potomac Nationals I’d remind you there’s a guy named Steve Lombardozzi Jr. whose rapid advancement to the triple alphabet is a direct result of his mad skills as a second baseman and ability to swat the ball 3 times out of 10 at every level. He jumped from low A to AAA as fast as any prospect named here…I think he makes the show especially on a franchise like the Nats…not bad for a guy who lasted til the 19th round…his Dad has to be one of the nicest ex-MLB players I’ve encountered…
I actually found this more etenratiinng than James Joyce.
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