Why Francisco Cordero Doesn’t Have A Job

This off-season, Major League teams forced a quality group of proven closers into a game of musical chairs. There were too many guys with ninth inning experience on the market and not enough jobs to go around, which directly led to Ryan Madson‘s decision to take the last available closer’s job by signing a one year deal with Cincinnati. Madson’s move to the Reds likely closed the door on Francisco Cordero‘s ability to return to his prior team, and now that the music has stopped, he finds himself as the guy without a home.

It’s no coincidence that Cordero is the odd man out, however – his current employment status is simply a reflection of the fact that his performance last year threw up a ton of red flags about how much longer he’ll be an effective high leverage reliever.

While much was made about Heath Bell‘s decline in strikeout rate when he signed with the Miami Marlins, perhaps no one in the sport has had a more stark and consistent regression in their ability to miss bats than Francisco Cordero. Here’s his career strikeout rate, plotted against league average.

For those who prefer numbers, the series of data points since 2007 is 33.0%, 25.4%, 21.0%, 18.7%, and 15.3%. That’s a stark transformation, and one that rightfully should put some fear into any potential suitors.

Last year, 38 qualified relievers entered the game with an average leverage index of 1.5 or higher. This group contains most of the closers and a few of the elite setup men in baseball, giving us a pretty good feel for what kind of performances teams can expect to get from pitchers who are given this kind of role. The group, as a whole, posted a strikeout rate of 24.9%. With only a few exceptions, teams give their most important relief situations to pitchers who miss a lot of bats.

In fact, of those 38 high-leverage relievers, Cordero ranked 36th in strikeout rate, coming in only ahead of Sean Burnett and Matt Capps, neither of whom had particularly strong 2011 performances. When you’re hitting free agency and looking for a closer’s payday, you probably don’t want to be compared to either of those two pitchers.

Cordero’s continual decline in strikeout rate go along with what Eno Sarris wrote about on Tuesday, as the aging curve for relievers shows a pretty sharp drop-off in K% as a pitcher reaches his mid-30s. Cordero turns 37 years old in May, so while the magnitude of the drop-off might be more extreme than most, we shouldn’t be overly surprised that Cordero has lost his ability to throw the ball past opposing hitters, and his drop in velocity support the idea that his fastball just isn’t what it used to be. And, in fact, his pitch data shows that he’s entirely aware that he just can’t pitch like he used to.

From 2002 to 2010, Cordero threw his fastball 60.8% of the time. In fact, in 2010, he threw his heater 66.7% of the time. Last year, however, he all but abandoned the pitch, as his FB% fell to just 41.2%. He added a curveball to the mix and upped his slider usage a bit, but the most dramatic leap came in how often he threw his change-up. The adjustments to his pitch mix can easily be seen in these charts.

First, his 2010 pitch mix.

Now, 2011.

It’s easy to see the new breaking ball down in the right hand corner, but look at the massive increase in yellow blobs – those are his change-ups, and it became a go-to pitch for him after being nothing more than a a show-me offering earlier in his career.

This extra reliance on his change-up allowed him to stabilize his strikeout rate against left-handed batters, as his K% against LHBs actually went up slightly – from 17.7% to 18.3% – compared to 2010. However, the pitch isn’t nearly as effective against right-handed batters, and his K% plummeted from 19.4% to 12.8% against RHBs. Cordero’s change in pitch mix allowed him to stay maintain some level of effectiveness against opposite handed batters, but essentially made him a pitch-to-contact guy against same-handed hitters. And teams generally prefer not to hand their high leverage innings to guys with that kind of skillset.

Cordero’s traditional closer numbers – 37 saves and 2.45 ERA – look just fine, but applying any kind of scrutiny to his performance shows all kinds of reasons for concern. His results last season were propped up by a .214 batting average on balls in play, and while some relievers have shown a consistent ability to post low BABIPs, Cordero isn’t one of them – his career mark is just .294. With a lot of regression coming in his hit prevention and no reason to expect his strikeout rates to return to previous levels, Cordero’s expected future performance simply isn’t very good, and not only are teams wise to avoid handing him a lot of money, he’s probably not the kind of pitcher you really want to be giving high leverage innings to in 2012.

Scott Boras might see this off-season as “teams turning their backs on the closer’s role“, but in reality, teams just decided that they’d rather pay for future performance rather than past performance. Cordero might have the track record of a proven closer, but given how he pitched in 2011, he’s not going to be a shutdown reliever going forward. He’ll land a job with someone, but he’s going to have to settle for a setup role, and his days pitching the ninth inning are probably all but over.

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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

19 Responses to “Why Francisco Cordero Doesn’t Have A Job”

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  1. Brian says:

    The guy had a lousy 2010.

    But other than that, he pretty consistently puts up 2.0 +- .5 bWAR.

    I’d take a flyer on that for a year or two at 10 mil.

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    • Dave Cameron says:

      Cordero is the poster child for why using past run prevention to project future performance is a bad idea.

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    • manbearpig says:

      His 2011 was accomplished largely due to smoke and mirrors. Probably a bit of luck coupled with having an excellent defense behind him. His xFIP of 4.14 is probably more indicative of future performance than his 2.45 ERA. His BABIP was .214, which is completely unsustainable. Maybe he figured something out to get his GB% up 7% higher than his career average, but I’d be very reticent to give Coco more than $4mil AAV for 2 years.

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      • baty says:

        I think he did figure something out… A 7% spike in GB% and a career low in BB%. It’s the first time in his career that he wasn’t a fastball pitcher.

        He basically replaced about 20+% of his below average fastballs with more effective off-speed pitches. He was a totally different pitcher. As far as relief pitchers go, only a handful throw the fastball with less frequency. It’ll be interesting to see how a new team might handle him, and if his fastball continues to dwindle, will he become an even more extreme off speed pitcher.

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      • I think there’s too much causation inferred here anyway.

        His success at turning batted balls into outs, to me seems like more of a driving factor of the decline in K rates than a down turn in average fastball velocity.

        If you were throwing changeups and FB strikes and hitters were only getting hits 23% of the time when they made contact, why not continue to throw them? I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts off unlucky on batted balls in 2012, and suddenly starts throwing a little harder, trying for more K’s.

        Lincecum, for example, suffered approximately the same drop in average velocity, and saw his K’s go up.

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  2. AndyS says:

    Was like 95% confident this post was just going to say

    “because he’s not good.”

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  3. delv says:

    Congrats on kicking cancer in the nuts!

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  4. FFFFan says:

    Mr. Cameron,
    Congrats on the positive medical report. Best of luck to you.

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  5. Kevin says:

    Nice article. I agree he’s done as an elite closer. But I had no idea just how good a run he’s had over the last 10 years.

    From 2002-2011, Cordero is 2nd in Saves (327), behind Rivera of course (388). And he is 4th in WAR when I scan the saves leader chart. Rivera (23.6), K-Rod (16.4), Nathan (16.2), Cordero (15.6).

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  6. Patrick Brame says:

    Cordero performance was better last year because he changed his pitching style. Stats without analysis can be faulty. As a Reds fan I have watched Cordero pitch. He went from trying to get hitters to chase pitches when ahead to going after hitters. Hence less ks since some players would chase others would layoff working walks or having him give them a good pitch to hit. He also allowed one of the best defenses to work in his favor. His nibbling in the past would drive me crazy and lead to more runners and runs. (babip is better in pitcher counts)

    If you look at last year he imporved his swing and miss % from 8 to 10%. He also has reduced contract in and out of zone. He also relied less on FB. You could say he was K unlucky last year.

    I believe he could have a similiar type year this year (a little worse but still solid) . On another team I could see the babip go up

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  7. Astromets says:

    If he really cares about pitching the 9th inning, I bet the Mets would sign him for about 1.4 mil plus incentives

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  8. Larry Bernandez says:

    Just playing devil’s advocate here, there are elite level relievers that have managed to remain effective in to their forties, though not obviously at an elite level. Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes come to mind, if you want to expand the general idea to starters, how about Jamie Moyer? Smart pitchers, or those that maybe have a decent coach will change their approaches.

    If anything the fact that he added a somewhat effective curve would prove some ability to adapt to the loss of his fastball. Its better to be one of those types that scares the hell out of you as a fan when they bring him in but still manages to post good numbers, than just plain bad, isn’t it?

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    • walt526 says:

      Francisco Cordero, RHP
      Darren Oliver, LHP
      Arthur Rhodes, LHP
      Jaime Moyer, LHP

      One of these things is not like the others,
      One of these things just doesn’t belong,
      Can you tell which thing is not like the others
      By the time I finish my song?

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  9. Harv says:

    Any fan of the NL Central would tell you Francisco was getting close to the end. He always seemed to be more lucky than good the last two years

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  10. Josh says:

    congrats on the positive news, Dave.

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  11. Michael F says:

    Eh, honestly I think it’s mostly a supply and demand thing. If he and Papelbon were the only free agents, despite his pretty awful secondary stats, I’m sure he could have gotten a 2/$15.

    But since there are so many closers out there, especially ones with plus strikeout numbers, he’s kind of in purgatory.

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  12. Matt McWax says:

    I’m very happy with the upgrade to Madson, of course. I definitely appreciate that Cordero’s approach changed in accordance with his previously high walk rates (he averaged about 35 total walks over the last 3 years). He had 22 in 2011, knocking his whip down. He may have a similar season with great defense, but will likely regress from his 2011 numbers regardless. For the Reds, it was a season that made them feel a little better about his contract.

    I don’t know if Cordero wants to have a longer career – he’s made a lot of money – but he might be a guy who could stretch out and pitch in lower leverage innings if he can do what he did last year (throw 93 with decent offspeed stuff, throwing strikes).

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