Top 30 Prospects: The Kansas City Royals

* This wraps up the Top 10 lists for all 30 organizations in baseball. FanGraphs is the only place you can get 300+ scouting reports free of charge, so I hope you enjoyed them.

Up next is the compilation list of the Top 100 prospects in baseball, which you should see next Monday. I’ll also be hosting a chat the same day, March 28, at 12:00 Eastern. It’s your chance to ask any prospect-related question that you’ve been dying to discuss.

The Kansas City Royals
2010 MLB Record: 67-95 (fifth place, AL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 1st (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Mike Moustakas, 3B
Acquired: 2007 1st round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 6.0

Notes: The top prospect for the top minor league system in baseball, Moustakas holds immense potential. The third baseman had a modest start to his pro career, thanks to a temporary hiccup in high-A ball (although he was there at a young age). He then exploded in 2011, reaching the potential that was expected of him since becoming the second overall pick during the ’07 amateur draft. Moustakas killed the ball in double-A with a triple-slash line of .347/.413/.687 in 259 at-bats. His power was off the charts (.340 ISO), and he also showed good control of the strike zone while posting a strikeout rate of 16.2 K% – which is good for a young power hitter. He even had the highest walk rate of his young career at 8.7 BB%. Upon a promotion to triple-A, his patience evaporated (3.4 BB%) but he still managed to hit .293/.314/.564 in 225 at-bats. The big knock on Moustakas is in the field. Despite a strong arm, he struggles with his range and foot work. He has the bat to move to first base, but Eric Hosmer will definitely have something to say about that. Moustakas’ 36 home runs and 124 RBI over the course of the full season is eye popping and he shouldn’t need much more than half a season in triple-A before taking over the hot corner in Kansas City.

2. Eric Hosmer, 1B
Acquired: 2008 1st round (Florida HS)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 6.0

Notes: An easy case could be made to list Hosmer No. 1 on this list but the edge goes to the slightly-more-advanced Moustakas. After repairing his eye sight after the 2009, in which he struggled, Hosmer – like a number of KC prospects – saw his value skyrocket with an outstanding offensive season. In 325 high-A at-bats, Hosmer took advantage of a .382 BABIP and hit .354 with a strikeout rate of just 12.0 K%. His power output was the one area that wasn’t outstanding, sitting at a still-more-than-respectable .191 ISO. Moved up to double-A, he hit .313/.365/.615 in 195 at-bats; his ISO rate jumped to .303. Hosmer saw his walk rate drop form 11.7 in high-A to 7.1 BB% in double-A. At the plate, he shows a quick bat and gets good rotation with his hips, but doesn’t use his legs that much. In the field, the prospect has the potential to develop into a good fielding first baseman and could even see time in the outfield, depending on the club’s needs (and possibly Mike Moustakas‘ development at the hot corner). Further, Hosmer’s strong arm would be wasted at first base. I would expect him to head back to the same level in 2011 with a quick promotion (May or June) to triple-A. He should take over the full-time first base job in KC in 2012.

3. Wil Myers, OF
Acquired: 2009 3rd round (North Carolina HS)
Pro Experience: 2 season
2010 MiLB Level: A-/A+
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

Notes: Max Stassi (Oakland), Luke Bailey (Tampa Bay), Tommy Joseph (San Francisco), J.R. Murphy (New York AL) and Myers were among a strong crop of prep catchers in 2009, but the KC prospect has left the rest of the pack in his dust. Myers, though, has also seen a position change, which causes him to slide a bit down my rankings (along with some questions about his makeup). Defensively, it remains to be seen what type of fielder he’ll develop into but he does possess a strong arm. You cannot argue with his offensive potential, and he has more than enough skill to be a difference-maker in right field. In his first full pro season – and as a teenager – Myers reached high-A ball and looks poised to open 2011 in double-A. He began the 2010 season in low-A and hit .289/.408/.500, showing uncanny patience for a young hitter with a walk rate of 16.3 BB%. He does struggle to make contact with breaking balls at times while posting a strikeout rate of 22.7 K%. Moved up to high-A, Myers hit .346/.453/.512 in 205 at-bats, thanks in part to a BABIP of .411. He maintained his walk rate (15.0 BB%) and even cut down on his strikeouts (19.0 K%). He shows an incredibly quick bat at the plate and covers the plate well.

4. Mike Montgomery, LHP
Acquired: 2008 supplemental 1st round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: R/A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Montgomery is the top pitcher in the system, narrowly edging out John Lamb due to a longer period of sustained success. The lefty did struggle through injury issues in 2010, where the strained forearm  he suffered from can often be a precursor to Tommy John surgery. In Montgomery’s case, though, he had a healthy second half of the season and pitched OK in the Arizona Fall League. At double-A, he posted a 3.97 FIP in 59.2 innings of work. His control slipped a bit (3.92 BB/9) from its usual outstanding levels. Montgomery shows average to slightly-above-average ground ball tendencies. When healthy, the pitching prospect shows a 91-95 mph fastball, developing curveball and solid changeup. There is a little bit of effort to his delivery, but he repeats his mechanics well. Because of the lost time due to injury, Montgomery could return briefly to double-A but should move up to triple-A before too long. He has the ceiling of a No. 1 or 2 starter.

5. John Lamb, LHP
Acquired: 2008 5th round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-/A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5

Notes: Lamb, 20, is preferred over Montgomery by some prospect watchers and, like with Moustakas and Hosmer, I cannot really argue with that way of thinking. Lamb, however, has less experience than his pitching mate and his stuff isn’t quite as good – nor are his ground ball rates. Despite those facts, he zoomed through the system in 2010 while playing at three levels (A-, A+ and AA). He spent the most time in high-A where he posted a 1.69 FIP in 74.2 innings of work. His walk rate sat at an impressive 1.81 BB/9 and he also missed a lot of bats (10.85 K/9). Lamb’s double-A numbers were not as bad as his 5.45 ERA might suggest. He did struggle with his control a bit more then at high-A (3.55 BB/9), and his strikeout rate dropped to 7.09 K/9; he was hurt when a high number of base runners came around to score (57.8 LOB%). Lamb’s repertoire includes a fastball that ranges anywhere from 88-94 mph while also featuring a changeup and curveball. He has a low three-quarter arm slot with a fairly easy delivery. His ceiling appears to be that of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

6. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
Acquired: 2008 supplemental 1st round (Illinois HS)
Pro Experience:3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: The key to the Zack Greinke trade, Odorizzi went from being the No. 2 prospect in the Brewers system (behind the also-traded Brett Lawrie) to the No. 6 prospect in the Royals system, which underscores the depth that Kansas City has. The right-hander was one of my favorite prep pitchers available during the ’08 draft, so he’s a solid addition to the pitching depth. The Brewers organization was cautious with his development but Odorizzi could see his timetable accelerated now that he’s in a more aggressive organization. In low-A ball in 2010, the prospect posted a strikeout rate of 10.07 K/9 while also showing good control with a walk rate of 2.98 BB/9. His FIP sat at 2.93 in 120.2 innings. He has produced average ground ball rates in his career, but that matters less in KC because of the spacious ball park. Odorizzi’s four-pitch repertoire features an 88-93 mph fastball, a curveball, slider, and changeup. His ceiling is that of a No. 2 to 3 starter, and he could reach double-A in 2011.

7. Danny Duffy, LHP
Acquired: 2007 3rd round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: R/A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0

Notes: As a member of the Royals, Zack Greinke had a well-publicized internal battle within himself over his desire to play professional baseball, which was similar to what Duffy faced in 2010, temporarily walking away from the game in spring training. The lefty eventually found his way back and played at four levels in 2010, reaching double-A. At the highest level, he posted a 2.80 FIP in 39.2 innings while showing good control (2.04 BB/9). Duffy also posted a solid strikeout rate (9.30 K/9). He has a four-pitch repertoire that includes a 90-95 mph fastball, a changeup, curveball and slider. The lefty has a clean delivery and little effort. At worst, he should develop into a No. 3 starter, and should return to double-A to begin the 2011 season.

8. Christian Colon, SS
Acquired: 2010 1st round (Cal State Fullerton)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: A+
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.5

Notes: The Royals nabbed Colon with the fourth overall pick in the 2010 draft and quickly signed him. It’s nice to see a player’s strong desire to start his pro career and Colon hit .278/.326/.380 in 245 at-bats at high-A ball. His ceiling isn’t the highest despite his draft slot, but he should develop into a solid player, just probably not a difference-maker. He doesn’t possess much power (10-12 homers) or game-changing speed (10-15 steals) and projects to be a No. 2 hitter who can do the little things well. He handled the bat well in his debut and struck out at a rate of just 13.5 K%. He didn’t walk much (4.8 BB%), though. Colon could stand to improve his weight transfer and timing a bit, which could help him add some pop to his swing. He also has pretty active hands. Defensively, there are questions about his ability to remain at shortstop, which hurts his overall value. If his range doesn’t cut it at his current position he’ll have to flip over to second base.

9. Chris Dwyer, LHP
Acquired: 2009 4th round (Clemson U)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.5

Notes: A big, strong pitcher, Dwyer projects to be a durable No. 3 starter. A fly ball pitcher, it would be nice to see him develop a pitch that can induce a few more grounders. He spent the 2010 season in high-A ball, but also made four starts in double-A and should return there in ’11. At the lower level, Dwyer posted a 2.70 FIP in 84.1 innings. He missed a lot of bats with a strikeout rate of 9.92 K/9 and showed average control with a walk rate of 3.52 BB/9. His control, though, has been inconsistent in his career. Dwyer suffered a back injury later in the season but is expected to be fully healthy in 2011. He has an 89-93 mph fastball and a plus curveball. His changeup is developing. Dwyer has a high arm slot and doesn’t have much effort to his delivery.

10. Yordano Ventura, RHP
Acquired: 2009 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: Rookie
Opening Day Age: 19
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0

Notes: Just 19, Ventura dominated the rookie level in 2010 thanks to above-average control (2.91 BB/9) and an explosive repertoire that includes a 92-98 mph fastball. His secondary pitches (curveball and change) are works-in-progress. Ventura doesn’t have the best pitcher’s frame and stands just 5’11” with a slight build (160 lbs). He did a nice job of keeping balls-in-play on the ground (54 GB%) in 2010. His FIP sat at 2.88 in 52.2 innings, while his strikeout rate was 9.91 K/9. If the organization chooses to be aggressive (which isn’t really necessary with the pitching depth ahead of him), Ventura could open 2011 in low-A but he’ll likely begin the year in extended spring training before heading to an advanced rookie level club.

Top 3 Organization Bonus

11. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP
12. Brett Eibner, OF
13. Tim Collins, LHP
14. Aaron Crow, RHP
15. Tim Melville, RHP
16. Jason Adam, RHP
17. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B
18. Salvador Perez, C
19. Robinson Yambati, RHP
20. Louis Coleman, RHP
21. Johnny Giavotella, 2B
22. Patrick Keating, RHP
23. Derrick Robinson, OF
24. David Lough, OF
25. Noah Arguelles, LHP
26. Jarrod Dyson, OF
27. Humberto Arteaga, SS
28. Crawford Simmons, LHP
29. Lucas May, C
30. Jeff Bianchi, SS




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Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospect analysis. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

52 Responses to “Top 30 Prospects: The Kansas City Royals”

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  1. James says:

    Last year you guys ranked royals NO.30 right? NO.30 -> NO.1 farm system in a year? what’s wrong fangraphs’ prospects evaluating system?

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    • Infrancoeurigible says:

      Hosmer finally started hitting like his scouting reports and BP aerial shows dictated he should, ditto for Moustakas. All the pitchers took a step forward, and they acquired Colon and Odorizzi through one means or another.

      That’s how you go from God-awful to great in a year. Tons of high-risk, high-reward guys will do that to an organization.

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      • eckmuhl says:

        If Fangraph’s staff indeed had KC’s farm system ranked dead last at the start of last season, I don’t see how you could argue against the fact that it was a very poor choice. Yes Hosmer & Moustakas had huge years, yes Myers had a brilliant offensive first professional season, yes many of the young arms progressed nicely, and yes they added a couple of pieces since then. But a lot of the guys who stepped forward last year were already very physically touted, and some of them were already considered Top 100 prospects before last season began.
        However, I’m not sure that they actually did rank the farm system dead last. I believe they ranked the organization as a whole last, but not necessarily their minor league system. Can anybody verify this one way or another?

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      • mcneo says:

        My gut feeling is that they were middle of the pack. Which isn’t surprising, Hosmer and Moustakas appeared to be potential busts at the end of last year with only decent years for being such high picks. Hosmer had eye surgery before this season, and apparently the Royals single A affiliate’s ballpark is hard on hitters. Famed Royals blogger, Rany (www.ranyontheroyals.com) often mentions how poorly hitters have done there over the years. (ie Carlos Beltran). This is also probably the reason why Hosmer showed a massive improvement in power after moving to AA.

        http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kansas-city-royals-top-10-prospects/

        The article doesn’t give a number or rating, though.

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    • glp says:

      I don’t know exactly what their prospect ranking was, but it definitely wasn’t 30.

      Royals have already said that Hosmer is starting the season in AAA.

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  2. Macek says:

    I’ve been wondering for the last couple of days now whether prospects tend to be thought of more highly if they come from systems that are considered “good” as opposed to systems that are considered bad. For example, if one of the Royals’ better prospects happened to be in the Astros’ system would he still be thought of so highly. Basically, do prospects get given the benefit of the doubt if they have other good prospects surrounding them?

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    • Preston says:

      I think people do that. But I don’t think the Royals system is getting the benefit of the doubt because nobody thinks highly of the Royals. But for example I think that Rays pitching prospects are rated highly because of the recent success they’ve had developing pitchers.

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    • S.M. Jenkins says:

      I don’t know. I mean Chris Dwyer or Danny Duffy would obviously be a lot higher in a system like Houston’s or Milwaukee’s than they are here.

      I do agree somewhat with the other commenter about organizations such as Tampa Bay building up ‘equity’ of sorts amongst prospecters due to their sterling track record but I think prospects are, for th emost part, looked at it an individual sense.

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  3. Paul says:

    Have never seen a mention of makeup problems with Myers, in fact quite the opposite. Disappointing that it’s mentioned in this write-up without some elaboration. Is there at least a link to a published report somewhere?

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  4. Wilsonian Democracy says:

    This is the first time I’ve ever read anyone introduce “some questions about (Myers’) makeup.” By all previous accounts I’ve come across the kid’s a sponge and a hard worker. Can you elaborate on this Marc?

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  5. Wilsonian Democracy says:

    Whoa, jinx Paul…haha

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  6. SpringtownRoyal says:

    I also question the Myers makeup remark.

    Hosmer and Montgomery will both start at AAA.

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    • glp says:

      The only thing I have every heard about Myers is that some of his high school coaches maybe thought he liked to have too much fun on the field. That’s a quote from Myers himself. I would hardly call that a makeup issue, though. I would also like Marc to elaborate or cite a source.

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  7. tdotsports1 says:

    Now that is a system.

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  8. Beaster says:

    Tim Collins at #13 is a stretch. I watched him pitch a few times when he was in the Jays system and although he has swing and miss stuff he will never be anything other than a good to great reliever. That puts his peak WAR somewhere around what ? 1.0 ?
    IF he can somehow continue that Marmolesque K/9 into AAA and then at the major league level maybe 2.5 if he’s also a closer ?

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    • patrick says:

      there were 48 relievers in baseball last year with 1 WAR or higher. if collins can do that, a #13 ranking is completely justified and you could possibly argue higher than that due to his proximity to the majors and likelihood of reaching his ceiling, however limited it is due to being a reliever

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    • Paul says:

      I believe Collins was something like the #7 prospect by Baseball America for the Jays in ’10. And BA also had him right in the same range as Hulett this year. As much as I tend to agree that relievers should not rank real high, being ranked that high is not controversial in context of other rankings. Then again, look at the guys below him. It would be hard to argue placing Adam ahead of him based on fall instructs alone.

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  9. Telo says:

    “Estimated peak WAR” is… worse than useless.

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    • Paul says:

      Agreed. It is almost completely frivolous, which is uncharacteristic of this site.

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    • Jack Weiland says:

      I’m always amused by the fact that people feel the need to comment on Estimated Peak WAR so much. If you find it useless, disregard it. It’s a line of text. Nothing more, nothing less. Get over it.

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      • Paul says:

        I’m always amused by people who are amused by people who comment on something that is useless instead of ignoring it, then comment to those people that they should ignore it instead of commenting. Please ignore this comment Jack, and we’ll just pretend none of this ever happened.

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  10. hunter says:

    Not that it really matters but the wrong Murphy is linked to in the article for AL New York

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  11. Dale says:

    Did I miss the Angels prospect report? I see one for the other 29 teams. Or are their prospects so bad nothing can be written?

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  12. Jim says:

    I’m curious as to why Will Smith isn’t ranked in the top 30, I’ve seen him ranked as high as 7 on some lists but you guys don’t even have him top 30… Can you explain what you don’t see in him that others do?

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    • ecpgeo says:

      Soft tossing lefty, finesse pitcher, huge questions as to how stuff will play out at the upper levels. A 7 ranking in this organization would be way too high, but would work is some other orgs. Baseball America doesn’t have him in the Royals top 30 either.

      Like you, I have also seen him ranked too high – somebody had him as the second ranked pitcher in the org behind only Lamb. I almost burst out laughing. Then I scratched the site off my list of sites to visit.

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    • S.M. Jenkins says:

      I can’t imagine Will Smith ranking in the Top 10 or anything but I don’t think a ranking somewhere between 15-20 would be at all out of place.

      I feel like Smith has a very good chance to be a big league contributor & it’s easy to see Joe Saunders when looking at his minor league videos. The Angels jumped him up a level too quickly prior to the Alberto Callaspo deal (A to AAA initially) & Smith was a different pitcher with the Royals when he went back to a more appropriate rung. He’s only 21 & I’d expect him to start in AA to begin 2011.

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  13. Fenton_X says:

    Marc in reguards to the estimated peak war, what variables are you researching and and taking into account to predict or make an educated quess on this stat?(Age, average war by position and age vs the actuall replacement level average, skill set, how far the prospect is away fom the show?) Just curious to see what the formula is.

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  14. Jeff says:

    Very curious as to why Salvador Perez would be ranked so low. His defensive skills and game management are very advanced for his age and it looks like he will be able to hit enough to not be an embarrassment in the lineup.

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    • Brett says:

      I think its because of how freaking deep our system is. There are a lot of high upside arms in front of him as well as two good relievers who are major league ready. But, I love Perez and see him as the catcher of the future. Maybe a Yadlier Molina type that can play plus, plus defense and be effective in the 8 hole.

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      • S.M. Jenkins says:

        I like Salvador Perez too &, yes, he’d rank much higher in other organizations. It’s hard to make a case for him over many of the names listed above him here due to the loaded KC farm (I’m not an Aaron Crow fan & would list Perez higher, but that’s probably it depending on how you value Tim Collins & maybe Brett Eibner).

        I like the Yadier Molina comparison as well although I believe Perez has at least a tick more natural power.

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  15. hawkinscm says:

    Isn’t peak WAR for a projected #1 starter more like 8? I mean, what is peak WAR anyway? Surely, a pitcher with that talent could be expected to have a 2.50ish ERA season at some point.

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  16. CubsFan says:

    It’s nice to see Montgomery ranked ahead of Lamb for a change. As much as I like advanced metrics, I also still believe that there is a lot to be gained from the infamous “eyeball test”. It seems like I always hear/read about Lamb over Montgomery but Montgomery appears to be the superior pitcher with the higher ceiling when seen in person.

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    • rbt says:

      Agree, agree, agree…I like Lamb a lot on the face of things, and maybe he’s better in the long run, but Montgomery is simply spectacular to watch. He has the “wow” factor.

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  17. Marc Hulet says:

    OK, let’s see if I can address all the questions… last year I didn’t rank the minor league organizations when doing the Top 10s. This was something new this year, which added a little bit of interest but did get muddied a bit when some major trades occurred (Milwaukee, Boston, etc).

    The Myers comments come after things I’ve heard from a few different front office types/scouts. It’s not that people think he’s a bad seed or a trouble maker but, from what I understand from what I’ve heard, Myers is used to being the best player and knows it; his confidence falls on the arrogance side. With that said, this is all second hand info and he has plenty of time to grow or prove he’s been misunderstood. I like Myers a lot… I just like Moustakas and Hosmer better.

    I don’t know that Perez is ranked low. BA had him at 17 and BP had him at 20. Good glove, questions about his bat… back-up but can he hit enough to start?

    The peak WAR is something we talked about doing this year to try and give the list a different flavor… It’ll probably be revamped next year because it’s so subjective. Was it a resounding success, no, but we do like to experiment. Like I said at the top of the article… you won’t find 300 free scouting reports anywhere but here.

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    • Paul says:

      Marc: Thanks for the explanations, especially about Myers. I was hoping it was scouts thinking he was a little arrogant and not something more concrete or worrisome. That tag is not uncommon, but it’s awfully subjective and if it’s coming from guys who are not around him all the time, I don’t think it’s fair.

      Nothing wrong with the information, but I’ll probably give more weight to Yost saying in an interview the other day that those guys are so squared away that he’s never been called “sir” so much in his life. Nobody ever said that about Gordon and Butler. I don’t remember the arrogant tag put on them when they were in the minors, yet it’s turned out that while both are good guys, I’d say it’s well accepted by now that they’re both pretty arrogant.

      This series was great again, and at least one of the guys who filled in on some of the reports did such a good job that I thought they were you.

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  18. Jack Weiland says:

    Giavotella … kinda surprised to see him so low here (and at BA). Is it strictly a defense thing? To me his bat looks above average and if his defense is passable he should be ranked much higher, especially given how close he is.

    Thoughts, anyone?

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    • S.M. Jenkins says:

      Good points & I think he’s probably ranked a little low here. I could see a case for him anywhere between 10-11 & 20 or so because of the range of different quality prospects though.

      The easy comparison with Johnny Giovatella is Dustin Pedroia due to physical similarities & the hit tool, but Giovatella isn’t as quick footed in the field. He sort of reminds me of current Royal Mike Aviles & there is certainly value in that. Giovatella would rank between 17th-20th for me (between Ventura & Lough/Crow/WSmith; that crowd) but that’s more due to the system. He’s a quality stick & he’s likely not far off.

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  19. JB says:

    Free Clint Robinson

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  20. dave says:

    What happened to Sam Runion??

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  21. Colin says:

    It’s Noel Arguelles, not Noah Arguelles.

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  22. if this post was likened to a flavor of yogurt, what flavor would it be? Banana, I believe.

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