Ultimate Base Running (UBR)

I’m pleased to announce that FanGraphs is now carrying a comprehensive base running stat: Mitchel Lichtman’s Ultimate Base Running (UBR).

UBR is now being included in WAR for years where UBR is available (2002-2011).

Though 95% of all players will have their WAR changed less than .4 wins in any particular season and less than 1.3 wins over their careers, we feel that the inclusion of UBR in WAR will help properly credit/debit players who truly excel or are particularly awful on the base paths.

UBR is available under “Bsr” or “Base Running” in the player pages and leaderboards.

Here’s an excerpt from the UBR primer that we’ll be posting later today:

Base running linear weights or base running runs, or Ultimate Base Running (UBR), is similar to the outfield arm portion of UZR. Whatever credit (positive or negative) is given to an outfielder based on a runner hold, advance, or kill on a batted ball is also given in reverse to the runner (or runners). There are some plays that a runner is given credit (again plus or minus) for that do not involve an outfielder, such as being safe or out going from first to second on a ground ball to the infield, or advancing, remaining, or being thrown out going from second to third on a ground ball to SS or 3B.

Runs are awarded to base runners in the same way they are rewarded to outfielders on “arm” plays. The average run value in terms of the base/out state is subtracted from the actual run value (also in terms of the resultant base/out state) on a particular play where a base runner is involved. The result of the subtraction is the run value awarded to the base runner on that play.



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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.


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Russ
Member
Member
Russ
5 years 2 months ago

How much of UBR is included in WAR? Is it 0.1, or some other multiple?

bluejaysstatsgeek
Member
5 years 2 months ago

It would be additive, wouldn’t it. You add hitting WAR plus defensive WAR and now base-running WAR to get WAR. WAR is cumulative.

Barkey Walker
Guest
Barkey Walker
5 years 2 months ago

And how was replacement modified?

Yirmiyahu
Member
Yirmiyahu
5 years 2 months ago

Why would replacement get modified?

WAR = batting runs above average (based on park adjusted wOBA) + baserunning runs above average (based on UBR) + defensive runs above average (based on UZR) + positional adjustment + replacement level adjustment (20 runs per 600 PA’s).

Dave Gershman
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Dave Gershman
5 years 2 months ago

So it’s a better version of EQBRR by being less weighted?

Also, this is awesome

Detroit Michael
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Detroit Michael
5 years 2 months ago

I’d also be interested in knowing how it resembles or differs from EqBRR (or whatever the Baseball Prospectus parallel statistic is called).

BaseWinner
Member
BaseWinner
5 years 2 months ago

Very excited about this stat and the presentation. Thanks!

Ryan
Guest
Ryan
5 years 2 months ago

Me Gusta

hansman1982
Guest
hansman1982
5 years 2 months ago

FINALLY – we have a stat to track the TOOTBLAN’s and a way to prove Theriot’s ineffectiveness on the basepaths for us last year.

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
5 years 2 months ago

Giddyup!

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
5 years 2 months ago

I’m curious about how this stat will compare with BP’s EQBRR. How small is a “small sample size” with this stat. I guess it will all be covered in the primer later today.

Eric
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Eric
5 years 2 months ago

Can’t. Wait.

Obsessivegiantscompulsive
Guest
Obsessivegiantscompulsive
5 years 2 months ago

I would be interested in hearing how different this is from Bill James work.

Another great metric from Fangraphs, the hits just keep on coming!!! Thank you!!!

Metsox
Member
Member
Metsox
5 years 2 months ago

Can’t wait to see how the Royals rate out this year…

ddriver80
Guest
ddriver80
5 years 2 months ago

:/ They rank 4th in team BSR

RedSoxThoughts
Guest
5 years 2 months ago

Yes. This is awesome. Can’t wait to hear all of its details.

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
5 years 2 months ago

Wow! I just found something else that James Loney and Miguel Tejada are really bad at — base running!

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
5 years 2 months ago

How can Aaron Rowand have the second most Bsr in the NL? He’s never on base!

Young Gung
Guest
Young Gung
5 years 2 months ago

Thanks for the update. David, any chance of xBabip coming in the near future?

Judy
Member
Judy
5 years 2 months ago

Jacoby Ellsbury 2009, 70 SB, 12 CS, EQBRR: 8.2, BSR: -1.5.

ddriver80
Guest
ddriver80
5 years 2 months ago

Stolen Bases Aren’t included…

Judy
Member
Judy
5 years 2 months ago

Thanks, that makes a lot more sense.

Yirmiyahu
Member
Yirmiyahu
5 years 2 months ago

Just to clarify: UBR does not include SB/CS at all? Those are instead included in batting/wOBA ?

ddriver80
Guest
ddriver80
5 years 2 months ago

So, just another thing Bautista is top 15 in this year huh?

ddriver80
Guest
ddriver80
5 years 2 months ago

Also, I’ve been hoping for a baserunning stat to be included here. It was reinforced after Arencibia ran to 3rd when Encarnacion was standing on third thus running into an out.

Nick
Member
5 years 2 months ago

So funny. Most of that is due to his on base percentage (he’s 30th in MLB if you look at UBR/TOB) but awesome nonetheless.

ddriver80
Guest
ddriver80
5 years 2 months ago

Hell, even 30th ain’t bad.

UBR is really going to help show baseball IQ. If you look at those at the top of the leaderboards, its the intelligent players up top.

Yirmiyahu
Member
Yirmiyahu
5 years 2 months ago

I would think it’d be a rating of smart baserunners as well.

But if you sort by all-time (2002-2011) UBR, and look at the bottom and the top of the leaderboard, it looks more like pure speed.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0

don
Guest
don
5 years 2 months ago

Regardless of how smart you are it’s easier to score from first on a double if you’ve got serious wheels.

Smart baserunning helps, though. I’m pretty sure Luis Castillo won’t beat Crawford, Reyes, or Victorino in a footrace, even 5 years ago.

Jonathan C. Mitchell
Member
5 years 2 months ago

So glad this is coming in. Been waiting for a stat like fWAR to include baserunning.

m123
Guest
m123
5 years 2 months ago

pedroia tripping over himself last night -10

NateH
Guest
NateH
5 years 2 months ago

I remember an article a while back on how we say stats. UBR is definitely Über in my books.

Wraithpk
Guest
5 years 2 months ago

Is this park adjusted at all? It seems to me that players who play most of their games in more spacious parks will be able to take extra bases more often.

AC_Butcha_AC
Member
AC_Butcha_AC
5 years 2 months ago

I think this a serious concern. I looked up the Team-Leaderboards since `02 and as I expected the Red Sox ranked dead last in Bsr.

So a park-adjustement seems intuitive to me.

Ted Williams Head
Member
Ted Williams Head
5 years 2 months ago

Wow, UBR is about half of Chone Figgins’ 2010 WAR.

Yirmiyahu
Member
Yirmiyahu
5 years 2 months ago

Check out Figgins’ 2006. ALL of his WAR comes from baserunning.

SFSUGatorAlum
Guest
SFSUGatorAlum
5 years 2 months ago

I wonder how this will affect Ruben Rivera’s overall WAR.

Ted
Guest
Ted
5 years 2 months ago

Very cool. Is it possible to turn this into a rate state, like UZR/150?

UBR/150 opportunities, or something?

Jeffrey Gross
Member
5 years 2 months ago

Dave,

How does UBR differ from (EQBRR-EQSBR)? Or is it identical?

Jeffrey Gross
Member
5 years 2 months ago

*David. Oops. :)

MGL
Guest
MGL
5 years 2 months ago

Some of the questions answered on the other UBT thread…

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