Toronto Blue Jays Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Toronto Blue Jays organization boasts some impressive depth that stretches well beyond the 15 best prospects listed below. There were at least another 10-12 prospects legitimately in the running for the 10-15 spots on this list.

 

#1 Travis D’Arnaud (C)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
23 303 93 21 16 19 59 1 .333 .380 .595 .415

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA
Acquired: Trade (2009)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

The young catcher entered 2012 as the Jays’ top prospect and he did nothing to change the lofty status, although a knee injury ended his season prematurely in June. Had he not been injured d’Arnaud likely would have made his big league debut when MLB incumbent J.P. Arencibia suffered a fracture in his hand. d’Arnaud has the potential to be both an above-average hitter and fielder. One talent evaluator said the prospect was likely ready for the big leagues but stressed his value was behind plate and that it wasn’t overly likely that he would see time at other positions in an effort to get his bat into the lineup.

Despite Arencibia’s offensive challenges the organization remains committed to him as the starter behind the plate because of the trust he’s built up with the pitching staff. The organization also recently re-signed backup Jeff Mathis to a two-year contract extension (plus an option) suggesting that d’Arnaud could become trade bait as the organization is openly working to improve the big league club – especially the pitching staff. When I saw d’Arnaud play I was a little surprised by his lack of energy on the field – both on offense and defense. With that said, he showed good athleticism sliding to his right to block a wild pitch and also while fielding a ball out in front of home plate. If he’s still in the organization in April of 2013, d’Arnaud will head back to triple-A at the new affiliation in Buffalo and will look to continue polishing his game while awaiting a big-league opening.

Additional Notes

After four-plus years writing about prospects from a first hand perspective, Travis D’Arnaud is still the best all-around catching prospect I’ve seen in person. If he can produce like Ryan Doumit (.275/.320/.461) with league average defense behind the plate, he’s a definite upgrade over incumbent JP Arencibia who could be flipped to fill a need elsewhere. (Mike Newman)

 

#2 Aaron Sanchez (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
20 25 18 90.1 64 3 9.66 5.08 2.49 3.41

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2010 draft (34th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

Sanchez, the 34th overall pick of the 2010 amateur draft, spent the majority of 2012 pitching in low-A ball at the age of just 19. Despite his youth, he overpowered the older competition with a strikeout rate of 9.66 K/9 and just 64 hits allowed in 90.1 innings. Healthy all season, Sanchez’s innings were limited by Toronto’s development plan that relies on tandem starters in the lower levels of the system. The right-hander has elite stuff, including a fastball that can hit the upper 90s, but his command and control are currently below average. One talent evaluator asked about Sanchez, though, wasn’t worried because his pitches have so much natural movement to them and he’s still learning to harness his pitches after his fastball jumped a full grade between 2011 and ’12. The evaluator said the California native could still be a very good pitcher even if his command/control doesn’t improve, suggesting he could be an average big leaguer pitcher with 40 control and a potential star with 50 control. The same evaluator said Sanchez’s solid delivery and arm action should help him harness the ball better as he grows as a pitcher and gains more experience. He also said the young pitcher could end up with three plus pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup).

Additional Notes

In conversations with scouts at the ballpark, no prospect generated more buzz than right-hander Aaron Sanchez. Player comps included Matt Garza on the low end and Justin Verlander, “if everything broke just right.” Another scout mentioned he was shocked he lasted so long in the 2010 draft after seeing him pitch in person. (Mike Newman)

 

#3 Noah Syndergaard (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
19 27 19 103.2 80 3 10.59 2.69 2.60 2.21

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2010 draft (38th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

Syndergaard has come a long way since being considered a “signability pick” during the 2010 draft. A late bloomer in high school, the tall Texan’s velocity now sits in the mid-to-upper 90s and can touch triple-digits. He also possesses above-average control for both his age and experience level. The issue with the right-hander, though, is his secondary stuff. Both his curveball and changeup currently grade out as below average and questions remain about their future potential. A talent evaluator asked about Syndergaard’s secondary stuff commented, “The curveball has come a long, long way… it is, at times, average,” He also stated that the young pitcher is toying with a slider and referred the changeup as “OK.” If the secondary pitches don’t improve then Syndergaard could develop into a shut-down, high-leverage reliever who could dominate on the strength of his ground-ball-inducing fastball. When I saw him pitch in May it looked like he was getting out in front of the curveball and dragging his arm behind him – making it almost impossible for him to throw it for strikes. He also was not doing a good job of holding base runners. The tall Texan should move up to Dunedin in 2013.

Additional Notes

One scout I spoke to commented Syndergaard’s fastball had the potential to be “Mat Latos Good.” And while that’s high praise, his secondary offerings lagged significantly behind earning a high leverage reliever projection from this particular contact. The number three ranking is deserved if one believes Syngergaard develops into a mid-rotation starter. If not, then Osuna, Nicolino and Norris should be higher than the big right-hander. (Mike Newman)

 

#4 Roberto Osuna (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
16 12 9 43.2 32 2 10.10 3.09 2.27 2.79

Opening Day Age: 18
2012 Level: R+/A-
Acquired: 2011 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: A/A+

Osuna rose up the depth charts more than any other prospect in the Jays system in 2012 and the organization now considers him as valuable as fellow young hurlers Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Justin Nicolino. The teenaged Mexican hurler burst onto the prospect landscape when he struck out 13 batters and allowed just one hit in 5.0 innings of work during his debut in the Northwest League in late July. He’s a big, strong 17-year-old who spent part of 2011 pitching in the Mexican League against players capable of playing at the double-A and triple-A level. Osuna’s fastball gained a full grade between signing in 2011 and opening the ’12 season. He regularly sat 93-95 mph with his fastball after previously scraping 90. One talent evaluator saw him hit 96-97 mph with Nicolino’s pitchability. “He’s absolutely legit,” was the comment given. Watching Osuna pitch reminds me of a young Bartolo Colon, a former Montreal Expos pitcher. When I saw him, Osuna struck out nine batters in 5.0 innings in the Northwest League finals, and allowed just two hits. He worked quickly, showed good command and is mature beyond his years. He seemed to favor the curveball to the changeup but I felt the latter pitch was better on that night. Osuna will likely move up to the Midwest League in 2013 – although he’ll be just 18 – but will be on the same restrictive innings program that the young starting pitching staff in Lansing was on in 2012. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

 

#5 Justin Nicolino (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
20 28 22 124.1 111 6 8.61 1.52 2.46 2.54

Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2010 draft (2nd round)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

The 2010 amateur draft could go down as one of the best in the history of the Toronto Blue Jays organization thanks to the plethora of high-ceiling arms that includes Nicolino, Aaron Sanchez, and Noah Syndergaard, as well as Sean Nolin, Sam Dyson, and Asher Wojciechowski (now with the Astros). The trio of young arms is ticketed to open 2013 in high-A ball (Dunedin) in 2013. Although Nicolino has the least “pure stuff” of the group his pitchability and command/control give him a chance to develop into a No. 3 starter. He can still get his heater up to 92 mph with plus control. That’s still decent velocity for a southpaw and as one talent evaluator stated, “He has more velocity than most people think.” That same evaluator said that Nicolino’s changeup is a plus pitch and his curveball shows moments of being above-average, as well, and that he’s toyed with throwing a slider. The downside to the lefty, though, is that none of his pitches currently project to be a swing-and-miss out-pitch at the big league level. When I saw him pitch mid-season, he was doing a solid job of hiding the ball, which helped his fastball look faster. He utilized a low three-quarter delivery and worked quickly. Everything was coming from the same release point and his delivery was smooth and easy. Nicolino showed some athleticism by fielding his position well.

 

#6 Jake Marisnick (OF)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 607 134 32 8 40 116 27 .250 .319 .391 .326

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2009 draft (3rd round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA

Signed for $1 million as a third round draft pick in 2009, Marisnick was placed on the fast track in 2012, playing at both high-A (Dunedin) and double-A (New Hampshire). The athletic outfielder produced respectable numbers prior to his promotion to double-A but then struggled against the more advanced pitching, producing a 74 wRC+ (well below league average) in 223 at-bats. Even prior to his big payday there were questions about Marisnick’s bat but one talent evaluator was not worried and stated that the organization re-worked his swing twice during the season, including right after his promotion to double-A. He also added that Marisnick was definitely the best athlete in the system and as good defensively as current Jays outfielder Anthony Gose – just not as flashy. “He’s a physical specimen,” the evaluator said of Marisnick. “He has a lot of ability and tools.” The organization sent the center-field prospect to the Arizona Fall League to continue to get comfortable with the new mechanics of his swing and the talented evaluator commented, “I expect him to go off next year in double-A.” When I saw Marisnick play he displayed good range in the outfield but got some poor reads on balls hit to him. Luckily, he has enough speed to make up for late reads and poor routes until he smoothes out the rough edges. He looked uncomfortable at the plate and pitchers were challenging him with a lot of breaking pitches.

 

#7 D.J. Davis (OF)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
19 266 57 10 5 27 70 25 .250 .355 .386 .356

Opening Day Age: 18
2012 Level: R/R+/A-
Acquired: 2012 draft (17th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A-/A

The Jays’ 2012 first round draft pick, Davis is an electric young player with pure 80 speed that helps him both in center field and on the base paths. He played at three different levels during his pro debut, topping out at the college-aged Northwest League with Vancouver. Although most scouting reports fixate on the speed, a front office representative told me that Davis’ bat could become a plus tool with time: “It’s a simple swing and it’s quick… the power is the one tool that maybe gets overlooked with D.J. He’s got very strong hands and will show you raw power.” I personally saw him play at the end of the year in the Northwest League and his speed was exciting. He almost legged out a one-bouncer to the third baseman, who played the ball perfectly. Davis showed a well-balanced stance at the plate and has a simple load. He does tend to rely on his quick hands too much in his swing, though, and could stand to incorporate his lower half more consistently. After receiving some playoff experience with Vancouver, Davis is set to open 2013 in full-season ball with low-A Lansing. Consider current Jays outfielder Rajai Davis to be the floor for D.J..

 

#8 Daniel Norris (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
19 13 12 42.2 58 4 9.07 3.80 8.44 3.81

Opening Day Age:
2012 Level: R+/A-
Acquired: 2011 draft (2nd round)
Projected 2013 Level: A

When the Jays organization lost out on signing its 2011 first round draft pick it freed up some cash to sign Norris, who was considered by some to be the superior prep pitching prospect anyway. He didn’t pitch after signing and made his pro debut in 2012 in advanced-rookie ball. His numbers may look bad on the surface – a 7.97 ERA and 44 hits allowed in 35.0 innings – but he allowed a BABIP of .367 and had a FIP of 3.80. His strikeout rate was also outstanding at 9.77 K/9 and his control rate was average at 3.34 BB/9. Norris was moved up to Vancouver at the end of the season and made two final starts. One talent evaluator liked what he saw from Norris this past season: “I saw Norris twice this year and he was excellent both times… I think the big inning got him a few times and I see the high ERA as more of a product of bad luck than lack of quality pitching (or) stuff.” The southpaw has some work to do on ironing out and repeating his delivery but his changeup made huge strides during the year and projects as a plus pitch. His fastball sits in the low 90s but can tough 94-95 mph when needed. With a strong spring Norris could move up to low-A Lansing.

 

#9 Sean Nolin (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
22 20 18 101.1 81 7 9.59 2.40 2.04 2.91

Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2010 draft (6th round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

One of the biggest surprises of the 2012 season was the emergence of Nolin. As one front office person stated, “I haven’t seen him on any top prospect lists yet, but he should be.” The southpaw missed some time due to injury but he blew through high-A ball with a 2.19 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 86.1 innings. Nolin, 22, also made three starts in double-A. He has a big, strong pitcher’s frame and could develop into a No. 3 or 4 starter depending on the development of his secondary stuff. He’s very aggressive with his fastball that sits in the low 90s and it can touch 93-94 mph. His curveball has a shot at developing into a plus pitch but his changeup was referred to by the evaluator as “a work in progress.” It was also suggested that, if the repertoire cannot be improved upon, Nolin could be a successful “power lefty coming out of the ‘pen.” He should return to the starting rotation at the double-A level in 2013 and, if he can stay healthy, he could reach the majors by the end of the year.

 

#10 Adeiny Hechavarria (3B/SS)


Age PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld WAR
23 137 2 0 .254 .280 .365 .281 73 -2.3 -0.2

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA/MLB
Acquired: 2010 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

The 23-year-old Cuban is known for being a highlight-reel shortstop with outstanding range, soft hands and a strong arm.The position is currently manned at the big league level by Yunel Escobar but incumbent second baseman Kelly Johnson is a free agent this winter and his spot could be filled by Hechavarria, creating an all-Cuban middle infield for the Jays in 2013. Hechavarria saw time at third base, shortstop and second base for the Jays during a 41-game debut and his offensive skills are not suited for the hot corner at all. The right-handed hitter has some gap power but likely won’t challenge double digits in home runs even with regular playing time. Because he doesn’t use his speed on the base paths to steal bases, Hechavarria’s ceiling with the bat is reliant on his ability to hit for average but he projects to hit in the .240 to .260 range, which would make him a below average offensive player and an eighth- or ninth-hole hitter. Poor plate discipline is the main issue with Hechavarria’s approach so there is some hope that he’ll improve in that area given enough experience. His outstanding glove work and run-saving ability, though, could make him a solid big league regular. Ideally, he could probably use at least another half year of seasoning in triple-A Buffalo.

 

#11 A.J. Jimenez (C)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 112 27 4 2 5 13 2 .260 .297 .375 .304

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2008 draft (9th round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Travis d’Arnaud is easily the best catching prospect in the system but Jimenez also has a chance to be an everyday big league backstop. The Puerto Rico native was considered a Top 3 round talent in the 2008 draft but slid to the ninth round due to concerns over an elbow injury. He played through the issue until his elbow finally gave way in 2012, resulting in Tommy John surgery after just 27 double-A games. Jimenez should be ready to return to double-A at the beginning of 2013 but he may have to DH until his elbow is fully rehabbed, likely in May or June. I watched Jimenez play shortly before his injury and he was utilizing a wide, well-balanced stance at the plate. His approach was clearly designed to generate line drives, rather than over-the-fence power and he was relying heavily on his hands. He was stabbing a bit at the ball and needed to stay back more. Known as a very good defensive catcher – with a strong, accurate arm – Jimenez was a little lazy with his receiving in this game. With no runners on base, he was setting up very late and didn’t give a target with his glove; he allowed the pocket of his glove to point down to the ground, rather than out to the pitcher as a target. On the plus side, he was very quiet behind the plate and gave the umpire a great look at the ball.

 

#12 Marcus Stroman (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
21 15 0 19.1 16 1 10.71 4.19 3.26 2.89

Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: A-/AA
Acquired: 2012 draft (22nd overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

Stroman would have placed a little higher on this list had he not tested positive for a performance enhancing drug, resulting in a 50-game suspension that will significantly cut into his 2013 season. The first round draft pick out of Duke University in 2012, Stroman is an undersized right-hander whose future big league role is still undetermined by the organization. He has a compact delivery but there is some effort to it. He has relatively long legs and they’re clearly quite strong. When I saw him pitch early in his pro career he was dropping his elbow a bit, causing command and control issues. When he’s going well Stroman shows a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and also utilizes a promising slider that could have a future 65-70 grade. When I saw him pitch Stroman showed some impressive fastballs with explosive arm side run. However, I struggle to envision the right-hander as a big league starter. He has the potential to develop into a high-leverage reliever and should open his 2013 season in late May at the high-A level and could move quickly if he shows more consistency with his delivery.

 

#13 Santiago Nessy (C)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
19 203 43 9 9 16 54 0 .236 .305 .434 .334

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: R+/A-
Acquired: 2009 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: A

Nessy was a big ticket international signing back in 2009 but has moved slowly (by design) and spent the past three years in short-season ball. He played the majority of 2012 in advanced-rookie ball but received a late-season promotion to the Northwest League to experience playoff baseball with Vancouver, although he was overmatched in six regular season games and sat on the bench during the post-season. Nessy’s greatest asset as an offensive player is his raw power and he could hit 20+ home runs in the majors with regular playing time. However, high strikeout rates will limit his ability to hit for average – which sounds a lot like current Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia – but Nessy has better plate discipline – although it’s far from perfect and his pitch selection needs work. The catching prospect has made huge strides on his defensive game, thanks in part to the work he’s done with former big leaguer, and current minor league manager, Sal Fasano. Although Nessy has a large frame, much like Fasano did, a talent evaluator told me the prospect is very flexible and can provide pitchers with extremely low targets and an above-average arm. He was referred to as a “legit catcher” and his ability to speak English well (along with Spanish) gives him added value.

 

#14 Matt Smoral


Opening Day Age: 19
2012 Level: INJ
Acquired: 2012 draft (50th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: R+

Despite the new amateur draft budget limitations in 2012 the organization managed its money extremely well and came away with some players that other teams deemed unsignable under the new rules. Smoral was one of those players and he turned his back on a scholarship offer from the University of North Carolina thanks to a $2 million signing bonus. The teenager did not play after inking his contract due to a foot injury that was suffered prior to the draft – and caused him to slide to the 50th overall pick. The lefty stands 6’7” but has good body control for his age and experience level. His fastball sits in the 89-94 mph range and he also shows a promising slider. His changeup remains a work-in-progress. Said one front office person familiar with Smoral, “I love how the ball comes out of his hand. I believe he can be explosive when he reaches his ceiling… He has a chance to be a power fastball/slider combo guy.” The organization was hoping to have him on the mound for the fall instructional league but was going to be very cautious. He should open 2013 in extended spring training before heading to rookie or advanced-rookie ball.

 

#15 Alberto Tirado (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
17 14 14 48.0 32 0 7.31 3.19 2.63 2.89

Opening Day Age: 18
2012 Level: R/R+
Acquired: 2011 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: R+/A-

Tirado was acquired during the same signing period as fellow Jays prospects Wuilmer Becerra, Dawel Lugo, Jesus Gonzalez, Jairo Labourt and Manny Cordova – and received the smallest signing bonus – but he could end up being the best prospect out of the bunch. After seeing his fastball range from 87-91 mph when he signed, Tirado has now seen his velocity jump to 93-95 mph. He also has a curveball, changeup and slider, which the talent evaluator I spoke with rated as his second-best pitch. I was told that the organization lowered the prospect’s arm slot from three-quarter to low-three-quarter and it added depth to the power slider. Tirado skipped over the Dominican Summer League and came to North America to play as a 17 year old, which speaks to how highly the organization views him as a prospect. With that said, he’ll be handled cautiously and will likely open 2013 in extended spring training before returning to the Appalachian League or, possibly, the Northwest League. He’s a long way from realizing his full potential and his lack of size is the biggest detractor from his ultimate value.




Print This Post



Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospect analysis. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

54 Responses to “Toronto Blue Jays Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Grady says:

    Good stuff Marc. Any chance we could get your short list of the “at least another 10-12 prospects legitimately in the running for the 10-15 spots on this list”?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. George Nickerson says:

    Suprised Gose wasn’t in top 15?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Kyle says:

      He graduated.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jabalong says:

        Why has Gose “graduated” off the prospects list and not Hechavarria?

        They both broke into the majors this year and Gose’s edge ingames played doesn’t seem that significant to me (at 56 to 41).

        They both could easily end up starting off 2013 back in AAA, and at the moment the path to landing a starting job might be clearer for Hechavarria.

        Just curios, what’s the criteria for graduating Gose vs Hechavarria?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jabalong says:

        To answer my own question. Is it “rookie status” that’s the difference here? I see that at 126 plate appearances, Hechavarria falls just under the 130-level for keeping his rokie status (while Gose is over it at 166).

        If that’s the determinant, then fair enough, though really I don’t see much difference in practice between Gose and Hechavarria in that they both probably should start 2013 at AAA, though both could end breaking Spring Training with the big club, possibly even with starter jobs.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Marc Hulet says:

        I use the same rookie eligibility as Major League Baseball: “Determining rookie status:
        A player shall be considered a rookie
        unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or
        50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on
        the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player
        limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. spclxk says:

    Great stuff, Marc!

    Do you have any comments on Anthony Alford? Or is the fact that he has a two-sport commitment makes him more difficult to evaluate?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. tbjfan says:

    No Kevin Pillar?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Marc Hulet says:

    Gose exceeded the rookie limits.

    Pillar just missed… He was in the 16-20 range. I heard some nice things about him but based on what a very good talent evaluator/contact told me, I’d think his future was more of a No. 4 outfielder along the lines of Reed Johnson. Here’s a quote about Pillar: “He’s one of those prospects that grows on you. He’s a good baseball player… that can barrel up balls and steal bases even though he’s an average runner… and he’s a great team guy.”

    In no particular order, names in consideration for a Top 30 would include:
    John Stilson, Dwight Smith Jr, Marcus Walden, Adonys Cardona, Chase DeJong, Dawel Lugo, Wuilmer Becerra, Dalton Pompey, Chad Jenkins, Kevin Pillar, Christian Lopes, Franklin Barreto, Anthony Alford, Ryan Borucki, Tyler Gonzales, Matt Dean, Jairo Labourt, Anthony DeSclafani… Hopefully I didn’t miss anyone.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Tyrell says:

    It would be a nice addition to see bat handedness, throw handedness, height, weight for each prospect. The reports were well-done!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Marc Hulet says:

    Click on the players’ names and you can see all that good stuff.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Jeff says:

    Mark. Great stuff. Nice to see Nolin get some credits for his great year.

    In your list of others, you have included Pillar, even with the “age” concern and this is great, as he does seem to continue to hit, plus the addition of SB this year looks promissing as a 4th OF.
    The other prospect with age concern who totally dominated this year, is Taylor Cole, any reason he doesn’t get any mentions next to Pillar?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. MattK says:

    Kenny Wilson and Deck McGuire could be top 30 also.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. JT says:

    Describing Bartolo Colon as a “former Montreal Expos pitcher” was… charitable. Great piece! I look forward to reports on other clubs.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. BuffaloSjourn says:

    No too shabby when you have a player who’s been described as being as close as you can get to a sure-fire Major Leaguer (Marcus Stroman) that can’t even crack the top 10!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. Marc Hulet says:

    Taylor Cole’s stuff is a little short and his future is No. 5 starter or middle reliever so the ceiling wasn’t there… I saw him pitch and he has to be perfect with his control/command to survive.

    Stroman was in the Top 10 but the suspension and uncertain future role pushed him down. I also want to see more from him to get a better gauge on his command/control.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jensen says:

      Mitch Nay remember his name , if you can put in Matt Dean who performed as well as Jacob Anderson consider an injured Nay as equal as of the two other prospects

      Hoping they will make me eat my words

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. dave says:

    if Alfrod was a full-time baseball prospect, where would you have had him ranked?

    Also, should we be worried about the high number of high school outfielders that the Jays have drafted and missed on, outside of Marisnick/Davis ?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. josh says:

    Thanks so much Mark. This is great – and on a Monday morning no less.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. Eric says:

    This is my favorite time of the year on Fangraphs. Great job, as always.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  16. Marc Hulet says:

    If Alford committed full time to baseball I probably would have ranked him in the Top 10, definitely the Top 15. He’s raw enough as a player that, unless he gets regular development on the diamond, he’s probably never going to reach the majors.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  17. Denny says:

    The Jays have definitely have a plan and its pitching, pitching and pitching. It’s easy to dream on a future rotation. Obviously injuries and trades will deplete this list, but considering the young guys already there with Hutchison and Alvarez the roation in 3-5 years could be deep and very talented.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  18. John says:

    What’s your evaluation of Christian Lopes if you don’t mind?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  19. brian fawcett says:

    The comments on the Jays being committed to Arencibia because the pitchers trust him is flat out inaccurate. He’s said to be uncoachable and flaky, and the organization is much more likely to trade him than d’Arnaut. They don’t like his Ks or his lack of plate discipline as a hitter, either.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Ian says:

      Comment seemed a bit weird to me, if only because the Jays’ pitching just ended up 26th in ERA and K/9, and 28th in BB/9…who cares if they trust Arencibia – it’s not working!

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Marc Hulet says:

        I didn’t make the comment, it was expressed to me. My personal opinions aside, the organization is supportive of Arencibia’s work with the pitchers. We don’t see everything and I have never seen (in writing) or heard anything about Arencibia being uncoachable. And no organization LIKES Ks, but they’ll take tradeoffs is a player is producing in other areas (such as power).

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  20. Marc Hulet says:

    Here is a quote on Lopes from a contact: “He’s confident, he can hit, he’s a baseball rat… I think he can be an everyday second baseman with offensive ability.”

    I like Lopes but want to see a little more from him before I get too excited… His defensive value is likely to be average for the position so his bat is really going to have to play to be an impact guy.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  21. Benjamin Ebek says:

    If Gose hadn’t exceeded the rookie limits, where would you have placed him on this list?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  22. Shoedog says:

    Marc, Thanks for great stuff. Where would gose rank if he were eligible? What do you see Gose’s slash line being in majors this coming year? when and if he reaches his potential?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  23. Your Van Cs says:

    If Cole’s future is as 5/middle reliever where would you see Avendano? Am guessing you saw him live as well. Throws a bit harder than Cole. Also, where do you see the center fielders falling next year? Pompey in Dunedin and Davis in Lansing? Great piece by the way, I saw Osuna a few times in Vancouver. Exciting prospect, would love to see him with Lansing 3 in Dunedin next year.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  24. Marc Hulet says:

    Osuna will be in Lansing and will be moved slowly and will have the same innings limit. Avendano is another 4/5, more likely middle reliever. I am expecting both Pompey and Davis in Lansing to open the year.

    Gose would probably rank third, maybe fifth… I’d have to sit down and play those players against each other before settling 100%. I would see the top line for Gose in 2013 being .240/.320/.375 or along those lines. I like him a lot but he still has a lot of growth to do and I know the Jays see the best case scenario allowing him to open 2013 in AAA.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  25. Daryl says:

    What are your thoughts on DeJong? Is he a future closer type? Could they stretch him out? I am in a sim league and drafted him last year after reading some things I liked. Just curious what your thoughts are. Thanks.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  26. Brian Stevenson says:

    Is this the first of the rankings articles? One thing Fangraphs isn’t great about is the ease of finding out about articles you may have missed, as it’s pretty much just one big running list that gets cutoff after a period of time. Maybe each piece in a series could have a link at the top to the previous one, or at least say this is x-out-of-x in the series so we have an idea about what we may have missed.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  27. Jon Roegele says:

    Marc, do you have any recommendations on players to watch that might be in Vancouver next season?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  28. ThatGuy says:

    I’m surprised Sam “Best-Stuff-in-the-Organization” Dyson didn’t take the top spot…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  29. Marc Hulet says:

    There is a link on the main page for the Top 15 series that will be updated with each Top 15 organization, and yes this is the beginning of the 30 reviews that I will be compiling over the next 5 months.

    DeJong is not really a closer type… multiple pitch guy that relies on good command/control with upside… No 3/4 ceiling.

    Hard to say for sure, at this point, who will be in Vancouver in June 2013… maybe Adonys Cardona, Canadian Shane Dawson was given to me as a deep sleeper to keep an eye on… Jairo Labourt… maybe Alberto Tirado at some point in the year… Matt Dean…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  30. everdiso says:

    excellent rankings, Marc. Can’t even quibble with any of the rankings…..except maybe the growing Sanchez v. Syndergaard debate, because I think Sanchez’ control is a big concern.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  31. David MacLean says:

    Awesome list. Thank you so much for getting this together, Marc. I always look forward to this every fall.

    My question: Where would Hutchison fit into the top 10?

    Thanks in advance!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  32. Conebome says:

    Great job with this! Very thorough and you justified the rankings well. Hopefully we see some more positive signs out of these guys in 2013.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  33. Marc Hulet says:

    Hutchison would probably rank second or third based on the success he showed in the majors before getting hurt. His raw stuff is below Sanchez/Syndergaard, though. Present skills vs ceiling….

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  34. FenixL says:

    I know you released an extensive blue jays prospect list last year over at batters box, will you be doing the same thing this year? It was a fantastic read

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  35. chief00 says:

    AJ Jimenez at #11 is a head-scratcher. His pre-draft stock dropped because of arm issues. Now the arm troubles are a reality, he’s sub-par offensively, and he’s still top 15? Is he even likely to make it out of the minors? Thanks.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Marc Hulet says:

      I think you’re over-estimating the league average production of a big league catcher. Jimenez projects to be an average offensive producer, if not better and the arm should bounce back better than ever given the advances in TJ surgery.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • chief00 says:

        You’re probably right. How does AJ Jimenez compare/contrast to Carlos Perez, who was dealt to HOU in the Happ deal? It seems as if Perez was a little more polished offensively, and he’s slightly younger. Was Carlos Perez part of TOR’s milb overpay for Happ (Musgrove, Wojiechowski, Comer, Rollins)? Thanks again, Marc.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  36. everdiso says:

    subpar offensively? Jimenez has been above average offensively despite being young for his level, aside from his 112 plate appearances this year.

    AA (21): 112pa, 83wRC+
    A+ (20): 422pa, 115wRC+
    A (19): 292pa, 113wRC+

    Heck, he compares very favorably to D’Arnaud before this injured season, being similar offensively but a year younger:

    A+

    Jimenez (20-20): 422pa, 115wRC+
    D’Arnaud (21-21): 292pa, 109wRC+

    A

    Jimenez (19-19): 292pa, 113wRC+
    D’Arnaud (19-20): 610pa, 112wRC+

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  37. Scace says:

    Numbers 5, 6 and 10 off to the Marlins. Revised list coming?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  38. George Nickerson says:

    Might as well wait until trading done before revising the list

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  39. Stuntman says:

    Numbers 1 & 3 off to the Mets. Good thing the list wasn’t revised yet

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current day month ye@r *