The list of umpires scheduled for the LDS has been released. As much as they should not be a factor in the games, several of their decisions will ultimately be scrutinized this postseason. The following is a look at which umpire strike zones are most likely to get notice and affect the game.
I am not going to get into any discussion on if the umpires and their strike zones are good or bad. They are their own individuals. The more I look into the subject, the differences can be some of the 2% that can be exploited to gain an advantage over other teams.
At the beginning of the season, I rated which of the umpires are the most hitter and pitcher friendly. Here is a look at each umpire, their rating and what series and game, for now, they are to umpire. I know there are only five games, but I included the last umpire in case there are any changes. The umpires at the top of the list are more hitter friendly and those at the bottom are more pitcher friendly:
|Name||% of Called Strikes in Strike Zone||% Difference compared to Mean||Series||Game|
|Davis, Gerry||29.7%||-1.1%||Tigers – Yankees||1|
|Marquez, Alfonso||29.8%||-1.0%||Brewers – D-Backs||2|
|Layne, Jerry||29.8%||-1.0%||Phillies – Cards||1|
|Danley, Kerwin||29.8%||-1.0%||Rangers – Rays||3|
|Gibson, Greg||29.9%||-0.9%||Rangers – Rays||4|
|Hoye, James||30.0%||-0.6%||Brewers – D-Backs||6|
|Fairchild, Chad||30.2%||-0.4%||Phillies – Cards||6|
|Welke, Tim||30.2%||-0.3%||Tigers – Yankees||6|
|Iassogna, Dan||30.3%||-0.3%||Tigers – Yankees||4|
|Dreckman, Bruce||30.4%||-0.2%||Brewers – D-Backs||4|
|Guccione, Chris||30.4%||-0.1%||Phillies – Cards||2|
|Scott, Dale||30.4%||-0.2%||Rangers – Rays||1|
|Meals, Jerry||30.6%||0.2%||Phillies – Cards||3|
|Carlson, Mark||30.6%||0.1%||Rangers – Rays||2|
|Kellogg, Jeff||30.7%||0.4%||Brewers – D-Backs||5|
|Cederstrom, Gary||30.7%||0.4%||Phillies – Cards||5|
|Hudson, Marvin||30.7%||0.4%||Rangers – Rays||6|
|Kulpa, Ron||30.8%||0.4%||Brewers – D-Backs||2|
|West, Joe||30.9%||0.6%||Brewers – D-Backs||1|
|Hernandez, Angel||30.9%||0.7%||Phillies – Cards||4|
|Barrett, Ted||30.9%||0.6%||Tigers – Yankees||5|
|Gorman, Brian||32.1%||2.3%||Rangers – Rays||5|
|Randazzo, Tony||32.1%||2.3%||Tigers – Yankees||2|
|Cooper, Eric||32.1%||2.4%||Tigers – Yankees||3|
The main item that jumps for me is that the Yankees and Tigers start with the umpire with the smallest strike zone (Gerry Davis) and then move to the two umpires with the largest strike zones (Tony Randazzo and Eric Cooper). Here is a visual look at Gerry Davis’ and Tony Randazzo’s strike zones, in comparison to league average and then compared to each other for right-handed hitters.
Note: The strike zone is from the catcher/umpire’s perspective. The square is the rule book strike zone and the circle is added for visual reference. The scale is the percent that the umpire calls a pitch a strike in that part of the strike zone. If the umpire is being compared to the league average or another umpire, the values are the difference in percentage points. The zone is adjusted according to the player’s height.
When looking at them this way, some difference can be seen, but it is very hard to detect. To see where they differ from the rest of the league, here is a comp between them and the league average:
Again, it can be seen that Davis is less likely to call the inside strike compared to Randazzo
That was a look at just a couple of umpires. You can get the information on any umpire by doing the following:
Goto http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/graph/ Name: fangraphs pw:Dave
Navigate to: Umpire Called Balls and Strikes Heat Map.
Select the umpire and requirement to get the information you desire.
Hopefully the umpires are non factors this postseason. Probably not, though. Now you will have a little information on the nature of the umpire (pitcher or hitter friendly) and the shape of their unique strike zones.