Upton or Crawford
With Carl Crawford set for a large raise when he becomes eligible for free agency this winter, there has been a school of thought that the Rays might deal their star left fielder this summer in order to extract value for him before he leaves this winter. However, with the team atop the AL East, it seems unlikely (to say the least) that the Rays would deal one of their best players, and the team has publicly stated that they’ll do whatever they can to keep him, though they obviously can’t compete with the big payroll teams if one comes calling with a few barrels of cash.
However, I wonder whether we’ve been speculating about the wrong outfielder that the Rays may put on the block this summer. With B.J. Upton struggling once again, perhaps he’s the toolsy OF that Tampa Bay will dangle this summer.
While he’s always possessed star potential, Upton’s disappointing 2009 season was one of the reasons the Rays weren’t able to repeat as a playoff team last year. He’s shown no improvement this year, as he continues to get himself out by chasing pitches out of the strike zone. The result – a .210/.285/.370 line that gives him a well below average .301 wOBA, not that different from the .310 wOBA he posted a year ago. After drawing walks in 15 percent of his at-bats in 2008, that number fell to 9 percent last year and has remained there this year. While Upton does have power and speed, he doesn’t use either well enough to compensate for a poor approach at the plate. After what looked like real improvement in pitch selection two years ago, it’s been nothing but regression ever since.
For the last year and a half, Upton has essentially been an average baseball player, with his value mostly coming from his glove in center field. However, with his second trip through arbitration coming up at the end of the season, he’s no longer cheap enough for the Rays to sit around and hope he lives up to his talent level. They’re paying him $3 million this year, and that will likely go to $5 or $6 million next winter. For the Rays, that’s a significant amount of the budget, and money that could potentially be offered to Carl Crawford if Upton wasn’t around.
While trading a guy who was a +4 win player in both 2007 and 2008, and doesn’t turn 26 until August, is certainly a pretty big risk, the Rays may have to decide whether they’d have rather have Crawford or Upton going forward. They almost certainly can’t have both, and Crawford’s the one that is actually making them a good team right now. Instead of shipping off the star player who does everything well, perhaps Andrew Friedman and company should consider shopping the underachiever who is reaching the point of his career where he’s no longer cheap or all that young. There would certainly be a market for Upton, as teams will always take chances on that kind of talent, and the Rays would be able to replace him far easier than they could replace Crawford.
Given their budget, Tampa Bay won’t have that many chances to win it all. If it costs them the potential of B.J. Upton to keep the present of Carl Crawford, that may very well be a trade worth making.
The Rays would never trade low unless their hand were forced (see: Delmon Young). Upton’s value is undoubtedly low right now.
The Rays sold high on Delmon Young after a pretty good rookie season. The Rays sold low on Dukes and Kazmir.
Sold low on Kazmir? Hardly. In the three or four starts preceding Kaz’s trade he had been dominating and if you compare his performance then to his performance now (and looking at the return) then the Kazmir trade was definitely not selling low. Granted, Kazmir was not the performer he was in 2007, but given how he’d been doing in 08 and 09, his value was clearly at a high.
Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but the Dukes trade was catalyzed by off the field trouble
Young had a pretty good season, according to the voters. But it wasn’t all that good. They sold high, as the fans might say (average, RBI). But it wasn’t really selling “high.”
…It might have been buying “high” though, on the Twins part.
Pretty sure Rays didn’t sell low on Kazmir, unless you think they should have traded him in 2007. Kazmir would have probably been traded before the regular trade deadline if he’d shown even an ounce of potential. His last pre-trade start was a 10 K, 1 R performance.
And if you don’t believe me still, check out the haul the Rays got in return from the Angels. Either the Rays sold high, or the Angels were high.
Why would it matter if they are selling low or high? Ideally they’d want to sell high on a player but if they are hoping to open a spot for Jennings and hang on to Crawford, Upton is the logical player to go, regardless of his value. If they do manage to re-sign Crawford, everyone is going to know they have to trade Upton so his value is going to be low anyway.
And with either, but especially Upton, the drop off from him to Desmond Jennings isn’t much, if anything at all.
The big risk would be trading Upton and then not being able to sign Crawford.
Are the Rays confident they’ll resign Carl?
No. Not at all. The only situation where I could see that happening is if BJ got traded, but I doubt that that happens and even then it’s probably unlikely. As a Rays fan, I’m going to estimate that we have a 5-10% chance of re-signing him, especially when considering that Desmond Jennings is looming.
5-10% chance? Lucky Rays… I think my Brew Crew have a 1% chance of re-signing Prince after the 2011 season.
Upton, no matter how difficult it’s been for him at the plate, will still return a nice package in a trade because he has power, speed, and great defense. Heck, the Oakland Raiders might trade for him if Al Davis evaluated Upton.
So bender, I’m curious what percentage you’d put on re-signing Crawford if they trade Upton. Got an estimate?
Dave is right.
Upton could fetch more since he would be at a reasonable (though not super cheap) salary for another couple of years. Odds are Carl walks end of this year. However, if you keep carl through the year and the yankees offer 200 mil, you do get two draft picks.
If you trade carl, whoever offers you a package in return must offer you more than what two draft picks would be worth. However upton might still fetch more, and there is the issue that there is a real value to winning.
I think you float both as being available, and see which offer is truly more meaningful.
$200 million? He’s not going to get half that.
I was just thinking about this in the shower this morning… weird!
Would the 5 or so million saved from Upton actually make it easier to retain Crawford though? Hitting the FA market under 30 is a pretty sure fire way to get a contract well in the 100 millions. Especially since the three big market teams could all be looking to add a corner outfielder this off-season. Is there any chance of the Rays being able to match offers if they end up breaking the 100 million/18 million per mark regardless of whether they move Upton or not?
And is Uptons value really more than Crawfords at this point on the trade market? I’d imagine there aren’t many people lined up to pay more for his potential than there would be for Crawfords. I feel like they’d be more likely to get a swapping under performers type offer.
Maybe it’s not ideal to sell low on Upton but I don’t see them ever being able to sell high on him because he will be expensive by the time he may actually play to his ability.
I would really like this team to just go all in and keep their best players because they are such a great team to watch, so much homegrown talent or guys they made good deals to pick up.
I’m not sure how Crawford will age but I think this team needs to take some risks and I feel like Crawford has a better chance of playing to his ability than Upton or Pena for that matter.
I couldn’t see this happening. Bj will be cheaper for a few more years than Crawford would be regardless. Now Crawford is a stud I get that, but I think they have a much better chance keeping Bj Upton longterm then they will ever have this Crawford. You could potential sign Upton to a 10yr 100 million contract today, not sure Crawford would take it. Not that the Rays have that money nor that Upton is worth that, but just an example. If I were the Rays i would go with Jennings-Upton-RF and take the 2 draft picks from Crawford. It sucks to lose the best player in your history, but Longoria could probably replace that within a few years anyway. The Rays are pretty stacked right now, I think they can afford to lose Crawford, although being in the AL East maybe they can’t. I would risk losing Crawford over Upton though, Upton has a chance at being affordable for them, Crawford will probably demand 100M, not sure the Rays can afford that regardless of who’s on the roster.
Here’s a question about that regarding the AL East. What if they’re losing him to the Red Sox or Yankees. Doesn’t that make a bigger difference than him just walking? Since it would be directly subtracting from them and adding to their two biggest rivals.
It’s not a matter of whether Upton money could help resign Crawford; it’s a matter of tying up an absurd percentage of the team’s total payroll in one guy, particularly a guy who isn’t likely to get a whole heck of a lot better in the years to come. I’m pretty sure an Upton trade is highly unlikely; but even if it happens, it would have very little bearing on Crawford.
deadline deal: BJ Upton for Adam Dunn?
Dunn DHs. Jennings takes over in CF.
Why would Washington want Upton? they need a power bat in the middle of the line and are deepest the positions Upton plays. It seems to me that Dunn for Sonnastine/Neiman would make more sense. Although Brad Hawpe for Sonnastine would make a lot of sense to
because Upton seems like the kind of guy a team like Washington should take a chance on — still talented and young, lots of potential, maybe a change of scenery can work. They can wait it out a year or two because they’re not contending for another couple years and he wouldn’t be blocking anybody immediately.
Dunn is going to leave, and DC’s prospects aren’t going to be ready in 2011 anyway, and it’s not like anybody they got out there now is that great. Washington needs power bats, but what don’t they need right now other than a 3B or SS?
Hawpe for Sonnanstine makes great sense for the Rays, but no sense for the Rockies. I don’t see the Rockies having a big need for a seventh starter.
I would say Nyjer Morgan is a very nice CF option I personally think they will re-up Dunn as a sign to their fan that are not giving up on the next couple of years. It may not make the most baseball sense but at the same time it is necessary to build the base
@Gina … Same thing w/ Teixeira last year. NYY add him to their lineup, keep him out of BOS’s. Double bonus.
Being a Red Sox fan, this hurts but would be great for baseball… Sonnastine, Wade Davis, and Upton for Adrian Gonzalez. Perfect package for SD and AG will replace Pena, Jennings can replace Upton, and TB can offer CC $15-16M per year for 7 years.
Gonzales contract is up next year, they’d just be facing the same problem, and there’s almost certainly no way they could offer Crawford that kind of money and resign Gonzales the year after.
The Nats are contending this season and I would imagine they will push hard to resign Dunn. Despite his defensive struggles, I don’t see how bad he can hurt the team playing first base and his offense is very valuable and consistent.
The rays have the best record in baseball. They have a chance to get back to the world series. Maybe even win it all. Upton is healthy and playing well plus he has a big upside. The Kasmir deal was a great deal for Tampa, they dumped a guy with a big contract who is on a downward spiral. Not sure if Sean Rodriguez will be able to hit big league pitching but just getting the angels to pickup his contract was a great deal for tampa.
Crawford is gone. Even if the Rays were able to outbid the Red Sox or Yankees, those empty seats in Tampa must make it a depressing place to play. Look for him to be in pinstripes since I don’t think Boston is his kind of town, and his value as a LF’er is higher with the Yankees than in Fenways short LF (of course he could move to CF). With the Yankees, Gardner could move to CF, and they could move Granderson to DH or trade him.
If Tampa drops out of it by July, not saying it will happen, but their offense has some issues at the bottom half of the order, then Crawford would return the most in a trade.
The only time Upton has ever impressed me at the plate is the 2008 ALCS. Trading him now is selling low, makes no sense. Can’t see him making a killing in arbitration based on the last 2 years. But he is not even close to his peak offensive years at 25. Better off signing him to an extension and eating up some FA agent years. He might go for it for some security because even he realizes he is not worth much as FA the way he is hitting. He would be better off being a FA after a couple of great years at 27 and 28 than after 2011.
With Carlos Pena struggling like he is, offering him an extension would be a prudent move, if a bit of a gamble. Some players try too hard in contract years, and he got off to a slow start in 2008 as well. Pena has to be worried about what he will get in this depressed market if his season does not turn around, and given his history of broken fingers, he might not get a chance. He might take less than you think. Of course, Boras might not be happy with that.
I was just talking to my cousin about this this morning. As a Rays fan, I wouldn’t think they’d ideally want to ship BJ Upton while his value is so low. But if it makes room for Desmond Jennings, and they thing it will help them win the race, then they’ll do it.
As for Carl Crawford, I think everyone is putting his chances of re-signing too low. Remember, they will have Pena, Burrell, Soriano, Crawford and potentially even Bartlett (if they decline him arb) coming off the books next year. That’s over $35 million off the books With the FA pool looking pretty awful in 2011 for OFs, and them needing a LF, 1B, and potentially a RF, they’ll undoubtedly think about offering a contract to CC.
They need to go for it..THIS YEAR….put some kind of package together and get Cliff Lee from Seattle…yes I know the pitchers have been great and Hellickson is ready etc etc..but it’s still May….When September rolls around Lee is going to be huge for somebody…..(Yankees) unless we beat them to the punch.
CC will not be with the Rays next season unless he’ll take 5 years / $60M which the union wouldn’t let him take even if he was willing. Tampa MIGHT be able to fit $15M for a year or two, but in the L/T no way as their other young players get older and paid more. But the length is as important as CC is peaking and simply won’t be worth even $10M a year after a few years, let alone in 6 or 7 years, which is the length of the deal he’ll end up getting. This organization looks at costs v. production and will make decisions accordingly. Example, If Brignac plays well at SS while Bartlett is out, don’t be surprised to see Bartlett traded in the offseason. Even if Brignac is a falloff, the modest difference is worth saving $4M.