Which Active Players Are Going To Cooperstown?
Yesterday, we talked about Alan Trammell‘s case for Hall of Fame induction, and if you’ve been surfing the baseball newspapers lately, you’re probably come across arguments for or against most of the other bubble candidates on this year’s ballot. While there’s certainly value in discussing the credentials of guys Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker, we’ve also been having those conversations for several years now, and the facts haven’t changed since the last time we reviewed their candidacy. So, today, I want to turn my Cooperstown-related focus to the guys that are still playing.
Given what we know today, which active players are going to end in the Hall of Fame? And which ones should, but look unlikely to get the necessary support? Is anyone currently playing likely to get inducted that doesn’t actually deserve it? Let’s take a look at the current crop of players and where they’re likely to end up, at least with what we know at the moment.
No-brainer, first ballot, let’s not even bother arguing.
Albert Pujols (+87.8 WAR), Chipper Jones (+87.5 WAR), Derek Jeter (+74.4 WAR), Ivan Rodriguez (+73.4 WAR), Mariano Rivera (+39.0 WAR/+54.6 WPA).
Really, if you don’t think any of these guys belong, you’re a super-small Hall guy and there are only about 10 people in your personal HOF. That’s fine, I guess, but I don’t think that’s the standard most people want to see enforced. Each of these are among the very best to ever play the game at their position.
Would be a no-brainer, but STEROIDS!!!!
Alex Rodriguez (+112.5 WAR).
A-Rod gets his own category. You could maybe put Manny Ramirez (+69.6 WAR) here too, but calling him active is a bit of a stretch, and I’m not sure he’d have gotten in easily even without the PED suspensions. His defense and “Manny Being Manny” stuff would have been held against him by a decent sized block of voters. He probably would have gotten in, but I wouldn’t say he belongs in the no-brainer category.
Should be in, but might have to fight off some sticklers
Jim Thome (+71.5 WAR), Roy Halladay (+69.8 WAR), Vladimir Guerrero (+60.0 WAR).
In my view, all three of these guys have done enough to merit induction, though I’m probably out on a limb a bit on Guerrero. Thome’s bat was good enough to make up for minimal defensive value throughout his career, and Halladay is the best pitcher of his time. I don’t know that either would be a first ballot guy if they retired today, but they should both end up in Cooperstown, and Halladay has enough time left to make his induction an easy call.
Guerrero’s clearly the borderline case here, but since I’m a peak-value guy, I put a little less importance on the fact that he aged pretty quickly. For an eight year stretch, Guerrero was an absolute monster, and one of the elite players in the sport. His decline phase has been pretty hard to watch, but I’m more okay with that than most. If you really value career length, he’s likely a no, but I’d vote for Guerrero.
Has had a HOF peak, but needs a little more longevity to convince everyone.
Carlos Beltran (+61.7 WAR), Lance Berkman (+59.9 WAR), CC Sabathia (+57.0 WAR), Ichiro Suzuki (+53.0 WAR), Chase Utley (+50.6 WAR).
There’s going to be a lot of mixed feelings on these guys, I suspect. Beltran’s been underrated for most of his career and doesn’t have any milestone numbers, and the injury problems during his prime might make him the new Larry Walker. Berkman’s produced at a HOF level at the plate, but he played during the era when power hitting exploded, and will be judged against an elevated standard. Sabathia is young enough that he’s probably going to end up being an easy call, but right now, he’s basically had Bret Saberhagen‘s career. As for Utley, he just arrived in the majors too late, and while he was great when on the field, it looks like he just won’t have a long enough career to get inducted.
Ichiro’s the most divisive case here, though. If you give him credit for his time in Japan, you may not have a hard time giving him a vote. If you don’t, then he’s a short career guy whose value was tied pretty heavily to defense in a corner position. That said, he’s at nearly 2,500 hits in the Major Leagues alone, and if he has anything left in the tank, he’ll probably get to 3,000. I’m sure there will be a decent sized pushback against him as a no-power/no-walk right fielder, but at this point, I think he’s getting in. A few more good years could even push him into first ballot territory.
If you buy into the value of defense, he’s in. If you don’t, he’s probably not.
Scott Rolen (+73.9 WAR), Andruw Jones (+71.7 WAR), Adrian Beltre (+56.1 WAR).
We’ve talked about the cases for Rolen and Jones before, and in the end, the argument essentially boils down to how much faith you put in how accurately defensive metrics quantify the value of an elite fielder. Everyone agrees that these guys were actually great with the glove, but not everyone buys into defense being as valuable as defensive stats suggest. Historically, Jones has a better chance of election than Rolen does, but I think both should be in, even if they retired today.
Beltre could also have gone in the “more longevity” category – he fits in both spots, honestly. However, even with a good end to his career, he’s going to need voters to give him a lot of credit for his glove, because the bat is just above average, not historically great. He’s got age on his side, however, since he came up early and has a chance to get in on the milestone numbers. If he ages well and gets near 3,000 hits – with his defense getting him some extra consideration – I think he’s in. He’ll be a lightning-rod candidate, though.
Nice career, but not quite.
Bobby Abreu (+62.6 WAR), Roy Oswalt (+50.2 WAR), Tim Hudson (+49.0 WAR), Jamie Moyer (+49.0 WAR), Omar Vizquel (+48.1 WAR), Johnny Damon (+46.0 WAR)
Abreu’s strongest case is going to be matching his numbers up against Guerrero’s, since they had very similar careers. However, he specialized in things that voters don’t generally value as highly, and given that he doesn’t look like he’s got much left, I don’t think he’ll get close enough to any milestones to garner strong consideration. Oswalt and Hudson could theoretically go in the “more longevity” category, but neither looks like they’re going to have enough left to push themselves into a strong position. They’re both shorter career guys without really amazing peaks. Moyer and Vizquel are basically the opposite of that, having had long careers but never being a truly great player – both will probably get some support for getting near milestone numbers, but I can’t see either actually getting elected.
I included Damon only because some people were talking about his candidacy in September, but no, just no. His only leg to stand on is comparing himself to Ichiro (lots of hits, ignore everything else!), but he’s just a poor man’s version of that skillset, and he wasn’t kept out of MLB due to forces beyond his control. If he hangs on long enough to get 3,000 hits, he’ll get some votes, but I think most people realize that he was never an elite player, and I can’t see him getting in, even if he hits that milestone.
Off to a good start – keep it up and we’ll talk.
Johan Santana (+46.2 WAR), Miguel Cabrera (+43.7 WAR), David Wright (+39.3 WAR), Joe Mauer (+35.7 WAR), Jose Reyes (+33.4 WAR), Felix Hernandez (+32.7 WAR), Justin Verlander (+32.4 WAR), Hanley Ramirez (+31.1 WAR), Tim Lincecum (+27.9 WAR), Evan Longoria (+26.9 WAR), Ryan Braun (+25.8 WAR), Brian McCann (+25.1 WAR), Troy Tulowitzki (+24.5 WAR), Prince Fielder (+23.4 WAR), Joey Votto (+22.8 WAR).
This group of mostly young guys (and Santana, who likely needs a strong comeback and a few more good years to meet most people’s longevity requirements) have all performed at HOF levels, but just haven’t been around long enough to have had a sustained Cooperstown-worthy peak just yet. They all have the potential to end up in the Hall, but injury and unexpected decline will likely weed out a good chunk of these guys.
Overall, if the sport closed it’s doors today and we had to make our decisions based on performance up to this point, I’d say there’s probably something like 10 Hall of Famers currently playing the sport. Everyone’s group might be a little different, but depending on how high your personal standard is, there’s something like 5-15 legitimate candidates, and then another 15 who have shown HOF potential.
Going through this, I was surprised just how few pitchers there are who look like they’ll get in. After Halladay and Rivera, the drop-off is pretty extreme. It looks like we’re headed for a pretty decent stretch of time where Cooperstown only welcomes position players, because the pickings on the pitching side are kind of slim at the moment.
Update: As pointed out by multiple commenters, Todd Helton belongs in this discussion, but I’d slot him into the “close but not quite” category. Like Abreu, he specialized in walks and doubles, and voters aren’t going to take kindly to that skillset from a guy who spent his career in Colorado. I just don’t see him getting a lot of support, especially since the bar for first baseman during his era is going to be really high.
Dave,
Why do you think the lack of pitchers is present? Is it because the field has moved a lot closer to the elite in recent years? Or is it because the majority of the top tier pitchers at this point in time are a lot of guys who have been in the league/at that level for less than five years? Or do you think there is something else that I am missing?
Thanks,
Cody
Injuries seem to be the main culprit. Santana would have been an easy call had he stayed healthy, and a lot of the best arms of the last decade blew out their arms pretty early.
I hate to give such a generic answer, but I think it is just a cyclical thing. For all the talk of the “era of offense” 25 year stretch from (roughly) 1985 to 2010 or so, probably saw more elite pitchers than any other in the games history and that is reflected in glut of pitchers who will be coming up for inductions in the next few years (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Johnson, Smoltz, Pedro, Schilling, Mussina and Hoffman).
As such, it’s not all the surprising that we would see a drop in number of top pitchers, especially since the decreased run scoring we have seen over the past few years has made it more difficult for individual pitchers to stand out.
Ryan Zimmerman belongs in the last category. He’s entering his age 27 season (a year younger than Braun) with 30.2 WAR. If he is healthy and the Nats contend in 2012-13, he’ll be in the MVP discussion.
A huge portion of that value is defense, though. He’s basically the new Adrian Beltre. He’s going to need a few monster offensive years to really throw his hat in the ring.
And how is that really different from Longoria? Besides, who’s to say statistical analysis won’t improve by the time they get on ballots?
Marc – was thinking the same thing… Over the last 3 years Longo has a marginally better wRC+ than Zim (136 vs 132) yet one is portrayed as an overall package (Longo) and the other more of a defense heavy guy (Zim). They also have equivalent wOBA’s over the last 3 years
I wonder if Longo’s contract colors the analysis a bit.
Agree with Cameron – Don’t see Zimmerman getting in…too much of his value is tied up in defense, which voters don’t value unless a player had many, many golden gloves – Zimm only has one. Media is too ignorant for Zimm to get in, which is a shame.
yeah dude there’s absolutely no shot voters will improve their views in two decades
Cliff Lee?
Just don’t think his peak is going to be long enough. He’s had four great years, but unless he can keep this up for another 3-4, I don’t see him as a guy who will get enough support.
Lee has 36.8 WAR and he’ll be 33 going into next season, so if you squint you can see it. I think he missed too much time early in his career and his counting numbers won’t add up unless he has a really strong back end of his career. He’s only at 119 wins and if he doesn’t make it to 200, I don’t think enough traditional HOF voters will consider him. Lost seasons in ’06 and ’07 may have sealed it.
It’s curious that we keep referring to “traditional HOF voters” as a reason a lot of guys will or will not get the nod. In the case of Ryan Zimmerman, won’t the “traditional HOF voters” be an entirely different group by the time Zimmerman becomes eligible? We don’t believe the BBWA be decidedly more ‘modern’ by that point?
JDanger,
This comments section inspired the same thought in me earlier. In 12-15 years when Lee is up for the ballot, the voting population should be decidedly less traditionally inclined. Even the traditionalist look at some “advanced” numbers now.
Bill James has been writing about the Hall of Fame for 30 years, and we’re still arguing about Jack Morris. I don’t think the change is going to happen as quickly as you might think.
Dave, I’ll bet you ten bucks Zimmerman gets in.
Deal. The nice thing about this bet is that by the time it’s settled, $10 will be enough to get one of us a candy bar.
sucker!
JDanger,
I see what you did there.
One guy who I think is absent from this list who will obviously get consideration is Todd Helton. The Coors Field factor is there, just like with Larry Walker, but I imagine he’ll at least be on the ballot for a few years when he’s finally nominated.
Are you taking his induction as a given? Mid-60′s WAR hitter from COL in that era is going to have a difficult case. His peak only lasted 5-6 years, which puts him close to Palmeiro territory.
Oh no I’m not taking it as a given. Just that I think he’ll get 5% of the vote at least for a few years when he’s nominated with those numbers. I’m not sure whether I think he should be in, but he’s definitely a debatable case.
Home: .354/.451./.620, 120 OPS+
Away: .291/.391/.478, 80 OPS+
I don’t see it at all
@ReRe – The OPS+ numbers you’re citing are relative to Todd Helton’s personal career OPS+, not the league OPS+. He’s not a 120 at home and 80 on the road – it’s more like 150 at home and 110 on the road.
Not saying he should be in, but that .391 road OBP in more than 4000 plate appearances is still really, really good.
.391/.478 isn’t really that bed, esp. since Coors wasn’t a road field for him. Probably more like 120 OPS+. Yet of course the counting stats are where most of the action is, and he doesn’t have them.
@Ian R. Thanks, didn’t realize that. I still don’t think he’s got enough based on counting stats and Coors bias, but thanks for the info.
WAR is park neutral. Accumulating 60 WAR playing half your games in Coors is just as hard as accumulating 60 WAR playing half your games in Petco. Not sure if that was the point you were trying to make when you said “Mid-60s WAR hitter from COL,” but just thought I’d clear that up since just above me there’s a guy who didn’t know what tOPS+ was and somehow came to the conclusion that a guy with a .970 OPS could have a 100 OPS+. I mean Coors is Coors, but it’s not THAT Coorsy.
Kyle,
You’re right about the WAR, but I suspect Coors will be held against Helton quite a bit.
Maybe I’m projecting the opinions of the general public onto writers who can see through that. Or maybe I’m not.
Yeah, I should have included him in the “nice but not quite” category. He’s basically the first base version of Abreu, specializing in walks and doubles, and voters will hold his home park against him. If they aren’t putting Walker in, they’re not putting Helton in.
I don’t think it’s fair to call Helton a walks and doubles guy. He didn’t walked more than he struck out with a career ISO over .200. That’s a rare specimen in modern baseball.
I still consider him a “close-but-not-quite” guy, but “walks and doubles” doesn’t seem to do him justice.
Could Helton benefit from the fact that he is Rockies’ only franchise player, and the Rockies don’t have any other Hall of Famers? In other words, he’s easily the most important player to that team in its history, so might he get a bonus because of that significance? Pujols may be a better player than Helton, but he was playing on Musial’s team, whereas Helton is playing on Helton’s team.
If that’s how a voter would go about deciding who is worthy of the hall, well, that sucks. He should be in the Rockies’ hall of fame because of that, not the baseball hall of fame.
It’s probably worth noting that Helton also specializes in this little-known stat called “batting average”. He’s a career .323 hitter. I’m not an expert in this stat, but I think .323 is in the range experienced commentators would term “pretty good”.
Todd Helton? Monster peak, injuries, counting stats not quite there, but .421 career OBP. Interesting case. No mention?
It’s the same problem for Edgar Martinez, actually. Difference is Helton may have the Coors stigma but not the dreaded DH stigma.
Cliff Lee could sneak into the pitching conversation. He would need to average 6 WAR over his age 33-36 seasons, which is probably a stretch and then put up a couple more solid seasons to boot. That’s unlikely, but it’s a long way from impossible.
Of course, that would be a pretty remarkable career given his fairly middling production during his early peak years.
Lee has had interesting good luck/bad luck. For 3 seasons from ’04-’06, Lee won 46 games while averaging a 98 ERA+. Then from ’09-’11, Lee won 43 games while averaging a 142 ERA+. However, another few ’08 seasons (22 wins, 168 ERA+) would certainly propel right back into the discussion.
Not saying he is a HOFer but Todd Helton deserves a really good look. Coors field or not, a .323/.421/.550 line, .411 wOBA, 135 wRC+, with over 3600 times on base, nearly 1000 XBH, and great defense is pretty solid.
Omar had 14 home runs once…
Pedroia?
He has a very good chance, but like Ryan Zimmerman, it’s really too early to discuss.
Agreed. Just thought he might belong in the “nice start” category.
Likewise Cano (note I am a Sox fan).
Miguel Tejada’s combo of PED use and ethnicity has created a black hole in the minds of baseball fans, and timid sportswriters with HOF votes waiting for somone to make the first move: The career numbers are there by a mile already.
I am not saying he should be in, but why in heck wouldn’t Miggy make a list like this?
By Fangraphs’ measures, Tejada isn’t anywhere close to Hall worthy.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=941&position=SS
Career WAR isn’t close and his (only) 3 year peak was modest. Some voters will look past his poor defense, but not many.
Then there’s the various make up issues in his case – specifically PEDs and age.
Not sure what career numbers you’re looking at, but +44 WAR from a guy liked to PEDS – he has no shot. And really, his peak was only five years, and not that great to begin with. Besides his HR total, he doesn’t really have much of a case.
Brad and Dave nailed the numbers bit, but why are you bringing his ethnicity into this conversation? Being a modern day MLB fan while harboring ill will toward Dominicans would seemingly create a lot of cognitive dissonance.
davisnc:
Why pretend voters of any type are angels? Haven’t you read a lot of jerky opinions over the years from HOF voters?
Not really looking to get into this too much, but the other side of the coin is the Ryan Braun apologists who want to hang onto the idea that he is innocent – ‘because he has good wiring.’
I’m not saying anyone is an angel, nor am I one of those people claiming that we live in a post-racial society. I just look at the Dominicans already in the HOF, the ones who will be going, and the vitriol leveled at McGwire and Clemens, and think that race doesn’t have much to do with Tejada’s HOF case. Even if he had videotape of every minute of his life that proved he never did steroids or took a drink of alcohol, and was nice to the elderly and downtrodden, he wasn’t a good enough baseball player to go to the Hall of Fame.
Marichal is the only Dominican HOFer currently. But you get my point.
Hi davisnc:
Thanks your reply. Not onboard with your pointing to McGwire and Clemens as proof of race irrelevance in the sport vs. PED question. Do agree that both players are very controversial HOF candidates.
Clemens especially will pay the price for his own shenanigans vs. Congress. Plus, romance/affair/whatever with underage girl?
McGwire at one time seemed to have held the favor to enter the HOF as a Sandy Koufax type candidate, light on the career production numbers but good enough, but he doesn’t have it any more.
His TV interview where he denied any effect of PEDs on his career. Icky – and Peter Gammons came out immediately to state he would not make the HOF. That was a big signal to the other writers, and nobody’s gonna champion McGwire again until…
Bonds gets in. Ta Da!
Bonds will make his speech on the same day La Russa does.
And Barry will be given entry on the basis that he was ‘good enough before,’ which is whatever it is – the HOF voters are eventually gonna give this consideration to Bonds. Will he be the only one? I doubt it. So then, where does Miggy stand among the rest? Not even worth talking about?
And I guess really my point is, that for whatever reason, the career of Miguel Tejada is considered to be less valid and more about PED enchanced performance than pretty much all the others – otherwise people simply would be taking more note of Miggy’s career production stats, even within the era.
Of course, Bonds isn’t a great comparison to use because Barry’s stats are so out there, but what about all the other guys past Bonds that might be HOF worthy? Miggy is/was an average player, but he was just really a lot better at taking roids than all the rest?
==
Just for fun, the silly argument that Miggy is ‘just not good enough’ can be applied to anyone. You brought up Clemens so I guess that means you think he might be worthy of the HOF. Rocket’s career is pretty strong, but you can see the two careers in the stat profile. If Rocket hadn’t squandered his image, he seemed to have the ‘good enough before thing going for his HOF candidacy, too. But his ‘first career’ stats are very borderline, and he had a terrible reputation in big games. I vote no. :-)
I don’t believe any of these really big PED names all started out together in 1998. They were probably trying what they could before, too. McGwire obviously was. Yet, the HOF entry is gonna be based on the two-careers evaluation, starting with Barry bonds’ induction based on his ‘clean’ stats.
Carreer Runs:
Mark McGwire – 1167
Miguel Tejada – 1215
Career RBIs:
Mark McGwire – 1414
Miguel Tejada – 1282
Tejada has a greater PED-endowed reputation because of his association with the wildest PED franchise, and because of his relatively speedy decline. I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to think of him like Jason Giambi, a superior player in pretty much every category who nobody seems to mind not making this list.
I suspect eventually we’ll get over all this PED judgmental nonsense, but probably not until most of these guys have fallen off the ballot and have to be put in by some embarrassing special committee.
Miguel Tejada:
Sorry, people – no one was ever elected to the HOF based on something called WAR. Just ask Jeff Bagwell who will have a hard time getting in because of his unsexy career numbers, despite his modern-type stat appeal.
For Miggy, compare the power and production numbers of all other shortstops and you start to notice how high he is on all the lists for home runs, rbi’s et cetera. He’s a career number standout.
He has an MVP award.
Bill James 100 point sytem for entry has Miggy well above his classmates at like 140 points.
It is not a mark against a player of his impoverished background to lie about his age. It’s not.
And to say he only had a 5-year peak is shading the question – he was better longer than this, and he was an outstanding defender at his peak as well.
Ps. Predicting Ichiro to be a 1st ballot HOFer – no one has played the speed game like him. He is unique.
You forgot all his steroid stuff. Hard to get in with that stuff. Pusge, A-rod, likely more have that baggage.
WAR rewards people who play a long time and power hitters. For 20 years I’d rather have Vizquel on my team than Thome but Thome has sexy stats so WAR geeks think Thome is HoF.
Me, I see Ichiro and Vlad as locks, not just great stats but how they played the game, the dedication, enthusiasm, grace, impact. All career long other teams had to plan for those guys, unlike most of the players on the list. Not the best WAR but WAR is a stat for superficial fans.
DSC:
Thank you – I am not here to make a big PED post, but it’s ‘clear’ to me that other recent HOFers who are not suspects, really should be.
As far as PEDS and the HOF – voters are gonna put Bonds in, and then what happens next? Only Bonds from this generation?
I like how you say WAR rewards power hitters on a post written by the same person who once argues that Nyjer Morgan was more valuable as Adam Dunn.
WAR is not a stat for superficial fans. It is not perfect but it helps.
DSC, do you know what “superficial” means? And why do you continually lurk around FanGraphs when it’s clear you don’t enjoy the type of baseball analysis offered here?
If you read many of the conversations that take place on FanGraphs, you know that everyone here acknowledges that WAR is imperfect, but is the best single number we have to measure the impact a player has on the field. It’s the only stat available that is all-inclusive: Hitting, Fielding, and Baserunning distilled into one number for the sake of comparison. If you don’t like it, fine, but why don’t you go take a look at the all-time WAR leaderboard and try to argue that it’s not correlated very, very strongly with actual baseball performance?
Calling people geeks and dismissing an analytic tool developed by people smarter than you or I doesn’t serve any purpose. WAR is not “superficial” just by virtue of your disliking it. It’s the product of a lot of thought by a lot of people who are serious about baseball.
Traditional thought and sabermetrics should complement each other. You won’t find many here who will say teams don’t need scouts. Read Mike Newman’s Prospect pieces to see that projectability and first-hand impressions are very much part of the analysis here. If you don’t like sabermetrics, that’s fine. It just seems to me that you should go elsewhere for your baseball analysis if that’s the case.
I think this is the first time I have ever heard a person refer to Miguel Tejada as an “outstanding defender.” During his peak years (99-2006), his fielding% among qualified shortstops (18) was 13th and his total zone rating was 16th. If you want to go by UZR he was 16th.
Hi Drew:
Regarding Tejada’s defensive abilities – the 2002 MVP voting results clearly suggest Tejada’s defense was considered a big positive in his game. Other players had better stats.
Gold Glove Award consideration, much like all-star consideration, whether Tejada ever merited it or not, was not available to him because of the other SS’s like Vizquel, A-Rod and Jeter.
If it is ever fair to say Jeter somehow got more than his share of Gold Glove and All-Star votes year after year than others, it is equally fair to say guys like Tejada miss out on the recogniton sometimes.
Your stats cited about Miggy’s D take him through his age 32 year. You might have gone easier there, even talking HOF consideration – I have no idea whether the numbers look any better if you stop looking for his defensive peak somewhere before age 32, but he was better younger – everyone agrees on this, I think.
Thanks reply!
Miguel Tejada’s defense has always been subpar to awful. My eyez saw it!
I have to wonder if Tejada played third and Adrian Beltre played short if their Hall of Fame candidacies discussed here would be inverted.
Given that a HR is the single most impactful play in a baseball game, of course WAR is tilted towards men who excel in this area.
“and ethnicity”
Wut?
While his worthiness may still be in debate, I think it’s safe to say Ichiro is off the bubble given his legend and impact.
Yeah, I think being the first Japanese super star counts for something. It’s not the same because he color barrier was even bigger, but if Jackie Robinson had gotten injured and been a mediocre player, I would still think of him as special player worthy of the Hall. Ichiro has a similar merit of a different magnitude.
He’s also got awards and records. I think if he gets to 3k hits, it’s a no brainer.
I was kind of shocked to see him put in the second tier — to me, Ichiro is a bigger no brainer than Ivan Rodriguez or Chipper Jones (actually, I think Jones might take a few years to get in; much like a guy like Jeff Bagwell, he was great, but never really noticed or appreciated by anybody).
Call me a heathen, but the single-season hits record is, to me, the most hallowed record in baseball. It’s the reason I kept arguing George Sisler as a top 25 all time player long past the point I had any logical support for the argument.
Putting that aside, Ichiro is the most exciting position player since Rickey Henderson. As a baseball fan, I always made sure to get tickets whenever the Mariners were in town, just so I could see Ichiro — something that I’ve never done for any other player ever. I can’t imagine a person who’d vote no for Ichiro in the Hall.
Ivan Rodriguez is too high, Ichiro is too low.
There is far more steroids suspicion around Ivan Rodriguez than Jeff Bagwell, and he’s not getting in on the first ballot.
Ichiro, on the other hand: 10 straight seasons of 200 hits (more 200 hit seasons than Ty Cobb), single season hits record, .326 BA, good chance to get 3000 hits, understood that his career was unnaturally shortened by JPL time, THE iconic Japanese player. More than enough tangibles & intangibles for inclusion.
I’d always sort of thought Ichiro was a given too….
I agree on Ichiro. I think it will take a couple ballots for people to sort out what they think about his years in Japan, but his host of spectacle quality statistics and his unassailable work ethic should allow for a straight forward induction.
Agree on Ichiro. And its not just a matter of giving him credit for his time in Japan. He’s one of the most unique, entertaining, and improbable players in baseball history. He’s part of the history of the game too, as he was the first Japanese position player in MLB, and the first player to come over via the posting system.
Yeah, I think the fact that he was the first Japanese position player is something that will really help him. Personally, I think if he retired tomorrow he’d be voted in. And that is without giving him any credit for his time in Japan.
There has been way too much steroid suspicion surrounding Ivan Rodriguez. He’s definitely not a first ballot, no-brainer guy. I would say that the best comparison for how things might turn out for Ivan would be how things play out for Mike Piazza. Both have been implicated in the steroid scandal but never proven to have taken. Both have 65+ career WAR. Both were respected throughout the league and considered leaders. If Piazza gets in, Ivan has a shot. But, race will play into it too. So we’ll see. Regardless, he’s not a first ballot guy.
I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone say anything negative about Ivan Rodriguez, ever.
I’ll start – Ivan ROdriguez, given his transformation into a muscle-bound slugger, and then subsequent transformation into a skinnier guy once testing started, plus the teams he was on, has as much circumstantial evidence of steroid use of anyone. He’s at least as suspect as Sosa, for instance. And I hear he used to call fastballs just to try and keep guys from stealing.
There, now you’ve heard people say bad things about him.
he was on the texas rangers in the late 90′s for goodness sake – enough said.
Pudge is third all time in catcher WAR. He’s the kind of guy you can only really keep out if you have proof that he used.
I agree that Pudge gets in; I disagree with your conclusion that he is a “no doubt, 1st ballot HOF”. I put him and Ichiro in your Thome/Halladay category. Should get in, but it might not happen on ballot one (for completely intangible reasons in Pudge’s case).
Based on merit, Pudge Rodriguez indisputably belongs. Enough people are positive he was a steroid user, even without any evidence, that I’m certain he’s going to linger on the ballot for a long time before he gets in.
Ivan Rodriguez followed up an MVP season where he hit .332 with 35HR and 25SB with a season that would have crushed his MVP season statistically his year 2000 was shaping up to be amazing, on July 24 he was hitting .347 with 27 HR and a .425 wOBA when he had his thumb broken by Mo Vaughn’s bat. his 4.8 WAR in 91 games broke his streak of 3 consecutive 6 WAR seasons.
When I hear people like Bob Costas say “When in doubt, keep him out” I have my doubts that the voters will just vote him in.
I disagree. The Hall of Fame is a court of public opinion, and the circumstantial evidence against him is abundant. His “only God knows” response to a question about whether he ever used steroids is right on par with Sammy Sosa’s “no hablo ingles” schtick.
Interesting list. Of those in the “Off to a good start” category, it’s hard to see how Miguel Cabrera doesn’t make it–he’s still only what, 28? I think King Felix is a pretty solid bet.
It breaks my heart as a Twins fan to know Santana’s probably going to stagnate there.
Imagine Cabrera’s peak ends today because a chronic injury crops up. It happens. As recently as two years ago I was saying Utley was a shoo-in for the Hall.
If Cabrera ends up with a borderline case, his DUI’s will drag him down.
Cabrera is just now entering his prime and is remarkably durable, I don’t see how he finishes his career not a hall of famer. Also, he will probably end up bring the marquee member of the very exclusive “non disastrous 100+mm contract club”
Miguel Cabrera is a very good player, but it’s pretty easy to see how he finishes his career not in the hall of fame. Remarkably durable players become remarkably injured players all the time. Happens to stars and scrubs alike.
Plus he’s an alcoholic. That has to figure into the “not a shoo-in” debate. (I’m rooting for the guy, but it’s a fact that can’t be ignored)
And mig.cabrera has lots of time on his side. Began his his season at age 20…
Alcohol didn’t stop Mantle from getting in and it won’t stop Miggy
Rollins?
44 WAR to date. A chunk of that is defense but he has an MVP, WS ring, and plenty of time to accumulate some more counting stats.
I wouldn’t bet on it but he’s got a decent shot at getting to 55+ WAR. If he can nab a few more WS rings he can bring in the “intangible” votes that seem to crop up in every HOF voting.
That’s WAR based on defensive adjustment.
A couple things jumped out at me.
First, Pudge should be in the A-Rod category.
Second, it surprises me that Utley has more career WAR than Miggy. I understand how the ststs came out to 50 vs. 43 career WAR when I stop to think about their respective defensive positions and Miggy’s role as a traffic cone on defense, but it doesn’t pass an internal bs test. Miggy has been an offensive beast for 8 years, and Utley had a prime of five years.
My tiny brain can’t wrap itself around why those five years of Utley would be worth 9 of Miggy.
UZR considers Utley to be an ultra-elite defender – 92.7 runs above average. That’s without positional adjustment. He’s also been 25 runs above average on the bases.
Other measures of Utley’s defense are less generous, but the baserunning seems to be all real.
In any case, that is A LOT of runs for Cabrera’s bat to make up for, hence the result.
I understand why the gap is there. My point, although poorly stated, is that Cabrera’s career seems significantly more valuable than Utley’s and Cabrera’s insane offensive impact seems undervalued. I understand baserunning and defense make a large, objectively palpable component of player worth, but in my tiny head, it does not make Utley more valuable. If Utley keeps an OPS+ of 140 for five more years, he may be in the hall discussion. If Cabrera avoids DUIs and bacon cheeseburgers for the next five years, he will likely be shoe-in for the Hall.
Great article. I love comparing great players. Everyone’s subjectivity for valuing stats and quantifying what their eyes see produces interesting discourse. I can not wait for March.
“I understand baserunning and defense make a large, objectively palpable component of player worth, but in my tiny head, it does not make Utley more valuable. ”
First, do you accept UZR and BsR as reasonably accurate measures over a large period of time? Even with quite a bit of fudge factor?
In other words, do you accept that Utley’s defense+baserunning is about 118 runs above average and that Cabrera’s is about 54 runs below average, give or take? That’s a 172 run spread BEFORE positional adjustment (that’s another 70 runs). Plus/minus say 20 or so runs?
Second, do you accept that a run is a run is a run? Doesn’t matter if it comes hitting, fielding, or running over catchers, it’s the same value?
The answers to those questions are probably pretty much “yes”. You may have certain reservations but let’s call it close enough. Now Cabrera has been about 140 runs better with the bat over his career than Utley. Which is less than 240 (UZR+BsR+pos.adj). (The replacement adjustment adds about 3.5 wins to Cabrera).
Now, both players have had 9 year careers, with Cabrera actually getting more playing time early on and recently. So I have trouble seeing what you are arguing. Your concluding thought about Cabrera being a shoo-in seems more related to age than on-field value.
I don’t agree that a run is a run is a run. Let me explain.
I believe UZR and BsR accurately values players’ comparative value for defense and baserunning, respectively (or are at least one of the best available ways of ranking players in these categories). However, the link of these values to runs is not something I equate equally with offensive runs, which are easier to value. So, no, I do not agree that an offensive run (or part thereof) is a defensive run is a baserunning run. When these values are concededly less-than-perfect, adding and subtracting them as equals is not exact science, and I suspect players like Utley get an undeserved bump while players like Cabrera get slashed in value.
think of what position they play
Utley plays elite 2B defense, Miggy plays 1B. That should pretty much explain it when it comes to fangraphs WAR.
Miggy was not an offensive beast for 8 years. He only had 3 5+ WAR win seasons, 2 of which he had positive defensive numbers. He hit homers but his peak wRC+ is 130, which he did twice. Now that’s good but his peak simply wasn’t high enough nor long enough to justify inclusion into the Hall. And he has fewer career WAR than Tony Fernandez.
Tejada’s career batting runs above replacement is 105.7. Utley’s is 216. Utley has been much better than Tejada. Utley’s career wRC+ is 132, higher than Tejada’s best season. It’s just not close when trying to compare the two.
Oops, sorry. Wrong Miggy.
I was sure you were talking about Tejada when you called him a “traffic cone on defense.” How strange is it that both Miggy Tejada and Miggy Cabrera have 43 WAR for their careers? The difference between Utley and Cabrera, besides quality of defense, is positional. That’s a huge difference.
Have to agree with jcj5y – Gotta put Zimmerman in that last group.
If this is who “will” end up in the Hall, Vizquel and Damon have a shot, Migwayside in peak/longevity category, and Ichiro is in.
Also, Bautista needs to be mentioned somewhere.
Bautista can be “the man without a reasonable comp”. As of now, baseball reference lists Josh Willingham and Jay Buhner as his two best comps. Pretty sure they never had consecutive seasons of 164 and 181 OPS+, though.
How many MVP type years would Bautista need to put together though? At least 3-4 more like the last two, plus a long decline phase where he was still useful (2-4 WAR seasons for 4-5 years). He’s only at 14-17 WAR right now (bbref and here)- I see him having a Roger Maris type career, except everything is pushed back 5-6 years of age. Best case is MVP level four more times, let’s call that 28 WAR. Then 5 years of tail off/injuries to age 40 – give him 15 more WAR. So being extremely optimistic, I could put him at 57-60 WAR. No chance at all, unless he exceeds the projection of 4 more MVP type seasons and 5 useful years after that (3 WAR each).
So yeah, I think Roger Maris’s career is more realistic. Without the HR records, of course.
I wouldn’t put money on it happening, but then again I wouldn’t be comfortable betting against it either. Bautista could be a really interesting conversation around 2025.
The problem with Bautista is that he is at 16.5 WAR at the age of 31. Seems the the HOF places an emphasis on longevity and consistent quality over short lived excellence.
For Bautista to even reach Vlad level of around 60 WAR he would need to average 5 WAR/yr over the next 9 years…not impossible but not likely.
It’s very possible if you believe he’s going to keep up elite production for another three years, looking like this:
2012-2014: 8 WAR per
2015-2018: 4 WAR per
2019-2020: 2 WAR per
That’s 44 WAR, an average of 4.9 WAR over the next nine years, and will give him 60.5 for a career, which is pretty much the longevity minimum. I think he gets in with that.
I’m too lazy to look it up, but I think you’re projecting Bautista for one of the greatest 5-year stretches (2010-2014) in baseball history.
List of players who had multiple +8 WAR seasons between ages 31 and 33: Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, Honus Wagner, Jackie Robinson, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Willie Stargell.
Projecting Bautista to do it three years in a row is perhaps the most optimistic expectation you could have for anything occurring in the history of time.
Projecting Bautista to have a historically great 5-year stretch isn’t THAT outlandish when he’s already done with years 1 and 2 of the stretch. It’s admittedly unlikely, but not absurdly so.
@ Ian R. –
You’re counting 2010 in saying he’s done it two years in a row. Even in 2010, he was “only” a 6.8 win player. Projecting 8+ wins 3 more years is bold, to say the least. He’d be an MVP-type player if he has 6 win seasons each of the next 3 seasons and that would leave him 6 wins short of bluejays49′s projection.
I have a feeling Chipper will be a 2nd ballot HOF’er.
Only if the first ballot gets lost in a computer crash.
Dave — no Matt Holliday (39.7 fWAR)? He seems to be coming down off of his true peak, but he’s still producing at a high level.
He’s probably a long shot at this point, but I’d be curious to know if you think he belongs In the “not quite” or “keep it up” category. Thanks!
“He seems to be coming down off of his true peak”
Uhhh really?
OPS+ 2010: 149
OPS+ 2011: 153 (career best)
His best OPS+ in Colorado was 150 in 2007, the year he probably should’ve won the MVP.
Oh, and over that two-year span only Ryan Braun and Josh Hamilton have more fWAR among left fielders, and Hamilton benefits from playing some center field. (Fourth place is Brett Gardner, who benefits a TON from defense and also plays some CF.)
You could make the case that Matt Holliday has been the second-best, or even best, left fielder in baseball over the last 2-3 seasons. Yet you and a number of other people seem to think he needs to rebound from something in 2012.
Why is there this completely, blatantly false perception that Matt Holliday is on the decline?
Even though he’s on the wrong side of 30, I’d put him in the “keep it up” category. If he continues to hit as well over the rest of his contract (five more seasons) as he has before, he’ll get into the conversation–especially since Busch Stadium generally favors pitchers. Guys who consistently post an OPS+ of around 150 should have a shot.
I think that might have been an allusion to his ability to stay healthy and on the field, not to his OPS+
Holliday’s injuries this year were pretty freaky, not the sort that lead to chronic DL visits. He’ll probably be fine for a few more years at least. Barring further visits from Mothra or regrowing his appendix, anyway.
Matt Holliday definitely needs to be on this list. He gets overlooked because he plays on the same team as Pujols, but he is a HOF caliber player. The injuries from last year were appendicitis, moth in the ear, and a weight-lifting injury so I doubt any of those point to him breaking down due to age….
Matt Holliday has always seemed like an overlooked superstar to me. I can’t think of anyone as good as him who gets less attention.
I think part of the issue is that he’s just a player who is good at everything, so nothing really stands out too much, at least on the statsheet.
I’d wager he’s in the top 5 in the speed of the ball of his bat, when you watch him play it’s amazing how even normal grounders just rocket when he hits them.
But on the statsheet, that just adds up to a good average, great but not amazing OBP, solid slugging numbers, but maxing out around 30 home runs, nothing too special. Some stolen bases, but not a ton. Above average defense, but at a corner position.
He provides a lot of value in all aspects of the game and it adds up, but it isn’t flashy enough to get too much notice, it seems.
I think Buehrle could make some noise if that Miami park turns out to the be the pitchers’ park that the dimensions seem to indicate it will be. If he can stay healthy and pitch a little into his forties, I think he’d get some consideration. There’s still an element of baseball that wets themselves over 1) innings eaters and 2) pitchers who work quickly.
I believe that element of baseball can be described as “Managers”.
Suggestion for someone (if it hasn’t been done already): A nice study to do would be to see with each past season how many hall of famers were active each year, and compare year to year.
Brian McCann?
Wow, Ctrl+F failed me there.
He’s a tough case for me, as a Braves fan. I’d love to see him make it, but as a catcher, I figure he’s got two, maybe three peak years left, and he’s never had a 6 WAR year. I thought 2011 might be the year he exploded, value-wise, but he got hurt, missed time, and wasn’t hitting as well when he came back. There might be guys who can play for 14 years of 4.5 WAR value, but I don’t think a catcher can last that long. If he doesn’t just explode over the next couple of years, he’s going to fall into the same boat as Jorge Posada, without the brand name visibility.
Non-sabr factors could really help him. He’s won the SS almost every year and has been an Allstar every year since his second in the league (his first was abbreviated). If he ends up with over 300 HR as a primary catcher, I think he’ll get in. But yes, the next 3 years or so are vital for him, moreso than similarly successful players his age playing different positions.
Although I can see the arguement just an interesting FYI…
Pedroia: 25.7 WAR Born 8/83
Votto: 22.8 WAR Born 9/83
McCann: 25.1 WAR Born 2/84
Fielder: 23.4 WAR Born 5/84
Braun: 25.2 WAR Born 11/83
Call me a homer but I don’t see how Pedroia can be left out of that group.
Can we add Posasda to the “nice but not quite” group? And Mike Cameron to the defense heavy group?
He also left out Ryan Zimmerman (9/84), who is younger and has more WAR (30.2) than anyone in that group. But I think Cameron was predicting who will get in, not who should get in. Hall voters don’t look at WAR or UZR; they look at batting and position, basically. If you add up the batting and positional columns from these players WAR tables, the new ranking looks like this:
Ryan Braun – 179.1
Brian McCann – 164.7
Prince Fielder – 156.1
Joey Votto – 125.9
Ryan Zimmerman – 115.5
Dustin Pedroia – 106.6
That’s fair, but in the ‘who will get in’ discussion hardware talks, and Pedroia has a ROY and MVP in his trophy case, not to mention a World Championship, two Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. Give him 5 WAR through the next 5 years (gets him to 32 years old) and he’s already a 50+ WAR guy. None of this is to say he’s a lock, or any better a candidate than the other ‘off to a good start’ guys, but he belongs in that category.
Ray, can’t disagree with any of that.
Robinson Cano could fit in with the “Off to a good start” crowd.
Also, I think there’s a outside chance that Mark Buerhle (32 years old, ~45 WAR) could Eddy Murray his way into the Hall. While we can’t take his uncanny durability for granted, he could scrape 300 wins if he continues to pitch well into his 40s.
I agree with most of the lists. However, I think that Ichiro!, Sabathia and Vizquel will eventually get in for different reasons. Even right now, Ichiro is probably a first ballot guy. I can see him like an “inverse Kirby Puckett” and he’s even better. Obviously, a lot of people (me included) don’t think that Puckett deserves to be in the Hall, but I’m sure that Ichiro won’t have problems to get in even if he retires now.
Regarding Sabathia, he’s young enough to accumulate stats and as a yankee player he should have the fame and postseason stats to be an easy call.
Vizquel may be the most difficult case here. He doesn’t have the stats to be a HoFer, but I’m conviced that his fame as one of the best defensive players of history will get him in eventually, though it may last 10 years at least.
On the other hand, I really hope that Beltran, Rolen and A. Jones get in the Hall but I know it will be a difficult task.
I agree with too high on Ivan and too low on Ichiro.
I would probably switch them. Ichiro is a lock to make the HOF, Pudge not so sure. Hasn’t he been positively linked to steriods?
He got accused by Jose Canseco. That’s the extent of the link.
That and he lost 25 pounds the season after MLB started testing.
Wasn’t he also on the list of 110 or so players who failed the supposedly anonymous test a few years ago?
ms, he was not one of the names leaked from that list.
You are right, Yirmiyahu, I should have double checked before I posted. That said, hasn’t everyone else Canseco mentioned by name eventually been found to have done steroids? I mean, I get that this guy has credibility issues but on this one particular topic, namely who he did steroids with or who he was certain did them, he seems pretty reliable. Bagwell is having steroids held against him with even less evidence, as far as I’m aware. I think it is reasonable to expect Pudge to have this held against him. I think he should be in A-Rod’s category instead of the “no-brainer” category.
You’re correct, he hasn’t failed any test, but as I noted in my longer note yesterday somewhere down below is players who are suspected of taking PEDs will also be punished. We just don’t know how long and to what degree.
Yes, Vlad had minimal defensive ability, unless you know, you actually watch games and know he was quite good, ran down a lot of lost balls and turned them into outs, and held several tons of runners to their ‘safe’ base.
People who rely on WAR to determine HoF candidates are like people who rely on Looks to decide dates. Superficial losers.
So relying on looks in baseball = good, relying on looks when dating = bad? Not buying it.
You don’t bang the personality.
hahahaha
Aye, but as I’ve often heard, you can’t look at the mantle-piece while you’re poking the fire…
I don’t know how this really relates to baseball tho’
If you want to do a HoF analysis in 30 seconds or less, there is no better stat that WAR. Obviously we could dig in and write several days worth of material in each and every player but this is obviously a “it’s a slow news day” piece. And I don’t think anyone actually wants to do that.
So, wait, the argument is now that statnerds are the type of people who should be ignored because their girlfriends/wives are too attractive?
I’ll give you points for creativity, at least.
Chicks dig the long equations.
Chicks dig their mother-in-law’s basement!
How about Posada, Teixeira, Konerko and Ortiz as potentials? I wouldn’t necessarily give my vote to any of them — but all play in big markets, hit lots of HR, have won at least one WS, and seem to do the things voters generally give hitters credit for.
I don’t understand why Posada isn’t part of this conversation.
He has an .848 OPS over 7150 PA’s. Every other catcher with an OPS of .797+ and 5800+ PA’s is in the Hall of Fame (Mickey Cochrane, Bill Dickey, Gabby Hartnett, Yogi Berra, Ernie Lombardi, Joe Torre, Johnny Bench, King Kelly, Carlton Fisk) or will be soon enough (Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez).
He also has 275 HR’s (8th among catchers), 1065 RBI’s (14th among catchers), and a handful of World Series rings.
I think the problem is that there aren’t many catchers in the Hall in the first place. Lack of offense + career-shortening wear and tear = no gaudy numbers.
Joe Torre is in the HOF? News to me. As a manager in a few years, he will be, but not for his playing career.
Oops!
Posada’s probably worthy of being in the “close but not quite” group as well. His 122 wRC+ is solid for a catcher (though not amazing, and shows why you need to adjust for era rather than just using OPS), but he’s also considered poor at the types of things we struggle to quantify with catcher defense, and his career was a bit short, even by catcher standards.
Dave, I agree that he’s out based on the sabermetric analysis. But Hall voters aren’t very good at accounting for era or defense.
Mostly, I’m puzzled why he’s not mentioned in mainstream Hall of Fame conversations more often.
FWIW, I see Posada mentioned as a future HOFer fairly frequently. Don’t have a cite or two handy, but it definitely comes up. Largely because of where he played, I suspect.
I would have guessed that Posada wasn’t included because…is he really active? I doubt he’ll play next year. I think he’ll get a lot of votes — lots of Yankee lovers and voters who love rings out there and Posada was very good. I don’t think he was quite good enough but I’ll agree that he belongs in the conversation (if he is, indeed, “active”).
No Kershaw or Hamels? I think another reason there aren’t many pitchers is because, while there are potentially hall-worthy pitchers, a lot of them are still young and could blow out.
Also, let’s not forget Strasburg
little early to be calling a guy with 92 career IP a probably hall of famer, don’t you think?
“potentially” does not equal “probably.”
What about Mariano Rivera? He fits in terms of longevity and consistency. I realize closers have an uphill battle but wouldn’t an exception be made in this case?
Oops read right past him. Nevermind. Long day at work.
Did you read a different article?
If we’re talking about who could get their eventually, and a lot of this is based off his health and continued success, but I would like to see Starlin Castro mentioned even if he only has two years under his belt. He’s already been voted to an all-star game, hit .300 twice in his career and he’s still only 22 years old. Give us Cubs fans something to look forward to at least.
Now that’s some wild-eyed optimism right there.
Indeed. Cubs prospects seem to plateau early and fade quickly after that. I sincerely hope that won’t happen to Starlin, but 30 years of Shawon Dunston, Jerome Walton, Rick Wilkins, and Mark Prior don’t fill me with confidence. Before someone jumps all over me, yes correlation doesn’t necessarily = causation, and Prior was injured, but he still counts as a data point.
I did an entire article back on June18th (just for some friends who love talking baseball with me) about Mauer/M. Cabrera/Wright being the three position players that were 28 years old or younger with the best shot at making the Hall of Fame.
Not looking so great for Mauer and Wright at the moment.
A Catcher with 3 Batting titles and an MVP? Peak+ there BJ
We’ll see how he does with longevity.
Aren’t they pouring the foundation for a wing in the HoF for Bryce Harper right now?
I think they’ve already created the plaque, might as well get the ‘young’ Bryce on there. I’m personally hoping for the induction ceremony to be sometime in spring training, get it out of the way so he can concentrate on making the Nats.
Thome and his 600 homers make him a first ballot lock, and if Damon gets 3000 hits he will be in too, just cause voters hail that mark. It would be interesting to do a post on how likely a player is to get in the hall based of certain milestones
I agree that 600 HR, charming attitude, and clean image puts Thome in on the first ballot. He also has a long list of home towns that he has kept happy at this point.
I agree for Damon for similar reasons as Barkey Walker, if you substitute “distinct” or “memorable” for “clean.” I’m fine with personality going into the equation and Damon has a plus-personality.
Mark Buehrle: 46 WAR currently
If he pitches to age 38 or so, he’ll bwe in the 60 WAR range, which should at least make him a legit contender. He’s a guy that might retire next year, or pitch another 10 years and coast into the HOF. Either way, I think he’s a notable omission here.
Buehle’s at 2,500 innings with a career ERA 16 percent better than average. Bert Blyleven threw 5,000 innings with a career ERA 15 percent better than average, and he barely got in after a really, really long wait. This good-but-not-great type is generally not viewed all that well, and I think Buehrle will have to keep this up for another 5+ years to even be considered a serious candidate.
The usage of starting pitchers has also changed quite a bit between the years of Blyleven and Buehrle.
Okay, put Blyleven aside – he’s 600 innings away from having Chuck Finley’s career. Being an innings eater is nice, but HOF voters have generally not treated this pitcher type very well. He’s going to have to keep this up for a good while to get consideration.
Fair enough, Dave — but might voters not see the paucity of pitchers getting in that you predict, and feel like they might need to change their standards on which pitchers make it? And wouldn’t that work in Buerhle’s favor?
If Buehrle gets to the 60 WAR region, he’ll get more consideration from the voters than Finley for things like his no-hitter, perfect game, and World Series ring. They seem to like little things like that.
Tossing a perfecto might help Buehrle a bit. I’d be surprised if he even stays on the ballot for the full 15, though.
Beuhrle’s case is going to come down entirely to how much longer he can continue to be the most reliable pitcher since Maddux. He isn’t really an elite pitcher (at least not anymore) but if can continue to pump out 200 IP seasons with decent ERA’s his perfect game, no hitter, postseason success and reputation for being an elite defensive player who absolutely destroys opponents’ running game will carry him in.
He’s also 5th all-time in strikeouts, something Buehrle will never get close to.
This list highlights the problems with pitcher’s WAR. The amount of WAR a great pitcher gets is not even close to the amount of WAR a great hitter gets. Haven’t you noticed how skewed the totals are year by year? The leading WAR hitter always has one full WAR more than the leading WAR pitcher. As you implied, any system that doesn’t have Halladay in as an automatic is flawed.
I believe fangraphs has repeatedly acknowledged that its calcualtion of pitcher’s WAR needs some more tweaking anyway due to its overreliance on strikeouts. Maybe some sort of allowance for obtaining outs with fewer pitches could be added in order to increase overall WAR.
WAR’s got plenty of flaws, but there’s no other single statistic that gives a better snapshot of a guy’s career contributions.
The fact that pitchers have lower WAR totals is interesting, but its in line with traditional notions. Pitchers rarely win MVP’s because most sportswriters think they don’t contribute as much as position players.
Pitchers rarely win MVP’s because most sportswriters feel that the Cy Young is the pitchers version of the MVP. Moreover, Verlander won it this year with 7.0 fWAR, less than Bautista, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Kinsler, Cabrera and even Sabathia (tied with Granderson). Doesn’t that tell you that the world agrees that fWAR is flawed for pitchers? Seriously, I thought statheads were united in this thought. You can compare pitchers to pitchers with it but not pitchers to hitters.
Pitchers have lower WAR totals than hitters because they are less valuable, not because WAR is broken.
Winning is basically a break-even proposition between run scoring and run prevention. Position players contribute all of run scoring and some of run prevention, while pitchers only contribute to some of run prevention. Even if you believe that pitchers are responsible for 90% of run prevention, that leaves them with just 45% of total wins, compared to 55% for position players.
And we’ve never said anything about WAR being over reliant on strikeouts. There are a few pitchers who have shown a consistent ability to post lower than expected BABIPs and are more valuable than our WAR gives them credit for (Mariano Rivera is a prime example), but they’re few and far between.
That 45/55 split assumes that the pitcher isn’t hitting or fielding, which is entirely untrue in the national league and partially untrue in the american league. Assuming that however, that 55% is split over 9 players, so its actually 6.1% of a win per position player whereas the pitcher(s) get 45% of that win to him(them)selves. The average starting pitcher will get 5.5 inn/9 or 27.5% of that win all to himself. If he pitches every fifth game that equates to 5.5% per game. However, that’s just the average pitcher. Roy Halladay averaged 7.3 innings per start, or 81% of a game. He deserved 36% of his game/wins all to himself. To meet that standard a position player would have to be worth nearly 6 times as much as his peers for every win and that’s basically impossible. These numbers back up the theorum that you yourself threw out there: that pitchers are undervalued in fWAR.
I also recall several fangraphs articles mentioning how pitchers that pitch to contact receive an unfair amount of WAR versus those who aim for strikeouts but give up more hits. Any manager would tell you that a popup or easy grounder is worth more than a strikeout because it keeps the pitch count down and decreases the number of attempts to get a hit by the hitter. However, fWAR doesn’t account for that.
Stan,
You’re reading too far into this. Dave threw those numbers out there as a hypothetical. Clearly in a perfect analysis you adjust for pitcher hitting and fielding.
“Any manager would tell you that a popup or easy grounder is worth more than a strikeout because it keeps the pitch count down and decreases the number of attempts to get a hit by the hitter. However, fWAR doesn’t account for that.”
What is meant by this? Clearly there is a situational factor involved here. A 1 pitch out might be preferable with no one on, but I’ll take the filthy pitcher with 1 out and a man on 3rd any day of the week. There are only two types of outcomes that generally don’t allow a baserunner, a strike out or a pop out. Everything else is playing with fire.
But the problem with fWAR for pitchers is that it only looks at four possible outcomes for a pitcher, and punishes the pitcher for allowing 3 of them. Pitchers can and will pitch to the strength or lack thereof of their defenses, yet FIP doesn’t reward a pitcher for doing so. Look at Matt Garza. Plays for a good defense in Tampa – pitches to contact. Plays for a crap defense in Chicago – goes for strikeouts.
Why is Buehrle’s ERA four tenths of a run better than his xFIP, despite playing in a hitter’s park for half of his career? Because he improves the defense behind him by limiting baserunners leads, fielding his own position well, working quickly to keep his defense fresh and pitching to the positioning of his defenders. WAR doesn’t give him any credit for any of those things.
If someone had told Buehrle 10 years ago that he wasn’t going to be paid for run prevention, just for K/BB rate, you could bet he’d have 300 more strikeouts in his career and a higher fWAR.
@ stan –
Are you really trying to argue that pitchers are a positive force at the plate? That their offensive contributions bolster their case for the Hall? If anything, their offensive “contributions” are ignored when debating their merits for the Hall of Fame or else there would be far fewer pitchers in the Hall.
Weak grounders = base hits many, many times.
Agree with several posters above. If you think the WAR statistic has ANY bearing whatsoever on who gets in, you do not know baseball or baseball writers. Since the entire article is based on WAR, there is very little credibility to your rankings. Also, agree 100% that what happens with Piazza will give guidance on Pudge Rodriguez. I think Ichiro and Vizquel will get in for sure.
Dave Cameron didn’t say that WAR had any bearing on who gets in, and the article is not based on WAR whatsoever. Nowhere (except in parentheses next to each players name) does the article even mention WAR. And the players aren’t ranked by WAR. Mariano Rivera (39.0 WAR) is a first ballot hall of famer, Vladimir Guerrero (60.0 WAR) “should get in”, but Bobby Abreu (62.6 WAR) is a “nice career, but not quite.”
If you’d rather some basic stat in parentheses for quick reference purposes, which would you suggest? Runs? RBI’s?
I think people are forgetting that Pudge Rodriguez is viewed as the 2nd best catcher ever, right behind bench. Catching defense lags behind the other metrics, but during his prime he was a stopper.
PED linkage might hold him back some, but for a decade Pudge was it at catcher.
I think we’ve forgotten just how good he was behind the plate.
Miguel Cabrera is continually under-rated IMO. Either due to his body type (many here are still selling jeans) or his undeserved rep as no defense. He’s an elite bat, second only to Pujols for start of career among peers. He’s going to rack up serious batting runs over his career. He’ll be a peak over longevity guy, which is better IMO.
1. I’ll take Gary Carter over Rodriguez at #2.
2. No one is “forgetting” anything. Dave has him as a 1st ballot HOF. IMO that’s wrong. The steroid suspicion should keep him out for at least 1 year (a “slap on the wrist”).
Yes, Pudge is as “guilty” as Bagwell, and Bagwell didn’t get in first ballot. I’d bet Pudge waits a few years. We’ll see.
Guiltier. Bagwell never had any accusations leveled against him. Rodriguez was at least named by Canseco, who so far hasn’t been wrong about anyone.
Greg Maddux and Mark Grace were Cub prospects once, weren’t they?
Rafael Palmeiro, too. Not that he or Grace will ever sniff the Hall without buying a ticket.
How about Robinson Cano for the last category? 24.5 total WAR at age 28? I think he has a pretty good shot.
I don’t think it’s too early to put Kershaw’s name out there. Not if you got Felix and Lincecum.
Wait a minute, where is Paul Konerko on this list? I swear Hawk Harrelson said he was first ballot!
Will teams they played on have much effect, for the borderline cases? Damon being part of the broke-the-curse Red Sox, for example.
Damn right it will.
I can’t imagine that being part of the 2004 Red Sox would carry any more weight than being a part of any other WS championship team. Their accomplishment was no greater than that of any other WS champions.
Come on Stan, you’re thinking rationally. Being a member of the curse breaking Sox and getting to 3,000 hits will ensure Damon’s enshrinement, and he might not need the 3K. Baseball writers are a sentimental lot, and Damon’s close enough to eligibility that the guard won’t have changed that much.
Honestly I think the curse stuff is already forgotten. Its been 7 years since the curse was broken and it will be at least 5 more before Damon is up for election. I think the “bloody sock” stuff will get some play but that’s it.
However, it will be interesting to see if he gets in with 3000 hits. I think the emphasis on counting stats is waning but that’s a big magic number.
If Damon somehow does get to 3000 and is inducted, doesn’t he probably go in as a Royal?
I think number of rings matters but being part of the “broke-the-curse Red Sox” won’t. Damon has, what, 2 rings? That will matter to some but being a part of the ’04 Red Sox won’t matter more than being a part of the ’98 Yankees, IMO.
I think having Cabrera in the last category is pretty damn surprising. I say this without exaggeration: If Miguel Cabrera retired today he would deserve the HOF.
Also, I think Ichiro is a no doubter.
If Miguel Cabrera retired today, he wouldn’t be eligible (he’s only played 9 seasons).
From a more traditional perspective, Cabrera is a 1B with 277 HR and less than 1000 RBI. Good luck getting into the Hall with that.
If Albert Pujols retired today, he would be in. Cabrera is going to need another 7-10 seasons of solid production.
You’re partially right. 7-10 seasons is a gross exaggeration though. realistically probably 5 high quality seasons does it for him.
I wonder if whispers about Ivan Rodriquez, who put on massive muscle mass one offseason and then “decided to slim down” when baseball implemented drug testing will impact his voting a bit.
I know voters seem to be basing steroids on the admitted/all but admitted criteria but one has to be an optimistic guy to think Rodriguez was clean pre 2004/5 after which his OPS plummeted. I understand catchers decline and stats don’t prove drug use, but given his rather drastic weight/body changes in both directions, his stats and the environment he was in (the Texas chemistry club of the 90′s), I have a hard time thinking he was clean.
I’m a “let them all in the HOF” type of guy, but I’m not sure Ivan Rodriguez is a no brainer first ballot guy if people are still considering potential (likely?) PED use.
Melky Cabrera?
Dave, does Damon’s 2 WS Titles help him or is his bad defense his biggest folly?
Didn’t read through all the comments but I read an article a few years ago that broke down how many HOFers there are in the majors at any time based on historical trends and and number of teams and so forth and determined that in this era, there are 40-50 HOFers in the majors at any given time. Just something to think about.
Also re: pitchers – Joe Posnanski wrote a great article a couple years ago pointing out how many HOF pitchers got there largely on the strength of how they did in their 30′s: Randy Johnson, Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, Nolan Ryan and so forth. His 30′s is the only reason Jamie Moyer ever gets brought up in HOF discussions. (not that anyone thinks he’ll make it but as of a few years ago, his odds of getting to 300 wins were not zero which is astounding if you look at where he was at age 30) If forecasting prospects is hard, well, forecasting that a guy is going to win 150-180 games in their 30′s is just a total crapshoot.
I think Vizquel is in easily. The obvious point of comparison is going to be hall-of-famer Ozzie Smith.
Smith has about 100 more SB, half as many strikeouts, and a slightly better OPS+ (87).
Vizquel has about 400 more hits (2841), 50 more doubles, and a superficially better slashline (due to playing in a more offensive era).
I think Vizquel’s reputation as a defender is similar enough to Smith’s to warrant inclusion in a lot of people’s minds. The fact that he’s within 200 hits of 3,000 is going to push over the edge into “lock” territory.
Ozzie is seen as one-of-a-kind as a defender and as a personality. I think that Vizquel will have a hard time getting in – I see him lingering in HOF purgatory (15-40% range).
Doesn’t Jason Giambi at least deserve to be in the “Nice career, but not quite” category? Dude is at 428 career dingers, has had some awfully high OBPs (first in his league in 2000, 2001, and 2005), won an MVP award (in 2000), finished in the top ten in MVP voting on three other occasions (8th place in 1999, 2nd place in 2001, fifth place in 2002). He has a 0% chance of ever getting in but he’s still right there with guys like Jamie Moyer and Johnny Damon, right?
If steroid tests/admissions/rumors knock Big Papi, Canseco, Glaus, Juan Gone, Tejada, LuGo, and McGriff from “Maybe” to “No”, and Sheff, IRod, Manny, Big Mac, Kevin Brown, Piazza, Palmiero, Pettite, and Sosa from “Probably” to “Maybe”, and even Bonds and Clements from “100% First Ballot” to “Who Knows”, then I would give the golden thong-ed one an approximately 0% chance.
The only time I’ve ever heard McGriff’s name mentioned in connection with steroids was this one time when this assclown Snow Leopard wrote about it in the comments section of a Fangraph’s article.
Right you are TK about McGriff – I misread the columns in a document I keep, and put someone from my “No Suspicion At All” list into my “Suspicious” list.
If that’s your style of opening a conversation with a well-meaning stranger however I imagine your interpersonal relationships must generally be pretty shitty.
McGriff is my favorite player ever. I pull no punches when defending him against steroid accusations, whether they’re from strangers or close friends. If that makes strangers on the Internet or people I actually know upset, so be it.
I will however give you credit for admitting you made a mistake a retract my “assclown” label.
Hah OK fair enough
TK TK TK:
Yes, you defended McGriff – but there is a problem here.
Reading the comments – it is clear people are satisfied to point to some players and say “no connection = no suspicion.”
Likewise, the voters are happy enough keep the blinders on and vote for only some of this generation, basically saying ‘move along, nothing to see here,’ and punting on the PED question, except for Bonds who has a clear path to the HOF.
Robbie Alomar rode this sentiment into the HOF – innocent or not does Robbie make the hall with 20% less aggregate stats?
Thome is already being anointed with the never whatever, and this will be part of his HOF push.
Probably by the time Thome makes the ballot, Piazza will already be a HOFer, and I-Rod will have been denied a couple of times.
Is that ultimately satisfying?
Sadly, I think Ivan Rodriguez should also be in the “Would be a no-brainer, but STEROIDS category.” He didn’t admit to using steroids like A-Rod, but the level of suspicion is so high that is it going to impact the voting. It clearly held back Jeff Bagwell in his first run through, and I see Ivan Rodriguez being impacted to an even higher degree because the suspicions around him seem to be higher. We’ll have a better idea on how much I-Rod will be impacted in a little more than a year in January 2013 when Mike Piazza is on the HOF ballot. Piazza by all standards is the greatest hitting catcher in the game’s history and he never failed a drug test, but most people are convinced that he did take PEDs, led by Murray Chass’ drum beating. Many BBWAA members base their votes on beliefs, and players have no chance to prove they’re wrong. Sad, but true.
I’d also add Cliff Lee to “Off to a good start – keep it up and we’ll talk.” It seems you’ve designed the category mostly for very good younger players viewed to have enough road to continue building their cases, but I think there’s room for a player like Lee who has had four straight years of high peak, averaging just about 7 WAR per season. I’m big on peak, more so than cumulative (although there’s a balance that’s needed), so he’s already got my attention. The question is can he add enough on the cumulative side to make up for his slower start. If he was a position player I’d have my questions since he just completed his age-32 season, but he’s not. He’s a lefty pitcher who has maintained his peak for four straight years, and indeed in some ways is growing stronger, registering his fifth-straight season of increasing K%. I can see him maintaining his current pitching level for a few more seasons, and then entering his decline phase but being effective into his late 30s. If he had accumulated his current WAR level by being a healthier pitcher through most of career, but just a good pitcher quality wise, then I wouldn’t add him, but it’s because he has such a high peak that’s going on right now, well that’s what makes him a candidate for the “keep it up and we’ll talk” category. My gut says he’ll get to 200+ wins, which will give him enough cumulative numbers that his peak will take on enough meaning for his election.
I’d also add Cano into the “keep it up and we’ll talk” group. He might be overrated, but the term overrated is an emotionally charged word and a conversation stopper because it’s built on quicksand, representing a personal and subjective determination that I try to remove when assessing players’ worth. His DP partner, Derek Jeter, had press clippings that painted a greater player than he was, but Jeter is also a slam dunk HOFer. Whenever I would have a conversation about Jeter and someone brought up the overrated term, I would end the discussion because I knew the person really wasn’t interested in the conversation. Cano, of course, is nowhere near Jeter, but that’s not what we’re discussing. Is he worthy of someone to watch. Right now he has more WAR than Prince Fielder, and he is an offensive-minded second baseman, and voters seem to like offense more than defense. It’s the flipside of the Jones, Rolen discussion. I do believe Cano is a better fielder than UZR shows, although not dramatically, and whether Cano is a +3 or a -3 fielder isn’t going to have much to say about his HOF election. It’ll be his bat. He’s averaged six WAR the last couple of seasons. If he can maintain around five WAR the next few seasons, and then begins a more gentle decline, he’ll probably be a strong candidate. I should add, though, that his lower walk rate my very well mean he will not have a gentle decline!
Ditto for Pedroia. ROY, MVP, three AS games in five years, recognized as a an all-around player. Has a much WAR as Cano and is a year younger. He’s earned the right to be on the “keep it up and we’ll talk.”
RobM:
Thanks for your Interesting read about the two catchers Piazza and I-Rod. I certainly support your presentation of how their careers are perceived as far as PED use/rumors.
Here’s how it goes down:
Piazza will likely enter the HOF on the 1st or 2nd ballot – and no one will say anything about possible PED use. Robbie Alomar rules will apply.
I-Rod will wait years, but eventually get in sometime after Bonds goes in.
Fuck, Felix already has 32.7 WAR; he is insane.
Cabrera is putting together a pretty darn good career.
Same old, same old. As a mathematician, first lesson I learned was “A stat by itself is meaningless”. Years ago my stats profs made the argument that people constantly look at one stat (WAR in this case) and think it means anything. WAR is influenced by parks, how many good pitchers there are, rule changes, how many teams there are, money, and n and on, yet is vastly overused anyway.
As one of my ex-stats profs put it, “People like to use advanced statistics because they obfuscate reality to suit their own bias. It’s like dating a women based on how beautiful/rich she is, but ignoring the syphilis, check kiting, herpes, and bullying, and avoiding superior women because they don’t fit your definition of beauty, though they don’t have all the negative baggage. Focus on one stat who find important and you too will miss all the warts, and wind up the fool for it.”
That horse dead yet?
As a Dodger fan, i have a negative reaction to Andruw Jones, but looking at his page, his defensive numbers are out of this world. And it has to be real, because he put up an UZR over 20 year after year, and b-ref also has him at over 2.0 defensive WAR many times. I really wish I could have seen him play during his peak. I don’t even know what defense at that level looks like.
I watched him play during his peak – great range, great jump, the best at coming in on a ball and making a sliding catch.
PS – Based on the eye test, the best defenders I’ve ever seen were AJones, MSchmidt, OSmith, and possibly YMolina. (You can probably tell I’m an NL guy…)
I’m 26* and can safely say that Andruw Jones is one of the two best defensive players I have ever seen (the other is Pudge Rodriguez). In his prime he had everything you could ever ask for; massive range, a laser guided canon for an arm, and (with the possible exception of Willie Mays) the greatest fly ball tracking abilities of any outfielder in history (no doubt the result of his father taking to the beach everyday and hitting him nothing but popups in the swirling ocean air). The best thing I think I can say is that watching Jones was like watching a daily clinic on outfield defense.
*I’m too young to have an real memory of Ozzie Smith in his prime, but I have no doubt he was the greatest defensive player (regardless of position) in the history of the game.
A. Jones might suffer the way Raines has – his great early peak is overshadowed by the “hanging around” years later in his career.
I am quite surprised by the lack of Mark Teixeira love. I think only one post mentioned him . . . but this is a guy with almost 40 WAR through his age 31 season. His durability has been great, his flashy HR and RBI numbers are going to get some votes, he’s won a WS and 4 Gold Gloves . . . and he’s signed through, like, 2075 or something, so he’ll add lots more to his already strong counting stats. He also has a stretch of 8 straight 30 HR + 100 RBI seasons, and it is still going.
For the record I have no Mark Teixeira jersey, he’s not on my fantasy team, and I’m not his cousin or his neighbor from elementary school. He just always struck me as a guy who was on a very traditional HoF career path.
He’s on the Palmeiro path – almost never one of the very best at his position, no outstanding peak (as compared to his own career), viewed well for defense, but could end up with a lot of high career totals. The past five years, the most friendly time period possible to evaluate him on, he’s clearly behind Pujols, he’s behind Cabrera, and similar to Gonzalez and Fielder. For HoF purposes, he’s probably behind Howard as well, even though we all know Howard isn’t as good. In a few years, Votto jumps near the top of the list as well (looking at 5 year totals for no particular reason).
I compare Teixeira to Palmeiro because at some point (assuming he keeps going), he’ll approach a major milestone and people will suddenly notice they have to consider him as a possible HoFer. It will help if he can revert to regular season form in the playoffs at some point too… that .207/.315/.322 line will drag down a borderline case.
The “Palmeiro path” is a lock for induction, assuming Tex doesn’t piss dirty.
Palmeiro waltz’s into the HOF if not for the whole steroid issue, which doesn’t impact Teixeira.
I’m guessing he won’t make it because it seems like he might already be in decline. I think we’ll have a better idea after 2012 if he can correct his tendency to pull the ball too much from the leftside, which allows teams to use the shift to defense him.
I was thinking yesterday that beyond Dave’s list above, there is another category he could have created, which are players we don’t think will make the HOF for various reasons, but are very good players, and from that group, there will probably be a couple of HOFers. I was thinking actually of someon like Teixeira or Adrian Gonzalez or Robinson Cano or Dustin Pedroia. (I just realized those are all Yankee and Red Sox players. Not intentional, but gives you the idea, I would have included Adrian Gonzalez prior to his trade to the Red Sox.)
If Palmeiro had played half his career with the Yankees, he’d be in the Hall of Fame already.
It’s really too bad, but I think Kemp’s 2010 is the reason he’s not on the “on the right track” list. If he had put up 5 WAR that year, which is what he put up in 2009, then he’d be at 24 through his age 26 season, which would easily put him in Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Brian McCann type company. Also, it’s obviously far too early to tell, but Kershaw is on pace to end up with more career WAR than any other currently active pitcher (fingers crossed)
I don’t see how Ichiro isn’t a shoo-in. He’s the first major import from Japan to be wildly successful, and because of that, he stands more valuable for MLB than other candidates with similar stats. However, on his stats alone, even without the defense (although I’d be shunning WAR here), I would consider him a lock. He is one of the greatest contact hitters of his age, and his batting average usually makes up for his lack of walks, contributing to a positive on-base percentage.
I’m with you. Even if he never played another game, I would be shocked if Ichiro didn’t make it in by his second ballot at the latest.
Yadier Molina. I’m one who values defense at the catcher position more than most, but I don’t see how he isn’t on the “soon to be in the discussion” list. He will go down as one of the best defensive catchers of his era. Absolutely shuts down an opposing team’s running game. Ask Ian Kinsler and the Texas Rangers. 2 WS already before the age of 30, multiple all-star, multiple gold gloves, and a clutch hitter with postseason defining moments (2006 NLCS homer against the Mets, 2011 NLDS Gm 5 Utley caught stealing).
Much as I’d love to agree, I don’t see it. Maybe if he keeps up his improvement with the stick and manages to play elite defense for another five years, but the odds of that are pretty slim.
Even for a catcher, dude can’t really hit. The AVG is kind of there but the OBP and SLG definitely are not. His relatively good 2011 raised his career slash line to “sort of respectable,” and he’s on the back end of his prime. If he plays a long time he’ll be able to point at a lot of great defense but his OPS+ could drift back below 80. Oof. I have respect for his defense but I have a hard time putting a guy who averages less than 1 WAR and somewhere around 25 XBHs per year at the plate in the hall. No one should be judged by AS appearances, even the dumbest of writers don’t lean too heavily on your ability to play for a team that has a lot of fans. Clutch moments are nice, but really more a of last tiebreaker than a top item on the resume.
Also, if you asked Ian Kinsler, he might tell you a little bit about the critical base he stole Molina in the 9th inning of game 2 of the Series.
Great article! I would really appreciate some insight on recently-retired players, such as Bonds, and their odds of making the hall.
Fact: Todd Helton has the second highest OBP out of ANY LIVING HUMAN BEING.
Hey everybody, I’d love to hear what Dave has to say but I appreciate all opinions. What do you think of Utley? I know you mentioned him as probably not but what do you think will get him in? A few more MVP-caliber years? Also I feel Halladay and Thome are locks. Thome has 600 home runs and Halladay is Halladay. Helton seems like he deserves it to me. His peak year, 2000 in my opinion, was one of the greatest non steroid-enhanced statistical seasons I can remember. He hit .372, got on base at a .463 clip and slugged almost .700. He hit almost 60 doubles, hit 42 home runs and still got 216 hits even though he walked 103 times. Absolutely insane. Thanks and sorry for my ranting. Go Phils!
Gotta remember that his 2000 season came in the most history friendly year and most hitter friendly park in the history of the game. Yes it was a good season (especially because he was good defensively) but it was not historic.
Helton had a .353/.441/.633 away line that year, also his 59 doubles were certainly historic.
If we assume Helton was clean, which seems very reasonable given his career arc, it doesn’t matter than 2000 was a historically hitter-friendly year. It was historic because of guys like Giambi and Bonds and who knows how many others juicing up to put up numbers. You can’t punish Helton for that, it makes no sense. In fact you should credit him for being able to keep up without artificial help.
Ichiro up a level, Pudge down a level
I can’t see Ichiro making it in before the fourth/fifth ballot. He has zero power and those guys have problems getting in. I thought he might compare to Rod Carew, but Carew had 7 batting titles to Suzuki’s 2 and an OPS+ 15 points higher.
I’d be very, very surprised if Todd Helton doesn’t get in. Helton is basically 90s-00s version of Bill Terry, and the HOF loves those high average guys with some power and lots of ribbies.
Brian McCann? I really doubt it. He’s not getting any better with the bat and his defense is likely to decline. He might squeeze out another 20-25 WAR, but even with a nice-for-a-catcher 45-50 WAR, HOF voters don’t look at WAR. Who knows, maybe in fifteen years they will, but by then WAR will be much more accurate and/or replaced by something else.
I’d love to see Jim Edmonds elected someday, but don’t think it will happen. But he was much better than players like Dawson and Rice. Throw in Dewey Evans and Bobby Grich, while we’re at it, not to mention Trammell and Whitaker.
I’d love to see an article about all the players not in the HOF that have higher WAR totals than Jim Rice. There are some great and deserving players there.
I think McCann has a much better case than you give him credit for. He’s 27 and has already made six All Star teams in his first six full seasons and won five Silver Sluggers. And while he is no great shakes defensively, his bat should continue to carry his glove well into his 30s.
Catchers are inherently risky, but I think McCann is on track to make it into the HoF.
I suppose the argument could be made that Brian McCann is Jorge Posada, if Posada had gotten started earlier, although with somewhat better defense (although who knows how McCann will age). Posada wasn’t a regular until his age 26 season; through age 25 he had accumulated only 0.4 WAR. Now, with his career nearing its end, he has 47.6 WAR–that’s 15th all time among catchers.
McCann, on the other hand, already has 25.1 WAR through his age 27 season and is in the top 70 all-time. Where Posada had 0.4 WAR entering his age 26 season, McCann had 16.6 WAR entering his age 26 season. That gives McCann a 16 WAR head-start; If they age similarly, McCann could be looking at 60+ WAR by the end of his career, which would put him on the edge of the top ten.
There are four catchers with 55-65 WAR, a range that McCann has a good shot of finishing in (barring injury): Mickey Cochrane (55.9), Gabby Hartnett (56.1), Ted Simmons (61.1) and Bill Dickey (63.8)–three Hall of Famers and one almost-HOFer.
If you look at the list of WAR leaders among catchers, everyone above Simmons is either in the Hall of Fame, will be in the Hall of Fame (Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Piazza), or played a smallish percentage of their games at catcher (Joe Torre, 41% as a catcher) (For those that question whether Piazza will or should be in the Hall, don’t forget how great he was from 1993-2002–easily the best offensive peak for any catcher; Piazza would have made the Hall if he had been a first baseman; actually, one could argue that he would have been more Hall-worthy as a first baseman, without the stigma of being the “Greatest hitting and worst fielding catcher of all time”).
But to even be considered for the Hall, McCann–being merely a solid defender–has to at least make it to the 50+ WAR level, maybe 60. According to WAR, he’s a better defender than Posada or Simmons, and much better than Piazza, but he’s still going to have to produce with the bat for a long period to make it.
Let’s revisit this topic in five years or so when he’s 32-33. If McCann has 45 WAR, I think he’ll be well on the way; if he’s at 40 WAR, he’ll probably have a 50-50 chance; if he’s at 35 WAR, he is unlikely to make it.
If anyone reading this has a HOF vote, mark B. Chen when the time comes.
In 2084.
No love for Greinke in the “Off to a good start” list? 28 and sitting at 30.7 WAR.
I know, I know, toiling with the lowly Royals all those years and not getting any wins or defense will hurt him with the voters, but his induction speech alone would make it a great decision.
No mentioned of Pedro Martinez? Smh
Article is about active players. Pedro is a no-questions-asked first ballot shoo-in.
I’ve got four young guys I think should be added to the list, as least one of whom was already mentioned by another commenter- Clayton Kershaw, Mike Stanton, Justin Upton, and Jay Bruce. All guys are awfully accomplished considering how young they are. I like their chances at least as much as Lincecum, Braun, Votto, and Fielder.
I think it is a fun thing to think about; trying to project guys like Bruce, Kershaw, Upton and Stanton but none of those guys has had enough seasons in the bigs yet to give them a case. Most of those guys have only had 2 all star quality years in the bigs. In 3-4 years maybe if they are still producing like they are, they can thrown into this conversation. You never want to try to look too far into the future and predict stuff: things change, guys get injured, or just mysteriously stop producing after promising starts.
I’m surprised nobody’s mentioned RA Dickey. His prime is going to last 15 years, he’s a shoo-in.
Ryan Zimmerman belongs in the last category. He’s entering his age 27 season (a year younger than Braun) with 30.2 WAR. If he is healthy and the Nats contend in 2012-13, he’ll be in the MVP discussion.
re: “keep it up and we’ll talk” – i’m thinkin’ adam wainwright…
Only if he keeps it up for almost a decade. Started too late to accumulate.
Doc will have sticklers?!?! How often are two no-no’s thrown in a year by a pitcher? How many have been done in a playoff situation where the stress is probably overwhelming (only dreamed of playing, never got a taste).
A -rod is damn good, when I think HOF (aside from Cobb and a few others) A -rods yell during that Jays game (when he yelled mine or got it…..but he was running the bases?)Actually makes me wonder when else he cheated, aside from the steroid aided numbers. I’d say he should be a no way in hell. Also why is Ichiro so low? He’s been stellar since the M’s imported him. Granted the career will be semi abbreviated but wasn’t Kofax’s?
If Ty Cobb can beat a disabled man in the stands during a game and get in, and Robbie Alomar can spit on an umpire, I’m pretty sure A-Rod can deke a SS and still make it, though with steroids who knows.
If you want a real good maybe, give Lawrie on the Jay’s 15 years, if he pulls off what he’s been doing than he’s a very good possibility.
as far as Omar, God bless him for having a long career but he’s no HOF’er.
another if he keeps it up I think could be Ricky Romero. Way too early to call him or Lawrie into thought but Ricky drops his ERA yearly and doesn’t lose by much when he does lose. Low walks, decent K rate? Maaaybe!
He’s had, what, 2 months in the big leagues? It’s a tad early to suggest that that 2 months will extend for the next 15 years or so.
Hey so what would be your conclusion about Yadier Molina? When he first debuted his defense was the main aspect when looking at him, but coming off his best offensive year, he only seems to be getting better at both., thanks.
Todd Helton absolutely should be in the Hall. First ballot, no, second ballot, yes. Monster numbers during his prime stretch, and a batting average consistently over .300 during the majority of his career aside, just for the fact that he remains one of the clean role models during a dirty era. I see those players getting rewarded.
1 word — Colorado.
I see those players (see: Walker, Larry) NOT being rewarded.
Where is David Ortiz? I believe if he reaches 450- 500 home runs combined with all of his clutch hits and postseason heroics he should be in the hall of fame. If closers are in the hall then DH’S should be too. They’re both specialists. As far as the PED thing, he didn’t start putting up big numbers until drug testing was started in 2004. He’s put up big numbers the whole time testing has been done.
Edgar Martinez: 70 WAR, 6 6+ WAR year. Struggling to get in the HOF as a DH.
David Ortiz: 36 WAR, 1 6+ WAR year. No.
Adrian Gonzalez in the last group? If he has another 5 good years in Boston, he will finally be on the map after being unnoticed in San Diego and playing in an extreme pitcher’s park.
Sure, Utley has had a short career, but i am not sure people realize how great he has been in those years. According to WAR, Chase has been the second best player in the NL since 2006 only behind Pujols. Add in his postseason heroics and potential to add on to his numbers, and I think he will have a very good case for the Hall of Fame by the end of his career
One guy I haven’t seen mentioned yet – Chris Carpenter. He’s accumulated 42.4 WAR in 2202 innings. He’s been durable for the past couple of years and could theoretically put up 10 more WAR in his next 2 seasons, pushing him past 50. He has 2 main drawbacks: his early career in Toronto and his injury woes, but if we’re looking at what voters normally look at it, he has a CY to his credit and at least 2 WS rings. He also has solid Post Season numbers although his counting stats obviously are going to be a little low.
Still, I think you could throw him in the “Nice Career, but not quite” category. Similar to Buerhle, but that could just be my bias shining through. What do you guys think?
He was great when he pitched, but he just didn’t pitch enough.
how can ozzie smith be a first ballot hall of famer and you say no dice to omar. omar has better offensive numbers and they are very comparable on defense. i always consider that a great comparison. great list though for sure i think.
Thats a realy good point. I think Ozzie just had this glow about him that made it seem that his defensive was so awesome, which it was, that what he produced on offense didnt seem to matter that much. Vizquel is in my opinion one of the only guys that is comparable to Ozzie on defense. Maybe HOF philosphy has changed, making offensive production a neccesity. Either way, i agree that if Ozzie’s a 1st ballot HOF, Vizquels gotta fit in there somewhere. BTW, please visit my new website/blog, TannerBall.com. It has my reactions to some of the latest signings, deals and other baseball related stuff.
If you want to compare him to someone, how about comparing him to Trammell? At what point of their careers do you trade Trammell for Vizquel? To me the answer is never (or age 39 I guess).
Ozzie Smith was better offensively (different era) and an incomparably better defender.
Smith:
94 wRC+
64.6 bWAR (#117 all time)
70.3 fWAR (#13 among SS’s)
580 steals (#21 all time)
+239 Total Zone rating (#4 all time)
5.215 RF/9 (#5 all time)
.9847 Fielding % (#2 all time)
8375 SS assists (#1 all time)
4249 SS putouts (#8 all time)
15 All-Star selections
13 consecutive Gold Gloves
1 Silver Slugger
received MVP votes in 6 seasons
runner up in both MVP and RoY
Vizquel:
85 wRC+
42.3 bWAR (#376 all time)
48.1 fWAR (#32 among SS’s)
401 steals (#70 all time)
+130 Total Zone rating (#28 all time)
4.620 RF/9 (#69 all time)
.9782 Fielding % (#12 all time)
7656 SS assists (#3 all time)
4092 SS putouts (#11 all time)
3 All-Star selections
11 Gold Gloves
0 Silver Sluggers
received MVP votes in 1 season
This is great – hard to argue against the numbers when they are presented like this.
Being iconic has always been an important booster. I’m always a bit bemused by these discussions that try to turn it into the Hall of Objectively Great (and then think Ichiro might have a hard time getting in).
Tanner, I agree with the “Ozzie Glow”. The was always something about the Wizard. Maybe his backflips?
I also agree Omar doesn’t get much credit, but how much of Ozzie’s glove was it that got him in? There’s no denying he was more than a Hope Diamond at SS.
Given Halladay just had his best season ever (by WAR) last year, he’ll be in in the no-doubter category before long. He’ll surpass 200 wins this year, and 250 pretty easily. Sabathia, provided he doesn’t get hurt (or too fat) actually has a good shot at 300 wins, so should fit into the no-doubter category a few years down the line also.
Out of all the starting pitchers with a significant amount of major league time (3 or more years of full seasons), I’d estimate CC, Verlander, and F. Hernandez as the only three with a realistic chance of getting to 300 wins. Realistic defined as playing to 39-40 years old and with no major injuries. The only way Hernandez gets there is if the quality of team he plays for chances significantly in the next year or two. Halladay maybe has a rough shot at it, but I don’t see him winning 20 games/year well into his late 30′s. Obviously if he pitches into his 40′s he’ll give 300 a good run, but I don’t think one can expect pitchers to go into their 40′s – at least with much quality.
Not many pitchers go into their 40′s with much quality, but a few do – Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson come instantly to mind. Of course, they’re HoFers (or will be- hard to believe that there are many would not vote for Johnson), but that’s what we’re talking about here… Halladay does seem to be in position to do something similar, and if he does, I think that clearly marks him as a first-ballot guy. As it is, I agree with the article that he’s pretty likely already and he doesn’t have to do much more to ensure that his ticket is punched.
Posada should be in the close call category. He has ranked almost top 15-20 in every offensive category for a catcher, ALL TIME, not just this era. He played in an era where he was never the best catcher, which hurts him. Ivan Rodriguez was always ahead, and then as he got older, Joe Mauer emerged.
Also, for the great career starts, why wasn’t Robinson Cano mentioned? Most baseball experts call Pedroia and Cano their interchangeable best, and second best second basemen in the game today. Cano has shown a pre-steroid era career arch in terms of his power, and seems to get better each year. He’s still just 28 years old, and already has over 1,200 hits. If he keeps up his current pace, averaging 194 hits per year, over seven years, that puts him at 2,621 hits by age 35. Thats hall of fame territory for a second basemen.
Wow, hard to believe that a guy who batted in a lineup with other great offensive players for more than a decade, in the best era for offense in baseball history, has accumulated some of the best offensive counting stats for his position ever! How did he pull it off????
That has nothing to do with Posada’s case. If you understand advanced metrics, which apparently you don’t even though you’re here on FanGraphs, then you’d understand Posada’s case has nothing do with counting stats.
He still falls short in my book, but I encourage you to keep coming back to FanGraphs. Eventually, it all might make sense.
Nice assumption. Since advanced metrics are often about bringing context to a player’s stats, it’s funny that you presumably consider yourself an expert on those metrics and yet missed the context of my comment. Go read the second sentence of the original post, consider whether the author was more likely talking about rate or counting stats, and then apologize to me. Thanks.
Great analysis. A lot more fun to talk about something new than go over the same arguement over and over. Thanks!
Heres my list of current guys; Pujols, Chipper, Jeter, Pudge, Rivera, Halladay, Vlad, CC, Ichiro, J Santana, Miggy, King Felix, Verlander and Longoria. Has a shot; A Jones, Thome, Votto, McCann, Berkman, Beltran. Young guys off to a good start; Cano, J Upton, Kershaw.
Just too many guys not in this article for me to really take it too seriously. How do Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada (remember he is a shortstop) not at least get in the conversation (steroids aside). Ivan Rodriguez is just as linked to steroids as Giambi. Jorge Posada is the best catcher of the last 20 years not named Piazza or Rodriguez. Helton has got to get more of your consideration (he got a later start than many – went to college and was in the minors waiting on galarraga to move on, plus his career average is in excess of .320 for god sake). There are plenty of guys in the hall with shorter careers and shorter peaks – also plenty that didn’t get the same benefit of doubt (Belle, etc) You’ve also got to have David Ortiz & Paul Konerko. Also, since you belittle Johnny Damon’s career, I’d like to know your stance on Craig Biggio – very similar offensive stats. Inclusion of Beltran, Beltre in article really start opening the doors to more of the over 30 but still playing crowd (Ordonez, Dunn – still pretty young, A. Ramirez, C. Lee, A. Soriano, Holliday – still pretty young, Young)
Haha, yes, Giambi is just as linked as Pudge to steroids. Except for the whole part where Giambi admitted he took steroids, and no test or admission has ever linked Pudge. But yeah other than that, exact same connection.
Yeah Pudge is kind of like Tejada. He gets asked all the time, but conveniently forgets how to speak English when he gets asked.
Except that Tejada was in the Mitchell report. So really, Pudge is not like Tejada or Giambi. I probably wouldn’t have taken the time to pick on this if you hadn’t said “You’ve got to have David Ortiz & Paul Konerko.” No, you don’t got to have them. Ortiz, especially, is not got to have material unless he has 3 or 4 more good years.
Ortiz also tested positive for PEDs.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/07/30/ortiz.steroids/index.html
Tejada wasn’t in the Mitchell report. I also wasn’t saying that Konerko or Ortiz should be in the hall of fame (though I think they both have a shot if they finish their careers strongly). I was only saying that if you are going to have an article such as the above that gets into guys like Damon, Moyer, Beltran, etc than you can’t just completely exclude guys like Konerko and Ortiz from the discussion.
Kyle K, please point us to the article where Giambi admitted he took steroids.
Let me help you here. Giambi was called to testify before a Grand Jury. During his testimony that related to Barry Bonds and Balco, he supposedly admitted to using PEDs in the past, yet his testimony was and has never been made public.
It’s okay if you have made your assumptions that Giambi took PEDs (I believe that to be the case, too), and it is also okay if people make their assumptions that I-Rod has taken PEDs (I also believe that to be the case), but please pretend that I-Rod is some how pure while Giambi is not.
We both know that both of these players were PED users. I don’t hold any ill will toward any of these players, and I would vote for I-Rod for the HOF because I’m just not into the morality clause, but I do have a problem with people who want to boldly claim someone as innocent or better than another player, when it’s clear both were guilty.
Brian- it’s really not that hard to do research on something like whether or not Tejada was in the Mitchell report, but since you apparently didn’t do it, here you go: http://cache.deadspin.com/assets/images/11/2007/12/tejada-201.jpg
And yes, while the image is part of a Deadspin post, that’s from the actual Mitchell report.
RobM- you seem to have tried harder than Brian and I appreciate that. You’re still wrong, no matter how much you want to spin it. Besides the fact that the SF Chronicle reviewed the sealed grand jury testimony and reported that Giambi admitted to steroid use (if you think that’s not his testimony “being made public,” I don’t know what to tell you), there’s also this: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/yankees/2007-05-17-giambi-steroid-issue_N.htm?csp=34
So there you go. Look, I’m not a big Pudge fan (he never played for my favorite team) and it’s more than possible he took steroids at some point. At the same time, saying he’s as linked to steroids as Giambi is patently false. All the circumstantial evidence is there but the direct evidence is not. For Giambi, the direct evidence is there.
It’s not surprising that FG commenters are smarmy and snarky- lord knows I am- but the difference between me and commenters like Brian and RobM is that I don’t say provably incorrect things like “Tejada was not in the Mitchell Report” or “Giambi never publicly admitted using steroids and his grand jury testimony was never made public.” Sheesh.
Alright you got me, Tejada was in the Mitchell report, I was mistakenly looking at a list of 47 players mentioned in the Mitchell report that were not previously linked to steroids – my bad. Tejada was more known for being linked by Palmeiro. But do you really have to keep trying to convince everyone that pudge has not sufficiently been linked to steroids – this might help
http://blogcritics.org/sports/article/ivan-rodriguez-essentially-admits-steroid-use/
I think it’s enough that Canseco implicated him – think what you may of Canseco but everyone he’s accused thus far seems to be true.
I’m really not sure how this thread turned into a steroid debate – something I really have tried to tune out over the years. Let’s debate who is hall worthy based on the numbers, not who and who’s not on steroids and where and how it was reported – something we’ll really never know for sure. Keep telling yourself that Konerko and Ortiz don’t deserve to be in the debate – I guess you’re one of the ones who think Moyer does deserve induction.
Paul Konerko? Matt Kemp? Derrick Lee? Miguel Cabrera? Torii Hunter? Josh Hamilton?
Honestly, the Hall of Fame and its process are BS….and WAR is not the be all and end-all of stats any more than Win Shares and all the fielding prowess in the world isn’t going to make Adrian Beltre a Hall of Famer. I just don’t see how a 155 OPS+ guy like Manny is questionable (w/o roids) and a < than 110 OPS+ guiy like Beltre makes sense.
Rolen was a Hall of Fame talent (including plate prowess) before guys started running him over in baselines and Andruw Jones just fell off the face of the earth (date of birth issues?). Love Beltran as an absolute 5-tool ballplayer; however, his talents will never get the appreciation necessary for Cooperstown. Even though they both didn't take a walk, Guerrero is so superior to Dawson it's ridiculous and he gets in
I just think WAR plain over rates fielding….give me a lineup of the following iron gloves and where do we end up on September 30th:
Brock LF
Jeter SS
Allen 3B
Hornsby 2B
Sheffield RF
Berkman 1B
Manny DH
Piazza C
Bernie W. CF
Put together a lineup of the greatest fielders, and where are they on 9/30?
Devon White CF
Ozzie Smith SS
Barry Bonds LF
Kaline/Clements RF
Hernandez 1B
Brooks Robinson 3B
Bob Boone C
Mazeroski 2B
Probably finishing 20 games behind the shitty fielders
It’s a travisty what has happend to Andruw Jones. I can’t understand why some team won’t give him a chance to play everyday. Obviously he’s never going to hit well against both lefties and righties, but he’s not the only guy in the league that doesn’t yet plays everyday. He’s not the same defensive player he used to be but should still be better than 75% of the rest of the league. His power and run production is still very much present. He’d be a 25-30 homer, 90+ rbi guy on just about any team. Why no bottom feeder like the Royals/Astros/Mariners, etc give the guy a gig is beyond me.
You’re vastly underrating that all defense team, and the real determinant of where each team ended up would be the pitching staff, especially if you put Gibson, Maddux, and Buehrle on the all glove team.
I am assuming an “average” rotation. No Maddux or Gibson fielding, nor, for that matter, no Newcombe, Drysdale, Gibson, or Ferrell batting. And, once again, you and WAR are vastly over rating fielding prowess…
Put it this way, the difference between earned and unearned runs isn’t even that significant to justify a Beltre over an Allen (or even a lesser bat) at 3B
Good defense doesn’t just lower ‘unearned’ runs. It significantly lowers ‘earned’ runs, also.
And you include Manny as DH. Obviously since DHs don’t field, those should be equal as well, just like the pitchers.
That all glove team with Barry Bonds in the 3-hole looks pretty good to me.
Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Texeria need to be in the discussion of possible future HOF’ers.
Robinson Cano?
If Sandberg can get in just for being a Cub that pretty much leaves the door open. Not the best stats thats for sure,more like everyone liked him. Plus the fact his name was never
brought up in the steroid scandal.
Also why do we have to put someone in every year? Some players don’t belong, the hall mshould be for the best of the best.
I can’t fathom how anyone would not consider Ichiro a 1st ballot lock to the hall. I would be my right arm he gets in easily.
Ivan Rodriguez in the no-brainer category??? Sorry, but his obvious abnormal body changes and corresponding power decline with clear linkaged to the steroids scandal will put him on the outside looking in (even if he has the stats, which I’m not totally convinced about in the first place). Pudge was great in his prime, but so were Sammy, McGwire, etc. There was a reason for that!
Otherwise, I like the way you broke things up… it will certainly be interesting to see who gets in over time. Cheers.
Odd list. Ivan Rodriguez belongs in the “steroids” category, and Ichiro, Guerrero and Thome are absolute first-ballot locks. Here’s a similar column I wrote a little while back. http://www.bloggingmets.com/1976/whos-a-hall-of-famer/
very much agreed – odd list.
Earth to c wendt, WAR is your sole criteria for a hall of famer? Edgar is struggling to get in because he’s nowhere near 400 HR’S or 1500 RBI and wasn’t on any championship teams. Obviously Ortiz WAR is lower because of not playing the field. Martinez played about 600 games in the field. There are several players in the hall already with a lower WAR than Ortiz. When he’s done Ortiz will be comparable to McCovey and Stargell in career power stats. If closers get in, which they already have, then so should great DH’S. (By the way I believe Martinez should get in, but it has nothing to do with WAR.)
Agreed. There are lots of bad defenders in the hall. just because they played the field (and badly) and ortiz didn’t should not merit them more consideration.
Can someone please explain to me why Thome isn’t a shoo in? Forget WAR for a sec and look at the traditional stats. Only seven players have hit more home runs, 604, than him in Major League history. He has NEVER been linked to steroids and also happens to be one of the friendliest guys, from what I’ve heard, in the game today and is a philanthropist. Isn’t 500 home runs supposed to be a shoo in? As long as steroids weren’t involved? He should be first ballot.
I imagine he will eventually get in, later if not sooner. I think the knock against him is that he played in an era when being a slugging first baseman, hitting 52 homers in a season, 500 or 600 in a career, the things he has as positives on his resume, have become relatively common, at least more than they were in the fifties through the eighties. Also, never higher than fourth in MVP voting, one silver slugger, only once led the league in homers and never in RBIs (and he certainly never came close to leading the league in stolen bases or defensive WARs), only an all star in a quarter of his seasons, etc … he has never seemed like a breakaway elite player.
Personally, I think being consistently very good for a long time (eleven WARs between 3.2 and 5.5, to go along with the 7+ seasons in 95 and 02) is hall-of-famable. But I can also understand why he is perceived a slam-dunk lock.
The reason that IRod was put in the no-doubt instead of the roids section probably had more to do with the author not wanting to associate his name with such an assertion, clever of him to leave it to the comments section.
Great article, 300+ comments shows that people are interested in the topic.
Though i echo the Ichiro comments, he is actually underestimated by the sabr crowd, though I cannot fathom how Helton is also so horribly underated. His counting stats now eclipse Edgars (albeit at a lower OPS+), he has now many more PA than Walker (where the knock is a short career more than Coors) and is a good shot to rack up 1500 R/RBI
I think Damon has a good chance of going to the Hall eventually, 3,000 hits or not. He was an iconic player on numerous playoff teams, including NY and Boston, plus I strongly distrust the negative fielding numbers from early in his career. The consensus at the time was that he was a good fly catcher with an average arm (both of which degraded as he aged). Advanced fielding stats show him as negative two years (among several strong defensive stat years) at a time when the book on him was that he was very good defensively. Hall voters will likely go with the consensus … and probably should. If he gets to 3,000, he’s a strong, strong candidate.
And if the voters eventually get it right on Tim Raines, which I think they will, it will make Damon’s candidacy even stronger.
Jorge Posada is one of the primary cornerstone players of a multiple championship franchise; he will get strong consideration from the start and I think will eventually make the Hall, regardless of stats. His intangibles are off the charts. In an era when the discussion on many players will be how much they cheated, he’s Mr. Clean. If nothing else, he’ll be the next Phil Rizzuto candidate.
Any chance Cliff Lee makes it? His age will work against him, but he’s been worth 6-7 WAR each of the last 4 seasons, and could reasonably finish with 60+ WAR.
Colorado has a kid that plays a little bit of shortstop and sometimes hits the ball anyone think he might ever make it to Cooperstown.
What about Dan Uggla?? I realize he might fit into the not enough longevity category, but still he has accomplished feats at his position where no other 2B has done in the HISTORY OF BASEBALL!!!
Doesn’t that mean something? Shouldn’t he get credit for that? I realize there is credit – MVP’s, All-Star Selections, Silver Slugger’s, Gold Gloves, and then there’s credit as in an induction into Cooperstown…..would Uggla get the ultimate credit for his prowess and skills with the bat….
If Uggla played any other position then 2B I would consider him almost a no brainer as a “NO, he will not get in,” but considering he does play a position where his HR’s are extremely rare and impressive, in my book it does atleast bring up an interesting debate……I suppose you could put Jeff Kent into that debate as well, but I believe Kent put up his numbers over a longer period of time and during an era that baseball was plagued with steroids…..Uggla did relatively start during the tail end of that era, but he is still putting up gaudy numbers now, were the testing for steroids and policies are much more strict.
If you could please just comment on your feelings of Dan Uggla and how he projects in relation to the Hall of Fame.
Thank You for your time and patience, reading my “comment,” or short-story haha…
Sincerely,
Richard
Defensive metrics are definitely inconsistent, but I don’t see that as hurting Rolen too much. He’s widely considered one of the best defensive 3rd baseman of the last 50 years just from observation. The problem I see with Rolen is all the time and production he’s missed with injuries to his bum shoulder in the 2nd half of his career.
Concerning Vizquel, is Ozzie’s Smith defense really that much better to keep him out, because Vizquel’s offensive numbers are pretty even with the Wizard, and Vizquel also has a large collection of Gold Gloves for playing shortstop? Smith, as I’m pretty sure you recall, didn’t just get elected to the Hall but got in on his first ballot.
I don’t understand how Jorge Posada wouldn’t be mentioned, while others who have no chance whatsoever at being in the Hall of Fame made the lists. Catchers by nature of the position can’t really be compilers. If not, then there can’t be more than 5 compiling catchers in the sport’s history. Sabremetrically speaking, he’s a top 15 catcher and his counting stats (HRs, RBIs, Doubles) have only been achieved by Hall of Fame catchers.
(I will admit that I’ve always been a believer that catcher’s defense is overrated. No amount of high level defense will make people forget a guy is getting on base between 29 and 31 percent of the time.)
If ARod (and Bonds and Clements) don’t get in, then, for me, it kinda becomes the Hall of Who Gives A F. For me, those three define what the hall is supposed to mean, roids or not.
Also, it’s interesting to think about what current/recent managers and GMs deserve admission. I would say, definitely for Bobby Cox, Dusty Baker, Joe Torre, and Tony LaRussa, and maybe for Billy Beanne, John Schuerholz, Lou Pinella, and Walt Jocketty. (Torre would be a fine HOFer just for his playing career alone, and Dusty gets a big boost from his also).
I agree with this. I believe the “Holy Writers” cause to save the HoF from steroid users when they keep Bonds and Clemens out. If they actually do this, and make a stand to that degree … then I’ll at least believe they are two-faced or talking out of both sides of their mouth.
Of course doing that diminishes the HoF to a large degree, IMO. Basically the players with the most MVPs and CYAs wouldn;t be in the HoF. It’s the writers that gave them these awards, and it’s the same writers that won’t elect them to the HoF?
I think a discussion could be made about managers who continually had star players using PEDs and whether that should/could be used against them.
Any chance Dave Duncan will be the first ever pitching coach to get in?
Matt Cain.
No one has mentioned him, since he was placed in the correct category (good peak, but needs more longevity), but here’s hoping that Berkman will have a couple of more strong seasons and get some strong HOF consideration. His resume doesn’t have any standout features though (the 2011 World Series heroics help a bit), so I think that he will have a hard time making it.
Can someone explain why Jim Thome wouldn’t be in the HOF? Seems like a no-brainer everytime I look at the stats
I don’t think he will/should get any attention for the hall, but JD Drew should be in the ‘nice career, but not quite’ category