What Will the 2013 Red Sox Look Like?
The phrase “fire sale” has been frequently heard in the same sentence as “Red Sox” this weekend, as the trade that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto to the Dodgers had the tenor of one that gutted the team, and looking at their starting lineup on Sunday only reinforced that notion. But while the rest of 2012 may feature a slide not seen in New England since “Joe Kerrigan, Major League Baseball Manager” happened back in 2001, things won’t be quite so gloomy for the ’13 incarnation of the Olde Towne Team.
The trade brought the Red Sox down to approximately $46 million in guaranteed contracts, and many of those players are key cogs in Boston’s mainframe. Aside from those players, the team has 12 arbitration-eligible players, and they figure to double the payroll. Conservatively, let’s say that brings the payroll to $95 million. Let’s also allocate a conservative $18 million to David Ortiz, based on the assumption that losing Ortiz would be one public relations disaster too many for John Henry and his cohorts to handle.
That would leave the team with a payroll of $113 million, and as many as six spots up for grabs on the 2013 roster. Here’s a projection for how the roster may look — in pencil, of course — when free agency opens this fall. The column on the left are players who can solidly be expected to be on the active roster, with the column on the right representing players who could find their way into the mix at some point in 2013:
| Pos | Player | Pos | Player | On 40-Man? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | IF | Jose Iglesias | Yes | |
| 1B | OPEN | IF | Danny Valencia | Yes | |
| 2B | Dustin Pedroia | IF | Ivan De Jesus | Yes | |
| 3B | Will Middlebrooks | IF | Mauro Gomez | Yes | |
| SS | Mike Aviles | OF | Ryan Kalish | Yes | |
| LF | OPEN | OF | Daniel Nava | Yes | |
| CF | Jacoby Ellsbury | OF | Che-Hsuan Lin | Yes | |
| RF | OPEN | IF | Xander Bogaerts | No | |
| DH | David Ortiz | OF | Jackie Bradley | No | |
| Ben | Ryan Sweeney | OF | Jerry Sands | No | |
| Ben | Ryan Lavarnway | OF | Juan Carlos Linares | No | |
| Ben | Pedro Ciriaco | OF | Bryce Brentz | No | |
| Ben | OPEN | ||||
| RP | Daniel Bard | Yes | |||
| SP | Jon Lester | RP | Rich Hill | Yes | |
| SP | Clay Buchholz | RP | Mark Melancon | Yes | |
| SP | Felix Doubront | RP | Pedro Beato | Yes | |
| SP | John Lackey | SP/RP | Clayton Mortensen | Yes | |
| SP | OPEN | RP | Scott Atchison | Yes | |
| SP/RP | Franklin Morales | SP | Drake Britton | Yes | |
| RP | Andrew Bailey | RP | Chris Carpenter | Yes | |
| RP | Alfredo Aceves | SP | Stolmy Pimentel | Yes | |
| RP | Junichi Tazawa | SP | Zach Stewart | Yes | |
| RP | Andrew Miller | SP | Allen Webster | Yes | |
| RP | Craig Breslow | SP | Rubby de la Rosa | No | |
| RP | OPEN | RP | Alex Wilson | No |
So, that is six open spots, but I’m not necessarily assuming that all six spots will need to be filled in free agency. In a perfect world, the last spot in the bullpen is filled by Bard, but if not him, one of the many pitchers listed should be able to fill that spot. Likewise, the last spot on the bench seems likely to be filled by one of the players in the right column as well.
Two of the starting roles could be filled by players currently with the team as well. De La Rosa, if he’s healthy, could fill the last starting pitcher slot. De La Rosa is essentially all projection at this point, as he has missed most of this season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his FIP, as projected by ZiPS before the season, was identical to Buchholz’s. In left or right field, a platoon between Kalish and Sands, with a healthy dose of Sweeney mixed in just may do the trick. Nava could figure into the equation there as well.
Now, the question is, is the above a good team or a bad team? I would submit that it’s actually a pretty good team. Even during the worst offensive season of his career, Pedroia is still a top-10 second baseman, and both Aviles and Middlebrooks rank in the upper half of the league at their position this season. Ellsbury has shown that he can be a top-10 player in baseball, let alone a top-10 center fielder. When healthy, Ortiz has shown no signs of slowing down, and despite the best (or is it worst?) efforts of Melancon and Matt Albers this season, the Red Sox bullpen still sports an 88 FIP-, good for eighth-best in baseball entering Sunday. Catcher remains a concern, as does the starting rotation, but the structure of a good team still remains.
And that’s because the Sox really didn’t really have a fire sale. The four players traded away combined for 4.9 WAR this season, which as of Sunday, accounted for less than 15 percent of the team’s total. Whether or not Gonzalez keeps hitting like he did in July and August isn’t really the issue, the issue is replacing the production they provided this year, and there is no reason to think that is an unachievable goal. For starters, the Sox haven’t exactly received the production from their stars that they were hoping for this season. The three main players traded away fall into that category, but so do Pedroia, Ellsbury and Lester. None of those three has played to their capabilities this season, and Pedroia and Ellsbury also haven’t played full seasons. Rebounds from them will go a long way to making up that deficit.
Free agents will help as well. Here is a list of possible free-agent targets:
1B: Mike Napoli, Adam LaRoche, Lance Berkman, Scott Rolen
OF: Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn, Cody Ross, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino, Melky Cabrera, Torii Hunter
SP: Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum, Hiroki Kuroda, Kyle Lohse, Ryan Dempster, Francisco Liriano
Is that a robust first-base market? No, not really. But there are solutions there. And the outfield and pitching market is thicker than just Hamilton and Greinke. And keep in mind that is a) not an exhaustive list and b) only takes into account freely available options. There is no telling what the team could cook up with further trades. And while it isn’t a long list of players, it doesn’t have to be for a team that can hand out big contracts.
With the blockbuster trade, as well as injuries to Middlebrooks and Ortiz, the air has been let out of the 2012 Red Sox season. The team has a good foundation — even with everything that has gone on this season, the Sox still entered Sunday with the 11th-highest team WAR in baseball — and will have somewhere in the neighborhood of $60 million that they can play with in free agency (after re-signing Big Papi) without hitting the luxury tax. Should they not choose to spend that money and wait for players like Bogaerts, Bradley and Matt Barnes to graduate to the majors, things may look decidedly less rosy. Either way, the Red Sox are unlikely to be hailed as favorites heading into 2013. But that doesn’t mean they won’t be good.
You didn’t include Nick Swisher in possible FAs. Could he be a target?
Could fit in both 1B and corner OF too!
He’d be a perfect fit, I would think.
Yes please, that man needs to stop playing for all the teams I like least and come join one of mine.
Would you advocate trading for Upton, over signing Hamilton? A Sanchez signing over Greinke?
Thanks
I think Greinke for something like 6/110 would be a good fit for both sides.
I bet Greinke gets $20M annually. I don’t think it’s advisable for a team to do that, but my guess is someone will pay up.
Grienke is the best pitcher available. He’s going to get Cain money if not a little more.
I love Greinke, and I love the Red Sox, but that is a marriage made in hell.
I’m just happy they have room to take prince fielder in a trade.
I don’t think anyone has the room to take Prince Fielder anywhere
I think that a trade with the mets would work out really well for both sides:
Red Sox get: Jason Bay, Johan Santana, lucas duda
Mets get: John Lackey
This would plug a hole in left, 1b, and sp. I think it makes sense, as the mets want to reinvent themselves, and the red sox get 2 1 year contracts that they can afford to absorb. Lackey might find a renissance in the al, and I think bay will refind his power stroke in a park perfectly tailored for him. Duda will also man a fielding position better suited for him to allow him to focus on his hitting
Are you a Red Sox fan by any chance?
I didn’t see anything racist in his comment so I can’t tell if Sox fan or no.
A trade involving those four disappointments would be hilarious. I feel bad calling Santana a disappointment because of how good he once was, but pretty much is the case now.
You guys think he’s a Red Sox fan with that absurd proposal?
After they excercise Bay’s buy out after 2013, he’s owed $21.125m for one season. Santana is due $25.5m next season, then either another $25m for 2014 or a more likely $5.5m buyout, which brings his likely commitment to $31m for one season.
So that’s over 52m for one season of a guy who is completely useless (Bay) and a declining pitcher who has durability questions moving foward who projects as a #4 pitcher in the AL East. Throw in Duda who is a AAAA player and another useless part.
On the otherhand, Lackey is owed 30.5m over the next two seasons, and his injury clause will vest soon for the league minimum in 2015. That’s 3 years 31m. Lackey was absolutely terrible last season, but he was pitching with an injury that required TJ. Even in his down 2010 season, his peripherals were decent, and he had a good track record. I’m not sure Santana would even be that big of an upgrade over Lackey, and factoring in the money this would be a brain dead trade for the Red Sox and an absolute coup for the Mets. I know you guys hate the Red Sox, but try to be objective.
Scott Rolen, first baseman? What?
This. UZR doesn’t rate Rolen highly this year, but there is no way I sign him if he isn’t playing 3B.
I had the same thought. Regardless of his defense, there is no way he is going to hit enough going forward to play 1B.
“the issue is replacing the production [Gonzalez, Crawford, and Becket] provided this year”
Well, I would argue, no. The issue is replacing the production that the Sox expected, prior to this year, they would get from those gentlemen going forward. Their goal isn’t to get back to being just as good as they’ve been in 2012, their goal is to get back to being just as good (or better) than they expected they’d be in 2012.
I think the need to replace the production from Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett assumes full productive years from Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester and Bucholz, and a full season from Middlebrooks, even assuming some regression for Ortiz.
OH MY GOD THEY’RE HAVING A FIRE!!! …sale. OH THE BURNING! IT BURNS ME!
Amaaaaaa -
zing Graaaace
“Would you like to try that again?”
“…mmmm…no.”
Carl Weathers would be proud.
South Coast Boutique! They’re having a firesale?!?
I think I put a little too much emphasis on the fire and enough on the sale…
Crocodile tears! For real fire sales, look no further than what happened every off-season in Montreal. And then we lost our team. :(
What will they look like? They’ll be a mediocre baseball team, that’s what they’ll look like. So will about fifteen or twenty other teams, not one of which has six of the last 16 FG articles written wholly or largely about them.
Honestly, isn’t there anything else to obsess over right now? Some of us come to FanGraphs because it is an alternative to the media obsession with the big-market teams of the east.
Well a pretty large trade did just happen involving this team, so I could be wrong, but I think that is the reason this and other articles have been written about it.
As opposed to the east-coast obsession as I am… this is kinda the biggest wackiest trade since (insert name of bigger, wackier trade).
Well okay trading for Ozzie Guillen may have had a higher wWC+ (weighted Wackiness Created), but in terms of WAR (Wackiness Above Replacement), this is tops.
I would like them to sign Cody Ross and Mike Napoli and see how the kids play out. That’s just me.
I think this idea has a lot of merit. Couple solid bats, but not at the very top of the FA list (ie. not stupid expensive). See what the kids produce. Plenty of payroll available to fill in the gaps later in the season if needed.
Would not blame them if they went after an upper echelon starting pitcher though.
If they replace the production that Becket, Gonzalez and Crawford provided this year, they’ll still be terrible.
And it seems a little silly to assume that Ellsbury will go back to tripling his previous career HR/FB% next year without missing a beat when he has exactly 1 season of more than 10 home runs.
Sure, so Ellsbury’s career totals are looked at but not Lester, Pedroia, Ortiz, etc. The Red Sox had a crazy rash of injuries that had AAAA starting multiple positions for weeks at a time.
Ortiz has been considerably outperforming his career totals and Pedroia is underperforming his career average WAR/600 by roughly half a win. Lester should regress though. And injuries happen every year, having a bad bench isn’t exactly a point in Boston’s favor going forward.
They have no pitching depth and there aren’t any first basemen better than Gonzalez available in FA. Any hope for a good year next year based on the current roster is based on an MVP-type season from Jacoby Ellsbury when in all likelihood last year was his career year.
Lavarnaway could be moved to 1B, depending on whether the decline in power is for real or just the result of the AAA club asking him to focus on improving his catching. But most of the local beat seems to think that they’re going to spend their budget on pitching, with Greinke being the most obvious target.
The Red Sox should go hard after Edwin Jackson. He is young(28), has tremendous stuff, and has pitched in the NL. I would like 3/$26 million.
A rotation of Lester, Jackson, Bucholz, de la Rosa, and a 5th spot of Lackey/Dubront/ Allen Webster. 2 could go to the bullpen. I think they can afford to let Lester walk in 2014 and have add Matt Barnes to form a rotation of gas throwers.
As for 1st, I have no answer. I think later in the year, we could be Xander Boegarts at 3rd and Middlebrooks at 1st until 2014. But perhaps Carlos Pena or Adam Laroche. I know Pena is from the area. Perhaps a trade is needed.
As for OF. I’d love to see Justin Upton in Boston. He is coming off an injury and obviously has insane talent. The Red Sox farm is stacked with 3rd and SS prospects, which Arizona wants. There is a no trade, but the Sox have money to burn.
Perhaps they resign Ross or go after BJ Upton as well.
As long as Ortiz keeps taking those PEDs he started back in 2009 the Sox offense should still be respectable in 2013. If for some reason his supply gets cut off it could be painful having to watch the Sox’s DH struggle to hit 88mph fastballs again.
What do you mean started back in 09? He’s been using since at least ’03.
Now this is funny: a Yankee fan ranking on the Red Sox (or anyone else) over PED’s. Obviously he didn’t notice the 24/7 drug store operating in the Bronx.
No doubt the Red Sox (and nearly everyone else) had their share of cheaters, but the Yankees were in a class by themselves. They not only signed well-known PED users to big-time contracts, they hired the players’ personal pushers as well.
A huge part of the Yankees’ success has been built on the very odd aging patterns of baseball players in the Bronx.
I was making a joke.
But, if you want to be serious, we can talk about the fact that the two key figures in Boston’s resurgence, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, were both fingered in the same report as A-Rod. So one could argue that the only success Boston has had in the past 94 years is a direct result of two cheaters.
Not to mention that the fact that Mitchell could only get McNamee and Radomski to snitch doesn’t mean that they weren’t doing it across baseball.
Or you could just not overreact to a stupid joke…
I see Napoli suggestions, but his low OBP is reason on concern, especially because it is in line with his career. If we knock off 5+ HR from the move from Arlington to Fenway, we are looking at a .235 guy with 25 HR, You could get that from Salty or Lavarnwey at 1st.
Fun Fact:
OBP and AVG are not, in fact, the same thing.
My bad, I forgot which one I am using. Still there should be concern in moving a high power, career high K%, low BA guy from Arlington to Fenway. If his power drops, he loses a lot of his production. Even look at Adrian Gonzalez, he was hitting well and producing , just not for power and that was an issue. Imagine if he was batting .230.
And Napoli has in fact slashed .307/.397/.710 in his career at Fenway.
Admittedly SSS of 73 PAs… but just sayin’… the guy doesn’t seem to be adversely affected by batting in Fenway.
article forgot to mention bobby valentine’s WAR
In this case, Wins Against Replacement.
As someone who hates the yanks, sawks, phillies, and mets, I’d love for them to sign lohse for 5/85, Hamilton for 6/150, and Greinke for 7/120. Although if I’m any gm anywhere, I don’t sign guys over 32 to a 5 year anything.
I feel like they certainly will get Bourne though, who could be another Crawford honestly. Speed guy, very little power, 30.
I feel like Bourn would be B.J. Upton with less power and a slighty better avg in the AL East. But Upton would be cheaper and has more upside.
do you watch much baseball?
I think an excellent comparison for Bourn essentially a younger Juan Pierre. Bourn wants 6 years and $80 million. If I suggested Juan Pierre was worth $14 million a year, It would be laughable. Now if the Red Sox want an elite defender, they are better off using that money to resign Ellsbury in 2014 and trying to lock Upton up on the cheap.
Upton hasall the potential in the world, is younger, and his tools will age better. His only real problem is plate discipline(which he has shown in the past) and a low BABIP.
In other word Bourn may be better, but I’d rather spend less on upside of Upton.
Eh, Pierre has never had Bourn’s patience or power, which is saying something because Bourn doesn’t have much of either.
Patience?
Does the 2.9% difference in BB% make up for the 14.2% difference in K%? Bourn strikes out a lot for a leadoff guy. The power difference is .03 ISO…..
.03 ISO is huge. That’s the difference between Albert Pujols and Ian Desmond this year.
And patient hitters K more because they get deeper into counts than impatient hitters do.
Striking out is perfectly fine when leading off an inning. You can’t make a productive out anyway.
Because there’s no difference in defence between Bourn and Pierre at all, is there? The one thing that the Red Sox probably don’t need is a CF with Ellsbury and potentially Bradley on the way. I’d be very surprised if they were in on Bourn at all.
The Red Sox are on pace for what 75-80 wins?
So they need ~10 wins AND the ~5 WAR lost in trade (and keep in mind you are quoting 3/4 of a season… that’s over 6 WAR for a full season)
You also aren’t considering the replacement value… Sure you need to replace Crawford’s WAR but he wasn’t playing the whole year so his future replacement is replacing his production + the production of the guys who were playing for him during his injury. Same thing with Beckett who missed some starts (AGon missed some time but not much)
Same thing on the internal improvement –while Ellsbury should regress (positively), it’s not just his individual WAR total this year but the enitre WAR total in CF that he will be “replacing” next year. Same thing to a lesser extent with Pedroia who is on pace for 4.4 WAR and his replacements probably weren’t at 0 WAR either – unless you think Pedroia is heading for an 7-8 WAR season, the upgrade via regression/health at that position is probably not all that substantial.
While I agree with the conclusion of the article… looking at this as merely replacing 5 WARand internal upgrades as the rest is a flawed methodology as you have ignore 1/4 of the season in that total and the replacement value the Red Sox got while those players were injured….. I suspect that’s more like 8-9wins (1-2 wins for the rest of the season going forward and 1-2 wins for the replacement production while these guys were on DL, missed starts) for the guys lost (and their fill ins)
The Sox aren’t signing any $20m players, and they aren’t paying Ortiz 18 either. I’ll guess they add one pretty good starter, one pretty good outfielder, and a lower-priced slugger (like Ross this year). Kalish will play a lot if he’s healthy. Saltalamacchia gets traded, if there’s a halfway decent return. The team will be good enough to contend in several other divisions, but not the AL East.
Napoli could be a good deal. Coming off an off year, he’s always been killer in Fenway, he could play first and catch if needed, and he shouldn’t be very expansive. Ross will most likely be resinged to, the other corner of the outfield would involve some sort of a platoon as mentioned.
The real question is what happens with the rotation. It’s been the root of the problem since last September.
Considering that Melancon, Mortenson, and Beato will all be out of options next year, there indeed is not any kind of open bullpen spot. (And you can add SP Steven Wright and RPs Josh Fields, and maybe Michael Olmsted, to the list of potential contributors.)
And they indeed have numerous bench options, but I doubt Sweeney is in the picture next year; I’d move Kalish into that spot.
Ross is such a perfect fit for the park that it’s hard to see them not bringing him back to start 95 games in right (probably platooning with Kalish, playing against LHP on the road and all but the biggest-platoon-split RHP at home).
That leaves three open spots: 1B, LF, and SP. They’ll look to add a solid bat at at least one of the two lineup spots, but it’s possible that they’ll go in-house at the other with Gomez, Sands, Nava (who are also the three main candidates for the last bench spot), or Kalish. They may be hard-pressed to find a SP that you’d rather give innings to than De La Rosa, if he’s healthy.
They may be less active that people think. Recovering their projected 10.5 games of 2nd-order Pyth differential ought to be their biggest priority, and getting and staying healthy is a close second.
I want to do something to blow peoples minds.
2012
Player 1- In 468 PA 58 Runs, 19 HR, 73 RBI, .214 ISO, .361 OBP, .363 wOBA, 3.1 WAR
Player 2- In 394 PA 57 Runs, 19 HR, 64 RBI, .241 ISO, .342 OBP. .363 wOBA 2.8 WAR
Recent Years
Player 2(2009): 604 PA, 72 Runs ,24 HR,90 RBI , .199 ISO, .321 OBP, .342 wOBA
Player 1 (2011): 635 PA, 81 Runs, 23 HR, 85 RBI, .188 ISO, .374 OBP, .358 wOBA
Players 1 is Nick Swisher and Player 2 is Cody Ross. People expect Swisher to get 6/$100. I couldn’t see Cody Ross going for more than 2/$15 million. They are the same age and Cody was playing in AT&T for 2010-2011 which hurt his numbers.
Why don’t you use the same years for each if they are the same age?
Nick Swisher’s 2009 is better than Cody Ross’s 2009
Nick Swisher’s 2010 is better than Cody Ross’s 2010
Nick Swisher’s 2011 is better than Cody Ross’s 2011
Nick Swisher’s 2012 is better than Cody Ross’s 2012
Ross was better than Swisher in 2008, Swisher’s worst year, and had a higher wOBA through just 66 games in 2007, but Swish was better in 2006, the first year Ross managed to break into the Show full time
Above Average Everyday RF/1B >>> Platoon Corner OF
You’re cherry picking numbers. If you look at overall track record, instead of two seasons three years apart, Swisher is a way better bet.
Swisher has produced at least 3 WAR in 6 of the last 7 seasons. Ross has done that only once, with one more likely coming this year. Part of that is a lack of playing time for Ross, sure, but the fact that he’s not that good is much of the reason for the lack of playing time.
The word “that” seems superfluous to your comment, haha
P.S. If you want to do something to blow people’s minds, make it happen! Dreams can come true!
Enough articles about Punto, let move on.
Bring back Punto! Fits right in with d-ouche RedSox fan base.
http://Www.redsoxgraphs.com
Who cares about WAR, OBP, AVG, all of it. Who will fit? Who can help them win? Pitching? Hitters? They had all of that this year, and couldn’t right the ship, so they shipped out their best left-handed bat and some underachievers. Now replace them… It shouldn’t be to hard, Beckett (terrible) Crawford ( Never played )…
How about a trade for joey votto and sign josh hamilton