Top 15 Prospects: Kansas City Royals

Kansas City entered 2011 with the undisputed best minor league system in baseball. A year later the landscape has chanced somewhat thanks to promotions (Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Tim Collins, etc.) and injuries. The organization is not as deep as it once was but it still has some impressive talent and is easily in the Top 10, if not the Top 5, when discussing the best minor league systems.

1. Wil Myers, OF
BORN: Dec. 10, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 3rd round, North Carolina HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd

Drafted as a prep catcher, the organization made the difficult decision to move Myers to right field so his defensive development would not hold him back and would allow his potentially-plus bat to dictate his movement through the system. After a dominating performance in A-ball in 2010, Myers struggled at double-A and was merely “average” according to his wRC+ of .104. He continued to show patience (12.5 BB%) but his strikeout rate rose to almost 21 K% and his average slipped to .254. His power output also dipped considerably with his isolated power rate hitting .138. A knee infection knocked Myers out from mid-May until early June and could be somewhat to blame for his struggles; his best power displays came in April and August. Perhaps feeling that he had something to prove, Myers lit the Arizona Fall League on fire after being assigned there for the fall. He hit .360 with 14 extra base hits in 23 games (wRC+ of 178). With the strong showing in the AFL, Myers will likely move up to triple-A for 2012 and could reach Kansas City before the end of the year.

2. Mike Montgomery, LHP
BORN: July 1, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 supplemental 1st round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th

There was some hope that Montgomery would already be anchored in the Royals’ starting rotation but injuries and ineffectiveness have slowed his ascent. The good news is that the left-hander was able to provide 150 innings of work at triple-A in 2011. The bad news is that he floated a high ERA for much of the year and eventually got it down to 5.32 (4.30 FIP). His walk rate was a career high at 4.12 BB/9 and he allowed more than nine hits per nine innings, also the highest of his time in pro ball. Despite his issues Montgomery has the makings of a No. 2 starter and his repertoire includes a low-90s fastball that can touch 95 mph, a potentially-plus changeup and a developing curveball. Although there have been no direct correlations, Montgomery hasn’t been as sharp since he suffered a strained forearm in 2010 and missed almost two months. If he truly is back on solid ground in 2012 Montgomery should not need much more seasoning in the minors and could be up for good by midseason.

3. Bubba Starling, OF
BORN: Aug. 3, 1992
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (5th overall), Kansas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

Entering the 2011 high school season it appeared as though Starling’s future would include playing quarterback at the University of Nebraska and, possibly, the National Football League. However, his baseball skills showed a noticeable improvement, enough so that he quickly became a no-brainer Top 10 prospect for the draft and reportedly even received some consideration for the first overall pick. He ended up going fifth overall and signed with Kansas City for more than $7 million. Starling has the potential to hit for both average and power. His athleticism suggests that he could develop into an above-average defensive right fielder with a plus arm. Starling currently has above-average speed and will begin his career playing center field. The organization hasn’t shied away from starting high-ceiling prep hitters in low-a ball during their first full season so that’s where Starling will likely find himself in April.

4. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
BORN: March 27, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 supplemental 1st round, Illinois HS (by Brewers)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 6th

It’s never easy to trade a successful young pitcher but the Royals organization did a decent job of acquiring value back from the Milwaukee Brewers in the Zack Greinke deal of 2010. Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and Jeremy Jeffress have all made their presences known in Kansas City but the best may be yet to come. Odorizzi doesn’t have a huge ceiling but he has a chance to settle in as a solid No. 3 starter in the American League. The right-hander has a four-pitch mix that includes a low-90s fastball, curveball, slider and changeup. Odorizzi may be better off if he were to ditch the slider and focus on his other three pitches. He shows good control but he struggled during a mid-season promotion to double-A in 2011 because he needs to improve the command of his secondary pitches. He’ll likely return to double-A to begin 2012 but could taste the Majors at some point this season.

5. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B
BORN: Nov. 16, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 17th

Cuthbert made some headlines when he signed out of Big Corn Island in ’09 but then all but disappeared in 2010. He stormed back onto the prospect landscape with a solid showing in 2011. Just 19, Cuthbert received an assignment to low-A to begin last season – after opening his career in Rookie ball in ’10 – and he showed impressive skills. The third baseman showcased an advanced approach at the plate by using the entire field and displaying glimpses of raw power. He also exhibited patience by walking 10% of the time and did a nice job of making contact and keeping the strikeouts down. In the field he may ultimately lack the range to stay at third base but he has a strong arm and good actions. Cuthbert will move up to high-A to begin 2012 but, if all goes well, he could reach double-A at some point in the second half of the season.

6. John Lamb, LHP
BORN: July 10, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 5th round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 5th

Only injuries have been able to slow down Lamb. The southpaw rose quickly through the minor league system until an oblique strain followed by Tommy John surgery ruined his dreams of reaching the Majors in 2011 or ’12. Lamb will miss much of the season rehabbing his elbow but could see some time on the mound in competitive action in the mid-to-late summer. When he’s right, the lefty shows an 89-95 mph fastball, potentially-plus changeup and a developing breaking ball. He has good control for his age and flashed the ability to induce an above-average number of ground balls. Still just 21 time is on his side as he rehabs his injury.

7. Yordano Ventura, RHP
BORN: June 3, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 10th

Ventura, 20, isn’t your typical hard-throwing right-hander. He can touch triple digits with his heater but he stands just 5’10” and is a slight 150 lbs. His delivery has effort to it and he’s far from smooth with his mechanics so there is a fair bit of work to be done to ensure he holds up physically and can display the command necessary to succeed at higher levels. In 2011 Ventura posted a strikeout rate of 9.39 K/9 and a walk rate of 2.56 BB/9. His numbers improved as the season progressed and he showed definite improvement although he remains raw. He has also done a nice job of inducing more ground-ball outs. Despite modest numbers in low-A ball Ventura should move up to high-A ball in 2012 where he’ll look to break the 100-inning barrier for the first time in his career.

8. Christian Colon, SS/2B
BORN: May 14, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round, Cal State Fullerton
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 8th

Colon’s prospect standing has taken a big hit over the past year – something Kansas City fans don’t want to hear after the organization invested in him with its fourth overall pick in the 2010 draft. The club passed up the likes of Chris Sale, Drew Pomeranz, Matt Harvey, and Michael Choice to sign the college infielder. Despite modest numbers Colon has been pushed through the minors posting a wRC+ of just 80 at double-A during his first full season in pro ball. With gold glove candidate Alcides Escobar already manning shortstop in Kansas City, Colon has started to see time at the keystone position. As it was there were scouts that questioned the Royals prospect’s ability to remain at shortstop long term. Colon’s bat will have to wake up soon if he’s going to be taken seriously as a potential every day player at the MLB level.

9. Kelvin Herrera, RHP
BORN: Dec. 31, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2006 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

To some it will seem as though Herrera appeared out of thin air and landed on the Top 15 list. To others, who follow the system closely, this ranking will be an affirmation of the organization’s commitment to an injury-prone pitcher who has always been loaded with potential. Herrera, now 22, was originally signed in 2006 but pitched fewer than 110 innings between 2008 and 2010 while working out of the starting rotation – thanks to elbow issues. Moved to the bullpen for ’11, the right-hander flew through the minors after starting out in high-A ball. Herrera ended the year in the Majors, although it was a bumpy two appearances. The reliever has an explosive repertoire and could become the Royals’ closer in the not-too-distant future. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high 90s and can touch triple digits. He also has a good curveball and a solid changeup.

10. Bryan Brickhouse, RHP
BORN: June 6, 1992
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 3rd round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

Despite a lack of pro experience Brickhouse slides onto the back end of my list because he was one of my favorite post-first-round draft picks from 2011. He signed for $1.5 million in the third round and turned down the opportunity to pitch for the University of North Carolina. The Texas hurler throws in the low 90s and can touch 95 mph at times. His second best pitch is a curveball and he’s working to learn a changeup. If he can develop a third pitch then he has a chance to stick in the starting rotation and could develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter. He also has a chance to be a solid high-leverage reliever, which could lessen some of the concern over the effort in his delivery. Brickhouse will open 2012 in extended spring training before moving on to Rookie ball in June.

The Next Five

11. Chris Dwyer, LHP: The right-hander entered pro ball with a fair bit of fanfare but he’s struggled to reach his potential due to command and control problems – as well as some mechanical issues. His stuff has also taken a bit of a step backward too. In reality a move to the bullpen might be the best thing for Dwyer, who could then focus on developing his two best pitches: an 89-94 mph fastball and either his changeup or curveball.

12. Elier Hernandez, OF: The organization’s big ticket international signing of 2011, Hernandez is a raw baseball player but he has a strong, mature body and could develop plus power over time thanks to his plus bat speed. Currently he possesses good line-drive potential. Hernandez should develop into a solid right fielder with a good arm and average range.

13. Jorge Bonifacio, OF: Just 18, Bonifacio already has two years of pro experience under his belt and could open 2012 in low-A ball if the organization is feeling frisky. The outfielder has shown good pop throughout his career, including an isolated power rate of .208 in 2011. Bonifacio has a lot of work to do, though, if he’s going to hit or average because he struggles with pitch recognition and swings-and-misses too much.

14. Jason Adam, RHP: The only prep pitcher signed from Kansas City’s 2010 draft crop, Adam has a chance to develop into a solid No. 3 innings-eater thanks to his solid repertoire and strong frame. Signed away from a commitment to the University of Missouri, Adam can touch the mid-90s and has shown a good curveball. He has also made strides with his changeup. He was challenged with an assignment to low-A ball in his first pro season and did OK although improved command should help him improve upon his 6.56 strikeout rate.

15. Brett Eibner, OF: A two-way player in college, some teams preferred Eibner on the mound but he wanted to play everyday and Kansas City was willing to accommodate him. As a result of his time on the mound he’s more raw than the average college-groomed (highly-drafted) hitter and injuries in 2011 also slowed his development. On the plus side, Eibner displays plus raw power at the plate and strong athleticism and a strong arm in the outfield.

SLEEPER ALERT: Humberto Arteaga, SS: Signed for just over $1 million in 2010 Arteaga is a strong defender with good range, hands and actions. He also has a solid arm. He doesn’t project to hit for power and he isn’t a stolen base threat so his offensive value will be tied up in his ability to hit for a decent average. He recently turned 18 and may spend another season in extended spring training before and assignment to short-season ball.



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Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects, depth charts and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.


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Tim
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Tim
4 years 5 months ago

First!

Ok, onto pressing matters. This farm system is stacked. Give it 2-3 years, and the Royals will be not only contending for the AL Central title, but perhaps even making a run at the pennant. Speaking as a Royals fan, I can’t tell you how happy that makes me.

Dick
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Dick
4 years 5 months ago

I disagree.

CircleChange11
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CircleChange11
4 years 5 months ago

Even if every one of these prospects “pans out”, they still might not be good enough for a division title.

Also, the whole 2011 OF is due for heavy regression (negative) in 2012.

I like the Royals, love the prospects, but they are going to experience busts and booms like everyone else.

Even if all of the prospects reaches their “ceiling” as Royals, they still may not be good enough.

It is possible that they contend if DET suffers a ton of injuries and things of that nature. I feel the need to point out that they do have a low non-zero chance of winning the division in 2012 and 2013.

By the same token, anyone in the division could theoretically compete for the title in the future. I try and look at “what would it take for them to win the division?” and “What are the odds of that happening?”

The Royals, however, a very interesting and fun team to use on The Show of OOTP.

Paul
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Paul
4 years 5 months ago

This time last year, the Red Sox were the favorite to win the AL East and the Twins still looked like strong contenders. Things can change pretty quickly.

Last year most of the top prospects in the system, and a bunch of the middle tier guys also, didn’t have great years. And as Marc notes, their really top guys graduated to the majors. For the system to still be in the Top 5 or 10 after a rough year speaks pretty well for the future. The picture here could change pretty dramatically with a sudden (albeit improbable) breakout by Colon here, or a step forward by a healthy Eibner there.

CircleChange11
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CircleChange11
4 years 5 months ago

1. It took a “horrible” season for BOS to miss the playoffs … on the last day of the season.

2. MIN wasn’t a strong contender, IMO. I had MIN as being about equal to CWS. Turns out both sucked.

Here’s my thinking, KCR won 71 games last year and every one of their OF’s had a great year (relative): Gordon 6.9, Melky 4.2, Frenchy 2.9. every one is due for some negative regression and Melky is now with SFG. So, maybe -3 WAR to the OF.

They have 4-5 batters that appear to league average, so 8 WAR there, maybe +3 or +4 over last year.

Sanchez and Chen project to be close to league average, but no one else.

In other words, when we ask “What will it take for the Royals to contend?” and “How likely is that to happen?”, were left with very small odds. Simply put, they need more things to go “right” than are reasonable to expect.

I really like the Royals and their prospects, but it’s realistic to expect ~half of them to not produce as expected. They still have a top minor league system, but that’s drastically different than having a contender MLB roster.

It is possible that they bring in quality FA in the future to fill in the gaps, but that’s also possible of DET, CLE, CWS, and MIN.

CircleChange11
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CircleChange11
4 years 5 months ago

4 relievers project as better than league average.

Paul
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Paul
4 years 5 months ago

Here’s an example of how teams “surprise” from a projection standpoint.

Eric Hosmer was 1.6 fWAR last year based in part on an absurd UZR range factor that will be corrected this year. That along with a reasonable projection for his 2nd season, and VIOLA, OF regression offset. SURPRISE!

How about the increase from a full year of Giavotella at 2B (Chris Getz was a lot worse than the numbers look) and Moustakas at 3B vs. what was there last year (including a completely feckless performance by Moose for the first 6 weeks he was up). Then there’s catcher. A full season from a heavily regressed Perez is still quite an upgrade from Treanor/Pena.

The starting pitching needs to take a major step forward, but if you want to regress the OF, you also need to account for the projected increases from everybody else to see that the offense will hold sway. Some of us do not agree that the OF is going to regress that much.

The starting pitching is why I don’t see them as remotely a contender this year, but there’s no reason why their combination of prospects and guys they currently have in the system can’t get them there without going heavily into free agency.

CircleChange11
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CircleChange11
4 years 5 months ago

So basically, everyone needs to [1] play to their potential (i.e., outperform their projections) and [2] be healthy.

I looked at Zips projections for 2012. I didn’t use my gut feeling.

They also have to jump 3 teams in the standings, another big obstacle.

Having the Royals have a 26U All-Star team win the division would be great for baseball, great for the royals, and tremendous for the fans. But, realistically, it’s not going to happen. They would have to be incredibly lucky to have so many prospects come close to their potential and remain healthy. IMO, we’re already seeing some of them fall of the track.

Eric Hosmer was 1.6 fWAR last year based in part on an absurd UZR range factor that will be corrected this year. That along with a reasonable projection for his 2nd season, and VIOLA, OF regression offset. SURPRISE!

I thought Hosmer’s skill was hands/scoops, not range (so his UZR isn;t improving). I’m not expecting improvement + UZR correction to result in a 5 WAR Hosmer sophomore season. To me that’s a Cub fan projection, not a reasonable projection.

I said in a previous post …

“Here’s my thinking, KCR won 71 games last year and every one of their OF’s had a great year (relative): Gordon 6.9, Melky 4.2, Frenchy 2.9. every one is due for some negative regression and Melky is now with SFG. So, maybe -3 WAR to the OF.

They have 4-5 batters that appear to league average, so 8 WAR there, maybe +3 or +4 over last year. ”

I included an overall +3 or +4 WAR for the entire offense over last year. That moves them to within maybe 20 games of DET. It also assumes that KCR replaces Melky’s 4 WAR with a 2.5-3 WAR CF and that’s generous.

Franklin Stubbs
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Franklin Stubbs
4 years 5 months ago

I don’t give a shit about any of these guys, I wanna learn me more about Salvatore Perez. I have a sneaking suspicion he could be a good one, but most if not all articles are focused elsewhere.

Anybody have any good info on Perez?

Brian
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Brian
4 years 5 months ago

I agree that the Royals have a pretty strong stable of young talent, but we will need to supplement that with a few strong free agent signings in the next 3 years to make any serious pennant run.

The Royals are proving that under Dayton they can draft and bring up talent, but what the organization has yet to prove is whether they can supplement that talent with a Matt Latos or Ubaldo Jimenez type starter and one more serious offensive player.

But, I agree, as a royals fan, it is nice to see all of this unfold.

Tim
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Tim
4 years 5 months ago

True, I think they’ll need to bring in a free agent pitcher if/when they get to the point of competing for a division title.

The player to keep an eye on this year will be Chris Dwyer. After putting up great numbers in 2010, he took a step back in 2011. However, he ended 2011 with several good outings. I’m not ready to move him to the bullpen; I believe he still has #2-#3 starter stuff at the ML level.

By the end of 2012, the Royals should have a number of young pitchers up with the big club. This class of pitchers isn’t the same level of talent as last year’s group of position players, but it still gives me plenty of reason to be optimistic!

cpebbles
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cpebbles
4 years 5 months ago

Really not too impressed by the top of the list this year. Wil Myers the corner OF is going to need more than a handful of AFL games to win me over.

Brian
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Brian
4 years 5 months ago

I disagree…Myers has shown unreal plate discipline for someone his age. Aside from a 2011 season in AA where he was hurt most of the beginning of the year, he put up some really good numbers in 2 years of A ball and he really started to come on towards the end of the 2011 season, which he parlayed into a successful AFL run.

If he can adjust to the breaking ball a little better, and get that k% down a few points…he could be an elite hitter.

Uncle Randy
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Uncle Randy
4 years 5 months ago

Wtf is Big Corn Island?

rbt
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rbt
4 years 5 months ago

An island of Nicaragua.

Dexter Bobo
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Dexter Bobo
4 years 5 months ago

you can read all about it here: http://lmgtfy.com/

ToddM
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ToddM
4 years 5 months ago

Imma guess Montgomery didn’t give up “nine hits per inning”, Marc. Quick edit.

dk
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dk
4 years 5 months ago

Could be that’s why his ERA was so high.

Sun King
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Sun King
4 years 5 months ago

is it just me, or does it seem that most of the royals highly touted prospects have underperformed, they seem to have a lower sucess rate than rays prospects or braves prospects.

rbt
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rbt
4 years 5 months ago

The Rays and Braves have had an amazing, otherworldly run of luck with their pitching prospects. Almost unheard of. Neither org has been real great at turning out hitting prospects. Royals look like they’ll be better at the hitting side of things and have problems with the pitching. All in all, though, too soon to judge with the Royals.

When looking at KC’s success rate I would only judge those players drafted by the current regime, so 2007 draftees and later. It’s way too early to say that the Royals have a lower success rate.

Ginger Croissant
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Ginger Croissant
4 years 5 months ago

This article totally makes me want to read “A New Old Idea For the Kansas City Royals” for the ten thousandth time.

Wally
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Wally
4 years 5 months ago

Dwyer is a lefty (?) Also, thank you for not putting Starling ahead of Myers.

rbt
Guest
rbt
4 years 5 months ago

Second prospect list to show Dwyer as a righty this offseason (Kevin Goldstein did too). Has Dwyer changed something that we don’t know about?

skippyballer486
Member
skippyballer486
4 years 5 months ago

This may be beyond the scope of prospect lists, but has there ever been any consideration for doing a “top prospects and current non-arbitration eligible major leaguers” combo list? It seems unfair to punish the Royals for graduating a pair of top-25 (top-10?) prospects in Moustakas and Hosmer.

Joe
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Joe
4 years 5 months ago

What do you mean “punish”?

The purpose of evaluating/ranking the minor league systems it to….

….evaluate/rank the minor league systems.

This isn’t supposed to be an org ranking or a young talent ranking it’s simply a look at each team’s farm system. No one is “punishing” the Royals, they are just evaluating the talent in their minor league system.

Can you explain what you mean by “punish”? And how this is “unfair”?

rob
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rob
4 years 5 months ago

That’s the most conservative defensive projection I’ve seen for Starling. I’m pretty sure that I’ve read that his speed would project him as an above-average CF and not RF.

Alex
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Alex
4 years 5 months ago

Yup, Starling is, by all assessments, an above average CF prospect. If you think he’s moving to RF, you should say why the Royals would move him or you lose credibility (as in I think you don’t know what you are talking about). Myers and Gordon will almost certainly (If Gordon signs an extension) be manning the corner OF positions when Starling is set for call-up in 3-4 years anyways.

Alex
Guest
Alex
4 years 5 months ago

Scratch that…didn’t see your above reply.

What are the chances that the royals find a “speedster centerfielder with as-good-as, or better, range” and a bat? Starling has incredible speed. He runs a 4.36 electronically timed 40 yard dash. If he can hit at the MLB level, it seems nonsensical to stash him in RF.

john
Guest
john
4 years 2 months ago

might not wanna give up on christian colon so quick (like every other website!) batting .316 now! drafted in 2010 – how EVERYONE could give up on him so quick? is beyond me!thats why all these websites blow! 10 different NEW guys each yr! i know he is 23, but might wanna be a little more patient – had nick castellanos the 45 best prospect? (im tiger season tix holder for 20 yrs – loved the kid before drafted) thought that was a terrible spot before season and now a month into season and batting over .400 all yr! i KNOW it was a horrible forecast! just like colon

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