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Updating Tie Scenarios, AL Wild Card and Beyond

It was a rough week for Team Entropy, as sweeps by the Orioles and Athletics knocked out most of the larger snafus the Rays and Angels could have caused over the final three games:

There’s still room for a three-way tie between the Athletics, Rays and Angels, though, and the AL East, AL West and NL Wild Card could also see tied finishes as the year comes to a close.

Here are the possibilities we have heading into Monday’s action:

As with Friday’s post, odds are calculated using the log5 method and third-order wins from Baseball Prospectus. For more, see the original post.

Last time, we only covered the odds of a three-team pile up or more. Odds of over eight percent on Friday have dwindled to under one percent, forcing us to direct our attention towards the more conventional (yet still exciting!) two-way tie as well. Particularly with Baltimore and New York tied heading into the weekend, chances of extra baseball are still worth noting.

Here’s how it all shakes out:

Tie Odds
OAK/ANA/TBR 0.0045
OAK/ANA 0.0105
OAK/TBR 0.0268
TOTAL AL WC 0.0414
BAL/NYY 0.2153
STL/LAD 0.0772
AT LEAST ONE TIE 0.3143
ANY TWO TIES 0.0297
ANY THREE TIES 0.0010
ALL FOUR TIES 0.00001

With just three days to go, we’re looking at a 31.5% chance we’ll see at least one tiebreaking game and a wholly possible 2.6% chance of two tiebreakers. Things aren’t looking good for a nightmare scenario of three (1 in 1000) or four (1 in 10000) tiebreaker games, but crazier things have happened.

Unfortunately for those on the side of chaos, the Athletics and Orioles continued rolls knocked out the chance at an even wilder final half-week. Still, the Rays and Angels have kept hope alive and the AL East, AL Central and NL Wild Card races should give us a fun few days of scoreboard watching.