When To Stop Making Excuses For Mike Minor
There are issues with Mike Minor on the mound. He has allowed far too many home runs this year, eight in eight starts, and his BABIP once again is astronomically higher than league average. His current BABIP of .336 is getting laughed at by the league average .288 mark, and his career BABIP of .353 is nowhere near the league average during that span of .290.
At this point, it is easy for some to conclude that Minor is rather hittable. He seems like a classic control but not command guy, as his 2.93 K/BB rate this season — which matches his career rate — shows that he can throw strikes at a high rate but not strikes of the highest quality. He has still started just 31 games and thrown 170.1 innings, so it is likely too early to say he will always be a pitcher with a high BABIP, despite the fact that the number has been high in each of his three stints in the majors.
Even with the possibility that Minor is rather hittable, he is not nearly as bad as his ERA suggests. Currently, only Chris Volstad and Tim Lincecum have bigger spreads between their ERA and FIP, and his xFIP of 3.81 is around the league average. A pitcher with Minor’s talents should be shooting for better than league average production, so it is absolutely true that he has not pitched very well, but his season has not nearly been as ugly as one would immediately assume.
Lincecum’s season to date actually has many similarities to Minor’s, as both possess decent to good strikeout-to-walk rates, very high BABIP’s, and both sit near the bottom of the league in left on base percentage. The left on base rate is an interesting note, as Minor really had no issues in this department last year, when he started fifteen games with a 4.14 ERA and 3.39 FIP. This year, the mark has dropped to 52.7%, with Lincecum’s at 60.4%. This number, for both pitchers, pretty much has nowhere to go but up. Lincecum is obviously the superior pitcher, and his home run allowed rate has allowed his FIP to be drastically lower than Minor’s, but it does appear like the luck factor has swung against both of these starters thus far.
As the folks at Talking Chop point out, there is a possibility that Minor is simply struggling with his mechanics in the stretch. As they note, his line with the bases empty is .226/.282/.339 against .422/.461/.766 with men on, which could certainly indicate that he is just having issues in the stretch. I am not quite sure whether now is a significant enough sample size to say that is true, but it is something to consider. Those issues in the stretch could be a reason why his left on base rate is so low, and why he has been so susceptible to the big inning rather than allowing a run or two across a number of innings in each start. Last year, Minor did not share these issues, as his line with the bases empty was .345/.399/.554 against .216/.291/.316 with men on. To me, this looks like a small sample against a small sample, and one that will eventually even out over the course of a season.
It is true that at some point the excuses need to stop for Minor. His SIERA, FIP, and xFIP say he should be a pitcher with a roughly 3.65-3.75 ERA for his career, but his 5.39 ERA says he should be battling for a rotation spot or in the minors. The Braves are apparently sticking with him, but if he continues to allow six runs per start as he has done in each of his past four starts they will call up Julio Teheran or Jair Jurrjens, or maybe move Kris Medlen to the rotation.
Even though there will be a time to stop making excuses, that time is not now. His career home run rate is not abnormally high, his strikeout rate is above 20% and his walk rate is under 8%, and the velocity on his pitches is still solid. A bigger sample is needed before Minor is deemed an ineffective starter, and judging by his peripherals, that will not be the conclusion.
Well written, didn’t know his line was that drastic between men on and bass empty. I heard talk (amongst the moving picture orators) last night, that he is not mixing in enough of his above average changeups.
Bass empty, obviously referring to when their are no fish on the base***
He’s had nights where he looks really good, but he gets utterly punished for any pitch left up. He had great stuff against St. Louis and still ended up giving up six runs. Against Pittsburgh, the umpire seemed to have a smaller strike zone that day, and he still managed nine strikeouts against three walks in 6.1 innings. I can’t diagnose what’s been wrong with him in starts like that, where he’s looked very good overall and still given up a load of runs.
Last night was different. He couldn’t locate his off-speed stuff. It was obvious watching it, and he said as much afterward. He tried to mix in more off-speed pitches the second time through the line-up because everyone had already seen his fastball, and he kept leaving change-ups and curveballs in the dirt. He wasn’t able to put them where he wanted, so he had nothing but his fastball. He tried to be too fine with it, tried to find ways to just survive 5 innings with only one pitch, but he really didn’t have his best stuff. Sometimes, pitchers will just come out and find that they aren’t at their best on any given day, and last night was one of those for Minor.
But for the rest of the season, he really has appeared to be unlucky.
Given the difference in Minor’s slash line with runners on base as opposed to with no one on, it would seem reasonable to conclude that he may be having trouble from the stretch. However, there’s another possible explanation. He may also be having a confidence problem. I’ve been struck by the kinds of remarks he’s made after these games. For example, according to the AJC’s Mark Bradley, “After Wednesday’s game he said he let down his teammates, the organization and the fans. He said he didn’t want the other Braves looking at him wondering if this start was going to be as bad as last week’s, didn’t want them thinking they’d have to score a lot of runs to win — which had happened both at Colorado and St. Louis — just because Minor is pitching.”
That sounds like someone who’s wondering if he’s good enough, which isn’t what you want from a pitcher. You want him to display a confidence in his abilities, and to talk about what he needs to be doing to address his pitching deficiencies.
All he needs is a slump-buster, Mark Grace style, and his confidence will rise, which will obviously translate to on field success. Anyone have a sister they can set him up with?
These SABRheads and their mother’s basement are just computers. Small sample size? More like small penis size!
Didn’t he say something about being traded in the offseason?
I know this is fangraphs and lol @ emotions but maybe he isn’t as strong mentally. He felt pressure from the competition at SP in the offseason and, in a roundabout way, talked about being traded. The guy above pointed out some things he’s said. Maybe it is a confidence problem.
I hope he gets better, he has pretty good stuff.
He mentioned something right before spring training about the abundance of MLB arms for the Braves and that it might be in the best interest of both parties to be traded. I don’t think it was as much “I want out of Atlanta,” as it was “I have a lot of competition and I could be more valuable to another team.” He certainly had a point, but I believed then (and I still believe now) that he is most valuable with Atlanta. He should be comformtable in this organization and is strong enough for a rotation spot, even with all of the good arms they have.
I’m not saying he dislikes Atlanta. If he is saying that he might be more valuable though, doesn’t that kind of imply that he feels he isn’t good enough? Like “we have 7 guys who can pitch, I’m not better than most of them, so just trade me”. I’m probably looking too far into it though.
He never said anything like that.
Since when does a 24-year-old SP need excuses for a rough start? That in and of itself could be spun as an excuse, but it’s a fact and it’s one Braves fans have to deal with. Keep in mind when he was drafted with a laughably high pick, it was partially because they were confident a mechanics tweak would justify the pick (the other reason so we didn’t have to pay a snot-nosed high school kid an insane bonus or risk losing him back into the pool). He turned into a legitimate power pitching prospect overnight. Have we at least earned enough credibility with that to take another stab at it?
The closest I can get to any excuse is that he has every right to be pressing. He just watched a 2.90/1.20 3rd starter in 2011 get jettisoned to AAA in April 2012, and he knows Teheran, Delgado and Medlen are all looking for their chance to swipe his spot in the rotation. If the aforementioned Jurrjens can regain his lost velocity he’s coming back no matter what Minor does.
Trust me, very few Braves fans are willing to listen to or offer him a crutch when he quite obviously is aiming the ball, with his fastball having about as much movement on it as a glacier in a tar pit. Compared to the rest of the rotation he’s a black hole. The Braves have already made the prospecting community look foolish in regards to Minor. What’s that phrase again, about ‘fooling me once…then twice’? This time, I’m proceeding with caution.
Delgado is already in the rotation. Teheran is not exactly setting the world on fire with a 5.10 FIP down in AAA, and Medlen would have to be taken out of the bullpen (which has looked mortal this year) and stretched out in the minors to be available as a starter.
Unless the Braves feel like tossing Livan “Rubber Arm” Hernandez out there, Minor is going to have his chance to prove himself.
I understand all that, but Delgado is in because Hudson started out DL’d and remained there because of JJ’s struggles. Add to that his Mercker-esque stamina and Medlen’s long relief/starting ability and you still get Minor desperately playing for his MLB life. He can’t count on Teheran’s boredom to continue, but he certainly can bet his last dollar that Gilmartin’s ETA is moving up every minute. Both are relevant. In a game that already taxes the psyche to its very limits, this spells trouble for a guy who knows he’s good enough to pitch in any rotation but is simply not doing it. That’s the irony; he knows how good he is yet he doesn’t trust his tough. If he continues to be too scared of MLB hitters, it’s curtains.
Doesn’t trust his “tough”?? I forgot my brain cell medicine today.
Its true he struggles.. and runners on base may be a factor. A bigger factor might be he is a reverse leftie. I don’t know if the command/control is a factor, but against teams with predominantly RHB (look at last start vs Milwaukee) he’s a good pitcher… mix in a few lefties (vs NYM) his control disappears. Interesting article, thank you
Giambi has a “slump busting” thong that Minor could borrow.
Minor’s xFIP is 3.80, so none of this is really his fault.
O, so it’s all bad luck on defense and his BABIP? I’ve watched his starts, the runs scored off his non BB/K/HRs are drilled. His last start he gave up several deep flyball outs that he was lucky weren’t home runs.
25% line drive %, and he gives up more flyballs than groundballs. True his HR/FB ratio is probably high, but let’s not kid ourselves. He’s good for a while, then he gets in trouble and everything is hit hard, even his outs.
tERA of 5.27, which I think is a better descriptor because it includes more. Sorry for the 3 straight posts, forgot to put this in the second one.
Lighten up dude and feel the irony.
It’s time for the Reds to quit treating Homer Bailey like a baby—-also Chapman as a starter not baby-sitting him as a reliever.