Who Is Tsuyoshi Wada?
According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Orioles have signed 30-year-old Japanese free agent Tsuyoshi Wada to a two-year, $8.15 million contract with an option for 2014. Though the left-handed Wada isn’t a well-known name or a young prospect, and he has flaws that may keep him from being a great starter in the American League, there are a few mitigating factors that make the deal interesting.
First, since he doesn’t have a player page, let’s represent his statistics here for your perusal. The ERA- numbers are thanks to league ERA supplied by Brian Cartwright, and the rest of the numbers are thanks to JapaneseBaseballPlayers.com.
| Year | Age | Wins | Losses | ERA | G | IP | SO | K/9 | ERA- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3.38 | 26 | 189 | 195 | 9.29 | 0.76 |
| 2004 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 4.35 | 19 | 128.33 | 115 | 8.06 | 0.96 |
| 2005 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 3.27 | 25 | 181.67 | 167 | 8.27 | 0.79 |
| 2006 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 2.98 | 24 | 163.33 | 136 | 7.49 | 0.81 |
| 2007 | 26 | 12 | 10 | 2.82 | 26 | 182 | 169 | 8.36 | 0.75 |
| 2008 | 27 | 8 | 8 | 3.61 | 23 | 162 | 123 | 6.83 | 0.94 |
| 2009 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 4.06 | 15 | 84.33 | 87 | 9.28 | 1.07 |
| 2010 | 29 | 17 | 8 | 3.14 | 26 | 169.33 | 169 | 8.98 | 0.78 |
| 2011 | 30 | 16 | 5 | 1.51 | 26 | 184.33 | 168 | 8.20 | 0.50 |
It’s a good resume, but not great, especially if you ignore his 2011 numbers. And last season carried with it a rather larger asterisk. Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) switched to a new ball, and the league ERA plummeted to 3.01. Sure, his ERA- was also the best of his career, and the ball was meant to be more like the American ball (heavier and with wider seams), but it’s still folly to get too excited about that number when the entire league was adjusting to new equipment.
Thanks to Patrick Newman’s NPBTracker, we can take a look at his arsenal visually.
Not quite Yu Darvish. He didn’t once crack 90 MPH last year — that one rogue dot actually registered an 89.97 on the gun if we want to be sticklers about it. He doesn’t really have a ten MPH difference between his fastball and his changeup, and his curve seems to be erratic. The forkball might be effective, but he doesn’t seem to love it. He’s been described as mostly a fastball/slider/change guy that depends on movement and location to keep batters off balance.
All of this paints a picture of a guy without a great deal of stuff. Patrick Newman felt something similar: “He’s a bit of a nibbler.”
And you have to add in some questions about durability. The 5’10″, 170-pound Wada has had cartilage surgery on his left elbow and missed half of 2009 with issues in the same joint, and never went far into games to begin with. In 2010, he averaged about six and a half innings per start, and last year, that number was just above seven. If he’s going to be a starter in the American League, he might not last six innings most days, a sentiment Newman agreed with.
So the Orioles gave a roster spot and $8 million to a 30-year-old pitcher with less-than-exciting stuff and durability issues? What is there to like about the deal then.
For one, some of these faults may not be as bad as they seem. Even after he missed time in 2009 with his elbow problems, he came back to put up one of the best seasons of his career in 2010. And even though he’s older, he’s also managed to keep his pitch counts down. His lower innings totals can be seen as a sign that he’s not ready for 200 innings, or they can be seen as a sign that he doesn’t have as many miles on his arm.
Also, Wada is known to be a ‘student of the game’ type. He studies scouting reports before every game and perhaps that has helped him cut his home runs every year in the league (down to 11 in 2010 from 26 in his rookie year according to Randy Fuller on NPBTracker).
But most importantly, the number — $8.15 million over two years — means that there are all sorts of ways that Wada can be productive for the Orioles.
Even if he ends up a reliever, he has a chance to return more than a win and a half over the next two years. 63 relievers have managed that feat, including some relievers that are somewhere between spot starter, long reliever and LOOGY status like Phil Coke. In a market place that awarded 32-year-old two-pitch reliever Jeremy Affeldt with a $5 million contract for the next season, Wada’s deal can’t be seen as terrible. And Koji Uehara shows that a Japanese reliever with a sub-90 MPH fastball and some durability issues has an even higher ceiling (2.7 WAR since 2010) than that.
And then, of course, there’s the chance that he can be even a league-average starter for 150 innings a year. Of the 74 pitchers that have put in 300 innings since 2010, only two — Bronson Arroyo and Nick Blackburn — failed to put up a win and a half.
We haven’t quite figured out our translations for the Japanese league, and the new ball just put a wrench in that process. But when you spend $8.1 million over two years (with a team option to boot), and have a pitcher that could be anything from a LOOGY to a serviceable starter, you’ve covered your bases. This deal is more likely to be a boon than a bane in Baltimore.
That rouge dot is actually his All-Star appearance from this season, when he only threw fastballs in an inning or two of work. Definitely not reflective of his actual velocity range.
that rogue dot, that is.
So you’re not a colorblind Frenchman?
Nope, not French.
There’s also a rogue rouge dot. The 74 MPH slider.
One aspect of Wada’s pitching that’s interesting and hard to quantify is that his throws a rising fastball which gets him a lot of whiffs for its less than mediocre velocity.
If he remains successful in the majors, Wada will probably look similar to Sid Fernandez, which is not bad at all.
That fastball is dirty. Looks much faster than it is. I’d love to see his splits vs lefties…
The Orioles are deep in average starters, so they can afford to take chances on durability. I think he’s a solid addition.
Anyone know why he abandoned the forkball 2/3rds of the way through the season? I would love to see a major leaguer bring back the forkball. Or the screwball.
Wait, they haven’t been using the same size ball? No wonder we can’t project anything accurately.
It’s not as huge a difference (in size per se), but pitchers definitely have been commenting on how they feel different when they pitch in Japan and then in the MLB. They say the balls there are now in line with what people in the rest of the world uses (as in MLB), but I think they are still manufactured in Japan.
Before, each ball club used to decide on which brand to use; now, they use the same one all across. That’s the major difference. As you see in the league stats, there has been an enormous cut in offense after the switch.
The rest of the world is moving to the NPB ball aka Mizuno-200. Cuba recently changed to Mizuno-200. Mizuno has a huge presence in international tournaments not hosted by the MLB aka WBC.
The ball is made in china. Players actually complained about uneven size of the baseballs. It was in one of those baseball TV show that is available on Youtube if you can understand Japanese.
A few important unconnected/factoids dots here suggest he may be a lot better than some people think:
* Okay, big asterisk for 2011 ERAs, but his 1.51 ERA as a starter is still a full run-and-a-half lower than the league as a whole, new equipment or not
* No, he doesn’t have Yu Darvish stuff, BUT with his 17-8, 3.14, 169 Ks in 2010, Wada beat out Darvish as Pacific League MVP
* Not many Japanese pitchers are ready to throw 200 innings right out of the gate; don’t think Wada lacks stamina, however, as he’s been known to throw 120 to 140 (!) innings in a game
“don’t think Wada lacks stamina, however, as he’s been known to throw 120 to 140 (!) innings in a game”
they really do play a different game over there– our games end after 9 innings with the most extreme extra inning games topping out aroudn 20… :)
“don’t think Wada lacks stamina, however, as he’s been known to throw 120 to 140 (!) innings in a game”
Most clubs in the Japanese leagues still use 6-man rotation, and there are substantially more off days compared to MLB (with a lot less long travels). So I’m not sure that the effect of pitch count on durability/stamina translate very well.
Sorry if this is explained somewhere I missed, but what is the x-axis in the pitch tracker?
http://www.npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=198
I was wondering about the same thing and found above. It’s ordered by pitching appearances, and each point appears to be the average velocity for that day.
Why are the Orioles spending so much money on a marginal middle reliever? They won’t matter for the next 5 years so they should be subtracting big league talent, not adding to it. That money would be better spent on player development and scouting. Looking at another year of fail in Baltimore.
They always spend a lot of money of relief pitchers. Gregg/Gonzo/Baez/Baez/Walker.
GM’s and managers come and go but the overpriced relief pitching stays.
its 4 million a year for someone who could start. not a high risk, you are just wrong
4mil for a spot starter/middling reliever or 4mil to improve facilities in another country or hire better scouts? The Orioles are going to blow next year and the year after. Who cares who is coming in in the 5th inning or starting sometimes?
Troll.
Not trolling. Tell me how it’s relevant to anything who starts or relieves for the Orioles in 2012 or 2013.
You could have said the same thing about Koji Uehara. But he turned into Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter.
If Wada turns out to be good, he’ll be another trade chip on the table.
I remember being skeptical about 34-year-old (at the time) Koji Uehara’s lack of velocity. But boy was that a great signing. And now the O’s are going after slightly harder throwing 26-year-old Chen Wei-Yin of the Chunichi Dragons. Glad to see them finally looking at the international market.
The idea that a team can put no money in the Major League roster just because they aren’t expected to contend is foolish. The Orioles still have to sell tickets to 81 games a year, they still have to try to maintain a grip on the fans in the Baltimore area that have not abandoned the team. Also, I would argue that signing Japanese players is a great tactic as it will improve the team’s global profile and when the next International star is making the leap to MLB he might consider the Orioles.
And they sure did more than just compete.