What Would a White Sox Fire Sale Look Like?
For all the chatter surrounding this year’s trade deadline, we’ve seen a dearth of activity. To date only three transactions of note have crossed the wire: Wilson Betemit to the Tigers, Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers, and Jeff Keppinger to the Giants. Other than that we’ve had a lot of words and no trades. The words you’re reading are no different, in that it’s more trade speculation with no actions guaranteed to follow. But it might be the most entertaining rumor to date. Yesterday ESPN Chicago ran some quotes from White Sox GM Ken Williams, and the implications have transaction hounds licking their chops.
“On one hand, you can look toward potentially adding. We’d have to add creatively because of the financial situation right now. On the other hand, maybe this is the most opportune time to turn over the entire roster and get some young, exciting player in here and go that route.”
And away we go.
Before getting too excited, remember that Williams might have spoken out of frustration, and nothing more. In fact, after spending big this winter — $163 million on Matt Thornton, Alexei Ramirez, Will Ohman, Jesse Crain, Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, and A.J. Pierzynski — it might not actually be the best time to blow up the whole thing. Williams couldn’t do a complete job, anyway, because of of immovable contracts. No one is taking on Dunn right now, for instance, and Konerko is a 10-and-5 player who signed at a discount to stay in Chicago. But we can still have some fun examining the actual movable parts on the roster.
Edwin Jackson. Perhaps no White Sox player has been mentioned as often this month as Jackson, and with good reason. He’s in the final year of his contract, during which he earns $8.35 million, and he will become a free agent after this year. He’s a Scott Boras client, too, which likely means an exit from Chicago following the season, anyway. While he’s likely to net them a draft pick or two, the White Sox could do better to trade him now as a rental and get players closer to the majors. They’re particularly lacking in upper-level starting pitching, and could net a decent project for pitching coach Don Cooper. He won’t fetch as much as some others on the roster, but he’s the most tradable.
John Danks. He’s perhaps the most intriguing name on the White Sox, probably because he’s successful and left-handed. Danks started off the year poorly, but he turned it around pretty quickly and now has a 3.92 ERA and 4.00 FIP after 16 starts and 101 innings. He makes about $2 million for the rest of this season and then enters arbitration for the final time in the off-season. He’d be a wonderful candidate for a team to trade for and then sign to an extension. It might be expensive, but he’d be worth a decent contract. The extra year of service, plus the left-handedness, will render Danks a more expensive proposition for potential suitors, but it’s not as though top-end lefties hit the market very often.
Gavin Floyd. His name has come up as well, but not with any seriousness. That’s probably because he’s in a slightly better position than Danks. While they have the same amount of service, Floyd is locked up for $7 million next year, with a $9.5 million for 2013. He might throw with his right arm, but the bargain of a contract renders him a bit more valuable than Danks. The White Sox clearly can’t trade all of their pitchers, and so it seems that they’d likely hang onto Floyd. He’d be a veteran presence among the crop of rookies taking over in the rotation.
Mark Buehrle. He’s having yet another Mark Buehrle season, which is unsurprising, given that we can tautologically define Mark Buehrle as Mark Buehrle-esque. If he’s traded the acquiring team would in all likelihood receive another Buehrle-esque year in 2012, since a $15 million option kicks in if he’s traded. That might limit his availability to larger markets, but many of them would certainly listen and perhaps cobble together an offer. But as a 10-and-5 player he can veto any trade, and when asked about his future he’s always seemed tentative about leaving. Maybe the Cardinals would be interested, since they’re always mentioned as a potential Buehrle suitor.
Matt Thornton. They just signed him to an extension this winter, but it’s not necessarily a great deal. He’s a guy who relies on his velocity to blow away hitters, and he’s signed through age 38. He’s a lefty reliever and will probably bring back the White Sox considerable value on the market. If they don’t intend to use Chris Sale as a starter, selling Thornton now, when demand is high, might net them a decent return. Let someone else worry when his velocity starts to dip in the years to come.
Will Ohman. Again, lefty relievers will probably bring back a decent bounty, since there are so few available on the market. Ohman is locked up for $2 million next year, too, so he would be valuable to another contender. Perhaps the Sox would like to keep him around as a true LOOGY, though, should they deal Thornton.
A.J. Pierzynski. Sometimes you burn your bridges in some place, and sometimes it comes back to bite you. Or, in this instance, your team. He’s a 5 and 10 player, so he can opt to stay in Chicago, where he seems comfortable. But if he were open to a trade, there is certainly a team out west that could use a catcher. As Eric wrote this morning, there’s no logical replacement for Buster Posey. If the White Sox were to clean house, Pierzynski could make sense. But he might not want to go, and Brian Sabean, who once traded three good players for him, might not welcome him back.
Gordon Beckham. This one is at least a little interesting, because we saw Beckham produce big-time as a 22-year-old in 2009. Problem is that he’s been pretty terrible since then, producing a .301 wOBA (81 wRC+) in 2010 and 2011. But he’s still just 24, and the potential is still there. He seems like a change of scenery candidate, but those types of players don’t typically net a solid trade package. Then again, the way he’s going, it might be best to cash in now, in case things get worse.
Carlos Quentin. While it might be hard to justify trading a hitter as gifted as Quentin, if Williams plans to blow up the roster the time might be right. In yesterday’s Hunter Pence post I listed all the teams that could use a corner outfielder, and Quentin could fill that role as well. He has one more year before reaching free agency, and he likely won’t make as much as Pence next year. If Williams is selling, he’ll likely have the ears or many GMs on Quentin.
Trading two or three of these players is probably all that’s realistic, and it certainly would net the White Sox a quality package of prospects that would help them contend in 2012 and beyond. It certain is fun to imagine the fireworks that would surround a Danks, Jackson, and Quentin trade. But as with most deadline affairs this is almost all for fun. If we take a step further back we can see how little this makes sense.
Despite their mediocre play, the White Sox are just 3.5 games back in the AL Central. The two teams ahead of them have considerably flaws, and could come crashing down at any time. If the Sox get expected performance from some of their guys, they could make a quick run to the top. It doesn’t make sense for a team in that position to blow things up, especially when their expected talent level isn’t quite meeting expectations. Again, even a slight turnaround could vault them into first place.
The other obstacle standing in the way of a fire sale is the immovability of the biggest contracts. Even if the White Sox moved every single player on this list and replaced him with a league minimum player, they would still have $73.75 million committed to eight players next year. While that might not seem bad, especially for a team in the White Sox position, that money would be largely due to injury prone or ineffective players such as Jake Peavy, Alex Rios, and Dunn. That’s not exactly a hugely promising foundation around which to build a team.
Part of why this week is the third-best part of the baseball season — trailing only Opening Week and the postseason — is that we can imagine the possibilities. What if this team got this player? What if that team swung a blockbuster? The neatest question of all is, what if that team had a mid-season fire sale? It’s not likely to happen, especially to a team in Chicago’s position. There are far more reasons to stand pat then to blow it all up. Still, Williams mentioned it, and so we can imagine it. The returns on even three of the above players would be astronomical and could set up the White Sox with a pipeline of young talent for years to come. It’s a dream, and it would quickly turn around what has been a slow deadline period. With apologies to White Sox fans, here’s to hoping Williams acts irrationally.
If you’re blowing up the roster, with the eye on a few years from now, shouldn’t Alexei be on the block as well? League average hitter, terrific fielder, and a cheap contract. Considering the lack of SS options, seems like they could get a fairly decent haul if he was put on the market.
I was thinking about this the other day… I would trade Alexei if the price were right, as I think some teams probably overvalue him.
I guess it depends on who you’re dealing with… The Cardinals for instance, with an already powerful middle of the order, could slip Alexi near the bottom of the order and truly benefit from the solid defense and base running along with adequate power potential. He’s not a feature type player, but certainly a valuable compliment to an already strong lineup.
They should get rid of Jackson and try to bring in a good young starter like Daniel Hudson. Oh, wait…
Exactly….
Funny, Ken Williams didn’t seem to consider the possibility of blowing up the front office.
That one’s not (entirely) his fault; the Nats backed out of a deal at the deadline last year to swap Jackson and Dunn. That’s why he made the Jackson/Hudson swap in the first place.
Of course, why he’d want to trade Hudson at all is beyond me.
Change-of-scenery guys: Gordon Beckham for Dexter Fowler, which team says no?
Sox. Beckham’s been one of the best defensive second baseman in the league this year. Plus I think they want to keep an outfield spot open for Viciedo next year.
If White Sox fans want to ever see Viciedo they need to get rid of Ozzie Guillen. Ozzie would rather run out the corpse of 45 year old Juan Pierre over The Tank.
Beckham’s defense is like icing on an invisible cake. If you look at his hitting development, it’s been alarmingly poor for a “top prospect”. His BB/K ratio has been on a step decline since entering the majors. He has to be an untouchable just because his value as a hitter is so low.
At this point, everyone should be on the block.
They have serious concerns with starting pitching over the next couple years… Their rotation could be completely overturned within that time frame, and the only chance of revival will be within the pieces they acquire. I still believe it was a mistake going all in for the 2010-2011 seasons with an extremely depleted farm system. They should have been more patient with exchanges for future pieces in the hopes of a revival 2 years down the road. I think the White Sox could be heading in the direction of your current Houston Astros if this situation isn’t handled with enough care and a lot of resulting luck.
Either way, they should be a fixture at the bottom of the standings as soon as KC figures things out. A fire sale could look pretty ugly, and make the “White Flag trade” of ’97 pale in comparison.
The interesting thing is that KW could deal a couple of these pieces and still win the division. I shouldn’t be understated how bad the division is this year, and the fact that the Sox are still in it while having SEVERELY sub-par performances from half the roster means that regression from a few players like Dunn, Rios, or Beckham could be more than enough to put them in the lead over the next couple months. If I’m KW, I at least dump Jackson regardless because I have 6 starters now that are pitching very well.
So, the W Sox, might win a weak division, but they might just as easily be laughed out of the playoffs. At this point, I don’t think a little bit of added revenue with a playoff run will help much when it comes to keeping them competitive for next year.
But maybe you’re right… Maybe it’s just best to say “screw it” and go for it, since they are already knee deep, and just accept the future consequences. There might not be much of a difference between getting out of an 18 foot ditch instead the 14 foot ditch they are already in.
their offense might be laughed out of the playoffs, but their pitching wouldn’t be.
Their two guys getting hot away from having one of the better offenses i9n the AL. They’re sucking bad right now but if they actually played to their ability, this team would be a force.
They’re*
MatManz’ point is important. Half the team has sucked for no good reason. Sure, maybe all those guys’ careers just legitimately fell off a cliff, but it’s at least as likely that a couple of them will regress any day now.
Well, time’s running out… You have a few days to decide whether things might balance out to what’s more expected in time for a legitimate playoff run. Do you bet for? or against…
Silly me. Here I am thinking good pitching teams have a decent chance in playoffs. But that NEVER happens.
and, it’s not a matter of having a decent chance… While the Sox have some potential upside offensively, we’re still talking about a team that’s 1 game below .500 approaching August (and has been above .500 for maybe 10 days all season) WITHIN a weaker division. There’s still a lot to ask for even if Dunn and Rios can swing things around.
Even if they get laughed out of the playoffs, making the playoffs still brings in plenty of revenue, from a business standpoint.
You’re still playing a minimum of 3 postseason games, sell plenty of postseason merch, and garnering plenty of TV revenues. It also generally increases season ticket sales for the next year.
In other words, the Sox are too close to a playoff berth to blow up the team. And, Detroit and Cleveland are not particularly “good” teams and are not far superior to the CWS. It’s an open division.
Yeah, fun article but Kenny was just posturing like he always does.
The Giants are as likely to sign Jamie Quirk as they are AJ Pierzynski. That bridge was torched.
I don’t appreciate the sarcasm one bit.
I am a fine candidate for the catching job.
It certainly wouldn’t be Mr. Sabean’s worst transaction.
Kenny went “All In,” and lost a ton in doing so. He has traded a lot of young talent for questionable/expensive vets and has set this team up for further declines as the vets get older and creaky. Yes, he could trade an Edwin Jackson and hope to land another Sergio Santos, but he finds himself in a similar situation to Jim Hendry on the north side which is that if wants to get the best talent in return, he will need to trade guys that he does not want to put on the block at this time.
He will likely do what he has done in the past which is to try to trade guys who dont “make” the clubhouse like Jackson, Thornton and Quentin and try to catch lightning in a bottle with aging vets like he has with Roberto Alomar, Carl Everett and Manny to try to fiegn an attempt to get to the playoffs for ticket holders.
The problem with that is that he will never fully committ to the future because the team is so devoid of farm talent after all his trades (worst talent level in all of MLB?). Doing so would require a very long-term investment which is time he probably does not have.
By this time next year, the result of Kenny going “All In,” will likely create a worst case scenario: the AL version of the Houston Astros.
unless im reading cot’s wrong, i dont think that $15M 2012 automatically kicks in anymore. the way its listed, that clause concluded already.
My guess is that this series vs. DET will influence decisions, for better or worse.
Won game 1 and Dunn just took V deep for an early lead. I’d keep trying to win the division. SFG is a good example of what can happen.
My other guess is that the blowuo of the team will occur with a new GM and manager. I don’t think KW nor Ozzie want to go through rebuilding, and neither guy is mentally equipped to do it. They’re both highly competitive and impatient.
People have been calling for this team to be “blown up” since after the 2007 season, where they finished 72-90.
But, what has complicated the issue is their record following that season:
2008 — 89-74, 1st in division
2009 — 79-83, 3rd in division
2010 — 88-74, 2nd in division
So, basically the team should be blown up in order to be more competitive in the future?
More competitive how? By finishing in the top of the division? They already do that.
IMO, there’s A LOT of risk in blowing up a “winning” team in the hopes that what they get back in return will develop into a “better” team.
IMO, they’d be blowing up the team just to blow it up. Would they really get a bunch of young talent in return? And combine that talent with what young talent they already have?
Houston, the team the CWS beat in the 2005 WS, was able to “blow up their team” due to aging players reaching obvious retirement and the team finishing in the bottom half of the division for multiple years. Houston will be in rebuilding mode for quite some time … likely continually trading decent young players in hopes of getting more in return. In reality, they’ll probably just keep spinning their wheels.
I rarely see evidence of teams being “blown up” and it working out to be a good rebuilding strategy. What DOES work is consistently adding young talent to replace certain players, and meshing young talent with veteran players.
To me, that’s what CWS should try and do … trade a valuable piece for a valuable piece that they can use. For example, trading Jackson or Danks for Rasmus would be a good deal for them.
Dunn, Konerko, TCQ, Ramirez, and the starting staff are worth continuing to build around.
Teams in the Central also do not need to mimic the teams of the East where the perception is that you need an all-star at every other position. They don’t. They are drastically under performing with the bat, and are just 2 games out.
They have 3 starters that are on pace to finish about league average in WAR. There’s no way Dunn and Rios continue to be -1.7 and -1.5 brWAR players. If they revert to career norms, it could result in as many as 3 wins for the remainder of the season. I don’t know what odds either guy has at actually turning it around, but they can’t get much worse.
It’s very easy, and perhaps comforting, to say “blow the team up”, but it’s much more difficult to actually do such a thing, get back good value, and actually improve to a better situation than you’re currently in.
… or Rasmus for StL native, Buehrle. Rasmus for Jackson is a bad deal for StL given the length of the two player’s contracts.
Also, what’s up with Juan Pierre’s UZR? His offense is almost identical to the 2.8 WAR season he put up last year. The difference is that his FRuns went from 12.8 to -8. (Edit: The difference is 5 errors in 2011, 1 error in 2010).
As has been noted elsewhere on the interwebs (I’m looking at you craigws!), a full “blowup” probably isn’t needed. There are perfectly good (or at least league-average) alternatives available to the White Sox in AAA, that would probably float them to parity with the Tigers/Indians. The inability/unwillingness of management to execute these promotions is pretty damning, especially since they seem to be the result of personal tensions between Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen. It’ll be very unfortunate if the White Sox end up in the Astros situation in a couple years because there’s not an adult in charge.
Sam is on to what I posted above. Look, the moves Kenny made for this season improved the team for this year. My point is, what about 2012 and 2013? They basically cheated death with Paul Konerko hitting like he did (better than?) in 2010. What were the odds he was going to do that at age 35? Now what about the odds to do it at age 36 and 37? Even with him, they still can’t seem to get over the hump. 2 steps forward, 2 steps back has been the theme of the season and seasons past. One psychologically damaging game (see Jim Thome’s walkoff last year) sends this team into a spiral.
Circlechange11 – you make a good point about the end result of the product. Good records overall, but those 09-10 teams were very flawed and borrowed alot from the future in order to tread water and finish well out of it. It was the same type of questionable moves the Astros started to make at the tail end of the Killer B’s era that they havent been able to get themselves out from under. It just may be time to pay the piper when it comes to the aftermath of Kenny’s trades draining the farm system coupled with his veteran aquisitions not performing at the level he was hoping they would at the major league level.
IMO, these guys will leave a different manager and GM to “pay the piper” Neither guy is suited to “rebuilding”
I’d love to see Mark Buehrle wind up with the Pirates; I mean, “The Deer Hunter” took place somewhere around Pittsburgh, right? Realistically, I think that Edwin Jackson gets auctioned off to the highest bidder between the Yankees and Red Sox and that everybody else stays.
I’ve read a few people comparing this team to houston, which frankly, is a very lazy comp. The big difference is that chicago can easily support a $120 million payroll. Houston could too but Drayton McClane was always tight with the purse strings. Houston is now talking about slashing down payroll to the lower fifth of the league or so. Houston is looking like the Siberia of MLB, complete with new ownership, possibly a new FO and with the markings of a rebuilding process that may take a decade to complete. The ChiSox situation isn’t nearly as dire. The worst case scenario is that they trade off veteran pieces for the next three or four years until they are out from under the albatross contracts of guys like Rios and Dunn. When you have the ability to sustain the type payroll the Sox can, you can turn things around fairly quickly if you make some smart and lucky personel choices.