What is Houston Doing?

The Astros continued their spending this week with the addition of third baseman Pedro Feliz, signed today to a one year contract for a reported $4.5 million. He is likely to take over full time duties at the position.

The Astros got a combined .241/.308/.356 line from their third basemen last year split between Geoff Blum and Jeff Keppinger mostly. In that respect, Pedro Feliz‘s 2009 line of .266/.308/.386 is a clear improvement, as sad as that is. Though Felix is aging — 2010 will be his age 35 season — he still posts consistently good defensive numbers at third base, numbers that coincide with a good fielding reputation from scouts.

Granting that Pedro Feliz might be the Astros’ best option at third base next year, I still do not see the point in this deal. The 2009 Astros finished 74-88, 17 games out of the divisional lead. At best, Feliz’s 2009 was worth about a half win more than the Astros’ 3B combo platter was in 2009.

Blum and Keppinger are still under contract with the Astros, so it looks like Houston just added $4.5 million to their payroll in order to get a couple runs better, at best. At worst, Feliz is no better than Jeff Keppinger, who would have been by far the more cost-effective starter.

Addressing the hole at third base is a good idea for Houston, but you don’t address a hole by filling it with air. You already have plenty of air; why bother paying money to import premium air from Philadelphia?




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Matthew Carruth is a software engineer who has been fascinated with baseball statistics since age five. When not dissecting baseball, he is watching hockey or playing soccer.

65 Responses to “What is Houston Doing?”

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  1. PL says:

    There is a word called “rebuilding” that Ed Wade refuses to acknowledge the existence of, and its a sad cry for help that he keeps doing stuff like this. The Astros have the worst farm system and a mediocre team. They need to start over.

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    • philosofool says:

      Admitting failure gets you fired. Wade is so bad that the people who are in charge of deciding whether he keeps his job are the ones really at fault for the Astros at this point. But Wade’s boss either doesn’t care or doesn’t know that he’s horrible at what he’s supposed to do. That means that if Wade keeps denying failure, his boss will keep him hired.

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      • PL says:

        What a truly sad state of affairs. Its like Oakland-in-reverse. Meanwhile, teams who go down the rebuild path like the A’s and Indians, will be in playoff races in a year or two.

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      • The A Team says:

        The people who need to be fired are the ones who hired Wade in the first place. He had a long tenure in Philly as one of the top 3 worst GMs at any given time before the Astros plucked him from the office the Phils “promoted” him when they added Gillick.

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    • Teej says:

      They needed to rebuild before Wade was hired. I imagine he was the only candidate crazy enough to think he could make a few tweaks and create a winner, and Drayton McLane had found his man.

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    • Jay says:

      I’m sure Ed Wade has acknowledged the need for the Astros to rebuild from the moment he took the job he even acknowledged the need to build through the farm system in his first press conference.

      He has pumped alot of money that the Astros weren’t spending on international scouting and has since made a few top international signings. Has hired one of the best scouts in baseball, Bobby Heck and they’ve had some nice drafts and more importantly they’ve convinced owner Drayton McLane, who’s kind of inept on the baseball side of things the importance of spending money to sign top draft picks..which the Astros hadn’t done in the three prior years.

      And I think last year the Astros signed all of the picks in the first 17 rounds and something like 28 of the first 29 picks were all signed, the best ratio in baseball. They are slowly building a farm…and fans have to realize that it does take time.

      I mean Ed Wade was the guy (along with some good scouts) who did build the core of that Phillies championship team through the draft.

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      • jfish26101 says:

        I tend to agree with your analysis of Wade more then the people who just say he flat out sucks. I do agree that his attempts to compete now are obviously not working so do have to wonder whether they would be better to go full rebuild mode. You generally need to have a good care already with good depth in the minors to retool, neither of which Wade was handed when he took over. That is a tough environment to be in, I have a hard time faulting him completely.

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      • CircleChange11 says:

        That’s the question I have. Everybody here at FG is bashing the Astros for trying to improve through some FA signings, and I’m wondering “What would YOU do?” (to them)

        HOU has next to nothing in MiLB (or at least hasn’t since JR Towles was supposed to be a big deal).

        I asking authors to list the moves they would make or list the roster they’d achieve if they were running the show.

        They seem to be the “White Sox” of the NL … not enough good player to really be declared a contendor, yet not enough young/MiLB talent to undergo rebuilding (as well as some biug contracts they’re saddled with). The fortunate thing, for both teams actually, is the weakness of their division. But, that’s also a possible negative thing in that they never start the season “completely out of it” signalling that “rebuilding has begun”.

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  2. neuter_your_dogma says:

    Little picky here bashing this move. A one-year 4.5M for Feliz, standing alone, isn’t horrible. And as you say, it does upgrade the team.

    Also, though the “I still do not see the point in this deal. The 2009 Astros finished 74-88, 17 games out of the divisional lead” logic makes some sense, Houston’s division isn’t great. So with a few career years, some luck, and some central division misfortune, the Astros could compete for the division. Likely? no.

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    • marcello says:

      You can’t think the of the move as “standing alone” though. They now can’t use that 4.5M to upgrade the team by more than a few runs. The way the market has played out so far, that much money should have upgraded the team by ~15 runs.

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    • chuckb says:

      The other thing that needs to be pointed out is that Houston’s top prospect, or the one closest to the majors, is a third baseman — Chris Johnson — who played relatively well at AAA and is considered to be not far away. When Matthew says it would be relatively easy to replicate Feliz’s production w/ Keppinger and Blum it ignores the fact that Johnson is liable to get many PAs w/ the big club this year.

      It upgrades the team? Maybe by adding half a win over Keppinger and Blum but add in Johnson as well and the 3 of them combined can probably give Houston (or could have before Feliz was signed) the production that Feliz will provide at less than half the price. This is a ridiculous move, though obviously not as bad as the Lyon signing. They Lyon signing reeks of Wade’s decision to throw ridiculous $ at Kaz Matsui.

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  3. Jake says:

    I’m in Philly and I highly doubt that there are many places (if any) that could possibly benefit from Philly air.

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  4. philosofool says:

    Wade is so bad that the people who are in charge of deciding whether he keeps his job are the ones really at fault for the Astros at this point. But Wade’s boss either doesn’t care or doesn’t know that he’s horrible at what he’s supposed to do.

    I’m going to follow up on my own comment: how the hell does someone have enough money to own a fucking baseball team and not have the sense to hire a person good enough at his job to make that team at least decent? Seriously: if I had a gazillion dollars, one of the things I would do with it is buy a sports team (The Red Sox, actually. And then I’d move them to New York, but that’s another fantasy). And then, instead of letting someone completely stupid spend my money on shitty free agents, I would learn enough about the sport to make a competent decision about whom to hire to manage the team. It violates everything I believe about economics that the people who own baseaball teams don’t figure out how to maximize their profit from them. Are these people just rich spoiled assholes with so much money that they light their cigars with burning bills?

    End Rant.

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    • Rob says:

      Because he’s really bad at running a baseball team. He’s the guy who gave Lee his contract by all reports. He gave Biggio mid 7 figures for his last season though no one else wanted a an obviously broken down Biggio.

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    • twinsfan says:

      I approve of this post.

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    • MH says:

      ” It violates everything I believe about economics that the people who own baseaball teams don’t figure out how to maximize their profit from them.”

      Unfortunately, profiting and winning are not necessarily correlated in baseball. I believe strongly that Drayton McLane knows how to make a profit.

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      • philosofool says:

        Brandon Lyon was going to bring in more than the $15M they’re paying him for marginally better than replacement level relief pitching? Look, I’m sure that there are owners who don’t care as much about winning as making money, and I bet they do a pretty good job of it. My guess is that the nostalgia money made on Ken Griffey Jr. in Seattle pays for his contract and then some. Fine. (Which is not to say the M’s FO doesn’t care about winning. It’s just a nice example of an over-market contract that probably pays for itself.) Brandon Lyon isn’t exactly selling jerseys.

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      • MH says:

        @philosofool:

        My comment was meant to be more general.

        I don’t think that Brandon Lyon is a good signing, but I do believe that Drayton McLane, in general, knows how to make a profit.

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    • PhD Brian says:

      I am a professor of business and extreme wealth in business does not come from high intelligence. It comes from being willing to work much harder than the other people, taking many financial risks others would consider imprudent, convincing others your more honest than average (studies show very wealthy people cheat and lie less than the average person day to day), and getting real lucky (being in the right place at the right time).
      Note imprudence and extreme luck can make you rich. For example, those who bought real estate like crazy in 2008 are likely to end up much better off. In 2008 most people considered real estate imprudent to own.

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    • Rob Glover says:

      Keep the profanity down!

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  5. jasoncollette says:

    Ed Wade is a reflection of Drayton McLane; the blind leading the blind. Both men should be kept as far away from a baseball team as possible.

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  6. TJ says:

    I guess Felix is aging.

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  7. JohnisGone says:

    I wonder how much longer till Houston fans start fireedwade.com up again?

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    • The A Team says:

      The domain is for sale.

      It’s good to be a fan of a team that once sucked and is now trying to figure out if it can add a 3rd ace to the rotation after having already marginally improved its NL leading offense…

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  8. Joe R says:

    Feliz just got $1 for his playing ability, but $4,499,999 for his been-there-before-ness, and his championshipness.

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    • PL says:

      Well according to this very site, Feliz was worth $5.7MM for this play last year. They do weight defense a little too heavy in that number IMO, that is indeed where Feliz shines, but the strange thing is, Feliz could have gone to a team with at least SOME chance of winning, probably for roughly the same amount. He has no reason to be in Houston and probably only signed early because the nature of the market.

      Hope he enjoys that extra couple hundred grand.

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      • Joe R says:

        To be fair to Feliz, it’s just a one year contract, he can go somewhere else next season and probably be a useful 3rd corner IF / PH.

        Feliz’s skillset as a hitter actually does lend itself to PH, since walks are often times borderline useless in PH situations (+0.133 runs w/ runner on 2nd and 2 outs, +.186 with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs, +.152 with a runner on 3rd and 2 outs). So he would be useful in that sort of Utility 1B/3B role.

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      • Eric R says:

        But, that is based on $4.4M per win… Thus far this offseason it is looking more like $3.5M per win. Do a 3-2-1 projection based on the last three years and knock of 0.5 for age related decline, and I get 1.1 WAR, which seems to be worth $3.9M this off-season.

        But, given a full season, Keppinger would project to about 0.4 WAR and would cost about the league minimum. So they really spent $4.5M for a 0.7 WAR upgrade $6.4M/WAR

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      • Bill says:

        He’s also pretty much guaranteed to start, which may matter a lot.

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      • CircleChange11 says:

        -Quote- Well according to this very site, Feliz was worth $5.7MM for this play last year. – quote -

        I have no horse in this race, but I do live it when someone references the very source issuing the criticism.

        Where are all of the graphs and charts showing how Feliz will add 5-10 HRs to his stats just by moving to The Juice Box, and how he pulls all of HRs, etc? Just being a stinker (friendly-like) on that one by offering some commentary on how people tend to go over the top in the support for something they like AND in their disdain for something they don’t.

        Feliz for 4.5M a year as a RHB in a short LF porch stadium doesn’t seem like an atrocity to me. Plus, you don;t have to platoon two roster spots to try and equal his production. You can take the other roster spot and use it for a more pressing issue.

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      • The A Team says:

        I’m not sure how you figure his homerun totals will go up 5-10, maybe I’m missing the sarcasm. CBP is not as bandboxy as most people would have you think, but it definitely helps the long ball, especially for RHBs that pull the ball. I can’t imagine any kind of power surge. In a much weaker lineup he should do worse at the plate.

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      • CircleChange11 says:

        I didn’t calculate the 5-10 HR increase. I just used the number from the Curtis Granderson situation.

        Some went to great lengths to illustrate that Granderson, a LHB that pulls the ball with power would benefit from moving to New Yankee Stadium, and went sorta overboard to show how it was a good trade for NYY.

        But, in Feliz’s case, it’s just a bad move and it’s left at that … even though, froim what I have seen, he’s pretty mcuh a dead pull hitter for power and moving to a park that has the shortest LF porch in the NL.

        I think both moves are decent, with Granderson’s being a really good acquisition, and HOU did what they can with what ios available and in their price range.

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  9. The book that Ed Wade is going by:

    Rebuilding, by Dave Littlefield

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    • ugen64 says:

      there is one positive to take from this signing – even old-school GMs are starting to value defense. 5 years ago, would an Ed Wade type GM really have signed Pedro Feliz for $4.5 million?

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      • Joe R says:

        That’s not true, they just value defense better now. There have been players throughout history valued for their perceived defense. Go as far back as Hal Chase, whom both BP and Bill James list as a mediocre defender at the least difficult position on the field.

        (of course he probably botched some plays on purpose)

        Also couldn’t take a walk if his life depended on it with a 3.48% career walk rate, but that’s besides the point.

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  10. recca says:

    Unrelated Question but . . .
    Could we get a topic that gives us some info on some of the players taken in the Rule 5 draft?

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  11. christopher says:

    Just so you know (and not that I’m defending Wade) but he didn’t sign Carlos Lee or Craig Biggio. He just seems like he did given his pedigree.

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  12. CJ says:

    I disagree with you on this one. The Astros had one of the worst infield defenses in the NL last year. They are trying to shore up the defense. I do think they are making a concerted effort to improve the defense by putting Manzella at shortstop and Feliz at 3d base. Without Tejada, the offense will be worse. But is Tejada really the answer if he costs $8 million/year and requires a multi-year contract? I can’t really disagree with the notion that the defense needs improvement. The Astros’ farm system is bad enough that Feliz doesn’t block any good prospects. This gives our young starting pitchers, Norris and Paulino, as well as young relief pitchers (Arias, Fulchino, Gervacio, Lindstrom) a chance to gain confidence with a decent defense behind them.

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    • chuckb says:

      Wrong. It blocks their 2nd best prospect — Chris Johnson — who had 412 PAs at AAA last year and is pretty near being ready. Johnson was almost certain to play a good portion of this season in Houston but now is relegated to another season at Round Rock and Drayton McLane throws $4.5 M down the toilet and, in August, will cry about how much money he’s losing.

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      • Jason says:

        Baseball America doesn’t have Johnson in their top 10 list for Houston. Not making a top 10 list for a crappy organization screams “not a real prospect” to me. Maybe I’m just not looking in the place that says Johnson is their 2nd best prospect.

        Regardless of his exact ranking, Johnson isn’t a guy you’d cry over if he gets blocked.

        If the argument was something like, “Feliz’s $4.5 million should be invested into getting premium talents in the draft”, I’d go along with that.

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    • njd.aitken says:

      You have to try and learn that is doesn’t matter how wins are obtained. 1 WAR acquired through defense is the EXACT same as 1 acquired through hitting.

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  13. lookatthosetwins says:

    As a twins fan, this is good news. I now know that we won’t spend 5 million dollars on Feliz. We may even step up and make that trade for Kouzmanoff, and end up with a better, cheaper, younger third basemen.

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  14. CH says:

    I read the title of this post and asked myself, “Is he talking about the Brandon Lyon signing, or the Matt Lindstrom trade?”

    Turns out, you’re not talking about either, and that makes me laugh, because the title really fits all 3 moves.

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  15. Mark Runsvold says:

    Clearly, Ed’s assembling pieces for a Halladay trade. A Feliz-Lindstrom-Lyon-Keppinger package is sure to get the deal done.

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  16. Joser says:

    I saw the title and answered “Drugs”

    Beautiful, mind-altering, judgement-destroying, drugs.

    Not the performance-enhancing kind, because those will get you in trouble.

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  17. CircleChange11 says:

    I don;t want to overly attempt to defend Houston, but a few things to consider in the moves they are making …

    The first is the division they play in. HOU seems to have a somewhat similar mindset of the AL West teams in that the division winner of their respective division (LAA in the ALW and StL in the NLC) are likely going to be “down” in production given some of the pieces both teams are likely to lose (DeRosa, Holliday, Lackey, Figgins, etc).

    So, if the teams in the division that are generally “middle of the pack” can improve in some areas, while getting some overall improvement, asnd perhaps some lucky bounces throughout the season, they could (even if just theoretically) make enough improvement to turn a handful of those losses into wins and be “right there” in contention for the division title. In the NLC, it seems every year that 88 wins (or so) *could* win the division. None of the teams in the NLC seem to be a “lock” for division champ.

    There’s also just not that many Chone Figgins around that can provide quite a bit of value toward wins for a reasonable salary. Everyone else is going to have to try and make due with the limited players available for obtaining.

    Certainly, they have to “try something” to take advantage of a situation where neither LAA or StL is going to be as dominant as they have been in certain years. Most likely, teams are trying to just “get into the hunt” where an addition in July might be enough to give them a nudge toward the playoffs.

    In the NLC, the Cubs are losing players as well, MIL has added some nice pieces, and CIN is still young. If you’re a .500 team in July in the NLC you’re likely within “striking distance” of whatever team is “slightly above .500″ and leading the division.

    Just trying to “get into the mind” of what these teams might be trying to accomplish. Whether there are better options available or not is debatable. But, the teams do seem to be trying to “do something” to add either some improvement or depth to their rosters in order to “have a chance”.

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  18. DK says:

    As an Astros fan, I’m baffled. I thought the Lindstrom deal was decent, but now Wade/McLane hit me with a fierce 1-2.

    Hawkins said he wanted to stay in Houston before and after signing with Milwaukee, but said the Astros only offered him 1 year. He’s been fantastic for us during his stay! I figured Wade didn’t offer him arbitration because they were working on a multi-year deal and Hawkins would’ve gotten a nice raise over last season’s ~$4 mil (after incentives) in arbitration. Fail. Instead, he takes a slight pay cut for 2 years in Milwaukee. Why didn’t we offer him at least 2 for $8 mil or 3 @ $11 mil?? It sounds like they didn’t want him all along and expected to retain Valverde through arbitration, which would’ve been expensive and dumb. (Thank you for your service — no give me those draft picks.) It kinda makes you wonder if those years of rumors about Drayton McLane are true… you know what I’m talking about.

    Apparently they’ve burned bridges with Tejada, who wants to stay as well and would play 3B. The Feliz signing secures that. Tejada is probably looking at $7-8 mil per for 2-3 years elsewhere.

    How is Brandon Lyon and Pedro Feliz at $9.5 mil for 2010 anywhere close to LaTroy Hawkins and Miguel Tejada for probably ~$11 mil total *at all* comparable??

    With regards to Biggio — His last contract was out of love and respect. He took a HUGE paycut in 2004, which he played for $3 mil, after having been paid an average of over $8 million from 2000-2003 ($9.75 mil in 2003). He was underpaid so that the Astros could make a run at the Series… $3 mil in 2004 & 2005, $4 mil in 2006, $5.1 mil in 2007. The bottom line is if Craig Biggio wants to play one more year, you pay him.

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  19. vivaelpujols says:

    This definitely isn’t a bad move. Feliz will almost certainly be worth 4.5 million next year, and if you arguing that it doesn’t matter if he’s worth it because the Astros aren’t going anywhere, then you are essentially saying that bad teams should never pay for free agents. Besides, the Astro’s aren’t terrible and play in a fairly weak division. They could certainly make a run if things go right.

    The only point I agree with is Chuckb’s. If Feliz is indeed blocking a prospect then it’s a mistake. However, the guy put up a .345 wOBA in AAA last year, which isn’t very good for a 3B prospect. He doesn’t walk, strikes out a lot, and has slightly above average power. He’s also 25. Unless he’s a stud with the glove, or scouts figure him to improve a lot, I doubt he’s anything better than replacement level.

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  20. Sekrah says:

    Agreed. This move isn’t nearly as terrible as being barked about on here.

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  21. B says:

    It all comes back to Drayton McLane. Wade is a loser but he’s just the owners puppet, he was the same way in Philly. The reason the Astros aren’t rebuilding is old Drayton refuses to figure out that’s the only way for them to build back up.

    I have no doubt Wade loved Lyon and wanted in on him, he’s always loved crappy middle relievers. the Gary Majewski signing is a typical Wade signing as well. But McLane is the one pulling the purse strings and giving him money to spend on players, & telling him to use the money in free agency rather than saving it to use on IFA’s/Draft picks.

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  22. CircleChange11 says:

    This site is “wicked fast” is posting a blog/article after every trade and immediately casting it into a good/bad trade group.

    What I would LIKE to see rather than much of the blah, blah, blah, is a LIST of the moves that each team could (possibly) make that would improve their performance AND be within a reasonable monetary investment (that would also be congruent with what the player is likely to get in the market).

    THAT, to me, would be far more interesting than the simple classification of trades as good/bad. Plenty of sites already do that, and I don;t think it takes any real in-depth knowledge to accomplish it. It could also be an opportunity to show how to use all metrics & market to get good “bang for your buck”.

    Some of these posts are simply the adult equivalent of “point and laugh”, and that has to run its course at some point.

    That’s not meant to be an insult, but more of a “challenge”. Rather than just rush to comment and classify a trade as good/bad, let’s have some “better” moves that could have been done for the same or better money that will improve the team.

    I would be VERY interested in that. We all hear lots of ideas that we think are “dumb” from blogs, fans, etc in regards to what their team *should* do. But, let’s hear some REALLY good ideas/articles on what our team could realistically do for reasonable money that would improve our team.

    My guess is that we’ll see many of the same names on all of the teams’ “should sign/trade lists” and then we’ll understand why EVERY team doesn’t make 3 GREAT signings/trades every year with all of them getting market value per win.

    For example, what are the moves that HOU could have made to put the team in a somewhat of a contender role, while paying players what the market indicates they would get, and be good investments in regards to wins/money?

    Everyone blasts teams for not doing enough to improve OR blasts them for spending too much to get too little. Let’s hear the ideas of how they can both improve by making sound business/personnell decisions.

    What are 3 or 4 better and realistic moves that HOU could have made to take advantage of a slipping StL and CHC?

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    • vivaelpujols says:

      CHC and StL are still heavy favorites. I think most authors on this site would say that Houston should be rebuilding, and I would agree. The Feliz signing isn’t bad, and Matthew knows that – he was saying that the Astros weren’t going anywhere, so paying market value for a free agent isn’t a good idea.

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      • CircleChange11 says:

        Like I said, I’m not going to go overboard on supporting HOU’s moves, just saying that they weren’t horrible and that any middle of the pack NLC team isn’t really ever “out of it” (at least before ASB).

        I would like to think StL and CHC are ‘heavy favorites’, but I think it’ll be closer than most, and possibly involving 5 teams with 6-10 games of each other. I think ’10 will look more like ’06 in the NLC standings. *grin*

        I think StL, MIL, and CHC are a little ahead of CIN and HOU, but (unfortunately) not by *that* much.

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    • Bill says:

      Ok, how about:

      Sign Troy Glaus on a 1 year + option contract.

      Trade Cash + PTNL to the Red Sox for Mike Lowell (an option at the time Feliz was signed)

      Sign Adrian Beltre to 4 year contract for whatever his demands are.

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  23. CircleChange11 says:

    Thanks for the time and comments. This is what I’d like to see rather than just the “sucks” comments all the time. You’ve taken the time to list other options that can be discussed as being better/worse options.

    I wonder if Glaus is willing to sign such a deal. With Figgins, Glaus, Feliz, and Beltre on the market this seems to be one of the few years where starting 3B can be had.

    If Glaus is willing to sign a 1 + option contract I’d be in favor of StL pursuing him. He’s probably a 3 WAR player, even after missing all of last year (basically). So, that puts him at what? 13M/y? Glaus is also one of those situations where they can put him IN their lineup and OUT of StL’s lineup … in a year when StL is losing Holliday and may lose DeRosa. DeRosa is also a potential 3 WAR 3B available.

    Beltre is not realistic (IMO). Any offer the ‘Stros make is going going to serve as a baseline for BOS to counter with. BOS will pay more money and offer an overall better opportunity. Not sure, that HOU is looking for a long-term contract, while they make a run in ’10, but likely decide to rebuild after that. Of course, a good value (Beltre at good money and production) can be traded for prospects, so that may help. I just don’t see HOU outbidding BOS for Beltre.

    Not sure if BOS would take $ + PTBNL over MRamirez or other prospect. BOS might have preferred to send Lowell to the NL, rather than DH in TEX.

    Lowell is another option, certianly … a good one. Potentially 3 wins, but for much more money. Bigger potential, bigger risk. I would think if they were serious about going after it in 2010, Lowell would have been a good pick-up … IF BOS were interested in what HOU could send in return.

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  24. CircleChange11 says:

    I’m new to the “baseball stats” forums, but I gather that FG and THT are “similar sites”.

    I just read this (link provided) and wonder why FG’s analysis of HOU’s moves are so different than THT’s?

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/astros-grab-two-relievers-ink-a-third-baseman/

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    • PhD Brian says:

      I tend to agree with you. Although this site is awesome, it does lose site of the revenue picture very frequently. Every regression of wins on revenue shows that every win matters to revenue. Whether you Win 52 or 53 matters for revenue a statistically significant small amount next season. But revenue is also based on the lags of previous years. In other words, the significantly small difference one year affects revenue for all years going forward. What this means is if you “rebuild” to much you can permanently kill the long term revenues of the club that one great year wont significantly fix. In other words, several horrible years followed by a WS is less profitable than a bunch of middling years without a WS (assuming your total costs are the same).

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  25. baggs says:

    It’s easy to rip on a GM when everyone is doing it, but let’s do a little research before we jump on the Wade sucks bandwagon. He has made some bad decisions. But he has also made some really good ones.

    Pulling guys like LaTroy Hawkins, Valverde, Alberto Arias, Fulchino…for beans were all very good moves.

    Also, you all forget the bet move he made. Bringing Bobby Heck on board. Because of that move The Astros have had two of the best drafts of any team these past two years.

    When Wade was hired he said it would take 3 years until The Astros are back in the hunt. This year the fruits will start to ripen. Norris, Castro, Jen Lo…Next year: Stud 19 year old pitcher Jordan Lyles, Seaton, Bushue… Will all start impacting the team right as monster contracts come off the books.

    Lastly, keep in mind that McLance pulls most of the strings and the biggest test of Wade’s regime will be his first staff. He hired Mills, Arnsberg and the rest where as he didn’t with Cooper and old pitching coach Dewey Robinson.

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