Upcoming Races

Los Angeles, 99 wins
Boston, 97 wins
New York Yankees, 95 wins

Kansas City, 69 wins
San Diego, 68 wins
Washington, 55 wins

Based on Baseball Prospectus’ updated PECOTA team projections, these six teams are the only ones among all 30 teams that are projected to finish with more than 90 or fewer than 70 wins this season. The other 24 teams comprise the entire divisions of the NL Central (currently five teams within four games of the lead) and AL West (currently three teams within five games of the lead).

It is a shocking display of parity amongst a vast majority of the teams in baseball and should lead to among other things, a rather stagnant trading deadline as a remarkable nine teams in the AL and 12 teams in the NL are currently in or within five games of a playoff berth. That is 21 teams in total that right now would consider themselves to have a reasonable shot at post season play.

As boring as that might make July 31st, it should make August and September exciting. And with the economy the way it is, there might be more post-July 31st deals this season with more teams reluctant to lay waiver claims on expensive players. Of course the economy might also prevent teams from trading for some of those hefty salaries, but with the playoffs in more direct sight and a more tangible pay off looming in terms of ticket sales, perhaps teams will pull the trigger more often.

Even if not, we stand a good chance at seeing some close finishes for playoff spots, even if the eventual winner is around the 88-win mark instead of the usual 92 wins or so.



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Matthew Carruth is a software engineer who has been fascinated with baseball statistics since age five. When not dissecting baseball, he is watching hockey or playing soccer.


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Tom B
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Tom B
7 years 1 month ago

i wonder why the angels are predicted to finish so high, with their complete lack of a rotation and 2 super stars on the DL… maybe that’ll change when they get swept this weekend :)

Jack
Guest
Jack
7 years 1 month ago

Angels? I think that’s the Dodgers bud …

zepPSD
Guest
7 years 1 month ago

I think he was referring to Torii and Vlad and the fact that the angels are posting a 5.03 tRA this year. :shrug:

scatterbrian
Guest
scatterbrian
7 years 1 month ago

And who are these superstars? Scot Shields and Kelvim Escobar?

zepPSD
Guest
7 years 1 month ago

Ah, just realized where the misunderstanding was, my bad, I thought it was referring to the Angels as well.

scatterbrian
Guest
scatterbrian
7 years 1 month ago

Sorry, press release this afternoon. At the time they hadn’t announced it, and it didn’t show on their 40-man roster.

Tom B
Guest
Tom B
7 years 1 month ago

yeah sorry about that, i wasn’t even thinking. thats what i get for posting at 8am lol

Judy
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Judy
7 years 1 month ago

I’ll be surprised if Tampa doesn’t win more than 90 games, and I’m very surprised Pecota doesn’t project them to.

Davidceisen
Guest
Davidceisen
7 years 1 month ago

Well they are on pace to win 88.6 games right now.

Judy
Guest
Judy
7 years 1 month ago

But with the run differential and talent to win more than they have been.

mattymatty
Guest
7 years 1 month ago

Anytime the Red Sox and Yankees both go into the deadline within a few games of each other the media goes completely apesh*t. Generally that is enough to qualify as “an exciting deadline” but you might have a different definition.

And Tom B: I thought ‘Angels’ when I read Los Angeles as well. AL fan I guess.

Paul
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Paul
7 years 1 month ago

I don’t know how the Dodgers are doing it. They’re just not this good and they are not going to win 99 games this season. Their rotation after Billingsley is a house of cards…Kershaw is inconsistent and unreliable, and Wolf is an injury waiting to happen. And those are their 2 and 3 starters, not to even mention 4 and 5. Unless they make a trade to shore up their pitching, they will not win 99 games and will not get past the 1st round of the playoffs. And by next year the Giants will have passed them (again) as the class of the division.

Adam
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Adam
7 years 1 month ago

Guess that marketing maneuver from Arte Moreno is paying off

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