What’s Really Available at First for the Pirates

The other day, Buster Olney tweeted that some executives see regression in the Pirates’ immediate future. Projection systems seem to be in agreement, and Dave talked about this very thing as soon as the Pirates were eliminated from last year’s playoffs. Nobody thinks the Pirates are going to go back to being terrible — there’s way too much talent there — but people see them more as fringe contenders than NL Central favorites, and it’s not like they’ve had the most constructive offseason, with the biggest move to date being the loss of A.J. Burnett.

Of course, the offseason isn’t over. The Pirates might still be able to get Burnett re-signed, which would be a significant improvement. They’re another one of those teams in a high-leverage position on the win curve, so any kind of improvement should be pursued. And with that in mind, right now the situation at first base involves Gaby Sanchez and unknown others. You probably know that Gaby Sanchez is a real player, but he’s never done much to draw attention to himself, and he’s not a regular. It seems like the Pirates are ripe for a first-base upgrade. But then, what’s really available to them?

Someone asked me in a chat not long ago to identify a good first baseman the Pirates would be able to acquire. I didn’t have an answer, and it’s not because I was being deliberately unhelpful. Let’s run down the top projected first basemen for 2014, according to Steamer, and note why an acquisition would be unlikely or impossible:

Everyone else is projected for 1.4 WAR or lower than that. Sanchez is one of the guys projected for 1.4 WAR. Not everyone above would be impossible to acquire, but they’d all be stretches. Maybe Morrison would be available, but his projection is also exceedingly optimistic. It’s pretty evident that if the Pirates want to get better at first base, they’re not in position to make a major splash. Anything they’d do would be a more minor transaction.

Now, Sanchez is a guy with a big career platoon split. Even after you regress it, he’s eminently playable against lefties. The Pirates, I’m sure, would love to have an everyday first baseman, but failing that, they could just platoon Sanchez with a left-handed bat. Andrew Lambo is in the system, working out at first base, and the Pirates recently added Chris McGuiness. But what are alternatives on the market?

There was recently a rumor that the Pirates are interested in Kendrys Morales. Morales is a proven good hitter, and he seems to have an almost non-existent market. In the past, he’s been a reasonable defender at first. But lately he’s also primarily been a DH, and he has that draft pick attached on account of the qualifying offer extended to him by Seattle. It’s hard to see the Pirates as an actual fit unless Morales’ price were to dip particularly low. Sanchez, in theory, would be able to give him days off, but Morales still seems like a better fit for a team like the Orioles.

The Pirates have sniffed around Mitch Moreland. Moreland is currently in line to bat quite often for a contending team in Texas, and he owns a career WAR of 2.1 over more than 1,500 plate appearances.

Morrison might be gettable, especially if the Mariners sign Nelson Cruz, but right now he’s in line to bat quite often, and he owns a career WAR of 1.0 over just about 1,500 plate appearances.

Justin Smoak might be gettable, especially if the Mariners sign Nelson Cruz, but right now he’s in line to bat quite often, and he owns a career WAR of -0.1 over almost 2,000 plate appearances.

The Mets have been dangling Ike Davis all offseason long. They weren’t able to find a match with the Brewers, because the Mets wanted more value than Milwaukee was willing to give up. Davis has been a below-average player since the start of 2011, and it’s meaningful that the Mets are so prepared to ship him off and give time to Lucas Duda.

Mike Carp isn’t in line for a lot of playing time in Boston, and rumors from a few months ago indicated that the Pirates expressed interest. Several teams, however, expressed interest, and the Red Sox reportedly wanted quite a bit in return. Carp is coming off a strong offensive season boosted by a .385 BABIP.

Somewhat interestingly, the Astros recently designated Brett Wallace for assignment. He’s 27 and he bats left-handed, and while he owns a negative career WAR, he’s also been slightly above-average against righties and especially so the last three years. Last season in Triple-A he posted a .952 OPS and he’s readily available at this very minute. He’s interesting, in large part because he wouldn’t cost talent in return.

But here’s the bigger point: there’s not a ton out there. There certainly aren’t many sure things, and while the Pirates could use this year’s version of last year’s Mike Carp, the Red Sox might want too much, and this year’s Carp isn’t likely to be as good as last year’s Carp. There’s no one worth giving up significant value for. And a guy the Pirates already have is more than a little interesting.

Andrew Lambo hasn’t played much first base, but he’s been working at it over the winter. The goal is for him to simply become passable, and then there’s real upside in his bat. We can skip over Lambo’s whole history. He’s 25 years old and left-handed. Last year he hit well in Double-A, then he posted the very highest isolated slugging percentage in Triple-A. His combined line was .282/.347/.574, and while his game basically comes down to power, he has a lot of it, and it can make up for a lot of deficiencies.

Yeah, he strikes out quite a bit. His contact rate in Triple-A was 0.8 standard deviations below the mean. But he’s not a free swinger — his swing rate in Triple-A was 0.6 standard deviations below the mean. He does have a sense of the strike zone, and when he hits the ball he hits the ball hard. The Pirates, in theory, would be able to protect Lambo from facing too many tough southpaws. If the Pirates are looking for a 2014 version of 2013 Mike Carp, they might already have it. When considering any acquisition, they have to wonder: is this new guy better than Andrew Lambo would be?

The Pirates don’t need to commit themselves to Sanchez and Lambo right away. Lambo doesn’t have to make the opening-day roster, so the team could put him in Triple-A to see if he can sustain his improvements, at the plate and in the field. But Lambo is sufficiently interesting and sufficiently talented that the Pirates shouldn’t need to give up much value for a part-time lefty bat. There’s only so much to be gained, and it isn’t hard to see how Lambo could hit for enough power to offset his various shortcomings. Maybe I’m too positive about a guy who hasn’t proven a thing outside of the high minors. But sometimes lower-budget teams have to take chances, and if the Pirates can’t find something for cheap, they seem to already be in position to go cheap.




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


91 Responses to “What’s Really Available at First for the Pirates”

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  1. jruby says:

    We here in Philadelphia always want to help out our cross-state friends, so we’ll go ahead and give them Ryan Howard for free!

    Anything to help out.

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  2. Jordy says:

    You just can’t go explaining this concept to Pirates fans using logic…
    This makes too much sense!

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    • Ira says:

      Re: Chris Davis. Can he really be a franchise player if he isn’t signed long term? The Orioles have admitted that negotiations have been difficult. On some level it makes sense for the Pirates to offer a prospect package for him, though I doubt it will happen.

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    • Pirates Hurdles says:

      Don’t confuse the sports radio talking heads with “Pirates fans”. Honestly the guys they have on 93.7 The Fan know nothing about baseball rules, player value, contracts, or just about anything else. This morning in the span of 5 minutes they said that Morales is looking for $5 million a year, the Bucs did not trade a pick for Gaby, MLB got rid of the competitive balance picks, Ike Davis was characterized as a veteran who only hits when his team is out of contention, and took a shot at “Saber people and their WAR”. Good Lord, these people are paid to talk about baseball on the flagship station for Pirate games!

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  3. I know the Cards are not going to give anyone away to a division rival, but wouldn’t an outfield of Holliday, Bourjos/Jay, Taveras make sense by the end of 2014? That would leave one of Adams/Craig available to trade, if they thought they were getting value back in return.

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    • Ivan_Grushenko says:

      Cards also don’t need anything and want to win now. They’d have to fleece whomever they traded with to bother. I guess from a pure value standpoint the Pirates have enough minor league depth to make a fair offer, but the Cards probably wouldn’t bite.

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      • Preston says:

        And if a need arises, there will be a market outside of their own division to trade one of Craig/Adams too. Neither is going to the Pirates.

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  4. Being That Guy says:

    You forgot Miguel Cabrera in your list of 2014 first basemen!

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  5. Jim says:

    I’ve been of the opinion that the Mariners just have to get a decent corner outfielder(or even a decent center fielder and use Ackley and Saunders in the corners) and then move Hart to DH, making one of Morrison or Smoak expendable.

    I’d prefer to trade Logan Morrison for Jeff Locke straight up, or include a non-40 man roster prospect with upside(who’s ranked in the #12-#16 range) along with Morrison. The Pirates get a platoon partner who has MLB playing time to go along with Gaby Sanchez, and the M’s get a decent #3 or #4 starter and a lefty to boot.

    Solves both teams problems, really. ;)

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  6. Ned says:

    We’re using potential contender pretty loosely to describe Hart and Lomo :)

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  7. Matthew Murphy says:

    Morales would be a decent fit for them but I don’t see the Pirates giving up their draft pick unless his cost came way down. One of the most sensible trade candidates might be Matt Adams, given that the Cards have Craig to play first and are going to have a crowded outfield once Taveras joins the club. However, don’t see them trading a young, cheap player to a division rival.

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    • Matthew Murphy says:

      Note to self: always refresh the page before commenting if it’s been open for a few mintes while you read it.

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    • Jordy says:

      No way the Cards part with Adams. He’s young, cheap, and he’s hit at every level he’s played at along the way. He might not ever turn into a superstar, but he’s extremely useful/valuable. Even if they were to deal him, you could put your next paycheck on the fact that they wouldn’t deal him in the division.

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  8. LaLoosh says:

    I’m sure the Mets would retreat a bit from their Nick Kingham demands but I gather that they do have some trouble figuring out how to value Ike. Clearly the Mets are viewing it as a guy who’d get the majority of starts at 1B for a contending team who’s got 3 yrs of control while the Bucs are likely to play down the value in that. I can see Alderson’s point in not giving Ike up for scraps.

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  9. cc80rm84 says:

    Smoak for Tabata? Tabata going to be expendable with Polanco on the horizon and the money is comparable.

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    • LaLoosh says:

      can Tabata play CF?

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      • dan says:

        Tabata can fake it (CF). His defense has inexplicably declined the last few seasons but he’s still very young. He would appear to have enough bat (esp OBP skills) to be a starter on some team but he is expendable given the Pirates treasure chest (ha!) of outfield talent. he is also signed to a very team friendly contract. Were I a rebuilding GM I would for sure be asking on Tabata

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      • maguro says:

        No. No, he cannot.

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    • Ivan_Grushenko says:

      But Smoak kinda sucks, no?

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      • dan says:

        yes and no. He doesn’t ‘suck’ defensively and doesn’t suck against RHP. He would actually be a great fit for the Bucs IMO. He should cost next to nothing from the M’s though because as their roster stands right now it seems they have 3 1B

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        • Ivan_Grushenko says:

          Yes unless they’re serious about Morrison as an OF

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        • paul ab says:

          That didnt bother them last year.

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        • ankle explosion hr celebration says:

          while that might be a problem for a rational GM, it seems to be a desired objective for Jack Z.

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        • Nathaniel Dawson says:

          Ivan, I think they’re serious about playing both Morrison and Hart in the outfield this season. Not that they’re both going to be playing there at the same time that much, but I’m pretty sure that both are going to see a good amount of time in the outfield, unless they trade one of them (or Smoak) away.

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        • Nathaniel Dawson says:

          And of course, they can’t trade Hart until June 15 anyway.

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        • Topher says:

          M’s are NOT trading Hart and will NOT put LoMO in the OF. He will either play 1B or DH or be traded. Jack Z is looking to make trade for C OF er.

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        • Westside guy says:

          As Jack Z seyz – “we only have three first basemen? That’s not gonna fill an outfield! Get Cruz’s agent on the phone, now!”

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  10. B N says:

    Ike Davis or possibly Wallace seem like pretty reasonable platoon partners. However, Ike is out if the Mets want non-platoon talent and Wallace could easily be a bust. However, there is potential value in either of them due to the splits value alone. Last I checked, there are more righty pitchers than lefties…

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    • LaLoosh says:

      “… out if the Mets want non-platoon talent…” Huh?! Why would the Mets take back a prospect who didn’t have ML regular ceiling (not saying a top 50 or 100 prospect but a projectable prospect nonetheless) for a guy a contending team was looking to plug in to start 120 games and hit 25 HRs for the next 3 seasons? Seems that based on where the Bucs are on the win curve, that spot would be pretty valuable to them.

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      • B N says:

        I think I may have not stated that quite clearly. What I was stating was that the Pirates may not want to pay a full-time player price for Ike Davis, when they expect to use him in a platoon. Not that you could only get platoon players for Ike Davis. Quite the contrary, Davis, in either role, still commands enough value to get one or two guys who project to be on MLB rosters (where one of those two is a middle reliever, probably).

        By comparison, Jed Lowrie, with better overall offense at a more premium position fetched one quality* reliever. While that was likely an underpay (Lowrie was probably worth a shade more), it isn’t miles off. And Lowrie had potential as a full-time player at a premium position, with his main knock being health. Lowrie can hit both lefties and righties also.

        However, are you honestly deluded enough to think that anyone expects that you can “plug in” Davis for 25 HR over 120 games for 3 years? First, if you take his current history, he’s only averaged 18 HR/120 games. So you’re projecting a 35% jump in power, plus excellent health. You’re also talking about a guy who appears to decidedly be a platoon player: .269 wOBA and 67 wRC+ are not livable numbers for a first baseman, but they are his career numbers against lefties.

        Davis is a platoon-quality 1B on a contending team. There is value in that. But if the Mets want a lot more than that, I don’t think they’re going to get it.

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        • LaLoosh says:

          not following your Lowrie point. What does this have to do with the topic? FTR, Lowrie was traded for Chris Carter, Brad Peacock and Max Stassi.

          Never said that Ike wasn’t a platoon player. We all recognize that. Still he should be good for 6 or more cheap wins to the Bucs over the next 3 yrs. That’s a lot of plus value. The Pirates can roll the dice with Lambo or McGuiness and may get lucky with either. And I doubt the Red Sox are going to give Carp away for less than the Mets are seeking for Ike.

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    • wobatus says:

      I seem to recall that when they were both college teammates and the draft was coming up many most thought Wallace to be a far better hitter than Ike but it hasn’t really played out that way. I still think Ike could turn into a good platoon bat.

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  11. walt526 says:

    I don’t know that I’d consider Belt to be a “developing franchise player” (and I’m a Giants fan). He’s 26, so a step forward to superstardom might be possible in 2014 (although highly unlikely), but his career trajectory is turning out to be a solid regular at 1B and may even possibly enjoy a handful of All-Star caliber seasons during the peak that he’s just entering. He’s a great player to have (especially during his pre-FA years), but Will Clark he is not.

    If the Rangers bring back Cruz (or sign Morales, but why give up a draft pick?), then they’d have Moreland to deal. A Moreland/Sanchez platoon seems like the best possible solution for the Pirates given the market.

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    • Boris Chinchilla says:

      Do Giants fans expect too much of Belt? Maybe if he played 81 games in Denver and he’d look like Helton

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      • EricR says:

        Giants fans expect Belt to be putting up 1999 MLB 1B numbers. The common narrative is that he changed his grip last July and put up a killer August/September, finally figuring out how to hit major league pitching. Which of course ignores his career 125 wRC+, showing that he’s actually been pretty damn good at hitting major league pitching. He put up a 4 WAR season last year and most articles written by Giants media say things like “Hopefully Belt will continue to make improvements in 2014, or they may have to look for other options”, because there are many 3-4 WAR 1B options out there right now.

        I fully expect him to lose time to Michael Morse this year, because Bochy.

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  12. Ivan_Grushenko says:

    Brett Wallace seems to be a “no-brainer” and he’s not going to find a situation where he’d a better shot anywhere else. Daric Barton is most likely available almost freely. David Cooper is probably pretty cheap to acquire unless Santana is really a 3B and Swisher moves to OF.

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    • LaLoosh says:

      Wallace sucks. That’s not a target for a contending team. OMG.

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    • LaLoosh says:

      They may as well go with Lambo or McGuiness then.

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    • B N says:

      If they can get him for nothing significant, Wallace makes a lot of sense as a scratch-ticket. But he’s just not a lock to be worth much. First, he hits lefties so poorly lately you have to lift him at almost any key point in late innings when they can throw a lefty at him.

      Second, his numbers against righties, while solid, have not always been THAT much better than Gaby Sanchez (who is only slightly below average against them). If he’s cheap enough, Wallace can definitely provide a little bump. But you can’t pay too much without using resources that might have given better gains elsewhere.

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  13. Costello says:

    I thought What was playing second.

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  14. Ruki Motomiya says:

    Mike Carp seems like an excellent player for them. He’s been pretty good in a decently large sample size against righties, with a reasonable BABIP and combined with Gaby Sanchez you can platoon 1B to get some nice value. He’s probably not seen as too important to his team, so he is more likely to be open. And he is cheap to boot.

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  15. Kyle says:

    Casey Kotchman?

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  16. kevin says:

    Adam Lind and Gaby Sanchez are made for each other, no? I could see Lind being available with the Jays then jumping in on Morales and not having to sacrifice a 1st rounder for him.

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    • dan says:

      +1. This is the one that makes almost too much sense for both sides. TBJ can replace Lind DH spot + money with Morales who is legit good hitter but can’t play D. Lind is not nearly as good against LHP but that’s where Gaby comes into play.

      problem is TBJ allegedly asked for Neil Walker which would be a huge overpay.

      They should bring down their price and this deal should happen. Jeff Locke would make sense since they’re also in “win now” mode and need SP help. Seems they also need bullpen help if Tony Watson, Mark Melancon, or Justin Wilson is what they want.

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      • Kevin says:

        Locke wouldn’t be nearly enough I don’t think. He offers little improvement if any over guys like Happ, Redmond, Rogers, Hutchison, Stroman. Jays are up to their eyeballs in SP depth right now, what they need are legit mid- or top-rotation arms, help at 2B, and maybe a veteran OF for the bench who can spell Cabrera occasionally and allow Pillar and Gose to continue to work on their hitting in AAA.

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      • Jason B says:

        Doesn’t make a lot of sense for TOR to sign a DH and then trade the perfectly good DH they already have if they can’t get a decent 2B or SP back, though. One can see why they would ask for Walker.

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    • LaLoosh says:

      I said the same thing earlier this winter. But if you were the Jays you’d be more focused on signing a SP (prob Ubaldo or Burnett) than signing Morales when they already have Lind DHing.

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    • Ruki Motomiya says:

      Mike Carp would also be good if Lind is too pricy or not available.

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  17. Tommy says:

    Kyle Blanks would be an excellent fit for the Pirates.

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  18. potcircle says:

    Paul Konerko or Michael Cuddyer, possibly?

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    • Park Chan ho's Beard says:

      Konerko’s old and not good, and Cuddyer has some sort of deafness problem that makes it difficult for him to play in the infield, and has expressed this to the Rockies org.

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    • Billy says:

      Geez, what are you smoking? Those are more right-handed hitters.

      Oh… right.

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  19. GilaMonster says:

    I thought Hart made a ton of the sense of the Pirates. Some risk. Big offensive upside. Probably not huge liability at 1st….unlike he would be in the outfield.

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  20. Nooner McNoonerson says:

    Brett Wallace, former top prospect and the key piece of the Matt Holliday deal, was cut to make room for Jerome Williams. Teams would do well to consider this, especially in this off-season where teams are actively not signing players that will make their respective team better due to the loss of a draft pick.

    I’m not saying teams should say “screw it” and just throw draft picks out the window, but it seems like teams are significantly overvaluing those draft picks. I understand they are important, but the fact is that most of the players are going to be busts.

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  21. bucko says:

    Will someone send this article to Joe Sheehan? He yammers constantly on the freely available talent to play first base, and I have seen him asked him a couple of times in various forums, “Like who?”. He just ignores the question and keeps ripping on the teams with less than a 2 WAR player at first.

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    • Travis L says:

      Hmm, that’s an interesting perspective. I get Sheehan’s newsletter and read most of his stuff, and I can’t say I would represent him like this at all. Do you have some specific examples you can point to?

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  22. Yan Fucking Gomes says:

    “Chris Davis” “franchise player” lololololol

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  23. You make a great point; there are no available first basemen that you could confidently expect to post the numbers of a good starter. I don’t see why this means they can’t find someone to transition to first, though. You mentioned Lambo, which is an example of just that. I know you said that you only listed guys that Steamer projected at 1B, but it just seems a little odd to say that because Steamer doesn’t see any, means there can’t be any.

    For example, Billy Butler has been on the block (apparently). Matt Joyce is projected (Steamer) for 1.5 WAR in 450 PA’s with poor fielding. Daniel Nava seems like as good an option as any.

    Anyways, I enjoyed this article, Mr. Sullivan.

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  24. shthar says:

    Derrick Robinson is still available.

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  25. Three Definitions of Leader says:

    Excellent article. It’ll be interesting to see if the Bucs make move.

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  26. MrKnowNothing says:

    Morales makes sense. Sure, they don’t WANT to give up a draft pick but they’re also at a stage where doing so isn’t terrible. They won’t have a super high pick anyways.

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    • Joshua_C says:

      I think the issue with Morales to Pittsburgh is that it’s not clear if he’s physically capable of playing 1B for 120-140 games, even with Sanchez serving as a defensive replacement. That, combined with his probable high asking price and the attached draft pick, make me think that Morales in Pittsburgh is a nonstarter.

      They’ve collected a few uninspiring options as alternatives to Lambo, and as a Pittsburgh fan I have to say I’ll be more than a bit disappointed if we’re content to go into next season with the sum result of our offseason being the conversion of A.J. Burnett into Edinson Volquez.

      Maybe Jaff Decker can play some first? I’m skeptical of Lambo given the huge K rate. Loney would have been nice, or even LoMo. I just don’t want to see Travis Ishikawa manning the large end of a platoon for us in a putative season of contention.

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  27. Slag Dump says:

    Not quite sure why so many have given up on Locke. Personally, I expect him to be in the starting rotation when the Bucs break camp (assuming they don’t sign A.J.) Let’s not forget the guy was an all-star last year, and I believe he just ran out of gas in the 2nd half of his rookie year. He might begin to tire again in the 2nd half of this year, but he should be able to help hold the fort down until the young gun reinforcements are brought up in July.

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  28. Johnny Appleswag says:

    I think the article puts it best. Lambo gets his shot but signing Brett Wallace makes a whole lot of sense. You go into ST and see where they stand and then think about making a deal. Wallace also fits the mold of a Huntington sign. He’s always gambled on past prized prospects and been willing to give those types of guys second chances.

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  29. Spa City says:

    Considering that Alvarez is mediocre defensively at 3B, Walker is mediocre defensively at 2B and Mercer is mediocre defensively at SS, the Pirates should be open to acquiring a shortstop or 2Bman and shifting pedro to 1B and Walker to 3B. The Mariners should be open to trading Nick Franklin or Dustin Ackley, both of whom would be relatively cheap in terms of salary and prospects. The DBacks may be open to trading Gregorious or Owens, and the Rockies might be willing to trade Josh Rutledge for a reasonable return. The pool of available players is much larger if the Bucs are open to shifting defensively-challenged players to easier positions.

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